Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

No-one seems to talk about that anymore. Is that because other things have overtaken it, or does he seem less senile than he did?

The first half of that sentence mostly, I'd say, but also, he has been measurably better the last two or three times I've seen him (especially his television address a week ago).

It's because it was always bullshit.

do you really not detect any cognitive decline at all btwn speeches/appearances of the past and now

he says "shoot for the legs" very crisply

how can you possibly listen to more than a minute of Joe Biden talking and conclude that his mental decline is "bullshit"

maybe he's always on edibles

how can you possibly listen to more than a minute of Joe Biden talking and conclude that his mental decline is "bullshit"

I’ve heard Biden talk lucidly for more than a minute but I have a feeling most people only watch the clips that get shared whenever he says something dumb

He's definitely capable of speaking lucidly for over a minute. He should do more of that and fewer of the ones with what could be construed as cognitive decline.

Shutting off the pipeline of shareable clips at source is the best approach for this

I don’t think I’ve heard Joe Biden speak since he said “this is a big fucking deal” to O at the ACA signing ceremony.

Re enthusiasm, I liked what Ta-Nehisi Coates said to Ezra Klein the other day:

We have this idea of elections as this kind of sacred ritual that one is undertaking, that you should be inspired and in love with with the candidate. But I often think people need to think about it more like taking out the trash. It’s a thing that you should do. Brushing your teeth is hygiene.

So when I think of who to vote for, the question isn’t how much of my own personal politics do I see in this person so much as how much do I think this person can actually be influenced by my politics or the politics of the people around me. So I can loudly say all the things Joe Biden was wrong on and feel no guilt about voting for him. Me casting a presidential vote is not the totality of my political action within a society.

otm

That you should, for some reason, fantasize that you're Sisyphus as you enter the voting booth is wholly separate from the importance and value of enthusiasm.

Most voters, and certainly most Democratic voters, do not view it as a sacred duty that they perform regularly. How do we know? Turnout.

Shutting off the pipeline of shareable clips at source is the best approach for this

when this is a real consideration there's a clear problem

TNC otm

If you're someone who reliably votes Democrat, enthusiasm for Biden doesn't matter. In the aggregate, driving turnout, it seems obvious to me that it does matter. Countering that, though, there's positive enthusiasm, voting for someone, and negative enthusiasm, voting someone out of office. With Biden, it'll no doubt come down to whether considerable evidence of the latter outruns sketchy evidence of the former. Right now, negative enthusiasm is more intense than ever. If that lasts through to November, I'm sure he'll win. If it wanes, not as sure.

And, again, I believe there'd be tangible enthusiasm for Kamala Harris as a VP with a decent chance of assuming the presidency (not on ILX, but out there). That would factor in.

If that lasts through to November

A big risk, because Donald Trump might well become less disgusting, reactionary, hateful, and hateable between now and November. I mean, there's a very real chance of it.

Obviously, that's not what I meant. Trump won't change; the intensity for getting him out of office could ebb enough to return things close to 2016 (when there was lots of intense hatred of him too--just not enough to win an election).

I want Biden to win! I don't know why trying to look at his deficiencies realistically should cause so much agitation.

the intensity for getting him out of office could ebb enough to return things close to 2016 (when there was lots of intense hatred of him too--just not enough to win an election)

I think the only way you'd be able to not tell the difference between 2016 and 2020 is if you're going out of your way to do so. But let me break down how I see the differences one more time:

• In 2016, Donald Trump was running against Hillary Clinton, against whom a nearly three-decade campaign of press and internet hatred had been waged, making her one of the least popular politicians in America, and she was still vastly more popular than he was. He won by the slimmest of margins in three states. In 2020, Donald Trump is running against Joe Biden, who was the VP to an incredibly popular president and is generally well regarded by journalists and the population at large. He is running behind Biden in all three of the states that carried him to victory last time.
• in 2016, Donald Trump was a relatively unknown quantity; he could posture as a Smart Businessman who was rich and famous and dumbasses would say, "Well, maybe we should give him a shot - what's the worst that could happen?" In 2020, the worst has happened.
• Recession
• Plague
• Vast protests
• 2018 midterm elections as test run for overwhelming "fuck you Donald Trump" vote

The question no one who says "Trump's gonna be reelected for sure!" can ever answer is a simple one: Which group of voters has Donald Trump increased his share of since 2016? Show me the numbers, that's all I ask.

I hope you're right, but I think my previous posts were far from "Trump's gonna be reelected for sure!" They weren't really even close. Your last couple, though, do seem to veer in the direction of "Trump's not going to be reelected for sure!"

Biden doesn’t solve any of Clinton’s problems with Latino and young voters and it remains to be seen if African-American turnout and vote share rebounds to even 2012

If protests and violence continue through the summer, are the old whites that Biden has appealed to going to stick with him?

So...your theory is that he's going to lose young voters, black voters, Latin voters, and old voters? Please explain his lead in the polls, then. Seriously - explain it to me in a way that's congruent with your "he sucks and will lose every category of voter to Donald Trump" theory.

There are no sure things in a country as close to full-on societal collapse as the US, but it doesn't look good for Trump at all. I mean, seriously, point me to one optimistic sign.

point me to one optimistic sign

The election is in November. That's all I've got tho.

My theory of the election is overwhelmingly based on negative partisanship. Everyone that does not worship Donald Trump hates him, and there weren't enough worshippers to win him a popular vote majority last time - he had to squeak through with ultra-narrow electoral victories in three states that he's currently not winning in. The number of people who hate him has grown; the number of people who worship him has not. It's either remained stable, or shrunk slightly. That's the game, as far as I can see.

Things are awful right now, and if the election were tomorrow, it wouldn't be close.

Five months from now--weirdly, almost because things are so awful--all I'm trying to be realistic about is a perfect storm of events where Trump creeps back in: economy on the rebound, COVID under control (maybe--though not necessarily--a vaccine), the intensity of the protests long gone. The chance of all that happening is a very thin reed; all I'm doing is not totally discount it. Trump will be exactly the same Trump; the intensity of this moment, right now, will not be the same.

It's easy to see, looking back, how Biden is in much better position today than Clinton was in 2016. But in the moment, in 2016, I'm pretty sure everyone here was just as convinced Trump had zero chance.

So...your theory is that he's going to lose young voters, black voters, Latin voters,

and old voters?

Please explain his lead in the polls, then.

Biden’s taking votes away in the suburbs and with old whites... who are not a reliable bet to stay on side. Why? Because they’re more comfortable with the GOP. How do we know? Because that’s who they always vote for.

Maybe they stick with Biden through November. I think he’s a better than 50/50 bet to win in November.

Or maybe they go back to Trump in the face of continued angry young POC on the news every night. In which case, not gaining vote share and turnout with young people, Latino voters, African-American voters creates a replay of 2016.

How did 2016 turn out?

The election is in November.

fOr nOw

You should join us in the containment thread, milo!

I don’t think I’ve heard Joe Biden speak since he said “this is a big fucking deal” to O at the ACA signing ceremony.

― all cats are beautiful (silby), Monday, June 8, 2020 1:24 AM (three hours ago)

you should check out his inspiring message the other day that brutal, uncontrolled cops would be trained to shoot unarmed protestors in the legs, instead of the heart, under a Joe Biden presidency. truly stunning oratory, that underscores his appreciation of the first amendment.

If I hear a politician speak even a few words I get hives. I avoid it assiduously.

Which group of voters has Donald Trump increased his share of since 2016?

Although your analysis makes good sense to me as a basis for cautious optimism, the people who gravely fear Trump will be reelected were also taught by 2016 to mistrust polling numbers as grounds for predicting outcomes. While Trump's best ally is vote suppression in every possible form, Biden's best ally is fierce revulsion from Trump driving voter motivation and swamping all efforts at vote suppression.

Complacency, apathy, or despair are all forms of self-suppression that voters may indulge in. Therefore they are all friendly to a Trump victory and should be viewed as such.

unperson is bringing some otmness here

I am a POC enthusiastic about voting in November, unenthusiastic about Biden, psyched about voting Trump and the GOP out.

There. See? Easy.

If only you were the actual center of the universe, we could rest easy.

That's what you consistently miss, milo: we've never had it easy, nor have we ever rested.

kind of a rich comment from milo there but I've come to expect it

I just can't see the idea that African-Americans will not be eager to vote out Republicans in November, especially Mr. "Good People on Both Sides".

I have little or no insight into how the latinx vote will turn out, other than what Lord Alfred provides me. I know that community has a good proportion of devout Catholics who often tend toward conservatism, especially around abortion, but my basic sense of the church, as seen among my own relatives, is that Trump cannot be viewed with anything but alarm by the majority of devout Catholics.

However much Trump has pandered to the pro-Israel, pro-Likud Jewish vote, if I were Jewish and I took a good long look at his alt-right, neo-Nazi, white supremacist followers, I'd get off my death bed to vote against him.

The 2020 election is winnable. It's not a foregone conclusion that Biden will win. Wow that was hard.

can't believe election day is still 9 years away

Like if you can't parse the diff between enthusiasm in voting for a candidate and enthusiasm to vote against a candidate, well then yr fuckin dumb

we've never had it easy, nor have we ever rested.

What a strange follow-up to a complete dismissal of the very concept that voter enthusiasm might matter or that Joe Biden might not make great inroads with communities that didn't turn out effectively in 2016. Kinda feels like "well I don't like him and I vote!" is resting easy.

Why?

(unless you're interested in gotcha points, in which case I have no interest)

would be interesting if pollsters would explicitly ask "are you enthusiastic to vote against Trump?" along with the other enthusiasm questions. I suspect the percentage would be high!

Why does a haughty dismissal of negative thoughts feel like "resting easy" for November?

Given the title of this thread and its genesis, it's a weird place to expect nothing but poz vibes.

What kind of response are you looking for, Milo?

Seriously, what would suffice for you as an adequate response to your earnest expressions of concern that Biden sucks and that people aren't enthusiastic, in a positive sense, about voting for him?

The point has been raised. The point has been acknowledged. The point is well taken. There are no enthusiastic Biden stans here. Like, literally no one here wanted Biden to be the nominee; literally no one here thought he was the best choice. Literally no one here thinks he is without significant problems, or that his path is assured or that his victory will be easy.

"Here's this fairly serious person raising the question of voter enthusiasm"/"Here's what we know of voter enthusiasm over the last four races and how it might have impacted the outcome"/etc.
is met with a "oh you childish peons, voting is a duty and everyone knows this and how can you even think that the candidate matters."

As I said above, it's pretty obvious that not everyone - and especially not Democratic constituencies - agrees that it's a sacred duty to hold your nose and do your supposed civic duty. Hence turnout being of supreme importance to Democratic candidates election after election.

"Here's why voter enthusiasm doesn't matter" is a response - "here's why I'm special and vote every time even though I'm not enthusiastic" is just being a dick.

is met with a "oh you childish peons, voting is a duty and everyone knows this and how can you even think that the candidate matters."

I'm very curious to know who you are quoting here. (checks) Oh, you're quoting yourself!

milo -

You're only taking positive voter enthusiasm into account. You're not reckoning with negative voter enthusiasm, which is clearly the most powerful motivating force in US politics now, and has been steadily growing in importance since Reagan. Elections are about negativity, both in the "fuck that guy, I'm voting for the other guy" sense and the "fuck 'em both, pass the bong" sense. Last time out, the negatives were on Trump's side - people who said they disliked both candidates broke strongly for him. This time out, people who tell pollsters that they dislike both candidates are breaking even more strongly for Biden.