Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

My theory of the election is overwhelmingly based on negative partisanship. Everyone that does not worship Donald Trump hates him, and there weren't enough worshippers to win him a popular vote majority last time - he had to squeak through with ultra-narrow electoral victories in three states that he's currently not winning in. The number of people who hate him has grown; the number of people who worship him has not. It's either remained stable, or shrunk slightly. That's the game, as far as I can see.

Things are awful right now, and if the election were tomorrow, it wouldn't be close.

Five months from now--weirdly, almost because things are so awful--all I'm trying to be realistic about is a perfect storm of events where Trump creeps back in: economy on the rebound, COVID under control (maybe--though not necessarily--a vaccine), the intensity of the protests long gone. The chance of all that happening is a very thin reed; all I'm doing is not totally discount it. Trump will be exactly the same Trump; the intensity of this moment, right now, will not be the same.

It's easy to see, looking back, how Biden is in much better position today than Clinton was in 2016. But in the moment, in 2016, I'm pretty sure everyone here was just as convinced Trump had zero chance.

So...your theory is that he's going to lose young voters, black voters, Latin voters,

and old voters?

Please explain his lead in the polls, then.

Biden’s taking votes away in the suburbs and with old whites... who are not a reliable bet to stay on side. Why? Because they’re more comfortable with the GOP. How do we know? Because that’s who they always vote for.

Maybe they stick with Biden through November. I think he’s a better than 50/50 bet to win in November.

Or maybe they go back to Trump in the face of continued angry young POC on the news every night. In which case, not gaining vote share and turnout with young people, Latino voters, African-American voters creates a replay of 2016.

How did 2016 turn out?

The election is in November.

fOr nOw

You should join us in the containment thread, milo!

I don’t think I’ve heard Joe Biden speak since he said “this is a big fucking deal” to O at the ACA signing ceremony.

― all cats are beautiful (silby), Monday, June 8, 2020 1:24 AM (three hours ago)

you should check out his inspiring message the other day that brutal, uncontrolled cops would be trained to shoot unarmed protestors in the legs, instead of the heart, under a Joe Biden presidency. truly stunning oratory, that underscores his appreciation of the first amendment.

If I hear a politician speak even a few words I get hives. I avoid it assiduously.

Which group of voters has Donald Trump increased his share of since 2016?

Although your analysis makes good sense to me as a basis for cautious optimism, the people who gravely fear Trump will be reelected were also taught by 2016 to mistrust polling numbers as grounds for predicting outcomes. While Trump's best ally is vote suppression in every possible form, Biden's best ally is fierce revulsion from Trump driving voter motivation and swamping all efforts at vote suppression.

Complacency, apathy, or despair are all forms of self-suppression that voters may indulge in. Therefore they are all friendly to a Trump victory and should be viewed as such.

unperson is bringing some otmness here

I am a POC enthusiastic about voting in November, unenthusiastic about Biden, psyched about voting Trump and the GOP out.

There. See? Easy.

If only you were the actual center of the universe, we could rest easy.

That's what you consistently miss, milo: we've never had it easy, nor have we ever rested.

kind of a rich comment from milo there but I've come to expect it

I just can't see the idea that African-Americans will not be eager to vote out Republicans in November, especially Mr. "Good People on Both Sides".

I have little or no insight into how the latinx vote will turn out, other than what Lord Alfred provides me. I know that community has a good proportion of devout Catholics who often tend toward conservatism, especially around abortion, but my basic sense of the church, as seen among my own relatives, is that Trump cannot be viewed with anything but alarm by the majority of devout Catholics.

However much Trump has pandered to the pro-Israel, pro-Likud Jewish vote, if I were Jewish and I took a good long look at his alt-right, neo-Nazi, white supremacist followers, I'd get off my death bed to vote against him.

The 2020 election is winnable. It's not a foregone conclusion that Biden will win. Wow that was hard.

can't believe election day is still 9 years away

Like if you can't parse the diff between enthusiasm in voting for a candidate and enthusiasm to vote against a candidate, well then yr fuckin dumb

we've never had it easy, nor have we ever rested.

What a strange follow-up to a complete dismissal of the very concept that voter enthusiasm might matter or that Joe Biden might not make great inroads with communities that didn't turn out effectively in 2016. Kinda feels like "well I don't like him and I vote!" is resting easy.

Why?

(unless you're interested in gotcha points, in which case I have no interest)

would be interesting if pollsters would explicitly ask "are you enthusiastic to vote against Trump?" along with the other enthusiasm questions. I suspect the percentage would be high!

Why does a haughty dismissal of negative thoughts feel like "resting easy" for November?

Given the title of this thread and its genesis, it's a weird place to expect nothing but poz vibes.

What kind of response are you looking for, Milo?

Seriously, what would suffice for you as an adequate response to your earnest expressions of concern that Biden sucks and that people aren't enthusiastic, in a positive sense, about voting for him?

The point has been raised. The point has been acknowledged. The point is well taken. There are no enthusiastic Biden stans here. Like, literally no one here wanted Biden to be the nominee; literally no one here thought he was the best choice. Literally no one here thinks he is without significant problems, or that his path is assured or that his victory will be easy.

"Here's this fairly serious person raising the question of voter enthusiasm"/"Here's what we know of voter enthusiasm over the last four races and how it might have impacted the outcome"/etc.
is met with a "oh you childish peons, voting is a duty and everyone knows this and how can you even think that the candidate matters."

As I said above, it's pretty obvious that not everyone - and especially not Democratic constituencies - agrees that it's a sacred duty to hold your nose and do your supposed civic duty. Hence turnout being of supreme importance to Democratic candidates election after election.

"Here's why voter enthusiasm doesn't matter" is a response - "here's why I'm special and vote every time even though I'm not enthusiastic" is just being a dick.

is met with a "oh you childish peons, voting is a duty and everyone knows this and how can you even think that the candidate matters."

I'm very curious to know who you are quoting here. (checks) Oh, you're quoting yourself!

milo -

You're only taking positive voter enthusiasm into account. You're not reckoning with negative voter enthusiasm, which is clearly the most powerful motivating force in US politics now, and has been steadily growing in importance since Reagan. Elections are about negativity, both in the "fuck that guy, I'm voting for the other guy" sense and the "fuck 'em both, pass the bong" sense. Last time out, the negatives were on Trump's side - people who said they disliked both candidates broke strongly for him. This time out, people who tell pollsters that they dislike both candidates are breaking even more strongly for Biden.

I'm not reckoning with a thing that's not been polled, no, because that's basically just a gut feeling everyone hates Trump enough to get Biden over the line. Everyone thought that about 2016 too. The narrative now is that people didn't take him seriously and he wasn't seen as that revolting but he was hated so much that the GOP establishment was making last ditch efforts to get him off the ticket at the RNC.

As I said, the poll numbers are pumped by older, richer and whiter voters acting ahistorically. Maybe that lasts but it's a very dicey proposition - we have five months of potential unrest ahead of us and many opportunities for those people to seek the comfort of their usual authoritarian party.

Biden is recording a message for the funeral now rather than attending and "disrupting."

This idea of "negative voter enthusiasm" is a variation on the usual "vote for us, we're not the other guy" strategy and that shit just doesn't work. You win by making a positive case for your candidacy, your party and your ideology.

Idk negative enthusiasm seemed to trump positive in bernie vs biden

I'm not reckoning with a thing that's not been polled, no

But it has been polled. There are entire articles about it. You could look for them, if you were interested.

There’s negative partisanship, but that mostly explains die-hards after the fact (such as why Trump’s numbers are so strong inside the party).

“Negative voter enthusiasm” is an entirely made up phrase.

So is any phrase. Made up, that is.

it's pretty obvious that not everyone - and especially not Democratic constituencies - agrees that it's a sacred duty to hold your nose and do your supposed civic duty. Hence turnout being of supreme importance

Okay, noted. And the solution is...

The recommendations are...

The right course of action is...

Have candidates that excite people to vote for them.

And that solution can be brought into play in the current electoral environment... how?

There were other candidates. They are no longer viable for reasons both good and bad.

Personally I am fresh out of time machines.

What do you suggest now, given the real-world possibilities in front of us?

Assassinate Joe Biden.

Have candidates that excite people to vote for them.

Bored now. Leaving now. You "win."

Ok get right on that milo

But again, this isn’t the poz vibez thread. Joe Biden is garbage, Joe Biden will always be garbage and the fact that he’s a pretty shit candidate is on the heads of your party machinery if he loses.

Noted. What a refreshing piece of information you have given this thread, which was previously devoid of that perspective. Truly you have spoken truth and now our eyes are opened due to these new and surprising facts that you have dropped upon our naive and uneducated minds

boe jiden

if posting the same thing over and over again were a crime we'd all be in the slammer

Ok fair point silby, lol

dental plan
lisa needs braces

leg-shoot plan
lisa needs bidens

ok lol

Milo a confirmed CIA agitator

Ugh this thread is like wandering over to a conversation at a social gathering, hearing the convo and regretting the approach, and quietly backing away