Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

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stonks

mookieproof, Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:01 (three months ago) link

more like stanks, amirite?

Life is a banquet and my invitation was lost in the mail (j.lu), Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:04 (three months ago) link

to what extent is the massive fed preemptive action currently underway reducing/not reducing the risk from that?

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:14 (three months ago) link

lol at all of this

last week: stocks rise 5% on covid optimism!!!

*5 days pass, in which absolutely nothing happens that was not already widely expected*

stocks fall 5% on glum covid outlook!!!

our god is a might god (Karl Malone), Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:23 (three months ago) link

supposedly the huge gains of the last couple months were predicated on the fed taking strong action and giving investors confidence that the world would not explode

which always seemed like bullshit to me. i don't think it's a coordinated effort or anything, but the last few weeks have just seemed like willingly suspending disbelief to pump the market back in and squeeze the last juices out of it before manufacturing slowdowns and a collapsing real estate market become so obvious that even investors have to acknowledge it.

our god is a might god (Karl Malone), Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:26 (three months ago) link

to what extent is the massive fed preemptive action currently underway reducing/not reducing the risk from that?

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, June 11, 2020 10:14 AM (eighteen minutes ago)

idk, but if you read the regulations/descriptions of the PPP program, it says that the loans can be resold on the secondary market ... so, if I was a cartoonish pessimist, I would suggest that the next "sub-prime" crisis will be risky PPP loans ... they have now reduced the portion of the loan that has to be used for payroll from 75% to 60% and given people/businesses 24 weeks to qualify for forgiveness as opposed to the original 8 weeks.

sarahell, Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:38 (three months ago) link

(2) getting into the morass of accounting details is how they getcha

ooooooooh!!!! do tell!

sarahell, Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:39 (three months ago) link

use of "stonks" really peaking this past month.

Yerac, Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:40 (three months ago) link

xp -- wait really? Why the fuck would anyone buy a loan that is meant to be forgiven?

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:41 (three months ago) link

how much truth is there in the apocalyptic "soon people will have to pay all their back rent/mortgage payments and everything will crash and burn" articles that are coming out now?

sarahell, Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:42 (three months ago) link

xp -- wait really? Why the fuck would anyone buy a loan that is meant to be forgiven?

idk? it's there in the text of the law though. Maybe not all the loans are intended to be forgiven? I am guessing that at minimum, it is a way for banks to free up more capital in the short-term to do more lending?

sarahell, Thursday, 11 June 2020 17:44 (three months ago) link

perhaps they will be unforgiven?

voltmeter said i had potential (Sufjan Grafton), Thursday, 11 June 2020 18:13 (three months ago) link

i really hope these redditors/robinhood first time account people that I have read so much about the past month don't lose their shirt.

Yerac, Thursday, 11 June 2020 18:18 (three months ago) link

supposedly the huge gains of the last couple months were predicated on the fed taking strong action and giving investors confidence that the world would not explode

which always seemed like bullshit to me. i don't think it's a coordinated effort or anything, but the last few weeks have just seemed like willingly suspending disbelief to pump the market back in and squeeze the last juices out of it before manufacturing slowdowns and a collapsing real estate market become so obvious that even investors have to acknowledge it.

― our god is a might god (Karl Malone), Thursday, June 11, 2020 10:26 AM (forty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

it's impossible to know if this pullback will start the end-of-february-esque retest of lows or will start the end-of-april-esque retest of some highs.

voltmeter said i had potential (Sufjan Grafton), Thursday, 11 June 2020 18:18 (three months ago) link

i really hope these redditors/robinhood first time account people that I have read so much about the past month don't lose their shirt.

― Yerac, Thursday, June 11, 2020 1:18 PM (nineteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I was just reflecting on what a terrible feature of our system it is that people feel like they need to wait around for others' pain in order to get on the american dream latter - specifically in response to a reddit post that was hoping for widespread foreclosures so he could buy a house, a horrible sentiment yet sort of understandable.

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 11 June 2020 18:38 (three months ago) link

And then on top of that, the system throws a lot of headfakes at you

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 11 June 2020 18:38 (three months ago) link

because in america someone has to lose in order for you to feel like you can gain.

Yerac, Thursday, 11 June 2020 18:39 (three months ago) link

*american dream ladder

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 11 June 2020 18:41 (three months ago) link

go, shitbin, go

stocks rise 5% on covid optimism!!!
*5 days pass, in which absolutely nothing happens that was not already widely expected*
stocks fall 5% on glum covid outlook!!!

it's not even as compelling as mass psychosis

brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 11 June 2020 19:16 (three months ago) link

The state police said it will be an 8 hour wait from the back of the line to speak to a state employee about unemployment. pic.twitter.com/plGONcpS6n

— Daniel Desrochers (@drdesrochers) June 17, 2020

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 17 June 2020 17:16 (three months ago) link

Trump country.

Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 17 June 2020 17:28 (three months ago) link

stocks up on reports that unemployment line is now less than 16 hours long

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 17 June 2020 18:03 (three months ago) link

jeez, what state is that?

Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Wednesday, 17 June 2020 19:15 (three months ago) link

i think kentucky (the tweeter lists kentucky.com as his website and reports for the lexington herald leader)

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 17 June 2020 19:16 (three months ago) link

oh yeah. they've been dismantling their unemployment system for a decade iirc.

Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Wednesday, 17 June 2020 19:27 (three months ago) link

a sad coda to that unemployment line in Frankfort, KY yesterday:

Hundreds of Kentucky residents waited in line for as long as 10 hours outside a makeshift unemployment office at the State Capitol in Frankfort on Wednesday in hopes of getting paid for claims that, for some, dated back as far as March.

But in the end, a handful who had stood in line all day were turned away, prompting despair and anger, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports.

“Maybe, maybe 25 people left to be seen and they turn us away,” resident Deborah McLaughlin told the paper.

Hundreds more who arrived after the line was cut off were turned away, as well. The state’s computer system shuts down at 7 p.m. and cannot further process claims, officials told those in line.

sorry everyone, but you know computers. they don't work after 7 pm, gotta shut them down.

time is running out to pitch in $5 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 18 June 2020 23:38 (three months ago) link

Yes, I am concerned the longer this goes on, the more losses banks will face. Large banks have more capital than they had before the 08 crisis, but not enough. 1/2

— Neel Kashkari (@neelkashkari) June 19, 2020

Dirty Epic H. (Eric H.), Friday, 19 June 2020 20:20 (three months ago) link

They should stop paying dividends and raise capital to increase their resiliency. They can essentially inoculate themselves from COVID and should do so now. 2/2

— Neel Kashkari (@neelkashkari) June 19, 2020

Dirty Epic H. (Eric H.), Friday, 19 June 2020 20:20 (three months ago) link

i smell a moral hazard

if only these banks had some real skin in the game

mookieproof, Saturday, 20 June 2020 03:16 (three months ago) link

Senior Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett is leaving. A second senior advisor, Tomas Philipson, is leaving, too:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/24/white-house-economist-philipson-departure/

And the market is getting skittish again:

I hope everyone is watching this. There’s not much left they can do before the bottom falls out of the market.https://t.co/UkJXeUYUhq

— Angry Staffer (@AngrierWHStaff) June 25, 2020

I don't know, but I think the economy might be in pretty bad shape.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 25 June 2020 17:43 (two months ago) link

Has anyone else read this? Not any new information, really, but pulls together a fair amount of date, synthesizes it, and makes its case pretty well...

https://newleftreview.org/issues/II123/articles/robert-brenner-escalating-plunder?fbclid=IwAR2hj5SYEErcjs0rW6YHtMFpjX5laUuYQi5DMIknsoFY1qib1LweqyhzW3s

blue light or electric light (the table is the table), Thursday, 25 June 2020 19:00 (two months ago) link

Has anyone else read this? Not any new information, really, but pulls together a fair amount of date, synthesizes it, and makes its case pretty well...

https://newleftreview.org/issues/II123/articles/robert-brenner-escalating-plunder?fbclid=IwAR2hj5SYEErcjs0rW6YHtMFpjX5laUuYQi5DMIknsoFY1qib1LweqyhzW3s🕸


Yep. Very good read. Basically capitalism now cannot survive without an unlimited government back stop. This can’t be sustainable.

Boring, Maryland, Friday, 26 June 2020 02:54 (two months ago) link

i think from now on sic should post the little spiderweb after those, like he is spiderman trying to stop up the web channels from funneling our information out

j., Friday, 26 June 2020 03:34 (two months ago) link

xp it was ever thus. governments create and sustain markets etc etc

methinks dababy doth bop shit too much (m bison), Friday, 26 June 2020 04:00 (two months ago) link

Cirque du Soleil filing for bankruptcy, so there's your silver lining.

brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 2 July 2020 19:20 (two months ago) link

lol it's like the backbone of the economy of Quebec

Boring, Maryland, Thursday, 2 July 2020 22:50 (two months ago) link

but they infected us too

brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 2 July 2020 23:19 (two months ago) link

In case you were wondering- this is a high number

32% of U.S. households missed their July housing payments https://t.co/fR9ZExbH1M

— ≡l≡v≡nth (@3L3V3NTH) July 8, 2020

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 19:12 (two months ago) link

the number of evictions going through right now must be astronomical

Temporary Erogenous Zone (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 19:12 (two months ago) link

Evictions for non-payment of rent are effectively still under a moratorium in Seattle, I’m pretty sure. (That is, financial hardship due to covid was made an acceptable defense for tenants in eviction proceedings.) no idea what the impact of that all is.

all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 19:17 (two months ago) link

it's gonna be a scary fucking winter

Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 19:20 (two months ago) link

are some federal student loan payments still suspended?

honestly i've been to terrified to check for months, and the service i've been forced to use is so terrible at notifying me about anything that i've heard nothing about it from them either.

time is running out to pitch in $5 (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 19:48 (two months ago) link

Can someone explain the argument against a rent and mortgage moratorium until the end of COVID?

DJI, Wednesday, 8 July 2020 19:50 (two months ago) link

the people who own the property would make less money

time is running out to pitch in $5 (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 19:52 (two months ago) link

so it's up to the people who don't own the property to lose money instead

time is running out to pitch in $5 (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 19:52 (two months ago) link

Ask not...

DJI, Wednesday, 8 July 2020 19:58 (two months ago) link

I mean, there would presumably be cascading effects throughout the entire economy and financial system of a magnitude never seen before. But I imagine/hope that fed action could stem some of that?

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 20:01 (two months ago) link

It probably makes more sense for govt action to cover mortgages/rent on the front end and/or backstop them on the back end rather than just say "you don't have to pay and someone else gets stuck holding the bag"

longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 20:02 (two months ago) link

in the UK a 3-month eviction ban has been extended until the end of August.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ban-on-evictions-extended-by-2-months-to-further-protect-renters

but.... what then? there is no way that people are going to be able to afford the arrears. the government just says landlords and tenants should 'work together'. LOLLLLL

Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 8 July 2020 20:10 (two months ago) link

the big problem that a lot of people here are fearing is that once the moratorium ends, people will be stuck with too much debt that needs to be repaid right away ... so there are people arguing, and I believe even legislation being proposed, to forgive rent/mortgage payments during the covid period. ... mortgages are somewhat easier to deal with from a policy perspective because the concept of "refinancing" already exists ... the outstanding payments could just be spread out through the loan period or the loan could be extended.

Rent is tougher ... but also more crucial because it affects mostly low-income or lower-income people compared to owners. ... I feel like one "moderate" approach would be to give rental property owners the equivalent of PPP loans to replace the lost rental income, and extend the moratorium on rent for like, a long time, at least until the end of the year. My more progressive approach would be to limit the class of property owners eligible for these loans based on income -- like, if we are talking about huge corporations ... no loans ... if we are talking about the little old lady who makes $30k off her rental and her only other income is social security ... then, yes.

sarahell, Wednesday, 8 July 2020 20:18 (two months ago) link


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