outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

everyone knows they're going to blame the spikes on the protesters anyway

(and like all effective lies, it'll have a grain of truth to it. i have no idea what % of new cases will be attributable to the protests. more than 0%. much less than 100%, that's for sure, and less than the effect of pushing to re-open everywhere possible as soon as possible in red states (and also some blue). but in the end it'll be 100% the protesters fault, regardless)

But not the fault of the people protesting the shut-downs.

Of course not, because they were protected by their guns

America has just given up on this

where Trump goeth, most follow, even his 'rivals'

gotta stay current!

One "promising" thing to note: as much as we have new (or recurring) spikes in hotspots, the number of fatalities continues to steadily decrease. What happened in the NYC metro area was on a vastly different scale than the rest of the country.

wasn't there a French study a couple weeks ago suggesting that the virus was mutating into something less deadly?

https://www.cuimc.columbia.edu/news/heartburn-drug-may-have-potential-against-covid-19

This is encouraging. They only studied people who were receiving famotidine during their hospital stays for the normal reason - heartburn/acid reflux. I wonder if a higher dosage might have a more pronounced effect.

Also, heartburn pills are weird!

Like, Tagamet is also used to get rid of warts!

i personally use famotidine regularly with high-dose ibuprofen.

The Dutch Lung Foundation (Longfonds) did a survey on recovered patients. As reported in dutchnews.nl:

Some 95% of the 1,600 respondents, of whom 91% were not admitted to hospital and 43% were never officially diagnosed, said they have trouble with normal day to day activities three months after being infected. Persisting symptoms include tiredness, shortness of breath, headaches, muscle pain and heart palpitations. The average age of the respondents is 53. Most of the respondents, some 85%, said they had no health problems before the infection. That number dropped to 6%, with almost half of the respondents unable to resume physical activities like sport.

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons

wasn't there a French study a couple weeks ago suggesting that the virus was mutating into something less deadly?

Are you thinking of Berlusconi’s doctor who said that COVID in Italy wasn’t dangerous anymore?

Beijing back under partial lockdown after 100 cases at the weekend.

Yeah, I think more than half of their districts are reporting new cases after 50 days of reporting zero cases. This is a true second wave, worth keeping an eye on for sure.

Ewwwwwww

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/15/covid-19-can-damage-lungs-victims-beyond-recognition-expert-says

This Beijing outbreak is reputedly more contagious and absolutely terrifying.

what are the chances of the uk shutting down again, given that people have only just got a first taste of Sports Direct freedom?

It's unlikely to transmit globally as quickly this time round for obvious reasons but yes the UK is almost certainly going to have to lock down again - probably in the winter after things have appeared to get much better. Regional lockdowns might be more likely unless things get really out of control.

what about the prospect of a second spike that begins in a few weeks and we are right back to 900+ deaths a day followed by a winter spike, by which point multiple NHS trusts have been overwhelmed and we are looking like a collapsed state. yeah not very cheery, but it is what I was thinking this morning whilst walking the dog and was noticing how traffic almost seems to be almost back to pre-lockdown levels.

I was to be honest expecting one by now - it's already 5 weeks since the Warrington Conga and the first May bank holiday.

I think I saw that China is saying the strain is European. Granted, you can't trust anyone at this point to be completely transparent, but if that's true it really does underscore the important (or futility?) of controlling people coming in and out of the country. I don't know about UK day-to-day, but I'm pretty sure a 14-day quarantine for new arrivals is still in effect.

It has only just been placed in effect, about three months after it should have. There is no enforcement mechanism other than the risk that someone might phone up your house and ask to speak to you.

Can see people saying "China was authoritarian af about it and they're seeing another spike, why bother with lockdowns at all"

The fact that the number of new cases hasn't increased in London in two weeks, despite everything that's been happening here, is actually pretty heartening. Then again we got it earlier than the rest of the country, and the city was going about its business normally for two weeks before lockdown with the virus raging, so maybe a critical mass of people have already been exposed idk. Or the risk from outdoor transmission, even in mass gatherings, is relatively low.

Either that or there's a massive spike just around the corner.

It won't be critical mass - I think the estimate for nationwide infection rate is something like 3-5%. Possibly higher in London but not by much. I think it's more the outdoor thing - that the real risk is being next to someone, for an hour or more, indoors, who has it and who is talking to you. Restaurants, pubs, cinemas etc are all still closed and everyone who can work from home still is.

Looks like I'll be going back to work soon. Not bothered because I am bored out of my skull.

London's meant to be something like 17% exposed, i think?

I think it's estimated that 21% of NYC has antibodies. But a fraction of that upstate (for example). I think the vast, vast majority of people have not had it, and may never get it.

17% sounds about right? A lot of Londoners spent a lot of time in close quarters before everything shut down, including on public transport.

BREAKING: Beijing is to shut all schools on Wednesday following a new #coronavirus/#COVID19 outbreak. City officials are also reportedly advising people not to leave the area unless necessary.

— Nick Stylianou (@nmsonline) June 16, 2020

How big was the original outbreak in Beijing?

New Zealand has new cases. Via British citizens of course.

Yeah, just saw that ...

They were placed in an isolation hotel in Auckland upon arrival but were permitted to leave it on compassionate grounds.

I've been given a lot of dex, as a matter of fact

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-dexamethasone-steroid-20200616-62xrf5uyendsve7v47ayk4d2ne-story.html

I'm glad to hear that!

oh no

Flushing a toilet can generate a cloud of aerosol droplets that rises nearly three feet. Those droplets -- which could be laden with coronavirus particles -- may linger in the air long enough to be inhaled by a shared toilet’s next user. https://t.co/nQDCSbVeWu

— NYT Science (@NYTScience) June 16, 2020

“don’t go in there. no i mean REALLY don’t go in there”

hoo boy

sorry man, sorry

Eh, that story itself has sort of lingered for months. But I don't think there's any indication that active Covid virus lingers that way, is there?

yeah that is a story i heard before it was even officially declared a pandemic

genuinely ready to read the word "droplets" way less than i do currently

otm

ploplets

Good name for a power pop band, The Droplets.

Spinal Tap's 2nd incarnation after the Originals

Flushing a toilet can generate a cloud of aerosol droplets that rises nearly three feet.

This is true at all times. The fact that active virus may appear in human feces has been known since February at least. Combine the two facts and this makes public bathrooms with flush toilets a known source of 'community spreading'. This not 'new' news, unless you didn't hear it sooner than this.

https://i.ibb.co/JCjL1QM/unnamed.jpg

There's a lot of "can," "may" and "could" in that Times piece, which also states that scientists have no idea whether it will actually be transmitted by aerosol droplets that way. There's enough shit we don't know about this that we should not need to add to the litany just for the sake of it. Could Covid be transmitted in space? Maybe! Could we get it from eating whales? Maybe! Does Covid prefer Pepsi or Coke? Scientists have no idea.