outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

it wasn't entirely a waste—those of us who *have* coooperated stemmed the hospitalization tide, stalled for vaccine research etc.

but yes fucking infuriating

obviously i think the current national administration has done about the worst job imaginable, and certainly any plausible democratic president would have done better...

but i do think the US is set up in a way that pretty much guaranteed this outcome. fractal federation, harmful incentives in the healthcare industry, extreme inequality, and a self-fulfilling culture in which people assume governments of all levels are incompetent. these are all bad!

no kidding

I mean was it too optimistic in March to think that we'd get a handle on this by May or June?

the extremely stupid ideas about what constitutes 'freedom' add that little extra

xp to caek
i think all that is true. the self-fulfilling distrust of government, especially, is tailor-made for disaster in a situation like this.

but there are different levels of bad outcomes. imagine where we'd be if CDC successfully implemented a nation-wide testing strategy, back in erly February, for example. it's absurd that we still don't have a consistent federal strategy. they're not even trying any more!

yeah as shitty as our health infrastructure is it didn't have to be *this* horrible

yeah the absentee landlord situation at the CDC is particular to the present administration, and it's bad!

but i'm skeptical a nationwide anything is possible in a nation in which half the states are actively hostile to efforts from the federal government to help them... i dunno.

they're actively hostile to the federal government - unless it's got the seal of approval from their thought leader, donald trump. if trump was even 10% serious about coronavirus, it would give these governors political cover to do the right thing (not absolving the governors there - they are fucking pathetic). instead, as per the authoritarian way, he has decided to do the exact opposite of the helpful thing and focus on the fantasy where problems just don't exist.

granted anti-gov't energy has always been strong w/ these idiots, but in this case they are dismissive of the (already seriously comporomised) federal effort because the administration is encouraging them to be! it's twisted

its just crazy that we knew about this in December 2019 and....did nothing. we knew it was coming. we watched it hit everywhere. and we knew then that wasting even a week could make a huge, exponential difference. I didn't have that much faith in our federal government but I do remember thinking, "surely this can't be *that* big of a deal if our national response was just to shrug our shoulders?"

like I'm not gonna be one of those #resistance dudes who just blames Trump for everything but this culture of "all the experts are wrong and their only motivation is to bring down the President, whom they've been brainwashed to believe is bad by CNN" directly feeds into not only our failure to act but also outright hostility towards people who are actually trying to help

i'm not just talking about the fact that red states would refuse help from a competent democrat-run federal government because of anti-expertise or whatever.

i'm also talking about the fact that there are states.

in a country in which people don't like government, and in which governing is by and large extremely badly done (these two are related), we sure have a lot of layers of government!

so sad that what they're being asked to do - DON'T HOLD GIANT MEETINGS INDOORS. WEAR A MASK. - is not hard at all.

i was really worried about the effect of the Floyd/police brutality demonstrations, everyone standing shoulder to shoulder, shouting and chanting, all the police who don't wear masks (because they follow the model of their fascist leaders), etc.

but *knock on wood* i don't think those fears have materialized. i meticulously follow chicago and Illinois covid19 updates, every day. we haven't seen a bump from the protests, and we're well beyond that initial 2-3 week gestation period now. our hospitalization and ICU numbers are still on a downward trend; the positives/test rate continues to decrease. i think the same is true in many other areas that had significant protest activity. obviously these protests aren't "safe", but i think they demonstrate how important it is to avoid -indoor spaces-, and how much of a difference it makes that the protesters tend to wear masks universally, and hand out free masks to people who show up without one. those things make a big, big difference.

but MAGA wants to go bowling! they want indoor activities! they want to cram into a 20,000 arena and proudly demonstrate their opposition to the idea of coronavirus by pretending it doesn't exist. it's so fucking stupid

this culture of "all the experts are wrong and their only motivation is to bring down the President, whom they've been brainwashed to believe is bad by CNN"

i always retreat to thinking about the history of climate change activists vs climate deniers as an important forerunner of this. there are probably better examples. but seriously, the whole goddamn "movement" on the right has been training themselves to ignore scientists and "experts" for decades now. not just to ignore them but to actively support the exact opposite stance, the anti-science position

like I'm not gonna be one of those #resistance dudes who just blames Trump for everything but this culture of "all the experts are wrong and their only motivation is to bring down the President, whom they've been brainwashed to believe is bad by CNN" directly feeds into not only our failure to act but also outright hostility towards people who are actually trying to help

― frogbs, Friday, June 19, 2020 12:51 PM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yeah I mean it's not like Trump somehow hypnotized 1/3 of the country into not giving a shit about the health of themselves or their loved ones in the name of FREEDOM! He's a symptom of the broader and more entrenched disease which has in turn promoted the spread of this more recent disease.

in the past there were at least dudes willing to present "alternate science" which I suppose is better than the straight up "every medical expert in the world suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome" line

since this tweet, AMC has revised their stance and will be requiring masks. but look at this deep fucking hole we're in:

AMC Theater CEO Adam Aron says their cinemas won't require masks upon reopening because they didn't "want to be drawn into a political controversy" https://t.co/zNjy9wzGMK

— Variety (@Variety) June 18, 2020

i'm a centrist, independent. but since all scientific issues are also political issues, and i'm in the center there as well

maybe we can do no masks, but double the hand sanitizer? in a good scientific compromise, no side ends up happy

the fact that there's a culture war over masks is pure Trumpism...do Republicans get this whiny if it's say, President Rubio? I think they'd just wear the fucking mask

I understand that under a different leader there may have been pushback from certain states, but I believe the utter absence of a top down federal plan to tackle this is what has really doomed us. Pretty much any other president would have attempted to take a coordinated approach that spanned the country instead of just letting many different players and localities sort it all out for themselves. Yes, some people would bristle at it and not comply, but having a coherent approach would have been far better either way.

otm

this is the 3rd bullet down in the washpost live updates blog:

The CDC said Thursday that the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus could rise to as high as 145,000 by July 11, meaning as many as 26,000 Americans could die in the next few weeks.

i just want to check in with what i previously believed to be reality and confirm that this would have been fucking bonkers to read just a few years ago

the last few years have been like a carnival ride that can only go faster

that explains why it’s been so much fun

some quick maths:

145,000 - 121,000 (approx. as of today) = 24,000
July 11 - June 19 = 22 days
24,000/22 = ~1,091 deaths per day or 7,636 per week

As of right now, I believe that CDC # is a very pessimistic forecast, unless something insanely dramatic happens.

it's around 700/day right now and the assumption is that they will accelerate upward, so it's conceivable

please god. please let the deaths per day remain at 700 for a while longer

maybe a graph would illustrate how drastic the change would need to be:

https://i.imgur.com/6kuMbWY.png

current trend line from peak of first wave til now = blue line
CDC's forecast for next 22 days = red line

that's what we call a "hockey stick" and there is no current indication of an event that would cause that radical of a shift in the trend.

my state is doing its damnedest to try tho

what do you mean CDC's forecast for next 22 days? is that the mean? the high projection (145k)? or the low projection (129k)?

also, where else have i heard of a "hockey stick"? hmmm

it's more like a dog letting it's paw hang out the window

you should go to sleep I think?

uh, i was letting you off easy - which CDC projection is the red line? the mean, the high end, or the low? or can you at least link to where you found it so i can do it

your post at 9:34 PDT upthread^^^

here's why i think there is already reason to believe deaths can and probably will rise soon:

https://i.imgur.com/s6f5FN4.jpg

i don't really understand the "there is no current indication of an event that would cause that radical of a shift in the trend" thought. first of all, it's not that radical of a shift. (it's more so if you assume the very highest CDC estimate) secondly, there are current indications of events that would cause a big shift. some of the biggest, most populous states in the country are seeing big increases right now, setting new records each day. ?

oops, didn't explain my little graphic: deaths have declined at a steeper rate than case declines. but still, there's a lag effect between cases and deaths, and we're seeing a big steep rise in cases right now, in new populations that aren't remotely close to taking the precautions they need to be taking right now. in places like texas, they're arguing about their goddamn masks still

honestly i'm still just curious why you can't draw another version of the graph with the low case scenario (129k). i just want to see what that hockey stick looks like so i can compare

plus if you could project the dates out as well, in addition to the lines

I totally agree that there may be some more plateaus and slight positive bumps until the fall, but... I do not see a radically divergent explosion happening tomorrow triggering an exponential increase in fatalities across the next 3 weeks.

That was a worst case scenario doom post, but don't worry I've posted a few of those too. Thanks for letting me off easy lol.

sorry, i am being an intense weirdo right now. i don't even know what i'm wanting.

*chugs water*

the 129k best-case would be ~350 deaths per day, so it would take the current trend line of -31% and ramp it down to -50%.

but it was kind of a meta worst case scenario post - i was saying that i saw that as the 3rd bullet on the Washington Post, and it seemed incredibly dystopian. it wouldn't really matter if the number was 700 instead of 1100 per day. it's so fucked up

xp well, shows what i know. so the cdc projection ranges from getting way worse to getting way better, and the washington post chose to amplify the very top number

and then i got freaked out because let's face it, i've been drinking again, you're right

i have never been that friend who picks fights while they're drunk, yet here i am, doing it on the internet. sorry albert r broccoli

<3

More than 50,000 new cases in one day, the biggest one-day increase for any country in the world since the pandemic began https://t.co/RFuwhWJvKD

— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) June 19, 2020

A small follow up to the "long plateau" assessment of the #COVID19 epidemic. When I tweeted this on April 30, we had ~30k daily confirmed cases and ~2000 daily deaths. This last week, we had ~24k daily confirmed cases and ~700 daily deaths. 1/10https://t.co/SjLdYVZdhK

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) June 20, 2020