outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

thank goodness the predictions generally did not come to pass

niggling point, but they were projections, not predictions, based on plugging in a variety of assumptions about the values of many variables.

news reports tend to dwell on either the worst case or the median case, but all of us who are not trained in this stuff tend to drop out most of the qualifiers and treat whatever number got stuck in our heads as 'what we should expect', because its a number and it was attributed to experts.

many people were saying 2 million, 3 million deaths

(say the the people who never bothered to read a description of what Imperial College London's study was even trying to estimate (which was how many deaths would result from a total non-response)

but all the same, look many people were saying 2-3 million in the US and it's only been a touch over 100k, practically less than that, and way below 1% of what all the wacky doomsayers were saying would most likely happen, many studies are showing

https://i.imgur.com/a4f4zgi.jpg

The USA may still surpass 400,000 before this is under better control. It's only been about 4 months so far and we've passed 125,000. It'll be another 8 months at the very least before they can roll out a vaccine in quantity, and the lockdowns of March and April are not likely to be resumed in the same form.

you sure seem to know a lot about the future! but how come you can't tell me what the weather is going to be tomorrow? it rained yesterday and it said 0% chance on my phone

anyway, if 400k die there was nothing we could have done about it. it was the most lethal any of us had ever heard of

sigh

Fair enough, Aimless (and Karl). But projections, predictions ... most of the numbers (and the news) have been driven by spikes and outbreaks in dense cities. I haven't seen too much reporting on its spread through small or rural populations, though of course, a small hospital in a small population can be overwhelmed as quickly as a large hospital in a large population. It's all relative. Or, for example, Covidexitstrategy.org does included hospital ICU capacity, and lil' Rhode Island is the only one listed as "extremely low," at 11%, but I've not heard any talk of Rhode Island. (Texas is "low" at 33%). That's of course statewide, though, not individual hospitals who, one must assume, have to send their patients somewhere else when things get tight, and then things get tight at that other place, and so on.

How does one interrogate Coronavirus?

"Good doctor, bad doctor" seems to work OK.

Rhode Island is low because it’s got a small population, received an enormous number of test kits, and has aggressively tested (1/5th of residents). It will not stay low, because of dumb people and beaches.

& also my mom, who likes to cough into her hand and then touch things.

xpost low, as in severely lacking ICU capacity. That's not good!

We were so close to nationwide elimination, but Scotty forced the hands of the states on reopening, and now cases are rising in Victoria again. I can't help thinking that another couple of week of lockdown and we would have avoided this. Suppression rather than elimination is the strategy and whatever else it seems to be the more stressful path.

can we just nuke the virus

https://i.imgur.com/4pKDlCm.gif

target remains, sir. target remains.

How does one interrogate Coronavirus?

― I hear that sometimes Satan wants to defund police (Neanderthal), Sunday, June 28, 2020 6:32 PM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think you’re on to something. maybe public health measures should be framed as enhanced interrogation of the virus

washington post breaking: As new coronavirus cases continue to rise in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has shut down bars in some areas of the state, including Los Angeles.

--

sorry, SOME bars? wtf is going on? why does every state have to unnecessarily kill people before? even in democratic states? jfc, shut any bar down, by your liquor in bulk and drink it at home at a steep discount like a true american

everyone always make fun of missouri because it's the Show Me State, and they're definitely flying that flag now, but the whole damn country is just like "well i dunno maybe we could drink at bars and be close and be safe at the same time, hasn't happened here"

it's ALL bars in SOME areas of the state fwiw (the counties where it's rising the fastest and the bars are open). it's not like a selection of LA's lamest bars.

i just feel bad because i was making fun of texas the other day for just now closing bars. california is ahead of the curve on so many policies, i just assumed that they already closed all the bars! damn CA, i thought you were cool

just to compare, i'm reading now about how Australia's Victoria has had 75 cases (mostly trackd with contract tracing, i'm sure) in the past 24 hours and they're contemplating a lockdown

in the US i'm pretty sure 75 cases/day triggers a state-wide holiday and free go-kart passes

Karl, did you (or any other Chicago folk) notice that a lot of already few states that were green on sites like covidexitstrategy (Good/Trending Better) have been slightly downgraded to yellow (Making Progress)? Illinois was I think yellow yesterday, but the site now has it red (Trending Poorly) today. (Only current greens are New Jersey/New York/Connecticut.) When I look at the numbers, though, it doesn't seem that bad, so maybe I'm just reading things wrong? Tbf, Illinois only had a 6% increase in cases, vs. 86% in CA vs. 252% in FL.

Semi-related, I was talking to a friend about local traffic the other day, and at least in Chicago, yeah, there's plenty of traffic. But he had a friend in New York who claimed as recently as last week he could get from Laguardia to Manhattan in 15 minutes, which indicates ... not much traffic.

btw Looks like half-ass US was just as ineffective as no-ass Sweden:

One country intended to contain cases, the other didn't pic.twitter.com/9E8EmEFeIZ

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) June 28, 2020

# of new cases in IL has remained fairly steady throughout the month (slight rise over the last couple of days) but we still have like 700 new positives/day. Compared to the states that aren't actively blowing up atm, that seems not great.

btw Looks like half-ass US was just as ineffective as no-ass Sweden:

amazing that the US economy lost trillions in the last few months just to get us right back where we started

Karl, did you (or any other Chicago folk) notice that a lot of already few states that were green on sites like covidexitstrategy (Good/Trending Better) have been slightly downgraded to yellow (Making Progress)? Illinois was I think yellow yesterday, but the site now has it red (Trending Poorly) today. (Only current greens are New Jersey/New York/Connecticut.) When I look at the numbers, though, it doesn't seem that bad, so maybe I'm just reading things wrong? Tbf, Illinois only had a 6% increase in cases, vs. 86% in CA vs. 252% in FL

i think covidexitstrategy is good for some things, not so good for others. the criteria is based on the White House criteria on three measures (ICU utilization, case trends over the last 14 days, and amount of testing compared to the state's goal) and it's very simplistic. red, yellow, green. i think the Illinois example is actually a really good one for demonstrating why it's not so useful.

Illinois is red. Texas is red. these states are very different situations.

Illinois is red because covid cases are increasing over the past 14 days. but we're in way better shape than many other states where the same thing is true. i made some homemade-ass charts for illinois (all data from covidtracking.com). here's how i look at the data, fwiw.

first i look at the cases:

https://i.imgur.com/QRxPI7x.png

the thick white line is the 7-day average of new cases for IL. new cases have been decreasing steadily for a while, and then recently there's been a bit of an uptick. why? next thing to do is check out the testing situation:

https://i.imgur.com/j5pfhiJ.png

illinois was already conducting a decent amount of tests, and it's only gone up in recent days. but the real question is whether the increased cases are rising faster or slower than the increase in tests. you can glance at the two charts so far and see that the increase in tests seems to be higher than the increase in cases, but just to verify, you need to check the positive rate of the tests:

https://i.imgur.com/BYp28FG.png

this is what makes me feel *knock on wood* slightly ok about illinois. our positive rate has been in the 2-3% range for a long time. we're getting more cases, but the positive rate is pretty steady. that indicates that the rise in cases is mostly due to increased testing, not so much from new outbreaks.

last thing to do is check the ICU and hospitalizations. here, too, we have a good trend in illinois:

https://i.imgur.com/BYp28FG.png

and yet, again, covidexitstrategy shows Illinois as Red (the worst, and the same as TX/AZ/FL) because the IL cases have risen 4-5% in the last 14 days. but that indicator isn't taking into account the testing numbers or the positive %, which are crucial. why don't they? i don't know, because the white house is involved? but if you take a look at Texas or Arizona or Florida and dive into the underlying testing and positive rates, you'll see something very different and frightening.

my bad, the last chart was supposed to be ICU/hospitalizations in IL:

https://i.imgur.com/d3XmqwM.png

Thanks!

Btw I just got off the phone with someone I know in the Detroit/Grosse Pointe area. That bar that semi reopened? Where something like 84 people caught covid? One of the young dudes that went apparently went home, got sick a few days later, and *still* invited people over to hang at a fire pit party. And now they are reportedly passing it on to their parents.

i understand why sites like that exist, and the attraction of having a simple red/yellow/green system. but i think it's very misleading, at least the way it's currently set up. i mean, they're basing it on the White House's three criteria, which are flawed, so it's not covidexitstrategy.com's fault. it's the white house's fault. if i were joe white house, i would change the "14-day case trend" criteria so that rather than just being based on total cases, it was instead based on the total cases as compared to the test data, like i mentioned in the prior post. but we've already defeated coronavirus in the united states, so i don't expect them to change it any time soon

xp

We all know Joe Whitehouse is on furlough someplace far, far away, floating down the laziest lazy river.

otoh, i must admit i like the idea of public health expert and vice president of the united states mike pence checking in on his own white house's flawed criteria and seeing today's map:

https://i.imgur.com/IwNIdNt.png

The FT coronavirus tracker is now allowing you to break the number of cases/deaths down by individual US states, which makes sense really as they should really be treated like separate countries.

The case trajectory for New York is similar to that of European countries, while Florida, Texas and California are just at the beginning of the peak. If cases start rapidly trending upwards in NY again then that's bad news for the whole world because it will mean it's basically impossible to exit lockdown for very long without a vaccine or more effective treatment.

i just feel bad because i was making fun of texas the other day for just now closing bars. california is ahead of the curve on so many policies, i just assumed that they already closed all the bars! damn CA, i thought you were cool

― time is running out to pitch in $5 (Karl Malone), Monday, June 29, 2020 2:33 AM (nine hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

they only just reopened them in most of CA (certainly LA county)! they were open for like 72 hours before they closed.

https://variety.com/2020/music/news/chase-rice-concert-crowd-packed-video-social-distancing-1234692620/

xp caek

ah, that makes much more sense, thanks! i was going to say, keeping the bars open the whole time seemed very un-california

Boy y’all really throwing the term “country star” around today. It’s like the adult film industry, they aren’t all “stars.” Hell, some are so broke they’ve decided to do shows this weekend regardless of what might happen to their non-isolated, maskless audience!

— Jason Isbell (@JasonIsbell) June 28, 2020

here's the video:

Chase Rice just played a concert to an enormous crowd of unmasked fans here in Tennessee. For once, I am at a loss for words. pic.twitter.com/wB47u1EaFd

— Lorie Liebig (@lorieliebig) June 28, 2020

A good friend of mine owns some live venues in Chicago (that you know), and he told me over the weekend that they had been thinking about ways to hold "safe" concerts, but that even if they found a way that made everyone comfortable, the public backlash would likely be so loud they'd have to shut down again.

haven't given it much thought, but how about an outdoor show, with observers sitting on a lawn a minimum of 10 feet away from each other, masks mandatory?

Drive-in shows can work.

Mosh pit might be deadly though

A club that holds metal shows in Tampa outright just started doing local band shows again. Like things are normal again

I think he was concerned it wouldn't be worth the effort, in terms of ticket sales. And people would still be pissed. He was also thinking about the possibly of essentially premium living room shows, more or less private performances in a venue for a really small crowd that has paid a high price. But same thing, he thinks there would be a backlash. How did Chappelle pull it off for his Netflix thing?

xpost Re: outdoor shows.

Xxpost Then again, it's owned by a cokehead who gave me a bump off of her key once in a parking lot, so it's possible she isn't aware of COVID

haven't given it much thought, but how about an outdoor show, with observers sitting on a lawn a minimum of 10 feet away from each other, masks mandatory?

all meetings should be held outside if it’s nice weather and teleconferencing can’t work for whatever reason. wtf. in knoxville they’re having regular city council business again, indoors, and it’s like.... your building has a courtyard. with benches and grassy open space. wtf do you think it’s for?? the brochure i guess

the public zoom council meetings in LA (i yield my time fuck you) have been a revelation for good faith participation by people who aren't nimby reagan voting retirees. i hope they stay forever.

Doro Pesch had a drive-in concert in Germany, except the cars were all on top of each other, passengers outside of their cars closer than 6 inches, many unmasked, so it became "what is the point", unless Doro was using this as a pretext to steal someone's car

A local venue near me started up "To-Go Concerts" a few months ago, where they'd send a musician to play outside your house to no more than 10 people for 30 minutes. I know Jason Narducy did some of the early ones, but they've got a list of more musicians you can choose from (Jon Langford being one of them). Cool idea, but considering these concerts start at $750 and go up from there, I'm not sure how often they are actually happening.

I will pay $1,000 for Exhumed to play outside the house of the dickhead who threatened me last month