outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

xpost Re: outdoor shows.

Xxpost Then again, it's owned by a cokehead who gave me a bump off of her key once in a parking lot, so it's possible she isn't aware of COVID

haven't given it much thought, but how about an outdoor show, with observers sitting on a lawn a minimum of 10 feet away from each other, masks mandatory?

all meetings should be held outside if it’s nice weather and teleconferencing can’t work for whatever reason. wtf. in knoxville they’re having regular city council business again, indoors, and it’s like.... your building has a courtyard. with benches and grassy open space. wtf do you think it’s for?? the brochure i guess

the public zoom council meetings in LA (i yield my time fuck you) have been a revelation for good faith participation by people who aren't nimby reagan voting retirees. i hope they stay forever.

Doro Pesch had a drive-in concert in Germany, except the cars were all on top of each other, passengers outside of their cars closer than 6 inches, many unmasked, so it became "what is the point", unless Doro was using this as a pretext to steal someone's car

A local venue near me started up "To-Go Concerts" a few months ago, where they'd send a musician to play outside your house to no more than 10 people for 30 minutes. I know Jason Narducy did some of the early ones, but they've got a list of more musicians you can choose from (Jon Langford being one of them). Cool idea, but considering these concerts start at $750 and go up from there, I'm not sure how often they are actually happening.

I will pay $1,000 for Exhumed to play outside the house of the dickhead who threatened me last month

for 7 hours

haven't given it much thought, but how about an outdoor show, with observers sitting on a lawn a minimum of 10 feet away from each other, masks mandatory?

barring a major setback in public health, this is gonna happen in NYC before the winter
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, June 29, 2020 1:22 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

It's already happening in NYC with the protests and it's dope and fun and important and bigger than chase whats-his-name and I rly can't see any artist that appeals to NYC-ers doing an outdoor concert in NYC (Jones Beach does not count)

like NY is thirsty for many frivolous things but I don't see live music as being one of them tbrr

question of scale there I think. any concert that happens with those restrictions, even if it's on the great lawn, will be only a thousand people at most. Will likely be livestreamed out the wazoo though.

And yes, the protests are far more vital than the NY Pops but the latter represents a return to normalcy for a lot of people and (to put a point on it) for big business in the city.

Not that it matters, but the Chase Rice show was outdoors with a lawn and the opportunity for concertgoers to socially distance on said lawn. It's just that several hundred of them decided they wanted to be right in front of the stage instead. Because freedom, because America.

here we go lads

Los Angeles County health officials issued a dire warning Monday that conditions amid the coronavirus pandemic in the nation’s most populous county are deteriorating rapidly and the highly contagious virus is spreading swiftly in the community.https://t.co/DNuwliGGCF

— Javier Panzar 🦅 (@jpanzar) June 29, 2020

Health officials issue grim projections about COVID-19 in LA County. Hospitals running out of ICU beds. At current rate of spread, it's projected new daily hospitalizations could jump to nearly 2,500 & daily deaths could hit 100 w/in about a month. ⁦@KNX1070⁩ pic.twitter.com/wGSYATq7s6

— Claudia Peschiutta (@ReporterClaudia) June 29, 2020

I feel for the poor hospital personnel who are stuck in this never ending nightmare of caring for people for whom they can do so little, except give them supplemental oxygen or drug them up and put them on a ventilator, then wait to see if they live or die. Then there's the constant tension of daily exposure and perhaps becoming one of them yourself. With no change in that prospect until next year some time.

Not to mention being paid much worse than the fucking police.

i'm really afraid for the mental health of these employees. the endless hours, the risky conditions, the poor pay, the aforementioned scenario above....

^ yes

i feel awful for them, it must be exhausting

stand down everyone

Deaths now less than 5-year average. The epidemic, by any interpretation, is over. https://t.co/Id2oyb0ouk

— Alistair Haimes (@AlistairHaimes) June 30, 2020

oh god, not the "more tests means more lockdown we should stop testing" guy

Salvini sent packing after he travels down to Mondragone in Southern Italy. He tried to exploit disturbances over an outbreak of Covid-19 in an occupied building housing migrant workers who are paid so little they can't afford rent. Bravo @Giul_Granato!pic.twitter.com/7yzQbUN7t8

— Rosa (@rosagilbert) June 30, 2020

Fuck the USA

I heard, on the radio while driving, a snippet of Dr. Fauci testifying to the Senate today that the rate of new US cases could jump up to as many as 100,000 a day! It is currently ~40,000 a day, which is plenty awful as it is.

It's always good to have something to aspire to, a goal to achieve, a record to beat. We can do this! USA! USA!

I've been reading about the Austrian super-spreader ski resort where they tested pretty much everyone. Nearly half the people in the town had covid antibodies but only 15% of the people who tested positive had displayed any symptoms.

I guess the population of an Austrian ski resort is going to skew pretty young but still that's insane. How many cases are there out there that we know nothing about?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/austrian-ski-resort-study-shows-pervasive-coronavirus-spread

Yeah. This is why the Île-de-France—the greater Paris region—is going to be testing 1.4 million people at random in the next days : to identify “dormant clusters”.

I guess the population of an Austrian ski resort is going to skew pretty young but still that's insane. How many cases are there out there that we know nothing about?

― Matt DC, Tuesday, June 30, 2020 6:19 PM (two hours ago)

a lot, but this study found that the seropositivity was 6x higher than those who had been PCR-positive. general wisdom, at least around may, was 10x, and there were some (bad) papers that were suggesting as high as 80x

it is obviously population- and resource-dependent as you point out

the frustrating thing about all this is that obviously the unknowns re: COVID transmission should result in the average civilian thinking "well, since we're not sure how high the risk of asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission is, I'll just stay home to be safe", but instead it's "well, there's nebulous evidence as to how much the asymptomatic are transmitting this, so until that proof is here, it's business as usual for me".

Positive tests (and hospitalizations) are up, but the rolling 7-day total of USA fatalities (3,959) is the lowest since 3/24-3/30, which coincidentally was the week ending exactly 3 months ago.

Do we have a good explanation for that yet?

i think it's supposed to be a number of factors, but especially 1) average age of people getting infected is going down, and 2) better treatment as we're now 6 months into this thing

https://i.imgur.com/QhFrluD.png

Gyms and fitness centers across Arizona are defying Republican Gov. Doug Ducey’s shutdown guidelines and pledging to stay open as the number of coronavirus cases in the state continues to rise.

After Arizona set records for current hospitalizations, Ducey ordered all bars, gyms, entertainment theaters and water parks to close for at least the next 30 days. However, on Tuesday, Life Time Athletic, which bills itself as an upscale fitness club, informed members of its decision to reopen its fitness floors for programs and classes on July 1. Members will be able to access the spa, pools, saunas, steam rooms and locker rooms, to name a few of the club’s amenities.

“We believe providing access to these services — with proper social distance, on regularly-cleaned equipment, and in masks as appropriate — is vital to allow individuals to maintain their overall health,” chief executive Jeff Zwiefel wrote in a letter obtained by The Washington Post.

While Life Time plans to open its doors Wednesday, another Arizona gym has taken it a step further. In response to Ducey’s order, Mountainside Fitness chief executive Tom Hatten held a news conference at one of his fully operational sites — as several members walked on treadmills in the background — to announce his intention to sue the governor.

LAW AND ORDER

https://i.imgur.com/byhflqK.png

Residents in Milton, Fla., will not be required to wear face coverings following the City Council’s decision to rescind an emergency declaration that stipulated face coverings.

The council held a special meeting Monday in which it unanimously voted to rescind Mayor Heather Lindsay’s order issued Friday.

Lindsay told a mostly unmasked crowd that the decision was a disappointment, the Pensacola News Journal reported.

“It is a sad state of affairs today that there is so much passion around personal liberties; if that same passion were applied to preventing the spread of this disease, imagine where we could be,” she said, according to the paper.

Only three of the seven council members wore masks as they heard questionable testimony against the order and the benefits of masks, the News Journal reported.

NO

NO

THIS was the depressing chart i meant to post

https://i.imgur.com/He6eCTw.png

never gonna win tetris stacking that way

Proper social distancing in a sauna

i think it's supposed to be a number of factors, but especially 1) average age of people getting infected is going down, and 2) better treatment as we're now 6 months into this thing

― time is running out to pitch in $5 (Karl Malone), Tuesday, June 30, 2020 9:59 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

3) deaths lag tests.

I was supposed to report back for work tomorrow. I broke my leg a month before the pandemic so I've been out a while. Still using a cane and I'm on relegated to desk duty while my job is normally fairly physical. Convinced the boss to let me work from home even though he grumbled about it.

Just found out boss has a fever. If he has it, there's a good chance it is running through my department because the nature of our work does not allow for social distancing. I'm worried about coworkers that I regard as friends. So glad I dig in my heels on going back to work. Fuck.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/amazon-misled-the-public-about-its-coronavirus-problem.html

3) deaths lag tests.

this is true too, but am i wrong to think it might be less of a factor than the first two? i base that on states like FL and TX having relatively steady death rates despite their daily cases doubling or tripling or more over the last month or so.

i guess it depends on what the typical lag is. 2-4 weeks, maybe?

3) deaths lag tests.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, June 30, 2020 9:15 PM (thirty minutes ago)

source on that? this chart shows a growing gap between the (log) curves in active cases vs. fatalities:
https://i.imgur.com/m2QLpJM.png

i'm making a logical point: people get coronavirus before they die of coronavirus because that's how time works. absent other effects (such as the mortality rate going down, or a change in the number of tests administered each day) it's a logical certainty that an increase in positive tests is followed by an increase in deaths.

"absent other effects" is doing a lot of work there, and i don't mean to imply the lag is the whole story. the factors karl mentioned are certainly present, but so is this one. they pull in different directions and it's an open question which is bigger. i guess we're about to find out.

what a disaster https://t.co/RS4UMjCzHJ

— b-boy bouiebaisse (@jbouie) July 1, 2020

A jolly thread

Good morning in sad, jealous tweets. All schools in Taiwan have been open since February. They did not listen to China or WHO in January and immediately masked up and shut down travel. They also traced the hell out of their outbreaks. They were practically done by February.

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) July 1, 2020

This case number increase in Illinois is really bumming me out this morning. Not surprised, the virus doesn't just hop off when people cross state lines, but it reinforces that even states that did the right things earlier are still in for a long, long, long, long road ahead.

good news is that in IL the increased cases are mostly coming from increasing testing. the positivity rates are holding steady at around 2-3% and have been for weeks

for context, the IL 7-day average for cases is around the same point now (773 cases/day) as we were back on the front end of the curve, at the beginning of april. but the difference is that at the beginning of april, we were struggling to hit 5,000 tests per day, and the positivity rate was above 20%. now we're doing 30,000+ tests a day, and the positivity rates about 2.6%