outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

3) deaths lag tests.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, June 30, 2020 9:15 PM (thirty minutes ago)

source on that? this chart shows a growing gap between the (log) curves in active cases vs. fatalities:
https://i.imgur.com/m2QLpJM.png

i'm making a logical point: people get coronavirus before they die of coronavirus because that's how time works. absent other effects (such as the mortality rate going down, or a change in the number of tests administered each day) it's a logical certainty that an increase in positive tests is followed by an increase in deaths.

"absent other effects" is doing a lot of work there, and i don't mean to imply the lag is the whole story. the factors karl mentioned are certainly present, but so is this one. they pull in different directions and it's an open question which is bigger. i guess we're about to find out.

what a disaster https://t.co/RS4UMjCzHJ

— b-boy bouiebaisse (@jbouie) July 1, 2020

A jolly thread

Good morning in sad, jealous tweets. All schools in Taiwan have been open since February. They did not listen to China or WHO in January and immediately masked up and shut down travel. They also traced the hell out of their outbreaks. They were practically done by February.

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) July 1, 2020

This case number increase in Illinois is really bumming me out this morning. Not surprised, the virus doesn't just hop off when people cross state lines, but it reinforces that even states that did the right things earlier are still in for a long, long, long, long road ahead.

good news is that in IL the increased cases are mostly coming from increasing testing. the positivity rates are holding steady at around 2-3% and have been for weeks

for context, the IL 7-day average for cases is around the same point now (773 cases/day) as we were back on the front end of the curve, at the beginning of april. but the difference is that at the beginning of april, we were struggling to hit 5,000 tests per day, and the positivity rate was above 20%. now we're doing 30,000+ tests a day, and the positivity rates about 2.6%

http://i.imgur.com/jV9hMmA.png
https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-statistics-tracking-epidemic-new-york

Despite Texas’ surge of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said Tuesday evening that he doesn’t need the advice of the nation’s top infectious disease doctor, Anthony Fauci.

“Fauci said today he’s concerned about states like Texas that ‘skipped over’ certain things. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about,” Patrick told Fox News host Laura Ingraham in an interview. “We haven’t skipped over anything. The only thing I’m skipping over is listening to him.”

Patrick also said Fauci has “been wrong every time on every issue,” but did not elaborate on specifics.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-dan-patrick-dr-anthony-fauci-comment/285-ee7a4619-22d5-4135-a83b-99c573785601

GRRRRAAAARRRGH @#$%$@!! DAN PATRICK IS SUCH A FUCKFACE RAT BASTARD

Possibly Patrick's worst crime is making people think Abbott is the reasonable one.

Patrick already volunteered to be taken by the 'Rona, I don't see any need to be rude and deny his generous offer.

Arizona just reported *4,878* new COVID cases in the last 24 hours--a staggering record.

Arizona just reported *88* newly-reported COVID deaths--another staggering record.

Arizona just reported the percent positive rate of tests today was *28.3%* -- this is...a numbing number.

— Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) July 1, 2020

it’s just because they’re doing more, uh, more targeted, more precise tests on exactly the right people. we should be applauding this state’s laser-like focus on testing precisely the people who will probably die from a margarita rocks, no salt.

“MY BODY, MY CHOICE” - that’s what a group of about 100 - 200 people are chanting as they walk down 1st Street in downtown Sanford - protesting Seminole County’s mask mandate, which took effect today.

Group is headed to county’s govt building. #N13COVID19

⁦@MyNews13⁩ pic.twitter.com/pRFMyVE8u1

— Jeff Allen (@News13JeffAllen) July 1, 2020

let's see, what is different about that phrase as applied to wearing a mask during a pandemic as opposed to supporting the right to have an abortion, hmmmmmmmm, could there be any difference, hmm

considering how busy the traffic is in downtown Sanford, be a shame if someone didn't see a stop sign.

we live in such a stupid fucking country

That said, uh, not cool Neanderthal, esp after we literally saw multiple examples of cops driving into BLM protests.

clearly trolling xxp

I get pretty angry when I see this ignorant bullshit in my own backyard. esp when we're at risk of becoming the next NYC.

have nothing but hate for these people at this point

I understand the anger behind it, just pointing out that it's not a particular good look.

maybe these assholes could go volunteer at the FL DEO and help process the hundreds of thousands of backlogged unemployment claims if they have nothing better to do with their time

Personally, I'd be down with tagging the ears of these pig-ignorant motherfuckers such that hospitals know at a glance which COVID sufferers they can safely leave lying on the sidewalk.

These last two suggestions seem better.

Seemingly overnight, when required to buy groceries, everyone around me found their damn masks. Not even any incidents of people being assholes about it so far.

50,000+ new cases today in the US according to worldometer. don't know why states thought that re-opening bars was ok

What could go wrong? Oh wait.

what's really essential to keep open, though, is fitness clubs in arizona

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5T0utQ-XWGY

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/01/research-determines-protests-did-not-cause-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/#6adbfe4d7dac

that's a blessing

JUST IN: More than 40 South Bay school principals are in quarantine after being exposed to COVID-19 during an in-person meeting to plan the reopening of schools. https://t.co/tqPZbDf1rk

— San Francisco Chronicle (@sfchronicle) July 2, 2020

Just great, now we need another meeting to discuss how to handle the quarantined principals situation, next steps, etc. I think there’s an unlocked janitor’s closet down the hall we can all squeeze into

Maybe 2020 will finally be the year that a lot of technophobic people finally make the leap to email, computers, and video calls

xpost guilty lols of pain, there

Received my district's marching orders for August. Back to the classroom I go.

Document includes a link to the state department of ed's advice, which says something to the effect of "while student safety is the most significant factor in our decision-making for re-opening plans, teacher safety is outside of our jurisdiction and was not considered in designing these plans."

wtf

uh

brb

*invests in the coronavirus-related lawsuit industry*

off to the tv networks you go with that. that is all kinds of fucked.

that is bullshit, soda. :( is there a teacher's union that can respond, or have you talked to any of the other teachers? making plans for august seems silly, anyway, no matter where you are

the bar thing is crazy, I cannot think of a worse place to have open than indoor bars. I assume outdoor ones are kinda okay?

Also, from an interview with the author of the American Academy of Pediatrics' guidelines, Sean O'Leary:

Q: The guidelines [for reopening] emphasize that teachers and school staff members should stay physically distanced to the greatest extent possible and conduct meetings remotely. But I am hearing from a lot of teachers. Many are, frankly, scared to go back to school before a vaccine is available. A few have told me that they feel that their health is treated as expendable. What’s your message to them?

A: We’re pediatricians. We’re not educators. We don’t want to tread in space where we don’t belong. But what I would say is it depends on the level of risk for the individual person.

Additionally, the 6-foot guideline has been rewritten to 3-feet with children because, um, I really don't know wahy

Q: i'm a teacher. can you please give me advice, as an expert in children's health?
A: listen, i'm an expert in children's health, not a teacher. it's up to you to decide.

There is significant evidence young children are less likely to contract and transmit, I don't think it's crazy for the guidelines to be less strict!

listen, i'm not a small business owner, i'm a bank loan officer. i can't tell you if you'll be approved for a bank loan for your small business or not - that's up to YOU.

has there been a significant outbreak at a school yet?

we had one at our day care, 4 of the teachers got it, all mild cases thankfully. there were only 8-9 kids there but I don't think any of them nor the parents got it. or they did and didn't show any symptoms. actually makes me feel better about sending them back there next month, if the teachers already got it I think the risk for us is lower

"hey, my teacher friends and I were thinking about driving our cars into the ocean. but one of our friends said there was a physical danger to this. can you comment?"

"hey, we're doctors, not teachers. we can't be telling you how to drive your cars."

There is significant evidence young children are less likely to contract and transmit, I don't think it's crazy for the guidelines to be less strict!

'less likely' isn't sufficiently comforting as an adult in a room with 15 elementary students for six hours a day

A number of elementary schools in Paris have been shut down for outbreaks in the last couple weeks since those schools opened again.