Another 530 or so? That's up on yesterday but still down on a week or so ago.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:01 (three years ago) link
Smh @ the asshole gov of Oklahoma getting it and still not considering a mask mandate. I hope it ruins him.
― Fetchboy, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:02 (three years ago) link
xp sorry, i was looking at the graph they show on the guardian which always seems to be a day ahead of the number they give. I saw 1,240 !
― Two Meter Peter (Ste), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:03 (three years ago) link
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-c_JzDcG9Azs/Xw9TjfdUexI/AAAAAAAAA2I/zZY4STRhF6gZ0-tdx1I3QNF9WGE942hcwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/COVIDJuly.png
― Two Meter Peter (Ste), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:06 (three years ago) link
please tell there's some valid techy stat gathering reason for such an increase
― Two Meter Peter (Ste), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:08 (three years ago) link
in general, it's not a good idea to look at daily totals. many jurisdictions have a different reporting schedule, and many/most have discrepancies related to weekend lags and weekday catching up. One large city may report very few cases on a particular day or weekend, only to release all of them at once later, on a weekday. there can also be delayed-case counts from weeks past - e.g., possible cases that were in definitional limbo but were suddenly categorized as cases, adding a big pile on one day.
in other words, there's a whole lot of crazy things that can happen on a single day that influences the count up and down.
that's why it's a good idea to look at 7-day averages, whenever possible.
― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:14 (three years ago) link
look at those single days with nearly 0 new UK cases around the beginning of July, for example.
― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:15 (three years ago) link
I've looked in four places including on the official gov.net coronavirus page and it's saying 538 new cases on all of them.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:17 (three years ago) link
Nate Silver is getting sneaky with his viral marketing
― the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:18 (three years ago) link
anyone who said this was going away in march should volunteer imo
125 scholars, from epidemiologists to philosophers & incl'g 15 Nobelists, call for challenge trials of #Covid_19 vaccines (volunteers agree to intentional exposure to virus, making efficacy--or not--apparent faster). Many interesting names: https://t.co/5x6M7Qq1HQ— sharon begley (@sxbegle) July 15, 2020
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:53 (three years ago) link
i would volunteer tbh
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:55 (three years ago) link
16. Peter Singer, Ira W. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics in the University Center for Human Values, Princeton University99. Steven Pinker, Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology, Harvard University
wait a second - are these two ever in the same room? i just assumed there was a clark kent thing going on with them, this could be big if they're actually different people
― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:56 (three years ago) link
i actually submitted a request to be a part of the phase 3 trials of one vaccine candidate. but that wouldn't involve being intentionally infected.
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 19:56 (three years ago) link
i am 1000% pro-vaccination, but i have the luxury of isolating for a while yet and i am not getting any vaccination that was developed on this compressed timeline, inside the US, while trump is president and has a political interest in cutting corners, unless it is also recommended by the german and south korean equivalents of the FDA.
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 20:01 (three years ago) link
that reads like one of those tweets from kamala harris about tax credits for people who meet 18 conditions.
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 20:07 (three years ago) link
honestly thanatos drives my desire to volunteer
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 20:28 (three years ago) link
i'd be less eager if there was zero chance of dying
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 20:29 (three years ago) link
California shatters record with more than 11,000 new coronavirus cases in one day https://t.co/oELya6TigN— Los Angeles Times (@latimes) July 15, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 21:09 (three years ago) link
pish, don't even try it CA, we got the record books on lock
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 21:19 (three years ago) link
The California numbers are incredibly skewed by Los Angeles County. Despite being just 1/4th of the state's population, more than 1/3 of the state's COVID cases are there, and over 1/2 of the fatalities. It's getting pretty insane, a smaller scale of rampant spreading we were seeing with NYC in March/April.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 21:34 (three years ago) link
population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockah
― the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 21:36 (three years ago) link
That Graun graph is still showing like that (also 138 deaths rather than 85) despite the figure in blue at the top of the page showing 538
― kinder, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 21:58 (three years ago) link
population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockahβ the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 5:36 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
β the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 5:36 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
there's literally no evidence that the relationship between population density and covid-19 incidence is causal fwiw. population density may also correlate with some other stuff that is causally related to covid transmission (inequality/race mainly), and there's some evidence that crowding (which is different density, because it's possible to build up, i.e. manhattan has low crowding) may be causally related too. but there's no evidence that, all things being equal, a place with a higher population density has a faster covid transmission rate.
if you don't believe me, look up the population density in hong kong, singapore, seoul, etc.
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:09 (three years ago) link
if the lesson we take from this is "cities are bad", we're fucked.
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:11 (three years ago) link
aren't hong kong, singapore, seoul, etc. places that implimented a plan and had broad compliance?
seems common sense that more people closer together would make for higher infection rate, since the disease is spread by...people...in close proximity
whatever the case, the notion β "cities are bad"
― singular wolf erotica producer (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:24 (three years ago) link
oh I want people to think cities are bad so they move to the suburbs and I can afford to move in
― rb (soda), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:27 (three years ago) link
Over here it's been less about population density and more about the number of people living in the same household and the working conditions they're pushed into.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:30 (three years ago) link
exactly? the reason LA and NYC and other cities in the US are getting hit hard is not density. it might be a third order effect (behind competence of/compliance with the response and inequality) but honestly there's no evidence even for that!
if you want another example: compare the covid rate in manhattan with that in the other four boroughs.
it does seem like common sense, but like i say, there is no evidence that it is true.
xp yup, home occupancy and local industry does seem to have a strong effect.
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:34 (three years ago) link
(and it's not splitting hairs to differentiate between home occupancy and population density if you're trying to figure out a rational response after this is over)
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:37 (three years ago) link
I was thinking the best measure would be comparing densely populated areas to sparsely populated ones, with a control of similar containment protocols.
That some densely populated cities are relatively unaffected compared to others says much less about population density than aboutt containment measures
― singular wolf erotica producer (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:38 (three years ago) link
well, it tells you population density is less important than the other differences between those cities, and that if the lesson we take is "we should move to the suburbs" then it won't help.
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:43 (three years ago) link
population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockahβ the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 2:36 PM (one hour ago)
β the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 2:36 PM (one hour ago)
It's only the 3rd most dense county in California, only 58% as dense as San Francisco.http://www.usa.com/rank/california-state--population-density--county-rank.htm
San Francisco has 50 COVID deaths in the past 20 weeks*, which is what LA had just yesterday by lunchtime.
(*0 in the last 30 days!)
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link
this has been done. i'll try to dig up the studies.
but the short version again: look at the five boroughs of new york city.
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link
I def hope some people move to the suburbs so I can live in their houses
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:47 (three years ago) link
good lessons that there is evidence for:
don't live 10 people to a dwellingmake working in a factory/warehouse/abbatoir saferhave a competent civil service and governmenthave a population that trusts its governmentdon't tie healthcare to employment
bad lessons there is no evidence for:
live in low population density settings
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:48 (three years ago) link
also that last one doesn't only not help. in a very real sense it will make the next pandemic more likely because it will accelerate the melting of the permafrost, releasing dormant viruses that we have no immunity for from the permafrost, killing us all haha fml.
― π ππ’π¨ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:49 (three years ago) link
lol
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:51 (three years ago) link
You can also see France as another counterexample to identifying population density and rona spread, in considering for example the regions of the Γle-de-France (where Paris is located) and the Grand Est (where Strasbourg and Nancy are located). The former is much more dense but the latter had a proportionally worse outbreak.
― Joey Corona (Euler), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 23:19 (three years ago) link
Wait thereβs a place in France called βNancyβ?
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 23:28 (three years ago) link
it's where they dance in fancy pants
― america's favorite (remy bean), Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:19 (three years ago) link
Yup, pronounced thusly:
https://forvo.com/word/nancy/#fr
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:23 (three years ago) link
I was ready to complain about French but that's not that egregious
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:29 (three years ago) link
Nancy the city is several centuries older than the English first name Nancy, so puh-leeze.
Interestingly, its German name is Nanzig (pronounced 'nan-tsikh', more or less).
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:34 (three years ago) link
does that mean we can call gdansk 'dancy'
― mookieproof, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:39 (three years ago) link
gsluggo
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:42 (three years ago) link
Seed
― nickn, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:44 (three years ago) link
You have chanced upon that city's true name. It is now yours for the taking.
2xp
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:45 (three years ago) link
Nancy is very nice! I was talking to my (American) parents about it recently, and said its name in the French way, and they had no idea what I was talking about until I sent a follow up email. Itβs not well known outside of France I guess but itβs a mΓ©tropole of 250,000 people. It has a UNESCO World Heritage Site! I am going to be spending a lot of time there so I can be your Nancy news network.
― Joey Corona (Euler), Thursday, 16 July 2020 07:44 (three years ago) link
Fuck me, there are some idiots out there
A week ago, Melbourne law firm HWL Ebsworth said they were going to keep working out of their office rather than βblindly following the lead of others like a lemming".They now have a cluster of 6 COVID-19 cases pic.twitter.com/zR58xdHN9B— Jeremy Story Carter (@jstorycarter) July 16, 2020
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Thursday, 16 July 2020 07:53 (three years ago) link
jonathan meades has a good episode or two about the architecture of nancy iirc
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 16 July 2020 08:02 (three years ago) link