pish, don't even try it CA, we got the record books on lock
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 21:19 (three years ago) link
The California numbers are incredibly skewed by Los Angeles County. Despite being just 1/4th of the state's population, more than 1/3 of the state's COVID cases are there, and over 1/2 of the fatalities. It's getting pretty insane, a smaller scale of rampant spreading we were seeing with NYC in March/April.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 21:34 (three years ago) link
population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockah
― the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 21:36 (three years ago) link
That Graun graph is still showing like that (also 138 deaths rather than 85) despite the figure in blue at the top of the page showing 538
― kinder, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 21:58 (three years ago) link
population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockahโ the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 5:36 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
โ the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 5:36 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
there's literally no evidence that the relationship between population density and covid-19 incidence is causal fwiw. population density may also correlate with some other stuff that is causally related to covid transmission (inequality/race mainly), and there's some evidence that crowding (which is different density, because it's possible to build up, i.e. manhattan has low crowding) may be causally related too. but there's no evidence that, all things being equal, a place with a higher population density has a faster covid transmission rate.
if you don't believe me, look up the population density in hong kong, singapore, seoul, etc.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:09 (three years ago) link
if the lesson we take from this is "cities are bad", we're fucked.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:11 (three years ago) link
aren't hong kong, singapore, seoul, etc. places that implimented a plan and had broad compliance?
seems common sense that more people closer together would make for higher infection rate, since the disease is spread by...people...in close proximity
whatever the case, the notion โ "cities are bad"
― singular wolf erotica producer (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:24 (three years ago) link
oh I want people to think cities are bad so they move to the suburbs and I can afford to move in
― rb (soda), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:27 (three years ago) link
Over here it's been less about population density and more about the number of people living in the same household and the working conditions they're pushed into.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:30 (three years ago) link
exactly? the reason LA and NYC and other cities in the US are getting hit hard is not density. it might be a third order effect (behind competence of/compliance with the response and inequality) but honestly there's no evidence even for that!
if you want another example: compare the covid rate in manhattan with that in the other four boroughs.
it does seem like common sense, but like i say, there is no evidence that it is true.
xp yup, home occupancy and local industry does seem to have a strong effect.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:34 (three years ago) link
(and it's not splitting hairs to differentiate between home occupancy and population density if you're trying to figure out a rational response after this is over)
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:37 (three years ago) link
I was thinking the best measure would be comparing densely populated areas to sparsely populated ones, with a control of similar containment protocols.
That some densely populated cities are relatively unaffected compared to others says much less about population density than aboutt containment measures
― singular wolf erotica producer (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:38 (three years ago) link
well, it tells you population density is less important than the other differences between those cities, and that if the lesson we take is "we should move to the suburbs" then it won't help.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:43 (three years ago) link
population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockahโ the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 2:36 PM (one hour ago)
โ the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 2:36 PM (one hour ago)
It's only the 3rd most dense county in California, only 58% as dense as San Francisco.http://www.usa.com/rank/california-state--population-density--county-rank.htm
San Francisco has 50 COVID deaths in the past 20 weeks*, which is what LA had just yesterday by lunchtime.
(*0 in the last 30 days!)
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link
this has been done. i'll try to dig up the studies.
but the short version again: look at the five boroughs of new york city.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link
I def hope some people move to the suburbs so I can live in their houses
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:47 (three years ago) link
good lessons that there is evidence for:
don't live 10 people to a dwellingmake working in a factory/warehouse/abbatoir saferhave a competent civil service and governmenthave a population that trusts its governmentdon't tie healthcare to employment
bad lessons there is no evidence for:
live in low population density settings
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:48 (three years ago) link
also that last one doesn't only not help. in a very real sense it will make the next pandemic more likely because it will accelerate the melting of the permafrost, releasing dormant viruses that we have no immunity for from the permafrost, killing us all haha fml.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:49 (three years ago) link
lol
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:51 (three years ago) link
You can also see France as another counterexample to identifying population density and rona spread, in considering for example the regions of the รle-de-France (where Paris is located) and the Grand Est (where Strasbourg and Nancy are located). The former is much more dense but the latter had a proportionally worse outbreak.
― Joey Corona (Euler), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 23:19 (three years ago) link
Wait thereโs a place in France called โNancyโ?
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 23:28 (three years ago) link
it's where they dance in fancy pants
― america's favorite (remy bean), Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:19 (three years ago) link
Yup, pronounced thusly:
https://forvo.com/word/nancy/#fr
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:23 (three years ago) link
I was ready to complain about French but that's not that egregious
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:29 (three years ago) link
Nancy the city is several centuries older than the English first name Nancy, so puh-leeze.
Interestingly, its German name is Nanzig (pronounced 'nan-tsikh', more or less).
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:34 (three years ago) link
does that mean we can call gdansk 'dancy'
― mookieproof, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:39 (three years ago) link
gsluggo
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:42 (three years ago) link
Seed
― nickn, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:44 (three years ago) link
You have chanced upon that city's true name. It is now yours for the taking.
2xp
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:45 (three years ago) link
Nancy is very nice! I was talking to my (American) parents about it recently, and said its name in the French way, and they had no idea what I was talking about until I sent a follow up email. Itโs not well known outside of France I guess but itโs a mรฉtropole of 250,000 people. It has a UNESCO World Heritage Site! I am going to be spending a lot of time there so I can be your Nancy news network.
― Joey Corona (Euler), Thursday, 16 July 2020 07:44 (three years ago) link
Fuck me, there are some idiots out there
A week ago, Melbourne law firm HWL Ebsworth said they were going to keep working out of their office rather than โblindly following the lead of others like a lemming".They now have a cluster of 6 COVID-19 cases pic.twitter.com/zR58xdHN9B— Jeremy Story Carter (@jstorycarter) July 16, 2020
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Thursday, 16 July 2020 07:53 (three years ago) link
jonathan meades has a good episode or two about the architecture of nancy iirc
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 16 July 2020 08:02 (three years ago) link
Which itself emerged from being a nickname for Ann
― the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, 16 July 2020 10:29 (three years ago) link
Like how you pronounce Annecy.
― Yerac, Thursday, 16 July 2020 13:55 (three years ago) link
It is now yours for the taking.
ooh, i've always wanted my own baltic port
― mookieproof, Thursday, 16 July 2020 14:33 (three years ago) link
Turns out Sweden is ok. This is a bit ranty but there are a few truths on the discourse (at least the way it went in the UK)
Ok. The virus is pretty much over and done with in Sweden for now. Who knows if it will come back in September/October? (no one that's who, anyone who claims to know is an idiot) so I'll do a little rant because the discourse has been absurdly stupid— grodaeu (@grodaeu) July 16, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:41 (three years ago) link
lol, that is very much not the consensus at all.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/sweden-says-latest-covid-immunity-not-enough-to-protect-citizens
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:52 (three years ago) link
Meanwhile, Swedenโs mortality rate per 100,000 is higher than that in the U.S.
^ seems pertinent
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:55 (three years ago) link
xp I read that thread and it seemed insane to me, didnโt it have the highest mortality rate of the Scandinavian nations? Who even is that person and what is their expertise?
― scampos mentis (gyac), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:56 (three years ago) link
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html
LONDON โ Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Swedenโs economy has fared little better.
This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Swedenโs economy has fared little better.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:59 (three years ago) link
I think this is quite the thing to write when people have been dying alone without family allowed to say goodbye or give them the last kiss. Not to mention the fact that covid kills people horribly and even the people it doesnโt kill can have problems for an as yet unknown time afterwards.
And then death numbers started to pop up. And suddenly a *hundred* years of medical practice of judging health hazards by lost life years was thrown out the window. One 93 year old with four other diseases dying was the same as one case of infant mortality— grodaeu (@grodaeu) July 16, 2020
― scampos mentis (gyac), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:59 (three years ago) link
They even acknowledged it a month ago:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-sweden-coronavirus-strategy-admits-too-many-died-anders-tegnell
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:00 (three years ago) link
More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:00 (three years ago) link
this somebody also says the US is being irresponsible if they keep schools closed in Fall in another tweet, and i have no idea who this person is, so forgive me if I don't just accept it at face value.
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:02 (three years ago) link
the note about the economy is important. their economy still suffered despite mostly remaining open.
their cases have been on a downward slope for the last 10-14 days or so, buuuuut "over", idk, just a little over a month ago naive Floridians thought our infection rates were so low taht bars being open was something that'd not get interrupted again and suddenly our spikes showed up at an alarming rate.
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:04 (three years ago) link
grodeau's point seems to be "lol it was just fuckin' old people fuck them"
xp well tbf sweden _is_ unlikely to get waves like those in the US given they haven't actually changed their behavior.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:05 (three years ago) link
gyac - don't know. With that first tweet I was taken aback because my understanding was that Sweden was fucked (however covid might have subsided recently like the rest of Europe) but what got me was the graphs discourse and what I liked was an acknowledgement of how much we just don't know or was a bit made up as we went along.
(It was RT-ed by a sane academic I've followed for a long time)
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:06 (three years ago) link
xpost yes very true
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:08 (three years ago) link
"I think this is quite the thing to write when people have been dying alone without family allowed to say goodbye or give them the last kiss. Not to mention the fact that covid kills people horribly and even the people it doesnโt kill can have problems for an as yet unknown time afterwards."
Not sure the tweet you linked warrants that. The tweet is about how do you count a death as due solely to covid (of a healthy infant) or what isn't quite (the 90 to with various issues).
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:09 (three years ago) link