aren't hong kong, singapore, seoul, etc. places that implimented a plan and had broad compliance?
exactly? the reason LA and NYC and other cities in the US are getting hit hard is not density. it might be a third order effect (behind competence of/compliance with the response and inequality) but honestly there's no evidence even for that!
if you want another example: compare the covid rate in manhattan with that in the other four boroughs.
it does seem like common sense, but like i say, there is no evidence that it is true.
xp yup, home occupancy and local industry does seem to have a strong effect.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:34 (three years ago) link
(and it's not splitting hairs to differentiate between home occupancy and population density if you're trying to figure out a rational response after this is over)
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:37 (three years ago) link
I was thinking the best measure would be comparing densely populated areas to sparsely populated ones, with a control of similar containment protocols.
That some densely populated cities are relatively unaffected compared to others says much less about population density than aboutt containment measures
― singular wolf erotica producer (Hadrian VIII), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:38 (three years ago) link
well, it tells you population density is less important than the other differences between those cities, and that if the lesson we take is "we should move to the suburbs" then it won't help.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:43 (three years ago) link
population density in being related to infectious disease transmission shockah― the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 2:36 PM (one hour ago)
― the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, July 15, 2020 2:36 PM (one hour ago)
It's only the 3rd most dense county in California, only 58% as dense as San Francisco.http://www.usa.com/rank/california-state--population-density--county-rank.htm
San Francisco has 50 COVID deaths in the past 20 weeks*, which is what LA had just yesterday by lunchtime.
(*0 in the last 30 days!)
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link
this has been done. i'll try to dig up the studies.
but the short version again: look at the five boroughs of new york city.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:44 (three years ago) link
I def hope some people move to the suburbs so I can live in their houses
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:47 (three years ago) link
good lessons that there is evidence for:
don't live 10 people to a dwellingmake working in a factory/warehouse/abbatoir saferhave a competent civil service and governmenthave a population that trusts its governmentdon't tie healthcare to employment
bad lessons there is no evidence for:
live in low population density settings
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:48 (three years ago) link
also that last one doesn't only not help. in a very real sense it will make the next pandemic more likely because it will accelerate the melting of the permafrost, releasing dormant viruses that we have no immunity for from the permafrost, killing us all haha fml.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:49 (three years ago) link
lol
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 22:51 (three years ago) link
You can also see France as another counterexample to identifying population density and rona spread, in considering for example the regions of the Île-de-France (where Paris is located) and the Grand Est (where Strasbourg and Nancy are located). The former is much more dense but the latter had a proportionally worse outbreak.
― Joey Corona (Euler), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 23:19 (three years ago) link
Wait there’s a place in France called “Nancy”?
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 15 July 2020 23:28 (three years ago) link
it's where they dance in fancy pants
― america's favorite (remy bean), Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:19 (three years ago) link
Yup, pronounced thusly:
https://forvo.com/word/nancy/#fr
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:23 (three years ago) link
I was ready to complain about French but that's not that egregious
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:29 (three years ago) link
Nancy the city is several centuries older than the English first name Nancy, so puh-leeze.
Interestingly, its German name is Nanzig (pronounced 'nan-tsikh', more or less).
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:34 (three years ago) link
does that mean we can call gdansk 'dancy'
― mookieproof, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:39 (three years ago) link
gsluggo
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:42 (three years ago) link
Seed
― nickn, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:44 (three years ago) link
You have chanced upon that city's true name. It is now yours for the taking.
2xp
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 00:45 (three years ago) link
Nancy is very nice! I was talking to my (American) parents about it recently, and said its name in the French way, and they had no idea what I was talking about until I sent a follow up email. It’s not well known outside of France I guess but it’s a métropole of 250,000 people. It has a UNESCO World Heritage Site! I am going to be spending a lot of time there so I can be your Nancy news network.
― Joey Corona (Euler), Thursday, 16 July 2020 07:44 (three years ago) link
Fuck me, there are some idiots out there
A week ago, Melbourne law firm HWL Ebsworth said they were going to keep working out of their office rather than “blindly following the lead of others like a lemming".They now have a cluster of 6 COVID-19 cases pic.twitter.com/zR58xdHN9B— Jeremy Story Carter (@jstorycarter) July 16, 2020
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Thursday, 16 July 2020 07:53 (three years ago) link
jonathan meades has a good episode or two about the architecture of nancy iirc
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 16 July 2020 08:02 (three years ago) link
Which itself emerged from being a nickname for Ann
― the word "restaurateur" doesn't have an n in it (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, 16 July 2020 10:29 (three years ago) link
Like how you pronounce Annecy.
― Yerac, Thursday, 16 July 2020 13:55 (three years ago) link
It is now yours for the taking.
ooh, i've always wanted my own baltic port
― mookieproof, Thursday, 16 July 2020 14:33 (three years ago) link
Turns out Sweden is ok. This is a bit ranty but there are a few truths on the discourse (at least the way it went in the UK)
Ok. The virus is pretty much over and done with in Sweden for now. Who knows if it will come back in September/October? (no one that's who, anyone who claims to know is an idiot) so I'll do a little rant because the discourse has been absurdly stupid— grodaeu (@grodaeu) July 16, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:41 (three years ago) link
lol, that is very much not the consensus at all.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/sweden-says-latest-covid-immunity-not-enough-to-protect-citizens
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:52 (three years ago) link
Meanwhile, Sweden’s mortality rate per 100,000 is higher than that in the U.S.
^ seems pertinent
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:55 (three years ago) link
xp I read that thread and it seemed insane to me, didn’t it have the highest mortality rate of the Scandinavian nations? Who even is that person and what is their expertise?
― scampos mentis (gyac), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:56 (three years ago) link
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html
LONDON — Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.
This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:59 (three years ago) link
I think this is quite the thing to write when people have been dying alone without family allowed to say goodbye or give them the last kiss. Not to mention the fact that covid kills people horribly and even the people it doesn’t kill can have problems for an as yet unknown time afterwards.
And then death numbers started to pop up. And suddenly a *hundred* years of medical practice of judging health hazards by lost life years was thrown out the window. One 93 year old with four other diseases dying was the same as one case of infant mortality— grodaeu (@grodaeu) July 16, 2020
― scampos mentis (gyac), Thursday, 16 July 2020 17:59 (three years ago) link
They even acknowledged it a month ago:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-sweden-coronavirus-strategy-admits-too-many-died-anders-tegnell
― pomenitul, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:00 (three years ago) link
More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:00 (three years ago) link
this somebody also says the US is being irresponsible if they keep schools closed in Fall in another tweet, and i have no idea who this person is, so forgive me if I don't just accept it at face value.
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:02 (three years ago) link
the note about the economy is important. their economy still suffered despite mostly remaining open.
their cases have been on a downward slope for the last 10-14 days or so, buuuuut "over", idk, just a little over a month ago naive Floridians thought our infection rates were so low taht bars being open was something that'd not get interrupted again and suddenly our spikes showed up at an alarming rate.
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:04 (three years ago) link
grodeau's point seems to be "lol it was just fuckin' old people fuck them"
xp well tbf sweden _is_ unlikely to get waves like those in the US given they haven't actually changed their behavior.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:05 (three years ago) link
gyac - don't know. With that first tweet I was taken aback because my understanding was that Sweden was fucked (however covid might have subsided recently like the rest of Europe) but what got me was the graphs discourse and what I liked was an acknowledgement of how much we just don't know or was a bit made up as we went along.
(It was RT-ed by a sane academic I've followed for a long time)
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:06 (three years ago) link
xpost yes very true
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:08 (three years ago) link
"I think this is quite the thing to write when people have been dying alone without family allowed to say goodbye or give them the last kiss. Not to mention the fact that covid kills people horribly and even the people it doesn’t kill can have problems for an as yet unknown time afterwards."
Not sure the tweet you linked warrants that. The tweet is about how do you count a death as due solely to covid (of a healthy infant) or what isn't quite (the 90 to with various issues).
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:09 (three years ago) link
Sweden's per capita death rate is insane but according to the FT coronavirus tracker both the number of cases and deaths is in decline. My assumption has been that's because people have been voluntarily locking themselves down but maybe there is a lower immunity threshold for reasons we don't understand yet. That last bit is probably wishful thinking.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:10 (three years ago) link
that's a legit question but I hate how it's constantly co-opted into "if you get run over by a train they'll count it as a COVID death"
― frogbs, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:11 (three years ago) link
xxxpost i'm just wary of people prematurely overreacting to too little data and saying it truly was "much ado about nothing", because outside of the obvious (that what Sweden did couldn't realistically be implemented in the states), nonetheless, scores of idiots will do exactly that (just as they did earlier this year) and more people will disobey mask/distancing orders and beat up greeters at Wal-Mart for politely asking them to put a mask on.
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:13 (three years ago) link
xp it’s also summer and people are probably outside, cases are dropping everywhere in Europe too
― scampos mentis (gyac), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:13 (three years ago) link
meanwhile you have actual assholes in the US writing articles theorizing the "Lockdown killed people!" when the cases and deaths started dramatically increasing when the lockdown stopped and people stopped caring about distancing, esp in my state!
xpost yeah that too.
― Lady Antibody (Neanderthal), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:14 (three years ago) link
"I think this is quite the thing to write when people have been dying alone without family allowed to say goodbye or give them the last kiss. Not to mention the fact that covid kills people horribly and even the people it doesn’t kill can have problems for an as yet unknown time afterwards."Not sure the tweet you linked warrants that. The tweet is about how do you count a death as due solely to covid (of a healthy infant) or what isn't quite (the 90 to with various issues).
― scampos mentis (gyac), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:18 (three years ago) link
I'm not reading callousness into that part of the thread, but ok.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:23 (three years ago) link
The point is not people overreacted because they were screeching hysterics. The point is that lockdown happened to avoid the kind of outcomes that happened, and that all got glossed over in that thread for the author to sneer at people for not knowing precisely how deadly the disease would be, or indeed for caring that the elderly died at all.
― scampos mentis (gyac), Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:26 (three years ago) link
I think the detail on the thread is to do with the incoherence of the approach, from Herd Immunity, and then when a lockdown was decided upon that there were guesses as to the length of it, lack of definition, the moralising park discourse and the like. That's otm to me.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 16 July 2020 18:32 (three years ago) link