Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

I'm sure name recognition is a factor. That's completely different from McElwee personally juking the stats.

She’ll get a cabinet position no doubt.

A brief rundown of recent polls and what to make of them
Polling so far has highlighted two key takeaways. One is that Warren’s and Harris’s respective profiles currently dwarf those of other contenders whose names have been floated, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) and Rep. Val Demings (D-FL). The other is that neither lawmaker is a runaway favorite. In the Yahoo News/YouGov and Monmouth University polls, neither Warren nor Harris secured a majority of respondents’ support, a sign that many voters are still open to other options.

Warren has ranked highly in several polls, particularly among younger voters.

In the mid-June Yahoo News/YouGov survey, Warren was up by 6 points with 30 percent support, compared with Harris’s 24 percent. They were followed by Abrams and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), both of whom picked up 14 percent backing. (Klobuchar has since withdrawn her name from consideration.)

As captured by the YouGov survey, Warren’s support isn’t the same across different demographics: She had particularly strong backing among voters aged 18-29 and 30-44, while she and Harris were more closely tied among voters ages 45-64 and 65 and older. Harris and Abrams both led Warren among Black voters, with 25 percent and 22 percent support, respectively, compared with Warren’s 15 percent.

Meanwhile, in Monmouth’s June poll, which surveyed Democratic primary voters predominantly located in Iowa and New Hampshire, Harris was the top choice overall. She picked up 28 percent support, followed by Warren with 13 percent, Klobuchar with 12 percent, and Abrams with 10 percent. The June USA Today/Suffolk poll, conducted more recently, also showed that Democratic voters were most excited about Harris, Abrams, and Warren, in that order.

warren on the ticket would make me excited tbh

Elizabeth Warren’s support is higher among Independent voters earning under $60,000 per year, with her modal supporter earning $20,000-30,000 per year. Harris’s support is higher among Independent voters earning over $70,000 per year, and with her strongest support coming from those earning more than $150,000 per year.

ah, is this due to name recognition or polling fraud?

She’ll get a cabinet position no doubt.

look, she might not be the best pick for all sorts of reasons. but your claim was she offers "absolute zero" electorally, whereas the other possibilities don't, which is just preposterous on its face.

She doesn't increase turnout among POC - the difference in 2012 and 2016 turnout and share among POC would have won the election for Hillary.
Her primary coalition was 'very liberal' graduate-degreed whites with high incomes - not a demographic that's going to stay home or vote for Trump.

The key sentence from McElwee - "Elizabeth Warren is currently the favorite among voters who reported they would vote for Joe Biden." That's not really an argument in her favor.

Warren would be a great pick if Biden resigns the day after his inauguration

if you consider Warren as nothing more than a local politician who can deliver MA (which doesn't need to be delivered) then milo's contention would make some sense. but she has a national profile and national standing and can deliver votes and donations from many, many states, so he's wrong.

Warren would be a great pick if Biden resigns the day after his inauguration
― Wayne Grotski (symsymsym), Tuesday, July 21, 2020 4:18 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is part of my rationale

^ this is a solid part of my hoping she is considered, the main part is that I want someone likely to regulate massive companies to fuck and, if possible, beyond

She’ll get a cabinet position no doubt.

I also think that someone actively campaigning on the "fuck billionaires" plank might resonate p well with voters in the second half of 2020

plus leaving the Senate for a cabinet position might not be worth it in the way VP to a POTUS with no fixed agenda could be

The key sentence from McElwee - "Elizabeth Warren is currently the favorite among voters who reported they would vote for Joe Biden." That's not really an argument in her favor.

this is the key sentence if you want to ignore the other sentences, sure.

real brain worms stuff here.

Even among the people who are "upset" about voting for Biden, Warren is the contender who commands the most support. Granted, she polls behind "someone else," but well ahead of any other named choice.

not exactly a ringing endorsement there

do you think he should not pick a vp?

not exactly a ringing endorsement there

― k*r*n koltrane (Simon H.), Tuesday, July 21, 2020

so what would you like in November?

Warren's replacement would be appointed by a GOP governor, for one thing

yes, that's the most important thing

think MA has special elections for senate vacancies?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-18/elizabeth-warren-s-path-to-becoming-vp-is-easier-than-it-looks

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/warren-or-sanders-presidency-could-cost-democrats-senate-seat-n1032421

"Then there’s the delay: Under Massachusetts state law, the governor must call for a special election 145 to 160 days after the vacancy — which means a Democrat, if he or she wins the special election, might not claim the Senate seat until months after a Warren presidency begins."

yeah, months of hearing you guys bitch about it, I don't know if that would be worth it.

:)

I was dissing Warren not Biden there tbc

people care about that clarification

we know, Simon

Even among the people who are "upset" about voting for Biden, Warren is the contender who commands the most support. Granted, she polls behind "someone else," but well ahead of any other named choice.

― jaymc, Tuesday, July 21, 2020 2:46 PM (two hours ago

polling behind "someone else" is not an endorsement

I thought that was Simon's point

it's going to be kamala let's all like it already

yup :(

certainly the CW https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5883/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination

my pick is warren or, failing that, karen bass (who will not run for P so someone better has a fair run after biden's term)

as long as she's an actual karen

xp I like both of them, but if it's kamala I think she will be great

it's possible even Biden's people are canny enough to know this is not a great time to pick a self-professed cop

a prosecutor is not a "cop," for fuck's sake, seriously?

If you want to argue specifically how Harris' record and her poor campaign eliminate her from consideration, I'm cool with it: I don't think she she should be on the short list. But "cop" as insult is just gross.

well on The Commish they showed Michael Chiklis doing street level busts so idk artistic liberty itt?

lol

we may disagree alfred but that remains a quite popular perception of harris

it's possible even Biden's people are canny enough to know this is not a great time to pick a self-professed cop

― k*r*n koltrane (Simon H.), Tuesday, July 21, 2020 5:26 PM

people don't see her as a cop, self-professed or not

do we have data

Attorneys general are fond of calling themselves ‘top cops’ IIRC

we may disagree alfred but that remains a quite popular perception of harris

Not among normal people.

we may disagree alfred but that remains a quite popular perception of harris

― k*r*n koltrane (Simon H.),

on Twitter, sure

Biden and his people definitely DGAF even if she’s seen as one though.

That's a more legitimate argument, actually, because a politician's first instinct is cynicism.

Biden’s still on the more cop funding train, he’s not going to shun someone for being a prosecutor or cop.