outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Google has officially pushed back reopening its offices by a year; Googlers are all working from home until July 2021. This will be the first of many such acknowledgments of the inevitable. https://t.co/OSoiJvWFLx

— Laurie Voss (@seldo) July 27, 2020

Been in western Kansas all day and have not felt so out of the “bubble” in a very long time. Counties out here opted out of mask mandates — apart from some businesses and buildings being closed you’d think all was normal. This is from a political meet and greet tonight pic.twitter.com/L7JSKyu2c4

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) July 27, 2020

more like a political hi and die

caek I'm officially wfh through the end of 2020 at minimum, this at a university department where as recently as February senior leadership was saying they were planning to consider devising updates to the remote work policy to be fractionally more flexible about it

i'm probably wrong about this on multiple levels, but it seems like the whole baseball thing might be a turning point of sorts in the US. for those who don't follow, the MLB season just opened the other day and already one of the teams (the florida marlins) has TWELVE players with covid19, along with 2 coaches. games are already being cancelled, and the story is just beginning. if/when multiple teams encounter this, it's likely the season will be cancelled. (note that this is me just being an internet guy, guessing).

in spring, the schools shutting down was one of those turning points - a lot of people didn't start to grapple with the repercussions until then, even though it was obviously a HUGE and obvious thing that those with eyes to see could see coming for weeks. the baseball thing is obviously very different, but it might serve as a similar marker of public acceptance/denial in the US.

As support for Karl Malone's point, I think the real "wait this is serious" moment for a lot of people was not so much schools closing as the NBA shutting down.

we have now crossed completely into the era of Magical Thinking

As support for Karl Malone's point, I think the real "wait this is serious" moment for a lot of people was not so much schools closing as the NBA shutting down.

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, July 27, 2020 12:31 PM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i've been collecting these because it's also the night my wife went into labor and i figure one day my son might want to read them

An Oral History of the Day Everything Changed
On March 11, 2020, the coronavirus pandemic seemed to crystallize in the national consciousness. Americans look back on the turning point
https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-day-everything-changed-coronavirus/

'Then God said, "Hold my beer"': The inside story of the night that changed L.A. clubs forever
An oral history of the coronavirus pandemic, as told by the staffs of four iconic L.A. nightclubs: the Troubadour, McCabe's Guitar Shop, Sound and the Satellite
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/music/story/2020-06-02/la-nightclubs-coronavirus-troubadour-mccabes-sound-satellite

(tom hanks announced he had it and trump suspended non-resident entry from europe, plus the NBA, all in the space of about 2 hours)

caek I'm officially wfh through the end of 2020 at minimum, this at a university department where as recently as February senior leadership was saying they were planning to consider devising updates to the remote work policy to be fractionally more flexible about it

― all cats are beautiful (silby), Monday, July 27, 2020 11:54 AM (fifty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i was already fully remote, my employer moved their reopen date back to october a few weeks ago, but i suspect they'll move it back again.

i'm also dabbling with interviewing right now, and am making it clear that i will still be remote after this is over and a bunch of places that are (in)famous for being anti-remote are all like: yeah, whatever, no problem, i don't think we're coming back any time soon.

xxp
“I’m never leaving a party early ever again.”

love too be currently unemployed with no end in sight

small mercies, but there's a pretty clear flattening of US cases (this data is from states/cities, not the federal govt)

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-positive

(tom hanks announced he had it and trump suspended non-resident entry from europe, plus the NBA, all in the space of about 2 hours)

yea this was a seriously surreal moment especially since it was preceded by weeks of "uhh...is this going to hit the USA?"

there was a time when every time someone coughed there'd be a dude saying "heh heh....coronavirus" and everyone would laugh...

3/10 was awful. woke up hungover from a concert that I hd a blast at the night before to see the world was permanently changing. i basically started quarantining immediately even before the shutdown orders, so I didn't get much in the way of wind-downs with friends. our rehearsals for Fringe and the fundraiser I was doing were cancelled immediately. some of them I haven't seen in person since.

it's not like there was NO warning before 3/10. it just...got to where it did faster than we expected.

I was starting to worry on 3/9 after the Waffle House I went into was devoid of condiments and sparking clean like the restaurant just opened. said if Waffle House is taking this seriously enough to not operate like a waffle house then damn

I mean...I'm pretty up on current events, pretty much every medical expert outside of Trumps people said it was gonna go from 2 to 200 to 50000 basically overnight, but yeah I was just like..."cmon, that shit doesn't just happen"

like I remember asking the managers at work "uh..is there any plan for this" and they were all like, "nothing yet, we'll wait and see", which was weird to hear when an entire sports league just cancelled their season...any time pro sports is disrupted it's a pretty big deal no?

the part I didn't anticipate was the length of time it was gonna take, I figured "ok we all quarantine 2-3 weeks and then we'll know who has it and who doesn't"...back then it wasn't really clear what this was, it was just "kinda the flu but it's randomly killing people"

I kept getting emails about moving online during our very early spring break, the first full week of March, and so on the 9th and 11th, I took time from each class I was teaching to talk about what was going to happen if we moved courses online, polling students about their preferences, and also taking questions. By the time I let class go on the 11th and got in my car to go home, I was pretty convinced that nothing was ever going to be the same.

And then that weekend, asking my mother whether we could have some toilet paper because we were running low, and she said, "I can spare about 6 rolls," I was like, "jesus fuck."

I remember that first weekend of March, the 7th/8th, things were getting worrisome in NY. Everyone at my school wanted to close - parents immediately started pulling their children, and everyday classes were getting smaller and smaller. Finally that Friday the district allowed us to shut down over the weekend, and a couple of days afterward NY formally went on pause.

Saw a couple of movies that first week of March, actually, now that maybe weren't safe to be at. Then again, I think my screening of Wake in Fright had like five people there total, so...

caek, I know nothing about your situation but I changed jobs in June. Weirdest possible time to do so.

Roughly, in 4 weeks I did about 15 interviews with 10 companies and got 3 offers. No company was even considering in-person operations any time soon. Everyone I talked to had no expectations other than remote work for the foreseeable future.

Your industry may vary but that is what I found.

i'm in tech. i've done maybe half a dozen informational calls so far. just today i had the first call where they said: we're remote now, but we're not talking to anyone who isn't willing to relocate to us in the new year and i was like "lmao i have you seen the news? ok good luck this that!"

if anyone in the US needs a test and can't get an appointment, or local results are taking weeks to return, then give https://www.everlywell.com/ a try. recommended to me by a virologist i know who happens to be in florida where delays are pretty bad. 3 days to get the test, 3 days to get the results after you take it. $109 out of pocket but should be reimbursable.

This is good news: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/health/covid-antibodies-herd-immunity.html

Sounds like the whole people-getting-reinfected thing is somewhere between anecdotal and straight-up inaccurate.

I went to the big Asian grocery store on March 8th and basically all of the rice, noodles, and preserved vegetables were gone which is when I started to freak out a bit. My university closed downing the 11th and on Friday the 13th I picked my kid up from preschool for what turned out to be the last time.

clipped from the US politics thread:

i kept looking at Vietnam and their ZERO deaths, thinking that of course they must be suppressing what's actually happening...

― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Monday, July 27, 2020 12:19 PM (two hours ago)

I just read the story of an expat 42 year old British immigrant pilot who contracted the virus and spent 68 days on a ventilator while VN doctors did everything they could to save his life and prevent their country from having their first fatality...

...and it worked! He lived to tell his story:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-53544345

His lung capacity dropped to 10% of normal VO2 and he was a potential candidate for double lung transplant (!!!), losing ~66lbs/30kg over the course of the ordeal.

And after surviving that ordeal he has to go back to Motherwell, poor guy.

I was pleasantly surprised to hear that that pilot survived, thought he would be the first casualty here in Vietnam. After three months with zero community cases, we're finally seeing new cases in Da Nang, quickly spreading there. Govt has not hesitated to quarantine whole buildings here, so already more than 1000 people have been quarantined. Hope that that is enough to stop it; I was looking forward to not teaching online anymore

Lots of reporting on how curves are miraculously flattening in Texas, Florida & New Mexico even tho mitigation efforts have been minimal. Equally as miraculous is how quickly the curves began to flatten only two weeks after hospitals were ordered to bypass the CDC w/ case data.

— KC Says Fuck A Lot (@strychninelove) July 28, 2020

Hmmm, not sure that I agree with this from a Texas perspective. There's been a statewide mask mandate, shutdown of all bars, and reduction in overall business capacity among other things. This has led to a real decrease in some areas, while others are still struggling. I believe it is neither miraculous nor misleading, and there's still a lot of work to be done before we reach any kind of acceptable level.

Good news for wee guys

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/tall-people-more-risk-catching-18674866

The study found that being tall, specifically being over 6ft, more than doubled the probability of having COVID-19.

(subject to peer review)

Nae luck, big yin.

<blockquote>Lots of reporting on how curves are miraculously flattening in Texas, Florida & New Mexico even tho mitigation efforts have been minimal. Equally as miraculous is how quickly the curves began to flatten only two weeks after hospitals were ordered to bypass the CDC w/ case data.</blockquote>

unless something changed at the state and local level 2 weeks ago, this is FUD and bullshit fwiw.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-positive
https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/cases-by-state

<blockquote>Almost all of the data we compile is taken directly from the websites of local or state/territory public health authorities. Where data is missing from these websites, we supplement available numbers with information from official press conferences with governors or public health authorities.</blockquote>

lol html sorry

i've seen lots of the CDC/HHS conspiracy stuff online, it's disheartening

Yeah it's still very serious

yeah the complete collapse of trust is the worst thing about this (well, that and all the dying)

I have an unusually large number of teacher friends as my best friend from high school married a teacher who has a ton of teacher friends, and most of them are flipping the fuck out about the Executive Order demanding giving an in-person option.

supposedly they've been told accommodations will be made "where possible" for those teachers who prefer to work only at home due to COVID, but there's not a lot of faith there.

I do feel for the parents who need day care options to return to work, especially those that weren't budgeted to have to pay for day care in the Fall, but....every time I see a parent talking about schools needing to re-open, it's never due to "I don't want him to fall behind", it's always "I need you to watch him so I can return to work". The government failed both parents and teachers, but parents are starting to show their asses here to the teachers a bit.

One of my friends insisted the option to have one or two days on, the rest virtual during the week would be bad, because they'd come into contact with other kids at day care who might be infected, and a "family style" classroom of 12-20 people, the same people each day, would be much safer. I didn't have the heart to ask her how she was fully assured these children would come into contact with no other people outside of the classroom, which was her main gripe with the "2 on, 3 virtual" option - or that they wouldn't be the kids of parents who didn't believe in masks. or that classrooms would be 12-20, when most of my teacher friends are seeing rosters of 30+ kids.

in the words of the Descendents, "parents, why won't they shut up?"

america needs child care as much or more than it needs schools but that's not a conversation we're having

The problem is the Government has basically pitted parents and teachers on opposite sides when both are getting failed disastrously by the Federal, and some state governments

I was chatting with my mechanic yesterday and I was so happy that he shared my relief at schools staying closed.

it's never due to "I don't want him to fall behind", it's always "I need you to watch him so I can return to work".

I don't really see how "2 in person, 3 virtual" is a whole lot better. yes you increase the chances an infected kids catches themselves before returning to school but most kids seem to have mild or no symptoms.

every time I see a parent talking about schools needing to re-open, it's never due to "I don't want him to fall behind", it's always "I need you to watch him so I can return to work". The government failed both parents and teachers, but parents are starting to show their asses here to the teachers a bit.

I mean...yeah? Despite the fact that we're in a worse place than we were in March a lot of companies are still planning to bring employees back to the office in 4-6 weeks. so a lot of parents are having to make the choice between quitting their job at a time when unemployment is skyrocking and no real benefits are on the horizon (thanks Trump) vs. taking the risk of sending their kids back.

When you consider the argument that our Governor and Education Commissioner have used as the excuse for re-opening schools, absofuckinglutely. They have stated the reason to re-open schools and give the parents choice is so that children will receive a quality education and not be left behind - to give parents choice in their child's education. The unspoken reason, nationwide, is "we want more people to return to work and want to pay less people unemployment benefits", which is why they're obviously letting Federal unemployment expire before MAYBE renewing it with something much weaker. They know parents can't wait around for whatever that is, and with schools open for their children and the hefty costs of private childcare (and shrinking availability due to COVID-19), this is their only method of having someone care for their kids so they can work. The education is completely secondary.

the primary job of a teacher isn't to provide day care, just like it is not to wield guns to ward off armed campus invaders. it's to provide education. the caring for the child during the day is a secondary function - a function, yes, but not the primary aim.

At a normal time of year, that's a negligible point. During a pandemic, when you live in a state that is one of the epicenters of the outbreak, that has had child hospitalizations increase 35% in the last week, and, flattened or no, still has a phenomenally high number of new cases per day, being a teacher and being told that parents have choice, but that YOU may not have choice whether you get to avoid going into the building or not....is all kinds of fucked up. Teachers are allowed to indicate their preference to work from home, but have been told they might not be allowed that accommodation.

There is no indication that children will be required to wear masks. Social distancing WILL not happen. One of my friends received a roster of 35-40 people, and as an experiment, went into her classroom arranged the desks 6 feet apart, and was only able to get 12 desks in there. Kids will be mushed together.

Striking for teachers is prohibited in Florida since 1974 - you can lose your teaching license, have your pay frozen, and forfeit your Pension. So they have no leverage to organize or refuse to show up. Basically, if they're told they have to go into the classroom, and perhaps they have a spouse at home that is at a higher risk, they either have to show up and risk it, or quit and try to find a new career, with no unemployment (due to quitting their job), and a job market that is sketchy in the midst of a pandemic.

I've had people dismissively tell my friend's wife she should just "suck it up or find another job", to which she's stated "I didn't get a Master's degree and work my young adult life for this only to discard my career because I'm viewed as dispensable by the state".

So yeah, treating teachers like they are just glorified babysitters whose own rights don't matter, when there could have been other options is extremely fucking insulting. I don't blame parents for that, because they're equally fucked by the same government. but it is still fucked.

xxpost

I'm also a bit fired up about this because the Education Commissioner is deliberately cherry-picking COVID data to insinuate this is low-risk and that teachers are just being fuckin' stupid about it, and pretending to give a shit about education despite deliberately making cuts to and underfunding it, year after year.

additionally, the start date for virtual classes was bumped up two weeks in Orange County with no warning to the teachers. they have to be ready Friday instead of 8/13

but most kids seem to have mild or no symptoms.

https://www.axios.com/children-coronavirus-florida-hospitalizations-def62d48-7a89-46a4-9654-f2dcfe365325.html

Coronavirus cases in youths have greatly increased in Florida, with total infections up 34% and hospitalizations up 23% between July 16 and 24, according to the Florida Department of Health.

The big picture: The increase from 23,170 confirmed COVID-19 cases in youths to 31,150 in just eight days comes as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and the Trump administration continue to aggressively push for schools to resume in-person classes in August.

By the numbers: 36% of the cases in children are patients between the ages of 14 and 17, according to Florida's data. That age group also accounts for the majority of children hospitalized (34%).

The state's positivity rate among youths has also gone up, increasing from 13.4% to 14.4% between July 16 and 24, per Florida's health department.
Researchers are still studying how quickly the coronavirus is transmitted among children as schools and child care centers begin to reopen.

and whether they have milder symptoms or not, the teachers they pass it to may not.

right - what I'm trying to say is having mild/no symptoms is a bad thing since the plan for businesses/schools/Major League Baseball seems to be "well if someone's sick hopefully they isolate themselves before they infect everyone else". I thought this was why the "2 days on, 3 days virtual" plan made sense to some people