outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Florida reports lowest daily increase in cases since June. It's still going up, just not as fast. that stat juking still needs time to ramp up imo

I'm all for us tripping our way out of this, but this is a pretty wild idea.

You know, secretly drug the populace into submission - what could go wrong?!

i am fairly certain there have been multiple Batman plots based on that idea

xpost sales of Metal Machine Music will go through the roof

Can anyone in the UK recommend a mask for people with big faces? I have a big head. A very big nose too. I can never find a mask that stretches from nose to chin properly. Any recommendations?

(The best mask I have is the one I sewed myself, but I don’t have a sewing machine so it’s a hassle to make them.)

this is my favorite. https://propercloth.com/products/the-everyday-mask-991.html.

i have backups that i wear if it's being washed or whatever, and i don't particularly like the way this one looks, but it fits me so much better than any of the others (i have a massive head apparently). it's expensive. they ship to the UK although i dread to think of the price. last resort for you probably.

I have a cloth mask that ties behind the head with 2 straps. It's a bit harder to put on and off, but I don't like having elastic bands putting pressure on the backs of my ears. Of course I always wear it when going inside shops or anywhere, but walking around, especially early in the morning or late at night when not many people are out, I usually keep it around my neck, so I can quickly pull it back up over my face if I see someone coming towards me on the sidewalk. Once I was a bit slow in reacting, and someone stepped off the sidewalk to pass me, and I was mask-shamed, by them muttering under their breath. Fair enough, I deserved it. Now I am vigilant. I notice a lot of people seem to follow the same protocol, because I see them quickly reaching to pull up their mask when they see me coming.

I wear a size 7 3/4 fitted hat (pretty large) and the disposables plus an earsaver are the most comfortable for me.

I "sewed" the earsaver out of a strip of nylon and two buttons.

Like this
https://sewing.patternreview.com/images/thumbnails/pattern/163744/photo1.jpg

Those propercloth ones look nice - elastic bands around the back of the head are nicer (to me) than the ones that go around your ears.

I'd like a nicer, more breathable mask, but it's hard to justify the cost of paying that much for a mask vs. $0.50 in bulk for the disposables, which is arguably safer anyway

NSW is playing whack-a-mole with cases in schools popping up all over the place, leading to mass isolation on student bodies and faculty. If NSW goes back into lockdown it will probably be cause of school outbreaks.

Also the case profile in Victoria, where our big outbreak is and where I am in lockdown skews very young

The Victorian government has just released data on Covid-19 cases by age group: pic.twitter.com/RZU1jFRZVG

— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) August 11, 2020

None of this looks great for reopening schools elsewhere

Russia has just registered the first COVID-19 vaccine, though there is a huge amount of scepticism as to how many shortcuts might have been taken in getting it out.

In theory, available to the public in January.

It's been approved before the completion of clinical trials. What happens if those trials conclude that the vaccine is either ineffective or unsafe?

This is of marginal interest but it looks like deaths in the home have gone up in Scotland (where there is more data to play with, in itself a question as to what else could be missing from English data).

Yes, that's what I meant, apologies if I wasn't clear.

The displacement of cardiovascular deaths seems to have reduced in a way that hasn't (yet) happened for cancer.

This plot maybe shows it even more clearly: pic.twitter.com/8Nco2yeWiv

— Colin Angus (@VictimOfMaths) August 5, 2020

First new cases in 102 days in New Zealand tonight, all in the same family in Auckland. Also a care home in Christchurch has gone into isolation due to an outbreak of "respiratory illness"

Russia has just registered the first COVID-19 vaccine, though there is a huge amount of scepticism as to how many shortcuts might have been taken in getting it out.

In Soviet Russia, vaccines test YOU.

This is of marginal interest but it looks like deaths in the home have gone up in Scotland

Seems like the overall numbers for cancer deaths align with the 5 year average but the location has moved, meaning (presumably) either more people are being sent home to die from it or are simply not being admitted to hospital.
Perhaps in the current climate people are less likely to phone an ambulance?
With many cancer screening and treatment programmes suspended we may still see a rise in cancer deaths in the coming months/years.

Also people are just afraid to go to a hospital or to the doctors. It's a disaster in the making.

Will read this later

if you're interested in how national Coronavirus responses integrate with political systems, this is really good: https://t.co/6JjDteVQnO

— jamie k (@jkbloodtreasure) August 11, 2020

xp, FWIW, in the US, deaths of children are lower this year than last. less travel, less cars on the road, etc. i assume the same thing has happened in the UK.

Peter Hessler is fantastic, only a little way through that piece and now I have to start work but I’m looking forward to the rest.

xpost I *think* I saw somewhere that road accidents are down but deaths are ... up?

yes, I saw that too. i think speeding is assumed to be the explanation.

The few times I've ventured out on the highways there have been at least one or two cars passing by at 90+mph when the flow of traffic was 65-70mph.

The Hessler piece is great.

I always thought it was going to be some combination of the climate emergency and peak oil that was going to doom faith in classic corvettes-n-beer liberal democracies but this pandemic has really shot from the back of the pack.

pre-covid FDA report on drugs and vaccines that have failed phase 3 trials. seems like it's rare but it happens.

https://www.fda.gov/media/102332/download

4 new cases in NZ after 100+ days of 0. they are talking about it coming in on freight, which is worrying.

Occam's Razor indicates it probably came in from a person.

The 1976 flu vaccine and attempted mass inoculation debacle, the one that in a lot of ways really set the anti-vac movement in motion, how far along in the testing process did that vaccine make it before they gave the go ahead?

definitely don't want to play a direct role in duterte in dying, not saying that, just saying if he happens to die from covid-19 or a russian vaccine, not everyone in the world would be sad

Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte has offered to be the first to participate in Russia’s trials of a covid-19 vaccine, despite concerns that Moscow’s treatment has not yet received regulatory approval or been rigorously tested.

pre-covid FDA report on drugs and vaccines that have failed phase 3 trials. seems like it's rare but it happens.

https://www.fda.gov/media/102332/download

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, August 12, 2020 2:24 AM (fourteen hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I only read the intro and discussion sections of this but if I’m understanding your conclusion correctly (that if a drug makes it to phase 3 trials, failure is unlikely) I don’t think that’s really the case. I will look for some more data that aim to be comprehensive later. (I bet vinay prasad has studied this question, if you want to beat me to it.)

Marion County (FL) Sheriff Billy Woods on Tuesday told his deputies that they are prohibited from wearing masks while on duty just as Florida set a new daily record for COVID-19 fatalities.

According to the Ocala Star-Banner, Woods wrote in an email to the sheriff’s department on Tuesday that “my order will stand as is when you are on-duty/working as my employee and representing my Office – masks will not be worn.”

Woods’ order also applies to visitors to the sheriff’s office, but makes exceptions for officers in locations where there are people who are at high-risk or suspected of having contracted COVID-19, such as hospitals.

so wait. if for some reason i walk into the sheriff's office in Marion County, FL, i will be ordered to NOT wear a mask? i'm sure there are some legal arguments happening right now about whether or not you can force someone to wear a mask. but, can you force someone to not wear something that adds to their protection and offends or affects no one else?

hey you there - no sunscreen allowed on this beach, pardner

It's a good question, actually. I'm assuming they can force you to temporarily lower it, to verify ID. Or, like, getting your driver's license or passport picture taken, sure. But forbid you from putting it back up after? Yeah, I don't see how that's legal.

I only read the intro and discussion sections of this but if I’m understanding your conclusion correctly (that if a drug makes it to phase 3 trials, failure is unlikely) I don’t think that’s really the case. I will look for some more data that aim to be comprehensive later. (I bet vinay prasad has studied this question, if you want to beat me to it.)

― k3vin k., Wednesday, August 12, 2020 4:40 PM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i think the report's implied conclusion is that "we can't get rid of phase 3 (apparently a think people were talking about a couple years back) because > 0 failures have occurred in phase 3". which... fair enough?

i can't tell if it's supposed to be a complete list of all the phase 3 failures in some period, or it's just some examples. i think it's examples though. so "rare" may not strictly be the right word. but reading between the lines, i get the impression that phase 3 failure is not *common* either. if you have numbers i'd be interested.

which is ... good and bad news i guess?

the good news is that the probability of *all* advanced trials failing phase 3 is seems like it's very low. just as an example, suppose these ten or so vaccinations can be considered truly independent (they're not, but there's at least a few very different approaches). and suppose 50% of phase 3 trials fail (which seems high, but whatever). the probability that they *all* fail is the same as the probability of tossing ten heads in a row, which happens about 1/1000th of the time. at least one of these will probably pass phase 3!

the bad news is that, since the phase 3 failure rate is not *zero* we can't skip phase 3. Like you might skip it if the drug was going to be given to a small number of people who were going to die. but we're talking about mass vaccination of hundreds of millions of currently healthy people will get the vaccination.

Let's just all take all ten and see what happens.

yeah let's us the time more usefully by posting on the joe biden thread

*use

I hope you all enjoy your vaccines because Australia is doing fuck all to secure any supplies of potential vaccines.

apologies if this is paywalled, but what happened in LA is covered well here, and is a applies to a lot of the US

https://www.latimes.com/projects/how-rushed-la-reopening-sparked-covid-19-cases/#nt=1col-7030col1-main

https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/08/toronto-anti-maskers-say-cherry-beach-chainsaw-guys-destroyed-their-dj-booth/

This kind of thing happened in the former Soviet states in the 1990s, after they’d lost the Cold War and had their economy turned into an abattoir by the Chicago school. Our government is doing it voluntarily for shits and giggles. https://t.co/4CCMc00iEC

— derek davison (@dwdavison) August 15, 2020

phase 3 trials often show up problems that can kill a drug's approval

Discussed a few posts back. How often?

here's one thing I'm still confused on - how long after exposure to or having close contact with someone that has COVID do you then become contagious?

every site says something like 48-72 hours before symptoms start, but what about asymptomatic people? If someone infected sneezes on them, are they, like, immediately a vector, or it takes maybe 2-3 days?

I realize there's a lot we don't know but I'm not sure if we have more info on this that I can't find.

i mean, the virus has to be able to replicate significantly, i can't imagine anyone could spread it in less than 24 hours, 2-3 days seems reasonable? maybe countries with excellent contact tracing could try to figure it out, but it's not the easiest thing to study.

I'd assume it's the same for asymptomatic, but they may be a little less contagious

Is there a Covid Conspiracy thread anywhere?

As I have some former close friends on my social media feeds who appear to have swallowed right-wing brain worms in the last few years and are now posting David Icke videos and claiming things like the vaccine is going to be mandatory for everyone and is going to make large numbers of people infertile and other crazy shit, so am looking for some sourced rebuttals