outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

yes, I saw that too. i think speeding is assumed to be the explanation.

The few times I've ventured out on the highways there have been at least one or two cars passing by at 90+mph when the flow of traffic was 65-70mph.

The Hessler piece is great.

I always thought it was going to be some combination of the climate emergency and peak oil that was going to doom faith in classic corvettes-n-beer liberal democracies but this pandemic has really shot from the back of the pack.

pre-covid FDA report on drugs and vaccines that have failed phase 3 trials. seems like it's rare but it happens.

https://www.fda.gov/media/102332/download

4 new cases in NZ after 100+ days of 0. they are talking about it coming in on freight, which is worrying.

Occam's Razor indicates it probably came in from a person.

The 1976 flu vaccine and attempted mass inoculation debacle, the one that in a lot of ways really set the anti-vac movement in motion, how far along in the testing process did that vaccine make it before they gave the go ahead?

definitely don't want to play a direct role in duterte in dying, not saying that, just saying if he happens to die from covid-19 or a russian vaccine, not everyone in the world would be sad

Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte has offered to be the first to participate in Russia’s trials of a covid-19 vaccine, despite concerns that Moscow’s treatment has not yet received regulatory approval or been rigorously tested.

pre-covid FDA report on drugs and vaccines that have failed phase 3 trials. seems like it's rare but it happens.

https://www.fda.gov/media/102332/download

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, August 12, 2020 2:24 AM (fourteen hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I only read the intro and discussion sections of this but if I’m understanding your conclusion correctly (that if a drug makes it to phase 3 trials, failure is unlikely) I don’t think that’s really the case. I will look for some more data that aim to be comprehensive later. (I bet vinay prasad has studied this question, if you want to beat me to it.)

Marion County (FL) Sheriff Billy Woods on Tuesday told his deputies that they are prohibited from wearing masks while on duty just as Florida set a new daily record for COVID-19 fatalities.

According to the Ocala Star-Banner, Woods wrote in an email to the sheriff’s department on Tuesday that “my order will stand as is when you are on-duty/working as my employee and representing my Office – masks will not be worn.”

Woods’ order also applies to visitors to the sheriff’s office, but makes exceptions for officers in locations where there are people who are at high-risk or suspected of having contracted COVID-19, such as hospitals.

so wait. if for some reason i walk into the sheriff's office in Marion County, FL, i will be ordered to NOT wear a mask? i'm sure there are some legal arguments happening right now about whether or not you can force someone to wear a mask. but, can you force someone to not wear something that adds to their protection and offends or affects no one else?

hey you there - no sunscreen allowed on this beach, pardner

It's a good question, actually. I'm assuming they can force you to temporarily lower it, to verify ID. Or, like, getting your driver's license or passport picture taken, sure. But forbid you from putting it back up after? Yeah, I don't see how that's legal.

I only read the intro and discussion sections of this but if I’m understanding your conclusion correctly (that if a drug makes it to phase 3 trials, failure is unlikely) I don’t think that’s really the case. I will look for some more data that aim to be comprehensive later. (I bet vinay prasad has studied this question, if you want to beat me to it.)

― k3vin k., Wednesday, August 12, 2020 4:40 PM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i think the report's implied conclusion is that "we can't get rid of phase 3 (apparently a think people were talking about a couple years back) because > 0 failures have occurred in phase 3". which... fair enough?

i can't tell if it's supposed to be a complete list of all the phase 3 failures in some period, or it's just some examples. i think it's examples though. so "rare" may not strictly be the right word. but reading between the lines, i get the impression that phase 3 failure is not *common* either. if you have numbers i'd be interested.

which is ... good and bad news i guess?

the good news is that the probability of *all* advanced trials failing phase 3 is seems like it's very low. just as an example, suppose these ten or so vaccinations can be considered truly independent (they're not, but there's at least a few very different approaches). and suppose 50% of phase 3 trials fail (which seems high, but whatever). the probability that they *all* fail is the same as the probability of tossing ten heads in a row, which happens about 1/1000th of the time. at least one of these will probably pass phase 3!

the bad news is that, since the phase 3 failure rate is not *zero* we can't skip phase 3. Like you might skip it if the drug was going to be given to a small number of people who were going to die. but we're talking about mass vaccination of hundreds of millions of currently healthy people will get the vaccination.

Let's just all take all ten and see what happens.

yeah let's us the time more usefully by posting on the joe biden thread

*use

I hope you all enjoy your vaccines because Australia is doing fuck all to secure any supplies of potential vaccines.

apologies if this is paywalled, but what happened in LA is covered well here, and is a applies to a lot of the US

https://www.latimes.com/projects/how-rushed-la-reopening-sparked-covid-19-cases/#nt=1col-7030col1-main

https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/08/toronto-anti-maskers-say-cherry-beach-chainsaw-guys-destroyed-their-dj-booth/

This kind of thing happened in the former Soviet states in the 1990s, after they’d lost the Cold War and had their economy turned into an abattoir by the Chicago school. Our government is doing it voluntarily for shits and giggles. https://t.co/4CCMc00iEC

— derek davison (@dwdavison) August 15, 2020

phase 3 trials often show up problems that can kill a drug's approval

Discussed a few posts back. How often?

here's one thing I'm still confused on - how long after exposure to or having close contact with someone that has COVID do you then become contagious?

every site says something like 48-72 hours before symptoms start, but what about asymptomatic people? If someone infected sneezes on them, are they, like, immediately a vector, or it takes maybe 2-3 days?

I realize there's a lot we don't know but I'm not sure if we have more info on this that I can't find.

i mean, the virus has to be able to replicate significantly, i can't imagine anyone could spread it in less than 24 hours, 2-3 days seems reasonable? maybe countries with excellent contact tracing could try to figure it out, but it's not the easiest thing to study.

I'd assume it's the same for asymptomatic, but they may be a little less contagious

Is there a Covid Conspiracy thread anywhere?

As I have some former close friends on my social media feeds who appear to have swallowed right-wing brain worms in the last few years and are now posting David Icke videos and claiming things like the vaccine is going to be mandatory for everyone and is going to make large numbers of people infertile and other crazy shit, so am looking for some sourced rebuttals

I wish that sourced rebuttals worked with the cases I know about, who trust nothing (except obviously the mad sites they get this stuff from)

Oh indeed. It'll just be some "you can't believe what the MSM tell you" shit

The one always comes out with some patronising bollocks along the lines of "i read all the different types of media available, not just the MSM, so have a much more informed opinion" despite the fact that every single link he posts is either from RT, Zero Hedge, Breitbart or some other right wing conspiracy site.

Pretty sure a lot of people will change their minds when they discover they can't go on even a short-haul foreign holiday without having been vaccinated.

Hopefully the vaccine will make some people infertile!

yeah that's kinda 2 birds with 1 stone

ummm, let's maybe avoid jokes about involuntary sterilization by the authorities being a good thing. at least in the US this has actual eugenic/white supremacist precedents.

talking about my self btw

a lot of people will change their minds when they discover they can't go on even a short-haul foreign holiday

A hundred million Americans: Huh? Why would I want to go to a DIFFERENT country when I'm already in the best one?

Dr C otm

ultimately I found a great way to deal with friends who have swallowed brain worms
making them "not friends"

tired of banging my head on moving goalposts

A hundred million Americans: Huh? Why would I want to go to a DIFFERENT country when I'm already in the best one?

why would i go to a different country when the beaches in the florida panhandle are perfect already?

ultimately I found a great way to deal with friends who have swallowed brain worms
making them "not friends"

thought it was posting about your arguments with them on ilx

I'm a Tar Heel born
I'm a Tar Heel bred
And when I die I'll be a Tar Heel dead

The Daily Tar Heel isn’t holding back this morning. pic.twitter.com/BZmuhAvMQD

— Susan Worley (@TarheelSoup) August 17, 2020

Just made a quick jaunt back to the mid-2010s in the ol' time machine to see if folks from our very recent past could make heads or tails of this headline:

Trump 'enthusiastic' over unproven coronavirus therapeutic, MyPillow creator says

I'm a Tar Heel born
I'm a Tar Heel bred
And when I die I'll be a Tar Heel dead

The Daily Tar Heel isn’t holding back this morning. pic.twitter.com/BZmuhAvMQD
— Susan Worley (@TarheelSoup) August 17, 2020
― mookieproof, Monday, August 17, 2020 2:06 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

just announced: shutting down all in-person classes

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7

This, on the immune response and what it means for the possibility of a vaccine, is reassuring.

Scotty has said the vaccine will be mandatory in Australia.

Scotty doesn't know

Vaccine maker says scotty doesn't have a contract for any vaccine.

Following on from Matt's link.

A first case of #COVID19 reinfection from HKU, with distinct virus genome sequences in 1st and 2nd infection (142 days apart). Kudos to the scientists for this study.

This is no cause for alarm - this is a textbook example of how immunity should work.

(1/n) https://t.co/oekESn0Uhq

— Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity) August 24, 2020

Can anyone speak to the validity of the tweet that xyz just posted? Sounds right and is reassuring but i dunno the Prof in question.

She's quoted here too: https://time.com/5882907/covid-19-reinfection/

The NYT, on the other hand, is reporting this as if it's crushing news

Why would it be crushing news, the ENTIRE GOAL is to arrive with minimal death and long-term illness toll at the point where the virus is endemic instead of pandemic and everybody's walking around with partial immunity bolstered every year by vaccination but people still get mild cases every year. There's no other endpoint! We are not going to make the virus extinct! The Spanish flu is still around, you've probably gotten it!

Cos it's the NYT

This shit is maddening. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine isn't some Trump-created snake oil!

They've been saying this whole time that they were hoping to start distributing vaccines in September/October, if everything went well.