pre-covid FDA report on drugs and vaccines that have failed phase 3 trials. seems like it's rare but it happens.
https://www.fda.gov/media/102332/download
โ ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, August 12, 2020 2:24 AM (fourteen hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
I only read the intro and discussion sections of this but if Iโm understanding your conclusion correctly (that if a drug makes it to phase 3 trials, failure is unlikely) I donโt think thatโs really the case. I will look for some more data that aim to be comprehensive later. (I bet vinay prasad has studied this question, if you want to beat me to it.)
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 12 August 2020 20:40 (three years ago) link
Marion County (FL) Sheriff Billy Woods on Tuesday told his deputies that they are prohibited from wearing masks while on duty just as Florida set a new daily record for COVID-19 fatalities.According to the Ocala Star-Banner, Woods wrote in an email to the sheriffโs department on Tuesday that โmy order will stand as is when you are on-duty/working as my employee and representing my Office โ masks will not be worn.โWoodsโ order also applies to visitors to the sheriffโs office, but makes exceptions for officers in locations where there are people who are at high-risk or suspected of having contracted COVID-19, such as hospitals.
According to the Ocala Star-Banner, Woods wrote in an email to the sheriffโs department on Tuesday that โmy order will stand as is when you are on-duty/working as my employee and representing my Office โ masks will not be worn.โ
Woodsโ order also applies to visitors to the sheriffโs office, but makes exceptions for officers in locations where there are people who are at high-risk or suspected of having contracted COVID-19, such as hospitals.
so wait. if for some reason i walk into the sheriff's office in Marion County, FL, i will be ordered to NOT wear a mask? i'm sure there are some legal arguments happening right now about whether or not you can force someone to wear a mask. but, can you force someone to not wear something that adds to their protection and offends or affects no one else?
― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 12 August 2020 20:42 (three years ago) link
hey you there - no sunscreen allowed on this beach, pardner
It's a good question, actually. I'm assuming they can force you to temporarily lower it, to verify ID. Or, like, getting your driver's license or passport picture taken, sure. But forbid you from putting it back up after? Yeah, I don't see how that's legal.
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 12 August 2020 20:45 (three years ago) link
I only read the intro and discussion sections of this but if Iโm understanding your conclusion correctly (that if a drug makes it to phase 3 trials, failure is unlikely) I donโt think thatโs really the case. I will look for some more data that aim to be comprehensive later. (I bet vinay prasad has studied this question, if you want to beat me to it.)โ k3vin k., Wednesday, August 12, 2020 4:40 PM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
โ k3vin k., Wednesday, August 12, 2020 4:40 PM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
i think the report's implied conclusion is that "we can't get rid of phase 3 (apparently a think people were talking about a couple years back) because > 0 failures have occurred in phase 3". which... fair enough?
i can't tell if it's supposed to be a complete list of all the phase 3 failures in some period, or it's just some examples. i think it's examples though. so "rare" may not strictly be the right word. but reading between the lines, i get the impression that phase 3 failure is not *common* either. if you have numbers i'd be interested.
which is ... good and bad news i guess?
the good news is that the probability of *all* advanced trials failing phase 3 is seems like it's very low. just as an example, suppose these ten or so vaccinations can be considered truly independent (they're not, but there's at least a few very different approaches). and suppose 50% of phase 3 trials fail (which seems high, but whatever). the probability that they *all* fail is the same as the probability of tossing ten heads in a row, which happens about 1/1000th of the time. at least one of these will probably pass phase 3!
the bad news is that, since the phase 3 failure rate is not *zero* we can't skip phase 3. Like you might skip it if the drug was going to be given to a small number of people who were going to die. but we're talking about mass vaccination of hundreds of millions of currently healthy people will get the vaccination.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 12 August 2020 21:10 (three years ago) link
Let's just all take all ten and see what happens.
― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Wednesday, 12 August 2020 21:25 (three years ago) link
yeah let's us the time more usefully by posting on the joe biden thread
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 12 August 2020 21:29 (three years ago) link
*use
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Wednesday, 12 August 2020 21:30 (three years ago) link
I hope you all enjoy your vaccines because Australia is doing fuck all to secure any supplies of potential vaccines.
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Wednesday, 12 August 2020 21:41 (three years ago) link
apologies if this is paywalled, but what happened in LA is covered well here, and is a applies to a lot of the US
https://www.latimes.com/projects/how-rushed-la-reopening-sparked-covid-19-cases/#nt=1col-7030col1-main
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Thursday, 13 August 2020 17:55 (three years ago) link
https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/08/toronto-anti-maskers-say-cherry-beach-chainsaw-guys-destroyed-their-dj-booth/
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Thursday, 13 August 2020 22:42 (three years ago) link
This kind of thing happened in the former Soviet states in the 1990s, after theyโd lost the Cold War and had their economy turned into an abattoir by the Chicago school. Our government is doing it voluntarily for shits and giggles. https://t.co/4CCMc00iEC— derek davison (@dwdavison) August 15, 2020
― brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 15 August 2020 18:19 (three years ago) link
phase 3 trials often show up problems that can kill a drug's approval
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Saturday, 15 August 2020 19:39 (three years ago) link
Discussed a few posts back. How often?
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Saturday, 15 August 2020 19:50 (three years ago) link
here's one thing I'm still confused on - how long after exposure to or having close contact with someone that has COVID do you then become contagious?
every site says something like 48-72 hours before symptoms start, but what about asymptomatic people? If someone infected sneezes on them, are they, like, immediately a vector, or it takes maybe 2-3 days?
I realize there's a lot we don't know but I'm not sure if we have more info on this that I can't find.
― popeye's arse (Neanderthal), Sunday, 16 August 2020 17:36 (three years ago) link
i mean, the virus has to be able to replicate significantly, i can't imagine anyone could spread it in less than 24 hours, 2-3 days seems reasonable? maybe countries with excellent contact tracing could try to figure it out, but it's not the easiest thing to study.
― circles, Sunday, 16 August 2020 18:12 (three years ago) link
I'd assume it's the same for asymptomatic, but they may be a little less contagious
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Sunday, 16 August 2020 20:00 (three years ago) link
Is there a Covid Conspiracy thread anywhere?
As I have some former close friends on my social media feeds who appear to have swallowed right-wing brain worms in the last few years and are now posting David Icke videos and claiming things like the vaccine is going to be mandatory for everyone and is going to make large numbers of people infertile and other crazy shit, so am looking for some sourced rebuttals
― chonky floof (groovypanda), Monday, 17 August 2020 10:01 (three years ago) link
I wish that sourced rebuttals worked with the cases I know about, who trust nothing (except obviously the mad sites they get this stuff from)
― stet, Monday, 17 August 2020 10:16 (three years ago) link
Oh indeed. It'll just be some "you can't believe what the MSM tell you" shit
The one always comes out with some patronising bollocks along the lines of "i read all the different types of media available, not just the MSM, so have a much more informed opinion" despite the fact that every single link he posts is either from RT, Zero Hedge, Breitbart or some other right wing conspiracy site.
― chonky floof (groovypanda), Monday, 17 August 2020 10:38 (three years ago) link
Pretty sure a lot of people will change their minds when they discover they can't go on even a short-haul foreign holiday without having been vaccinated.
― Matt DC, Monday, 17 August 2020 10:39 (three years ago) link
Hopefully the vaccine will make some people infertile!
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, 17 August 2020 13:50 (three years ago) link
yeah that's kinda 2 birds with 1 stone
― frogbs, Monday, 17 August 2020 14:03 (three years ago) link
ummm, let's maybe avoid jokes about involuntary sterilization by the authorities being a good thing. at least in the US this has actual eugenic/white supremacist precedents.
― Doctor Casino, Monday, 17 August 2020 14:04 (three years ago) link
talking about my self btw
― frogbs, Monday, 17 August 2020 14:09 (three years ago) link
a lot of people will change their minds when they discover they can't go on even a short-haul foreign holiday
A hundred million Americans: Huh? Why would I want to go to a DIFFERENT country when I'm already in the best one?
― all we are is durst in the wind (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 17 August 2020 14:18 (three years ago) link
Dr C otm
ultimately I found a great way to deal with friends who have swallowed brain wormsmaking them "not friends"
tired of banging my head on moving goalposts
― muntjac wagner (Neanderthal), Monday, 17 August 2020 14:54 (three years ago) link
why would i go to a different country when the beaches in the florida panhandle are perfect already?
― The GOAT Harold Land (Karl Malone), Monday, 17 August 2020 15:05 (three years ago) link
thought it was posting about your arguments with them on ilx
― k3vin k., Monday, 17 August 2020 17:52 (three years ago) link
I'm a Tar Heel bornI'm a Tar Heel bredAnd when I die I'll be a Tar Heel dead
The Daily Tar Heel isnโt holding back this morning. pic.twitter.com/BZmuhAvMQD— Susan Worley (@TarheelSoup) August 17, 2020
― mookieproof, Monday, 17 August 2020 18:06 (three years ago) link
Just made a quick jaunt back to the mid-2010s in the ol' time machine to see if folks from our very recent past could make heads or tails of this headline:
Trump 'enthusiastic' over unproven coronavirus therapeutic, MyPillow creator says
― Ask yoreself: are you're standards too high? (Old Lunch), Monday, 17 August 2020 18:19 (three years ago) link
The Daily Tar Heel isnโt holding back this morning. pic.twitter.com/BZmuhAvMQDโ Susan Worley (@TarheelSoup) August 17, 2020โ mookieproof, Monday, August 17, 2020 2:06 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
just announced: shutting down all in-person classes
― Evans on Hammond (evol j), Monday, 17 August 2020 20:14 (three years ago) link
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7
This, on the immune response and what it means for the possibility of a vaccine, is reassuring.
― Matt DC, Tuesday, 18 August 2020 10:24 (three years ago) link
Scotty has said the vaccine will be mandatory in Australia.
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 23:48 (three years ago) link
Scotty doesn't know
― muntjac wagner (Neanderthal), Tuesday, 18 August 2020 23:55 (three years ago) link
Vaccine maker says scotty doesn't have a contract for any vaccine.
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Wednesday, 19 August 2020 05:17 (three years ago) link
Following on from Matt's link.
A first case of #COVID19 reinfection from HKU, with distinct virus genome sequences in 1st and 2nd infection (142 days apart). Kudos to the scientists for this study.This is no cause for alarm - this is a textbook example of how immunity should work. (1/n) https://t.co/oekESn0Uhq— Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity) August 24, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 24 August 2020 16:16 (three years ago) link
Can anyone speak to the validity of the tweet that xyz just posted? Sounds right and is reassuring but i dunno the Prof in question.
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, 24 August 2020 16:19 (three years ago) link
She's quoted here too: https://time.com/5882907/covid-19-reinfection/
The NYT, on the other hand, is reporting this as if it's crushing news
― muntjac wagner (Neanderthal), Monday, 24 August 2020 17:17 (three years ago) link
Why would it be crushing news, the ENTIRE GOAL is to arrive with minimal death and long-term illness toll at the point where the virus is endemic instead of pandemic and everybody's walking around with partial immunity bolstered every year by vaccination but people still get mild cases every year. There's no other endpoint! We are not going to make the virus extinct! The Spanish flu is still around, you've probably gotten it!
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 24 August 2020 17:20 (three years ago) link
Cos it's the NYT
― muntjac wagner (Neanderthal), Monday, 24 August 2020 17:24 (three years ago) link
This shit is maddening. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine isn't some Trump-created snake oil!
― DJI, Monday, 24 August 2020 17:51 (three years ago) link
They've been saying this whole time that they were hoping to start distributing vaccines in September/October, if everything went well.
― DJI, Monday, 24 August 2020 17:52 (three years ago) link
just made a dental appointment for NYC; i suppose i gotta do this shit sooner or later and waiting until there's a tested vaccine means i will have no molars.
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, 24 August 2020 17:56 (three years ago) link
xp
nope. they are *still recruiting* for phase III trials *in the UK* (and brazil iirc) until september.
and the US generally requires phase III trials to take place *in the US* to approve drugs for use in the US.
that vaccine is not snake oil, but "They've been saying this whole time that they were hoping to start distributing vaccines in September/October" is not true.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Monday, 24 August 2020 18:01 (three years ago) link
(unless "they" is literally donald trump)
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Monday, 24 August 2020 18:03 (three years ago) link
Whoops - you're right. They were targeting the end of the year.
― DJI, Monday, 24 August 2020 18:09 (three years ago) link
I wonder if theyโd even accept the fast-tracking? The risk seems pretty high to get a two month jump.
― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Monday, 24 August 2020 18:13 (three years ago) link
Right. The US is very litigious! I wouldnโt want preapproval from a corrupt administration that will hopefully be gone in January. And itโs not like theyโll have spare doses gathering dust.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Monday, 24 August 2020 18:19 (three years ago) link
the emergency use authorization for convalescent plasma yesterday was alarming in this regard -- it won't be much of a hassle for us as it's a therapy given in the hospital setting where demands for unproven treatments generally are fewer and easier to deal with -- but if they use the same logic to expedite marketing of a vaccine it could be a huge deal
― k3vin k., Monday, 24 August 2020 18:46 (three years ago) link