outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

At my daughter's secondary school each class has one room that they stay in all day and only the teachers change room for each lesson. Plus side is it avoids what you've just described, but the downside is it restricts some of the lessons (eg she's in a science lab all the time, which means the other four years can't do any science practicals).

AstraZeneca drops as much as 10% after-hours; company puts Covid-19 vaccine trial on hold - report https://t.co/BkVUNv6KSd pic.twitter.com/cyik89Gcwn

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) September 8, 2020

Was that the most promising one?

Moderna's the one Fauci is involved in

Guardian has a tracker that covers most of the vaccines that have entered Phase I test.

Personally, I'm fine isolating and wearing a mask. I'll wait for the vaccine of the first half-dozen with the best preventative efficacy, and that won't be clear till next Spring or later.

The oxford Astra Zeneca one is the one you hear mentioned most outside the US, and I think it’s the one in the most advanced stage of stage iii testing (started first, most countries) and it’s the one with the most “preorders”. This is the second time they’ve paused for a possible adverse event. First time was apparently a false alarm.

I do think we kind of place too much faith in the idea a vaccine is imminent. I think we need to strongly consider avoidance measures not just as a means to keep things under control, but ultimately as a way to reduce it to zero.

I don't think I've got much faith in an imminent vaccine but I've got hope, because the alternative gets increasingly bleak.

Like... I miss going to bars and seeing friends and dating and eating the best ramen in 300 mile radius in a standing room only restaurant.

(and re: friends, between people with compromised immune systems and people including me in virus-risky employment situations even distanced meetups aren't comfortable)

halloween canceled in LA

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-09-09-20-intl/h_ef0979aeef8a7ff7a5165a6af57f6ec7

I think we need to strongly consider avoidance measures not just as a means to keep things under control, but ultimately as a way to reduce it to zero.

― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, September 8, 2020 11:25 PM bookmarkflaglink

that ship has long sailed.

the issue isn't a vaccine getting approved, methinks. one will be approved before Phase 3 testing is done, which, for example, for Moderna, won't be until 2022.

it'll take a while to get to everybody and take it in sufficient numbers to be effective in a population. but even then it isn't going to suddenly make the virus vanish, either. even if enough take it, most experts I've read have guessed it'll just reduce its numbers, and the thing will probably still be endemic. it'll just be a seasonal thing like the flu.

i don't think there's a chance in hell of eradicating it, this country isn't going to take care of its civilians for the length of a multi-month full-fledged lockdown (even with a Dem White House and Dem Congress, unless we get rid of the filibuster). life is probably going to be this awkward tug-of-war for a while. it's hell, but I can't really deal with much more isolation so I take what I can, find joy in those moments I can find.

and one thing I'm getting really sick of is the constant internet shaming and the smug tone. not for people who refuse to wear masks in public, fuck them and their entire families IMO. but my best friend got called out publicly by some piece of shit that didn't even really know her for going out with a friend, sitting masked outside at a bar that wasn't crowded. called her 'performative' and suggested she was hurtful.

a lot of my friends post variations of "JUST STAY THE FUCK HOME". the funny thing about it is every one of them that posts this either lives with a significant other, or their best friend, or with 3 or 4 roommates they're close with. to where they can stay home and have some level of socialization. I realize that is still a diminished experience as it's the same people all of the time and you can still get stir crazy being around people, but that's preferable to living either alone or with a roommate you barely know, some random guy your landlord found. and not everybody can work from home (I can, but my brother, without the theme parks being open, would be out of a job, the majority of his pay).

that's one reason I took a week break from FB last week, as I got sick of watching some of my normally compassionate friends posting constant shame shit over things not as severe as 'not masking', but having the audacity to leave the house and meet another human being, regardless of what precautions were taken. some were even criticizing friends for having "social circles that were too big". yes, there are reckless things we still shouldn't do, but some people (like my friend L!n) are coming apart and are trying to safely do things with other people to keep their sanity.

anywho....i'm ok at the moment, but we have to temper our expectations for this vaccine, as hopeful as I am.

i am game for wearing masks for the forseeable future though. I've gotten used to it

should also be noted AstroZeneca pausing its trial isn't exactly an unusual thing - this is SOP whenever there's an unexplained illness. may be completely unrelated, but they have to pause and make sure.

I'm down with mask wearing in many situations being normalized forever, even if only to cut down marginally on colds and flu.

I masked the one time I had flu as an adult. the CVS actually had free ones for us if we "had flu-like symptoms" at the Minute Clinic

but surprised at how not widespread it is. my 3 asshole roommates last year practically were trying to infect me.

Yeah the AstraZeneca thing has already happened once in this trial process and the hospitalisation may have had nothing to do with the vaccine itself, it's a routine thing. (They may not even have had the vaccine, just the placebo/control, I guess?)

Neanderthal, I think my rage only comes out when I see people taking lavish vacations, or cavorting around in large groups unmasked.

Like I'm taking a camping trip with three friends in early October, so maybe I sound hypocritical, but some *cough* circuit queens and punk rock types I know are posting pictures of crowded house parties on Fire Island and NoLA. No one is wearing masks. To me, that kind of behavior is a far cry from sitting around a fire eating beans and going hiking with two of my best friends (plus two spouses) for a few days.

yeah I anticipate wearing masks indefinitely, don’t see life going back to “normal” soon. but I do tons of low-risk stuff like going to the beach and eating outside that I think is a fine medium

certainly table. any of that behavior goes beyond "just trying to connect with someone safely" and veers into "trying to pretend we're not in a global pandemic", so I can understand that.

I took the rapid response test yesterday. swab was certainly unpleasant but pretty minimally so, feeling passed in about five minutes. Test came back negative in about a half hour which left a kind of lightness in my activity for the rest of the day that both surprised me and that felt somewhat unrecognizable. Then I went and got my teeth cleaned which was its own kind of weirdness having someone actually IN MY MOUTH while the two people doing the work were PPP'd up like I was case zero.

I've been wondering if some parts of life will go back to much like "before" but just with masks indefinitely. Looking around, that's how it seems (ymmv). Gyms and movie theatres and indoor dining are probably fucked but going into stores & restaurants, the post office, etc, briefly and masked, is starting to feel kinda chill?

I woke up to an email this morning from my clay studio basically saying "don't panic but one of the students has tested positive. it's asymptomatic and we're doing our best to continue keeping things clean; you don't need to worry if you've been properly socially distancing" and now i don't know if it's wise to go back.

I have a hunch many of the same folks egregiously/obliviously not following safety guidelines are the same folks that will not vote this November because they "don't really follow politics, bro" or some shit.

The daughter of a good friend of ours had a member of her high school swim team test positive; don't know if that means the daughter is quarantining (she has an immune-compromised brother). And some local high school party a few days back has already resulted in close to 20 positive cases, which begs the question: did an asymptomatic person go and spread, or did someone know they were positive and go anyway? In the case of the former, if the teen was asymptomatic, why did they feel the need to get tested? But I can totally see the latter happening. That bar that opened some months back in Michigan, that was exactly the scenario: young dude went, got sick, still invited friends over for a fire pit and/or to infect them all and their families, too, which is just what he did.

Reminds me of a huge rain storm we had almost 20 years ago. All the underpasses were flooded, and on the news you could barely see the tops of a few cars that got overwhelmed by the water. The reporter turned to a man and asked him if one of those cars was his. "Yeah," he said. Didn't you see all the other stuck cars? she asked. What made you think *you* could make it? The guy just shrugs. "I dunno."

i don't know if it's wise to go back.

the major risk wouldn't be from rebreathing air that the positive student had shed virus into. the micro-droplets eventually settle. if the surfaces where it settled are well-cleaned, you are aware of what you touch, wash hands often and don't rub your face, then that's low risk, too.

the main risk would be that you or other students are already infected and you or they will begin to shed virus into the air while you are gathered for class. masks and distancing will reduce that risk, but that's what I'd think hardest about before going back.

The students are back here in St Andrews, and it seems like there are a lot of rumours flying around. A couple of friends who work in the halls have said there have been three positives, the cops busted up parties etc. I don't know. All I know is I'm staying put.

thx aimless, that's all pretty sensible.

1,500 cases traced back to meat processing plants in the last month and yet https://t.co/kYioFc00O6

— Elvis Buñuelo (@Mr_Considerate) September 9, 2020

Just so fucking hollow.

The fires across the West Coast are just the latest examples of the very real ways our changing climate is changing our communities. Protecting our planet is on the ballot. Vote like your life depends on it—because it does. pic.twitter.com/gKGegXWxQu

— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) September 10, 2020

Here's video of one community in the midst of rapid change:

DEVELOPING: The Beachie Creek Fire burning east of Salem, Oregon has grown to an estimated 80,000+ acres. The town of Mill City is believed to have almost entirely burned to the ground. pic.twitter.com/BvbfIC3rIQ

— UA News (@UrgentAlertNews) September 8, 2020

Sorry that Obama tweet should be in the climate change thread. Guess it's all getting tied up with Covid in my head.

1/
Look at the shape of these curves.

New York and Madrid had similar epidemics until they spectacularly diverged.

In March, both cities were caught by surprise and shut down because of #COVID19.

In September, the situation is under control in NY and alarming in Madrid.

Why? pic.twitter.com/VF0BCl0xyt

— Miguel Hernán (@_MiguelHernan) September 11, 2020

not an expert on any of this, but this has the ring of truth

good thread, thanks

Karl you should follow https://mobile.twitter.com/kissane, she’s like the taniel of covid data. She’s how I saw that thread.

taniel of covid data.

lol, i love it. followed!
i don't know why i wasn't following Kissane before! I've seen her before in other covidtracking related twitter threads, but i didn't know she was like, taniel level

I mean you could also have seen that tweet in particular in the British politics thread but there’s also some mourinho/spurs content in there too.

maybe i underestimate how fucked up things are in madrid, but i find it difficult to give new york much credit. i mean last month i waited five days for a test result in nyc

Summary and link to paper here by the Wellcome Trust
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/looking-ahead-prepare-tomorrow-covid-19-futures-beth-thompson-mbe

looking at possible scenarios:
Future 1 - “Vaccines work, antivirals fail”
Future 2 - “Antivirals work, vaccines fail”
Future 3 - “Medical interventions are effective and evolution works for us”
Future 4 - “Medical interventions fail and evolution works against us”
"This thought experiment isn’t a prediction but a tool to imagine and explore what could happen."

#BREAKING Israel announces 3-week nationwide coronavirus lockdown pic.twitter.com/HoCkuobWKP

— AFP news agency (@AFP) September 13, 2020

2020 summed up in a url
https://gothamist.com/news/verizon-karen-video-racist-anti-mask-no-data-rage-covid

lol

thanks, the AQI is like 600 here and there is still a pandemic and I needed a chuckle

that's an utterly appalling video in that link btw, approach with caution

uk covid cases heatmap

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh25tnRXsAAwUdU.png

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh25tnRXsAAwUdU.png (because that will fail to embed)

someone is trying to stop coronavirus. the proud patriots of michigan won't let that happen.

Group says it has topped 400K signatures, in 2 months, to repeal Whitmer's unilateral emergency powers to curb virus; GOP-backed maneuver lets Legislature rescind 1945 law & sidestep veto; Unlock Michigan wants 500K signatures, may submit in Sept #mileg https://t.co/TPIG4VUJtb

— David Eggert (@DavidEggert00) September 14, 2020

This has to be an SNL skit. It just has to be. pic.twitter.com/HURtVSr9DL

— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) September 14, 2020

oh my god, the 6-year-old saying "the flu kills more than coronavirus"

as i shut that off, someone was making an important point about george floyd not being able to breathe, as compared to masks for covid19.

great job, local news