Does anyone here want to talk about Australian politics?

Grim.

To give you some idea of how utterly vicious the JobSeeker cut is: rent eats up a full 65% of my reduced payment leaving me with just $130 per week for bills and food. This is what today looks like for millions of people

— Joshua Badge (@joshuabadge) September 25, 2020

Our labor ‘opposition’ makes starmer look like corbyn, but then we have Fitzgibbon to make Albo look less than a complete collaborator.

Feel I need a safe space to experience dread

My wholly unverifiable prediction is that people sharing amusingly-captioned photos of Morrison crash-tackling an 8 yr-old are somehow going to swing the election for the Coalition by playing into some kind of Buffoon Daddy image that the inhabitants of this dipshit colony secretly crave

My other prediction is that the UAP are going to be a much more potent electoral force than anyone is anticipating

Would be glad to be proven wrong on these, maybe 13 years of this shit has trained me to reject any optimistic scenario (I mean to be fair the best possible outcome is an ultra-milquetoast Labor govt, pretty hard to get super excited about this)

Agreed on all, except UAP are a joke even to their constituency. But the "shy tory" vote and the invisible hand of the Boomers will keep the LNP in power for another decade I think.

The ALP did well to avoid their fatal hubris when ahead in the polls, but they've become so centrist there is literally no positive reason to vote for them other than "less worse than the Coalition". There's nothing to believe in any more in Australian politics, just a choice between parties offering the same things while one group openly enrich their power base while the others clutch their pearls.

UAP are 100% clown car shit for sure, but I actually think their dopey messaging is gonna translate to a reasonable anti-major party protest vote. Precisely on account of that Lab/LNP death spiral you mention.

I actually thought Labor went into the last election with a non-terrible policy offering, and they were eviscerated by boomer self-interest, News Ltd, right-centrist media bias generally and Shorten's uncanny lack of human qualities. So I guess I understand their timidity this time. But they are gonna get smashed again.

This is beginning to feel pretty grim. It does feel like the Coalition is staging a comeback and it might come down to whether some of the teal independents can win and we end up with a hung parliament.

I find it helpful to expect the worst

It’s what both major parties’ policies are offering, so

Bit in the Guardian this morning saying 25% (!!!) of early voters exit polled in Wentworth (fuckin WENTWORTH!!) copping to voting UAP. That may be unscientific data but my dread is empirically real.

sharma reported “shook”

Yeah, the UAP is going to get a lot more votes than the polls say. But I have a hard time thinking they'll get 25% in Wentworth! I live on the edge of that electorate, and it's basically evenly split between rich people who will reliably vote Liberal no matter what, and young professionals who will vote all over the spectrum, but are hardly naturals for a populist conspiracy theorist party. But who knows anymore.

Appalling automated text message I just received from Clive Palmer’s party. Brazen Trumpian lies like this one should not be part of our political discourse. Shameful attempt to scare voters pic.twitter.com/6kodfSx1cF

— Lily D'Ambrosio MP (@LilyDAmbrosioMP) May 20, 2022

Yeah this sucks but if the major parties were committed to truth in political communication they would make it illegal to lie like this. But they’re not, so they don’t. https://t.co/ULbIJdyzc2

— Tim (non-spooky, non-Halloween version) (@burgotastic) May 20, 2022

idk i am feeling more optimistic than most of you, signs of a labor victory look much better than 2019's signs were and even if the same sort of polling error is repeated that just gets into likely labor minority territory (& at the very least some of the problems with the polls last time have been fixed). still possible that things go very wrong but it doesn't seem overly likely, things aren't too close on paper at least. labor getting 52-53 TPP and somewhere around 80 seats seems pretty realistic, at least i hope

i am not optimistic about labor being very good at all but there is at least the possibility of them being pushed to the left a little by the greens (who they will necessarily need to rely on in the senate to do anything that isn't terrible) & they're absolutely an improvement over the coalition at least. don't think they're quite as useless as say, uk labour or the us democrats yet

also feel reasonably optimistic about the prospect of the greens finally winning another house seat or two, things seem quite good for their chances in a few seats, especially in some of the brisbane seats, so hopefully they'll be able to scrape a victory together somewhere at least

thanks UFO, this country has trained me to live without hope, but I hope you’re right

Final two polls both have it 53-47. I am daring to hope...

I’m not. But good luck Straya.

today has been very very long and slow

Ok bracing for a golden shower of UAP primary votes

Have been enjoying the endless minutes of Lib, Nat and ALP numpties on the ABC all explaining how a vote for anyone not affiliated with a party formed before the end of WW2 is a vote for chaos and the end of civilisation.

No landslide for Labor, that's for sure

Brisbane *is* rather interesting. ufo otm yesterday!

Labor minority govt with Greens support, if that's how it pans out, is probably the best result

sickos_yes.jpg

Albo in, Scummo out, happy for Aussies.


Albanese describes himself as "half-Italian and half-Irish" and a "non-practicising Catholic". He is also a music fan who reportedly once went to a Pogues gig in a Pixies shirt and intervened as Transport Minister to save a Dolly Parton tour from bureaucratic red tape. In 2013, he co-hosted a pre-election special of music program Rage and his song selection included the Pixies and Pogues alongside the Smiths, the Triffids, PJ Harvey, Hunters & Collectors and Joy Division.

Time for DJ Albo! #AusVotes22 pic.twitter.com/uKHOFnoCYo

— Sam Menhennet (@sammenhennet) May 21, 2022

sentiment taken as intended but afraid I had to FP you

Cautious phew

Feeling pretty good! Greens have done well, Labor won't be able to ignore them. Frydenberg losing is pretty sweet.

Dutton’s “I am your cuddly Liberal Daddy” repositioning speech was super gross

Very glad that my worst imaginings re auspol shitshow failed to materialise - strong Green vote unexpected surprise - realise I know not much about the teal independents other than at least one of them is an ex-Lib - not sure what the implications are if a bunch of them get elected?

this is… quite a good result all round?

This guy scraping by to keep his seat would be a win for nominitive determinism.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Goodenough

I know not much about the teal independents other than at least one of them is an ex-Lib - not sure what the implications are if a bunch of them get elected?

they're a mixed bag, some are very much tree tories who would happily fit into the moderate wing of the liberals if they didn't believe that was a dead end, some are fairly progressive on a lot of things and even to the left of labor on many issues but usually more conservative on economic issues

their overall influence will likely be fairly limited as labor will necessarily require the greens' support to pass anything in the senate & likely won't need anything more than the greens' support in the house at most (they could still end up with a majority but minority seems more likely), so the teals shouldn't have any ability to block anything & if labor passes something that they support but the greens don't, it'll have trouble getting through the senate

this is pretty fantastic result, the worst result for the liberals in at least 40 years which will put them in existential crisis territory, and unexpectedly great for the greens (the greens have gained at least 2 seats and it could be up to 5, though some of those are rather unlikely) while also teaching labor a lesson or too (no, people weren't inspired by your small target and parachuting terrible candidates like keneally who have no community backing into "safe" seats can horribly backfire)

the one risk is labor gets very bitter about the greens 'costing' them a majority (if that's how it works out) and refuses to negotiate on issues much at all & parliament becomes horribly dysfunctional. really just have to hope that they'll be pragmatic enough.

Yep, agree this is a pretty great result. I think Albo's instincts will veer towards the pragmatic re the Greens. But he'll worry about the optics (cue Coalition talking points about Bandt the puppet master) and feel the need to beat his chest and invent confrontations.

https://i.imgur.com/QpWJlzK.jpg

Amazing number of pissy Lib/Nat takes saying that the party had drifted too far to the left (!!) - like, I kinda get that this is jostling for control of the post-loss narrative but it’s also utterly demented.

yeah the party has absolutely lost touch with public opinion and has only retained the rusted-on boomer vote (hi mum and dad). Labor should be deeply ashamed that they “won” on a “platform” which consisted of “the same but not Morrison” which, while pleasing in the short term to be rid of the Scunt, offers little in the way of vision or leadership. At least the numbers of Greens and indies is a neon sign saying “make some actual progress on climate or suffer the consequences.” Plibersek’s hubris was pretty gross but Albo I think is properly humble about taking the job with such a tiny primary vote.

Its that Pato you are sharing a succulent democracy sausage with sic?

my fckn polling place had no (zero) sausages or cake stalls, in inner suburban Hobart. Ruined my day, I had even timed my vote for lunch.

Really wish this was true:

the Mail’s review of the Australian Greens’ agenda is one of the most intense “threaten us with a good time” pieces I’ve ever seen pic.twitter.com/uJEVq9hqSm

— James Mackenzie (@mrjamesmack) May 22, 2022

that is all real greens policy, they're great, but they're not in government so most of that isn't really on the table, unfortunately. in practice i'd probably put them to the left of most european greens parties

labor will necessarily need to rely on them in the senate to pass anything so there is going to be a lot of room for the greens to negotiate concessions & push labor to the left though. we'll have to see how it plays out but it's still the most progressive parliament we've had here in my lifetime by a long way

That's great to hear. Hope the Greens don't fold and are able to get a few things through.

'Bandit' is an anagram of 'I, Bandt'.

off to a great start

Chris Bowen has slapped down Greens demands for a more aggressive decarbonisation pathway amid fears over projects such as Woodside’s $16.5 billion Scarborough gas project. https://t.co/3pnoopcnWg

— Financial Review (@FinancialReview) May 23, 2022

(@trayce - yep, couple of hot Polish with cream cheese & sauerkraut, eaten in the batting cage at the corner of the CHAZ/CHOP: true fucken blue m8)

This parliament is going to be a real argy bargy between Labor and the Greens, but I expect the Greens will win at least some of the battles.

guillotine time

i <3 toto albanese, there i said it

you can line up the account holder though, that’s another matter

Still the best 15+ minutes of TV a week, if you haven't seen it yet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANeqEi0xcxw

labor are not going to immediately concede to the greens on anything so i'm not surprised by the rhetoric (though there has been some slightly softer language elsewhere)

the reality is that labor is forced to negotiate with the greens if they want to legislate and this is the reality going forward for them in government that they need to get used to (it was the case in 2010 too but that was a more complex situation). they've shown they can be pragmatic in the past so we just have to wait to see how parliament will play out. labor being underwhelming in government is also a very good way for them to lose further seats to the greens