outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Who would think that the anti-governance party would elect incompetent governors

Not to mention Gimenez is running for a House seat in a tightly contested district (i.e. mine).

Not to mention there's a Heat game tonight.

well, let's bust out the good ol envelope and turn it around to the back, where the work must be done

these numbers are kinda useless though if you don't know how many unreported cases there are, and the estimates on that vary wildly. has there ever been a randomized antibody test done anywhere?

that's a 2.80% mortality rate

kinda useless though if you don't know how many unreported cases there are

yes, karl's number, if accurate, would make covid19 about 28x more deadly than influenza. but even if you assume known cases only represent a third of actual cases the mortality rate would still be about 10x that of influenza. so, it is a particularly deadly disease by anyone's standard.

my county never enforced fines against masks so that part doesn't hurt here locally, but statewide, it's idiotic af.

I wasn't eating at restaurants anyway, other than once or twice masked with my best friend at a half capacity place. won't be going to any now.

at least relieved that I think I got the vaccine in my Covid trial so that I have some protection but not going to live as such.

in other words...the same ole "sitting in my room listening to death metal records and feeling very alone!"

i'm just fucking tired rn

Jason Leitch, Scotland's national clinical director, said the other day that they were estimating 4% hospitalisation and 1% deaths so far but that both numbers were decreasing across the UK as the infected population was now generally younger.

2.8% is much too high but so what? It's a really bad disease. There is no one answer to "what proportion of people who get COVID die" -- huge variation in age is the most obvious thing but e.g. there is variation time (fewer people die now because we've learned more about treating it, which was one big motivation for slowing down case growth in March/April), and there seems to be big variation between regions too for reasons I think people don't really understand.

Do we have any stats yet on what percentage of people who caught it early on still have significant fatigue/breathing/nervous/heart complications 6 months later?

At this rate I fully expect the hospitals to be overwhelmed by West Nile virus.

So there seems to be another anti-lockdown demo in Trafalgar Square today. Central London's turned into a no-go area on weekends now hasn't it? Thousands of credulous racists who believe the pandemic that's happing isn't actually happening, coming in from all over the country and wandering around without masks on. Throw the lot of 'em into gaol say I.

Do we have any stats yet on what percentage of people who caught it early on still have significant fatigue/breathing/nervous/heart complications 6 months later?

― Fetchboy,

I think this will be forthcoming. My duties as a contact tracer in my county now involve trying to reach people that had the virus between April and July and asking them about any persistent symptoms, or any new neurological/mental/physical developments. We fill out a questionnaire that gets sent in to some database

If you manually fill out too many questionnaires do you get... tracer hand?

strongly do not recommend becoming tracer hand, it’s debilitating

Matt#2, we were in Chinatown two weekends ago, and wandered to Trafalgar Square because the nieces wanted to see the lions, and it was totally fine, there was a small group with signs about police brutality in South America, but it was like 15 people, who were also dancing. I suspect there's a day a month where you want to avoid the normal areas where demos are, but Central London definitely isn't a no-go area on weekends in general.

Central London is a no-go area cos it's shit lol

It’s great right now because very few commuter morons are in it. *blows kiss*

I shouldn’t be shocked, but I look around and like, football is just... happening, all over the country? With crowds and stuff? God this fucking terrible country.

We officially passed a million confirmed deaths worldwide today:(

A quarter of those were in UK and US.

Washington Post article reporting how rare spread seems to be among students and within schools in Europe that have opened:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-outbreaks-schools-europe/2020/09/27/0dd19bf6-ff48-11ea-b0e4-350e4e60cc91_story.html

That is not how things are going in France.

Avec 285 foyers de contamination en cours d’investigation, le milieu scolaire et universitaire devient la première « collectivité » de circulation du virus, devant les entreprises, selon le dernier bulletin hebdomadaire de Santé publique France.

https://www.lemonde.fr/education/article/2020/09/26/covid-19-un-tiers-des-clusters-concerne-l-ecole-et-l-universite_6053758_1473685.html

Combining schools and universities is misleading though, isn't it? We're already seeing significant spreading in Scotland's universities but the schools seem to have settled down after an initial panic with seasonal snuffles when they opened.

Yes, I thought that too, but in the article they separate the two categories. It's not good in either. My two younger children's school (which is composed of both a middle school and a high school), of about 2000 students, has had a few more than 20 positive cases among students since the start of September.

looking at the US numbers today. get ready folks.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0MrEUR9Cy8M/VDhkUiRqkAI/AAAAAAAAIr4/rAqgy0gJUww/s1600/tumblr_ncy76nQdtG1r87tiqo1_500.gif

nuh uh. get with the magical thinking, it's much better. it's not happening again. it's going to go away

curious though, what makes you say that about today?

https://i.imgur.com/E56yZSB.png

looking at that, i see a rebound in new cases in the last few weeks, but also increased testing after a couple months of undulating/plateau. hospitalizations, as well, are at relatively low levels (only 30,000 people currently hospitalized, we're doing great!!)

spike in brooklyn is adjacent to my neighborhood and headed my way
i am highly concerned for myself and others that we are gonna get caught sleeping after six months of "hey if i didn't get it by now i'm sure it'll be fine" leading to a major winter deathtoll. i am back indoors (with ventilation). I jog (distanced) with a mask off. I'm no longer obsessively handwashing. I can't imagine i'm alone.

i'm putting a lot of stock in everything i've heard/read about outdoors socializing being exponentially safer than indoors. the past three Sundays I've gone to bars to watch football but I've always sat outside and of course put on a mask if I had to go inside to use the bathroom or something. of course each time I've gone inside there have been copious dumbasses just sitting inside housing their chicken wings, which was especially disturbing in week 1 because it was pretty hot that day and so the bar had its doors closed.

definitely going to suck tremendously when it gets too cold to congregate out of doors though at least here in the South that might not be until January.

yeah, i'm putting in volunteer work at a ceramics studio and have made it clear to the owners that i am expecting the front door to stay open until there's snow.

I'm getting nervous myself around here, mostly because I've heard friends and acquaintances (who have thus far been really diligent and sage) already start saying stuff like, "well I can't imagine not being able to socialize at all winter, so I'm going to have to take a few more risks". So if even the well meaning folks are hitting this point already, I fear we are doomed.

I meant "safe" not "sage", but maybe that works too.

i can feel it in my waters. spiking positivity rates in miami (already high but shooting up to 7%+ rn), new york (>3% today for the first time in months, and if they stay there they close the schools), huge outbreak in wisconsin.

but has there been a concurrent spike in hospitalization?

yeah I hope I'm wrong or there's some miracle coming soon but it really does look like things are going to get considerably worse in the following months. virtually everyone I work with who has kids is talking about how their school has at least one positive case. my son's kindergarten just had one yesterday. a friend's kid's school has 11 faculty members out. I don't think they're handling it that well. They quarantine some classes but if say, one of the kids has a sibling in another class, they won't quarantine that person.

My sister's kids started going back in person this week, two days per week. They've got a fairly robust plan in place, but I'm curious to see how it plays out in actuality. The part that has my sister worried is that it reads as if they are going to send a kid home every time they cough or sniffle and going to ask for a negative COVID test before they can come back. Which, on the face of it, seems reasonable, but I really don't see how that's not going to end up with empty classrooms anyway in the fall, in the Midwest, in an elementary school.

I'm just once again thankful that my son is still 100% remote and likely will stay that way until after the new year, at the earliest.

but has there been a concurrent spike in hospitalization?

― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, September 29, 2020 1:12 PM (twenty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i believe so in wisconsin but i can't find those numbers now.

the miami and nyc positivity spikes are very recent (literally the last couple of days), so not yet there.

wisconsin is definitely seeing a spike in hospitalizations

https://i.imgur.com/p2zcqnD.png

yeah Wisconsin is bad right now. my county has had like 20% of its total infections in the last week.

Florida will probably start going back the other way, right as we're finally moving the right direction.

yesterday I was at the supermarket and saw this lady standing there, on the phone, no mask at all (both our county and the store have mask requirements).

she started saying loudly "what are your symptoms? Ok, listen to me closely...the virus can only...."

at that point I turned tail and walked very fast in the other direction

I'm also baffled as to Lightfoot easing restrictions in restaurants and bars here at the same time we (again!) passed the threshold for what would trigger us to be added to our own quarantine travel restriction list.

a friend who teaches kindergarten is being shut down after just days of in-person class (started Monday, ending tomorrow) and going back to virtual, so at least Oregon has a clue. once we hit a certain pre-determined number, the schools stop with in-person class.

I basically told a friend from Bkln who decided (uninvited!) to come visit this weekend that he couldn't stay with us, and that a previously mentioned outdoor barbeque I'd planned (my birthday is this coming Sunday) wasn't happening because I decided to not be a host of an event where it could possibly spread. I think he is upset with me, but I'm also like...you didn't visit for the three years i've been here...and now want to visit at a time that is least appropriate? what's wrong with you?

that is how i feel about my upstairs/neighbor landlord, who decided to wait until the middle of a pandemic to do a 3+ month complete renovation on the floor above me, so that every day can include the living hell of living in a construction zone. like, given an option between what him renovating all around me during coronavirus, or him straight up punching me in the nose and breaking it, i would take the broken nose 100% of the time

our landlord chose this week to have a window company knocking on every door to come in and replace all the windows with energy efficient ones.

The windows in our apartment are in an absolute SHAMBLES but hell no you are not coming in here, see you next year for that shit.

Everyone else in the bldg is apparently fine with it.

spike in brooklyn is adjacent to my neighborhood and headed my way

same.

We've only relaxed one rule vs what we were doing four months ago, which is letting the dog play at the dog run while attempting to stay distant from all the other humans there. Might have to walk that one back soon.

But nonetheless after the summer I do feel my resolve weakened.

that is how i feel about my upstairs/neighbor landlord, who decided to wait until the middle of a pandemic to do a 3+ month complete renovation

what is it with these crazy fucking landlords

super cheap interest rates to make those capital improvements that will increase their property's value and allow higher rents in the future than if they didn't renovate.

my partner and i had to have a long conversation about how we two people in our mid-forties are going to have to move to a new apartment in the next twelve months because the guy who bought our building is just acting a fool, yay

This is good.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/30/geneva-raises-minimum-wage-covid-poverty-switzerland