outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

hospitalization rates are rising too, yes, don't have the number at hand but I'll find it eventually over the next few days at least

This says it all. pic.twitter.com/q3KwGrZaPD

— Really American 🇺🇸 (@ReallyAmerican1) October 12, 2020

.

it doesn't really say it all. yes red states have responded badly, but that's also a graph that shows blue states got it first.

that graph appears to show states in the south doing badly in the summer

https://cepr.net/waiting-for-a-vaccine-killing-for-inequality/

Another week goes by where excess deaths at home are up again, as they have been in every single week of the pandemic. It’s a terrible silent crisis. pic.twitter.com/aHp45OSWRw

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) October 13, 2020

This morning it was reported in a few UK outlets, including the Today programme, that a Nevada man was reinfected, and the second time was more severe. What I don’t understand is why this is being reported now, when this news is several weeks old?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/nevada-reinfection-case-highlights-mysteries-covid-19

Maybe because various respectable clowns are getting air time with herd immunity bollocks again.

Rude way to describe Dr Bananas imo

Yeah, I saw that Nevada report. It's still super weird and I'm not sure how important it is that there have been five confirmed reinfections out of close to 40 million cases worldwide. You'd think anyone that had it once would be aware enough to recognize if they got it a second time, so it's not like there are thousands of reinfections that have likely fallen through the cracks. Just these ... five.

Heard another report on the radio that indeed, hospitalizations are creeping up in Indiana, surely no coincidence a few weeks after their stupid governor pressed to open everything up again. In less stupid governor news, did we mention that the Wisconsin governor won his latest round against the crazies, with a court backing him (again?) when it comes to mask mandates? Either way, between WI's woes and Indiana's idiocy, things don't bode well for Illinois even if we were being as careful as we could be as long as the neighbors are nuts. Clowns to the left of us, jokers to the right ...

So...problematic interactions with delivery guys with problematic masks...*sigh*

Oh wait, think that's for the other thread.

#OneTooManyThreads

Zero reinfections would be news. Lots would be news. A handful of examples is not surprising and also nothing to worry about.

I feel if it was more widespread you’d hear more about it yeah, but still fucks me up every time I hear about a case. :(

I don't know if it's an accurate analogy but I think of it like chicken pox. Reinfections do occur but not to the extent that it's actively worrisome for those who've had it.

right. immunity isn't a binary thing. (which btw is part of the reason why a 50% effective vaccine that 50% of people choose not to get because of a total collapse in social trust doesn't get us to herd immunity right away.)

cannot recommend "on immunity" by eula biss for more on this btw.

or for a shorter read see https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/covid-19-vaccine-reality-check/614566/ (but then read https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/health/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-optimism.html because that atlantic piece is a huge bummer).

If this works, this will be just as important a development as the vaccine tbh

Oxford scientists develop five-minute COVID-19 antigen test https://t.co/JnGFL7s6rR pic.twitter.com/HyUiffnYRa

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 15, 2020

The university said it hoped to start product development of the testing device in early 2021 and have an approved device available six months afterwards.

The device is able to detect the coronavirus and distinguish it from other viruses with high accuracy, the researchers said in a pre-print study.

"Our method quickly detects intact virus particles," said Professor Achilles Kapanidis, at Oxford's Department of Physics, adding that this meant the test would be "simple, extremely rapid, and cost-effective".

That had a rapid test in the whitehouse. It doesn’t help if people don’t change their behaviour.

What we need is a daily 15-minute test that you take every morning after you brush your teeth. And everybody does that for the next 2-3 years or however long it takes to get a vaccine.

it should only be 70-80% accurate though, to make sure that you keep coming back and brushing your teeth

waht if you have Shane McGowan teeth

you could combine the two so it takes a swab while you're brushing

We need to talk about your teeth brushing method.

not saying there aren't a few problems to solve before getting the Brush'n'Swab to market

phew, I was concerned

I was serious by the way!

> not saying there aren't a few problems to solve before getting the Brush'n'Swab to market

teething problems?

gdamit

ProPublica: Inside the Fall of the CDC

Besides more detail on why the CDC's rtPCR test was a failure through January/February, Kyle McGowan looks like a small hero here, and Michael Caputo like someone personally responsible for tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Confirmed cases in the last 7 days per 100,000 people.
[Source ⁦@BBK_Bund⁩] pic.twitter.com/9q3zwV2Og3

— Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) October 16, 2020

The study of the antibodies I apparently have does not start for another month, but we know someone who has had their antibodies studied for a few months now, and with weird results. After her initial positive antibody test, each subsequent blood draw revealed decreasing antibody levels ... until they didn't. After several months of decline they suddenly spiked back up again. So strange, this covid.

My friend in NYC found this too.

How the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally may have spread coronavirus across the Upper Midwest

Within weeks of the gathering that drew nearly half a million bikers, the Dakotas, along with Wyoming, Minnesota and Montana, were leading the nation in new coronavirus infections per capita.

--

It had been a long ride back from Sturgis, S.D., so when he first felt an ache at the back of his throat, Kenny Cervantes figured he was just tired. He’d traveled the 400-some miles on his Harley, rumbling through wide-open farm and prairie land on his way home to Riverdale, Neb., where his girlfriend was waiting.

A lifelong motorcycle enthusiast, the 50-year-old construction worker and father of five had been determined to go to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, a holy grail for bikers. Even when his girlfriend, Angie Balcom, decided to stay back because she was worried about being around so many people during a pandemic, Cervantes was adamant about going.

“I don’t think there was nothing that was going to stop me,” he said.

Back home, Cervantes took Tylenol for his throat and went to bed early. But he woke up the next morning coughing so hard he struggled to catch his breath. Over the next few days, the pain in his chest made him fear that his heart might stop, and a test later confirmed he had the novel coronavirus, which causes the disease covid-19. He was admitted to the hospital 11 days later, on Aug. 27. Soon, his girlfriend and his sister were sick, and Cervantes was going over everything he did and every place he visited in Sturgis, wondering where the virus had found him.

Within weeks of the gathering, the Dakotas, along with Wyoming, Minnesota and Montana, were leading the nation in new coronavirus infections per capita. The surge was especially pronounced in North and South Dakota, where cases and hospitalization rates continued their juggernaut rise into October. Experts say they will never be able to determine how many of those cases originated at the 10-day rally, given the failure of state and local health officials to identify and monitor attendees returning home, or to trace chains of transmission after people got sick. Some, however, believe the nearly 500,000-person gathering played a role in the outbreak now consuming the Upper Midwest.

https://i.imgur.com/I6bLA2H.jpg

Of course it did, and most of those arseholes are big on freedumb.

After her initial positive antibody test, each subsequent blood draw revealed decreasing antibody levels ... until they didn't. After several months of decline they suddenly spiked back up again. So strange, this covid.

This sounds encouraging to me... like the spike indicated she had been exposed a second time and her body knew how to respond.

i think this is maybe the thread has ever gone without being bumped?

well anyway, here's the US midwest

https://i.imgur.com/8oLsoUL.png

and here's wonderwall

a v-shaped recovery

i believe that with time and a continued lack of leadership, that v will become a w

some analysts are calling it a vwv\M/W\mwv-shaped recovery

others simply say that there's no point in trying, because that would be bad for someone's political campaign, and would be stressful for public leaders

\m/._. \m/

YMMV

lol?

*treated with placebo
*of COVID-19 https://t.co/jYZFAEHWnE

— Amy Schellenbaum (@acsbaum) October 21, 2020

kind of what drives me nuts about some fellow COVID trial participants I know who are bragging about how they're gonna go back to livin' it up after they get stuck. a) you don't know if you're getting the vax or the placebo and b) you have no idea what level of protection you will get, if any, if you do get the vax.

(not that this volunteer did anything wrong, that's tragic - just illustrates why I get mad at irresponsible panelists).

Thank you for your service, Neanderthal

so FL numbers I am watching nervously as they haven't crept back up significantly yet but if they do, I fear a return to the horrific summer totals we endured earlier with little to no closures by Desantis (other than like...bars only, which he did last time)

kind of what drives me nuts about some fellow COVID trial participants I know who are bragging about how they're gonna go back to livin' it up after they get stuck. a) you don't know if you're getting the vax or the placebo and b) you have no idea what level of protection you will get, if any, if you do get the vax

if the vaccine reaches the minimum threshold for effectiveness the FDA is going to require for approval (50%) and there's two treatments in the trial, there's a 75% chance they have no immunity!

(same calculation tells you why a vaccine isn't going to change things quickly: it's effective ~half the time, and only about half of americans are going to get it, so it's going to take us from ~5% population immunity to ... 30%? a big jump that will save lives, but nowhere near the levels required for herd immunity.)