outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

hernias start to become unsurvivable when there is no one to operate on you

I was worried this morning about Australia cocking up its vaccine procurement and not ordered enough doses, but thanks to anti-vaccine idiocy it looks like I’ll have no trouble getting one of the limited number of doses.

The mayor of San Francisco (the first US city to shelter-in-place from COVID-19) just announced that a second Shelter-In-Place order is being considered as cases nearly triple over the last 3 weeks.

SF is what pushed Chicago to virtually the same thing back in March, I'm half surprised we aren't there yet but I think the business owners have been in the ears of Lightfoot and Pritzker to a degree that it'll never happen here again, no matter how bad things get.

Sacramento County back up into highest restriction tier again though i dont think we are at the shelter in place level

it’s so frustrating, plus every other county is at a different level so its just this yo yo of opening & closing, there has to be a better way but the better way is way more draconian & ppl just seem to want to do whatever the fuck they want anyway

Nearly 10% of the new US COVID cases are in Illinois, and we've maintained that pace pretty much every day for the past week or so. I expect we'll exceed it soon enough.

The mayor of San Francisco (the first US city to shelter-in-place from COVID-19) just announced that a second Shelter-In-Place order is being considered as cases nearly triple over the last 3 weeks.

in Chicago, our cases have nearly tripled as well over the last 3 weeks (7-day moving averages are up 2.66x). Our 7-day moving positive rates have doubled (5.5% to the current 10.8%), and the moving 7-day deaths are doubled as well (up 86%, 36 to 67).

I guess the same thing comes through more clearly just by looking at hospitalizations, ICU, ventilators:

https://i.imgur.com/WTirF5O.png

Meanwhile, in Brazil:

https://www.deccanherald.com/international/world-news-politics/jair-bolsonaro-asks-brazilians-not-to-deal-with-covid-19-like-fags-914199.html

Can’t wait for this guy to get it a fourth time but hopefully for real, covid has been very disappointing in this regard

Seriously.

ffs

NYS is taking action to stop the spread in response to rising COVID numbers.

Any establishment with a state liquor license, including bars and restaurants, must close at 10pm.

Gyms must also close at 10pm.

These new statewide rules will take effect Friday, 10pm.

— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 11, 2020

Sure that’ll help

Man and here I thought Chicago surely had the lock on completely throwing public safety out the window in favor of kowtowing to business leaders.

tbf, it's not just business leaders they are kowtowing to, but a large enough percentage of the population who bridle at any restrictions on their Precious Freedoms that enforcing genuinely strict measures would predictably become a test of wills between the maga-rabble and the government, requiring escalating use of force. Which would do no one any good for actually stopping the pandemic.

That's all fair and completely valid, but in Lori Lightfoot's case it has most definitely been a case of caving as soon as the business leaders shook a fist in her face. Not that the other part of your equation doesn't also apply, mind.

Viruses can't tell time

larry hogan has already written a book talking about what a good job he did in the pandemic

With surging hospitalizations and a rising positivity rate, Maryland reported 1,714 new coronavirus cases Wednesday, the third-highest single day total so far during the pandemic.

The 14-day average new case rate hit new highs again Wednesday. My story: https://t.co/IeK4I09bAL pic.twitter.com/KncjqCMLbq

— Ben Leonard (@Ben___Leonard) November 11, 2020

I know this is obviously an over-simplification, but it really feels like we all got distracted by the election for two weeks and thing just absolutely blew up everywhere.

I mean I remember being aware during election time that we were spiking nationally. FL hasn't yet matched other states in terms of severity but a) I don't trust our data and b) we are definitely starting to spike

i thought cuomo was shutting down in-person dining entirely at 10pm on friday, but i guess i read that wrong.

indoor dining is almost certainly done (as it should be)

New York follows the science.

We know indoor gatherings and parties are a major source of COVID spread.

To slow the spread, NYS will limit indoor gatherings at private residences to 10 people.

This limit takes effect Friday at 10pm.

— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 11, 2020

xpost - Oh yeah, I mean the "we all" tongue in cheek, obviously many of us were paying attention to the numbers. It just seems like a lot of politicians and public health people seem to be legit shocked this week.

Surely we'd be seeing the impacts of Halloween weekend right about now, was there that many parties and gatherings going on? It was really, really subdued and careful around here, but we do live in a lib heavy, mask wearing zone.

the reason people are shocked, at least in new york, is we are now at end-of-April levels of new cases

everybody in the world trick or treated downtown here, mostly unmasked, though I don't think *that* was likely a big spreader. parties, though, uhh let's just say there were pics of downtown areas that looked like a Japanese train car. I can't believe it was allowed to go on.

Even as I watched the numbers going up in recent weeks, I was thinking about a) long voting lines, b) people going home for Thanksgiving, c) the people who hadn't yet been hobbled by the 'vid going home for Christmas. Can't help but feel by January the numbers are going to be utterly dire.

deep thoughts: when the pandemic was pounced on by trump as yet another wedge issue to exploit for polarization, the USA lost any hope of the unified national effort needed to combat this virus. so, thousands will die needlessly. but the stupidest part of it all is, that if trump had stood up as the bearer of the unified banner, he'd have easily been re-elected as the leader of a unified nation. when he fucks up, he doesn't go halfway.

yea NY is a unique scenario as they'd previously gotten on the other side of things, whereas states like FL merely plateaued and never really squashed the curve. in fact we've never been back to the levels we were at pre-Phase 1.

We've had a few acquaintances test positive in the last few weeks and each time are like OH SHIT HOW DID THEY GET SICK WHAT MIGHT WE BE DOING WRONG???

Then my wife sees recent pictures of one and her husband maskless at a crowded bar in wisconsin - where they traveled to on purpose just to do shit like go out to bars - and we realize that we are probably going to be safe but the whole country is entirely fucked.

I operate on a moving 6 foot rule. i imagine a huge pole coming out of someone else's chest that can impale me so if they move towards me, I back up, vice versa.

I don't really buy the idea that Trump was cruising to re-election before Covid but I do think had he actually done an ~~ok~~ job on it he probably would've won

I operate on a moving 6 foot rule. i imagine a huge pole coming out of someone else's chest that can impale me so if they move towards me, I back up, vice versa.

the problem, as i see it, is that if EVERYONE was mandated to use huge hula hoops that extended out 3 feet in every direction (6-ft in diameter, 3-ft radius), it would work, because everybody's hoops would collide, and each side would contribute 3 feet of their hoop to the total distance of 6 ft.

but in reality, some people claim they can't hula hoop with a 6 ft. radius hula hoop at all times, or even that they don't WANT to. and that means that the people with 3-ft radius hula hoops are going to collide with non-hula-hoopers, which puts the collision at 3 feet away, instead of ft. unsafe!

so we're led down this crazy path where those who choose to hula-hoop have to use an even larger, 6 ft radius / 12 ft diameter hoop, to make sure they're safe from those that refuse to hoop at all. a collision between two of these extra safe hoops would be 12 feet away from each hooper

The hooper
The hyper
Protected by Viper

feel like to a certain extent it wasn't taken seriously in the us until the sports leagues shut down in march. but now some states are allowing fans at events, baseball laughed off having a positive player on the field for its championship celebration, and the NBA wants to start up in five weeks despite the situation being as bad as ever

these half- or zero-measures by cuomo reinforce for people that it's not really that bad, sucks for you if you're a parent or a teacher but whatever. still no support for restaurants, or rent relief, or anything beyond $1200 six months ago. i don't know why cuomo has attained this sheen of respectability -- the main thing separating him from the governors of texas and florida is that he hasn't called the whole thing a hoax

'it's a dark time and we all have to make sacrifices. but not *we* we'

I do think had he actually done an ~~ok~~ job on it he probably would've won

honestly I think even just making the appearance of making an earnest effort would have been good enough

Neanderthal, that one spoke to me

Surely we'd be seeing the impacts of Halloween weekend right about now, was there that many parties and gatherings going on?

my sister and her brood are at present planning to drive here (NC) from New Mexico for Christmas and presumably stay with our 66 and 65 year-old parents. I just sent her a long Facebook message asking her to reconsider, or at the very damn least take some serious precautions in terms of who they are around on the way here and once they've arrived. I think she's still fairly rational but my brother-in-law's family and friends are lousy with Trumpers who I imagine ain't wearin' no face diapers like some damn libs.

Yeah, so many spread out cases in schools popping up, I blame Halloween for sure here in NY

We've had several isolated cases at local schools, each time with no evidence of spread within the school. Some were pre-halloween fwiw.

I don’t see how bars and restaurants closing at 10 is going to do anything

I feel very worn down by the school situation. K has two hours in (but behind barriers with no breaks or anything) and the rest remote, and she's really miserable. I've advocated for a return to fuller in person school but it's an EXTREMELY divisive issue in town and I feel like I've probably made enemies who think I want their kids teachers or grandparents to die or something. There's really very little evidence of schools being high risk but people are clinging to the idea that they are and I can kind of understand it (who the hell wants to be wrong about that?)

As someone who works in a school, it's low-level terrifying every day. It only takes a couple kids slobbering and sneezing and you get dozens of staff and students quarantining. At least we haven't yet seen outbreaks in classrooms here, but that's BECAUSE we're being so careful about it imo and forcing people to stay home at signs of infection.

In my locality children are definitely picking it up outside, and I'm seeing so many kids on the street just being too cavalier about this. But so are the adults with mask usage and everyday life (eating out in tents like fools)! Many people are STILL just way too relaxed, sad to say.

Yeah the restaurant tents are bizarre. All four walls covered ~ what’s the difference from being inside?

I don’t see how bars and restaurants closing at 10 is going to do anything

If other places around the Western world are anything to go by, it's a prelude to a second (semi-)lockdown.

xp:

Diners in those transparent tents would only be exposed to their dining party and servers(s). It reduces the chance of super spreader events where one person infects dozens.

It's not a great situation, and I'd like to see DIY HEPA filtration with 20in fans in them, but I'm also sympathetic to the restaurants/cafes teetering at the edge of insolvency.

I'm speaking here of the dining "bubbles" with one table. Not those where tables are packed together under plastic sheeting...

https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/13/33/57/19774430/3/1200x0.jpg

Yeah not the individual bubbles, I’m referring to the larger tents where all the patrons are together

Yeah I’ve only seen a couple of those individual table bubbles, it’s far more likely to be the only large, enclosed tent which appears to do fuck all.

moderna's results coming in the next few days apparently:

https://www.ft.com/content/c6c6b704-964a-4df6-8330-8e3290ea65fa

Dr Fauci told the FT Live Global Pharmaceutical Summit on Wednesday that he was optimistic about a forthcoming update on the vaccine from biotech group Moderna and would “be surprised if we didn’t see a similar degree of efficacy” to the positive results released by Pfizer and BioNTech on Monday.

“We were told that literally in the next few days to a week they’ll be doing the same thing of looking at the data as the Pfizer people did a week ago,” he told the Financial Times event.

(this one can be stored/shipped at regular domestic freezer temperature IIUC)