outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Yeah needs work. It's hard because the The Offspring are such a singular band.

Nothing is as singular as the sex in your violence.

TS: YEAHYEAHYEAHYEAHYEAH vs yeah yeah, yeah yeah, yeah yeah, yeah yeah

two nations divided by a common language

Brits prefer albumar bands

Anyone else still waiting on the stimulus? I know there was a huge issue with people that filed using TurboTax or H&R Block, but that wasn't us, we got the first one just fine, haven't changed a single bit of information since the last one and still haven't seen anything.

I'm saw the IRS released a statement yesterday that is a little unclear, but essentially says "lol sorry, if you didn't get it yet, you won't so you just have to wait and file it on your taxes". Just surprised the first one seemed to go relatively smoothly, but this round is an absolute cluster.

Old Lunch - 'Still Waiting (2 B Stimulated)'

Stim Mo B There

I mean, again, it's not dire for us, but reading the IRS subreddit is heartbreaking. So many people hanging on a thread already that aren't getting their stimulus because of IRS/HR Block cock-ups and the despair is palpable. People losing apartments, people that aren't eating so they can feed their kids, people openly contemplating suicide.

It's horrible, and it's why it's outright criminal that continued payments weren't made after the original one. $600 is kicking a can down the highway for many family units and NOT getting the $600/each is just that much worse.

really hoping SAnders can exert his might and convince people to support 2k PER MONTH PER PERSON

We're back up to over 1000 deaths a day in the UK, and more people are wearing masks it's true but social distancing has completely disappeared and shops aren't enforcing queueing or restricting numbers of shoppers in their shops. It doesn't feel like 1000 people are dying a day.

There hasn't been a recent day with 1000 deaths in the UK. Highest was 600. It will go up though. April was the approx 1000 daily deaths.

Kinder, the papers are reporting 1,041 deaths, do you have info that says otherwise? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/06/uk-records-1041-more-covid-deaths. And yesterday was 840.

I haven't gotten the stim, and I got mine on schedule last year via direct dep.

Not that I'm happy to hear you and OL are still waiting, but glad I'm not alone.

There hasn't been a recent day with 1000 deaths in the UK. Highest was 600. It will go up though. April was the approx 1000 daily deaths.

― kinder, Wednesday, January 6, 2021 2:08 PM (thirty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

there have been lots of days over 600. there was one day with deaths > 1000 back in april. UK is not over 1000/day right now though.

(this is all using date of death, not date of report)

Some people are compulsive deflators of the numbers.

I'm clearly missing something, because the first figure on that page says "Deaths within 28 days of positive test
Daily 1,041"

Does that number mean something different than all the major news outlets are using it to mean (and how I understand it, based on being a media consumer rather than a medical professional or statistician)

It’s the difference between day of death and day reported. The latter figure, which most of the press focus on, is larger because of reporting lags. The day of death is more accurate but takes longer to come out for the same reason.

(The graphs make it a bit clearer on that page, because they show both unlike the figures at the top)

day reported is more up to date for the last week or two, so better reflects recent changes, but is also much more noisy because weekends, holidays, etc. generally you should ignore day reported unless you really need information about the last few days, and even then you should treat it with skepticism and take care to account for things like the bump that happens every tuesday, etc.

I think we can agree that regardless of the noise and the lags and the weekends and which number you pick we're fucked and it's getting worse.

Sorry, was busy. there's been a reporting lag over Christmas. Reporting date at the moment doesn't tell you much, date of death is the relevant metric, altho obviously there's the question of whether you look at "death within x days of a positive test" or "covid on death certificate", which has a much longer data lag.

I am not trying to downplay - I think the situation is absolutely desperate and I have had a friend die of covid and am still dealing with the fallout - but to be accurate.

Some people are compulsive deflators of the numbers.

― Bidh boladh a' mhairbh de 'n láimh fhalaimh (dowd), Wednesday, January 6, 2021 7:45 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Was this aimed at me?

Yeah, sorry. Just grumpy, and I could tell which posts were yours immediately after anyone discussed numbers.

I've corrected two numbers posted in this thread, both for the same reason, and expressed my frustration at the rather misleading focus the media has in broadcasting the difference between yesterday and today's numbers by report date, as clearly people are misinterpreting them. I would correct them upwards in the opposite situation.
I've been finding keeping track of the data since last Spring has helped me keep a handle on the whole shitshow (to a very limited extent) and to me accuracy and context is important.
The '1 in 30 Londoners had/have it over the last 2 weeks' is sadly accurate according to the ONS data, and possibly more terrifying. I think we will soon be at a point where the NHS can't do any more and deaths will skyrocket.

Apologies again.

No worries, thanks.

I haven’t seen this “London NHS two weeks from being overwhelmed” claim elsewhere but It isn’t hard to believe

https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclusive-london-will-be-overwhelmed-by-covid-in-a-fortnight-says-leaked-nhs-england-briefing/7029264.article

on Sky they just had a report about the SA variant which included what sounded like, how do I put this, informed speculation that having had COVID before might only confer a tenth of the immunity against the SA variant than being vaccinated would provide. if that makes sense. which i had not heard before. they said they'd know in 3-4 weeks. the report also included some speculation that the SA variant might be able to evade the vaccine, which is confusing in light of the first speculation. so i may be getting this wrong, or the Sky package may have gotten some of it wrong, or maybe i'm not understanding what was said. and it's speculation still at any rate. but i suddenly felt, as a COVID survivor, a whole lot less lah-di-dah about getting it again.

there can't be any hard data behind that speculation. much too soon.

F’s school had a big outbreak just before Christmas so he had to isolate. We all got symptoms again - not serious, just a lousy headachy/fatigued/bad-stomach day in bed each. So we got (multiple) tests, they all came back clear.

Other parents (who unlike us hadn’t had it before) with similar symptoms were positive.

This is sheer and quite medically ill-informed speculation but it felt like we were fighting it off. Which might make sense if indeed you only have antibodies for a relatively short amount of time and then have to generate different immune responses for a future infection which take time to mount.

Either way, yeah having had it isn’t making me too cocky about walking the plague streets rn

i found a text piece that repeats some of it. it seems i slightly muddled it - it's that 'antibodies' - of any stripe, i guess - have less of an effect on the new variant. what the TV report didn't say, but this piece does, is that this contention is in an un-peer-reviewed preprint. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-single-vaccine-dose-leads-to-greater-risk-from-new-coronavirus-variants-south-african-experts-warn-12180837

Are the capitol police generally effective by their own standards? I kind of thought it was a job like TSA inspector, ie a negligible amount of work with gun and a federal pension. Basically mall cops but with better benefits. Nothing like eg NYPD. Is that wrong?

Wrong thread sorry

stet, am I right in recalling you didn't have a positive test first time round (because they were hardly testing anyone)? Not doubting your account or anything, just trying to remember. I was actually going to ask ilxors who've had it how they felt, safety-wise.
Sorry you had to isolate before Christmas and got sick as well.

Yeah they weren’t doing testing then, but I got an antibody test later which was positive. Would really have liked the positive test at the time for proper peace of mind though (and will be getting vaccinated when the time comes)

I'd be interested to see the results of a (theoretical) nationwide antibody test. the other day 12 "new" cases were added for 1 Feb 2020. I assume not from any antibody test, but I still don't know how or why.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/07/covid-kills-half-of-sussex-care-homes-residents-over-christmas

13/27 dead since 13th december

That's awful.

Boris Johnson told parliament on Wednesday he wanted the programme to be accelerated and that 10% of care home residents and 14% of care home staff had so far received the vaccine.

Belgium is going to start vaccinating in about, oh, a couple of weeks maybe? All of our governments and 8 health ministers have to get involved first.

Everyone in BL being dead of rona will be a big help

potentially good news?
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-55574662

We'll see -- fingers crossed.

Reuters: PFIZER SAYS ITS COVID-19 VACCINE APPEARS TO WORK AGAINST MUTATION FOUND IN UK, SOUTH AFRICA VIRUS VARIANTS IN LAB STUDY

(THIS IS REALLY GOOD NEWS, DESPITE IT BEING IN ALL CAPS AS IT APPEARS ON YOUR RESPECTIVE DOOMSCROLLS)

— Vincent Lee (@Rover829) January 8, 2021

I think we can agree that regardless of the noise and the lags and the weekends and which number you pick we're fucked and it's getting worse.

― new variant (onimo), Wednesday, 6 January 2021 bookmarkflaglink

I don't think we can as such. It might be that people are being turned away from hospitals but we haven't had wider reports. ICU is either near or at capacity and the shortage of ICU trained nurses is being felt. Quality of care is not as good.

Over 1000 in Germany but it is due to Xmas reporting. From a quote I've seen the lags won't clear in Germany till mid-month.

Anyway hundreds are dying, lots of pressure, but that is the damage caused by lack of action in December. Hopefully now that schools and most things are properly shut that should take effect by mid-to-late Jan and the pressures in the NHS will decrease by Feb.

Otoh I reckon there will be more household mixing than April so...

The 7 day average for daily deaths in the UK has risen from just over 400 to almost 700 in a month and is still rising.
Daily cases has almost quadrupled in that same period and is still rising.
There are more covid patients in Scottish hospitals than at any point since the start of the pandemic. 3.5% of Scotland's deaths were recorded in the last 2 days.

I'm sticking with "fucked and getting worse".

Very much a time to despair. Reporting seems thin and the opposition are supporting the government -- part of the reason this is all happening again.

From observation on the rare times I venture out, it seems the same people who weren't bothering to distance before still aren't bothering (UK this is). I'm just leaving home for food shopping and nothing else until March, fortunately for me I can do that but I guess many can't.

Did anyone else get a message from their GP for people to stop asking them for a vaccination appointment? They must be getting inundated with requests from idiots / the desperate.

Distancing is worse than ever from what have seen. Shops aren't even pretending to enforce anything.

I'm going to join the idiot/desperate queue as I'm not convinced anyone has put me on the vulnerable list while I've been ill.