outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

I'm clearly missing something, because the first figure on that page says "Deaths within 28 days of positive test
Daily 1,041"

Does that number mean something different than all the major news outlets are using it to mean (and how I understand it, based on being a media consumer rather than a medical professional or statistician)

It’s the difference between day of death and day reported. The latter figure, which most of the press focus on, is larger because of reporting lags. The day of death is more accurate but takes longer to come out for the same reason.

(The graphs make it a bit clearer on that page, because they show both unlike the figures at the top)

day reported is more up to date for the last week or two, so better reflects recent changes, but is also much more noisy because weekends, holidays, etc. generally you should ignore day reported unless you really need information about the last few days, and even then you should treat it with skepticism and take care to account for things like the bump that happens every tuesday, etc.

I think we can agree that regardless of the noise and the lags and the weekends and which number you pick we're fucked and it's getting worse.

Sorry, was busy. there's been a reporting lag over Christmas. Reporting date at the moment doesn't tell you much, date of death is the relevant metric, altho obviously there's the question of whether you look at "death within x days of a positive test" or "covid on death certificate", which has a much longer data lag.

I am not trying to downplay - I think the situation is absolutely desperate and I have had a friend die of covid and am still dealing with the fallout - but to be accurate.

Some people are compulsive deflators of the numbers.

― Bidh boladh a' mhairbh de 'n láimh fhalaimh (dowd), Wednesday, January 6, 2021 7:45 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Was this aimed at me?

Yeah, sorry. Just grumpy, and I could tell which posts were yours immediately after anyone discussed numbers.

I've corrected two numbers posted in this thread, both for the same reason, and expressed my frustration at the rather misleading focus the media has in broadcasting the difference between yesterday and today's numbers by report date, as clearly people are misinterpreting them. I would correct them upwards in the opposite situation.
I've been finding keeping track of the data since last Spring has helped me keep a handle on the whole shitshow (to a very limited extent) and to me accuracy and context is important.
The '1 in 30 Londoners had/have it over the last 2 weeks' is sadly accurate according to the ONS data, and possibly more terrifying. I think we will soon be at a point where the NHS can't do any more and deaths will skyrocket.

Apologies again.

No worries, thanks.

I haven’t seen this “London NHS two weeks from being overwhelmed” claim elsewhere but It isn’t hard to believe

https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclusive-london-will-be-overwhelmed-by-covid-in-a-fortnight-says-leaked-nhs-england-briefing/7029264.article

on Sky they just had a report about the SA variant which included what sounded like, how do I put this, informed speculation that having had COVID before might only confer a tenth of the immunity against the SA variant than being vaccinated would provide. if that makes sense. which i had not heard before. they said they'd know in 3-4 weeks. the report also included some speculation that the SA variant might be able to evade the vaccine, which is confusing in light of the first speculation. so i may be getting this wrong, or the Sky package may have gotten some of it wrong, or maybe i'm not understanding what was said. and it's speculation still at any rate. but i suddenly felt, as a COVID survivor, a whole lot less lah-di-dah about getting it again.

there can't be any hard data behind that speculation. much too soon.

F’s school had a big outbreak just before Christmas so he had to isolate. We all got symptoms again - not serious, just a lousy headachy/fatigued/bad-stomach day in bed each. So we got (multiple) tests, they all came back clear.

Other parents (who unlike us hadn’t had it before) with similar symptoms were positive.

This is sheer and quite medically ill-informed speculation but it felt like we were fighting it off. Which might make sense if indeed you only have antibodies for a relatively short amount of time and then have to generate different immune responses for a future infection which take time to mount.

Either way, yeah having had it isn’t making me too cocky about walking the plague streets rn

i found a text piece that repeats some of it. it seems i slightly muddled it - it's that 'antibodies' - of any stripe, i guess - have less of an effect on the new variant. what the TV report didn't say, but this piece does, is that this contention is in an un-peer-reviewed preprint. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-single-vaccine-dose-leads-to-greater-risk-from-new-coronavirus-variants-south-african-experts-warn-12180837

Are the capitol police generally effective by their own standards? I kind of thought it was a job like TSA inspector, ie a negligible amount of work with gun and a federal pension. Basically mall cops but with better benefits. Nothing like eg NYPD. Is that wrong?

Wrong thread sorry

stet, am I right in recalling you didn't have a positive test first time round (because they were hardly testing anyone)? Not doubting your account or anything, just trying to remember. I was actually going to ask ilxors who've had it how they felt, safety-wise.
Sorry you had to isolate before Christmas and got sick as well.

Yeah they weren’t doing testing then, but I got an antibody test later which was positive. Would really have liked the positive test at the time for proper peace of mind though (and will be getting vaccinated when the time comes)

I'd be interested to see the results of a (theoretical) nationwide antibody test. the other day 12 "new" cases were added for 1 Feb 2020. I assume not from any antibody test, but I still don't know how or why.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/07/covid-kills-half-of-sussex-care-homes-residents-over-christmas

13/27 dead since 13th december

That's awful.

Boris Johnson told parliament on Wednesday he wanted the programme to be accelerated and that 10% of care home residents and 14% of care home staff had so far received the vaccine.

Belgium is going to start vaccinating in about, oh, a couple of weeks maybe? All of our governments and 8 health ministers have to get involved first.

Everyone in BL being dead of rona will be a big help

potentially good news?
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-55574662

We'll see -- fingers crossed.

Reuters: PFIZER SAYS ITS COVID-19 VACCINE APPEARS TO WORK AGAINST MUTATION FOUND IN UK, SOUTH AFRICA VIRUS VARIANTS IN LAB STUDY

(THIS IS REALLY GOOD NEWS, DESPITE IT BEING IN ALL CAPS AS IT APPEARS ON YOUR RESPECTIVE DOOMSCROLLS)

— Vincent Lee (@Rover829) January 8, 2021

I think we can agree that regardless of the noise and the lags and the weekends and which number you pick we're fucked and it's getting worse.

― new variant (onimo), Wednesday, 6 January 2021 bookmarkflaglink

I don't think we can as such. It might be that people are being turned away from hospitals but we haven't had wider reports. ICU is either near or at capacity and the shortage of ICU trained nurses is being felt. Quality of care is not as good.

Over 1000 in Germany but it is due to Xmas reporting. From a quote I've seen the lags won't clear in Germany till mid-month.

Anyway hundreds are dying, lots of pressure, but that is the damage caused by lack of action in December. Hopefully now that schools and most things are properly shut that should take effect by mid-to-late Jan and the pressures in the NHS will decrease by Feb.

Otoh I reckon there will be more household mixing than April so...

The 7 day average for daily deaths in the UK has risen from just over 400 to almost 700 in a month and is still rising.
Daily cases has almost quadrupled in that same period and is still rising.
There are more covid patients in Scottish hospitals than at any point since the start of the pandemic. 3.5% of Scotland's deaths were recorded in the last 2 days.

I'm sticking with "fucked and getting worse".

Very much a time to despair. Reporting seems thin and the opposition are supporting the government -- part of the reason this is all happening again.

From observation on the rare times I venture out, it seems the same people who weren't bothering to distance before still aren't bothering (UK this is). I'm just leaving home for food shopping and nothing else until March, fortunately for me I can do that but I guess many can't.

Did anyone else get a message from their GP for people to stop asking them for a vaccination appointment? They must be getting inundated with requests from idiots / the desperate.

Distancing is worse than ever from what have seen. Shops aren't even pretending to enforce anything.

I'm going to join the idiot/desperate queue as I'm not convinced anyone has put me on the vulnerable list while I've been ill.

Confirmed today as part of unblinding - I did indeed get the Moderna vaccine in both doses

Yes, I said it on the Outbeak thread: social distancing has basically ceased to exist and shops aren't bothering to restrict numbers entering or getting anyone to queue, though more people are wearing masks at least. There's absolutely no sign out there that people realize or accept that the situation is worse than ever.

It isn't getting through to people because the government and the media are not exactly shouting from the rooftops that the fact that it's worse than ever. It's like they're drunk on vaccine induced optimism.

(xp) ... oops this is the Outbreak thread!

That’s great news, Neanderthal. I was just coming here to post that the Moderna vaccine has been approved here today too.

The magical thinking problem of normally reasonable people disbelieving words that are right in front of them has been really laid bare. I don't know if I should be surprised or not? Maybe not, but still...believing that "as long as everyone wears masks (mostly) we'll all be fine!" or "I only went inside for a short time" or "if the state allows something like indoor dining, it must be safe" or "We only got together with 10 people, which is the mandated maximum--HOW COULD WE ALL HAVE GOTTEN COVID THAT KILLED 4 FAMILY MEMBERS?"

Like...I can't help these people at this point.

And I say this as someone who got together with limited family for Christmas, after testing and various precautions, and has been seeing ppl outdoors, and lives with someone who teaches in an in-person school, and so on. I'm not one of us who is completely isolating in my home for 18 months to minimize risk out of social responsibility! Which I respect! It just wasn't possible for me after the first few months.

But to look at the science and then...go to the gym?? I can't.

shops probably don't have the staff to enforce limits and distancing. Staff will be expected to do what they do on a normal day, plus the extra work of keeping themselves clean and safe (ie constant wiping and washing things), probably on less manpower because the shops are quieter and taking no money.

The problem is that monitoring the door is a full-time role - you don't see security guards jumping in to wash the dishes when the pub is quiet after all. But if you've got long stretches where nobody comes in - how do you, as a business, balance that H&S need with the sunk cost that adds no money to your margins?

there's also the fear of being physically attacked for demanding someone have a mask

*raises hand*

yeah

i'm just glad i live somewhere (nyc) where i am unlikely to be attacked for wearing a mask myself

because I live in a bluer area I haven't run into as many covidiots, but in the Cocoa Beach area, they are cocks about it. and apparently my friends and family who work in the theme parks, some have experienced harassment by guests who dicknose or flaunt the rules

Lots of shops that were enforcing distancing etc in spring are no longer doing so.
Many of them have increased profits in that same period.
They can afford to take steps to increase safety.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55594107

A further 1,325 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive Covid test - the biggest figure reported on any day since the pandemic began.

Tragic.

Most of those would have been infected before Christmas.

fucking cuomo

.@NYCMayor just announced on @brianlehrer show that the city of New Rochelle started vaccinating first responders and were fined and their vaccines taken away. @1010WINS

— Juliet Papa (@winsjuliet) January 8, 2021

shops probably don't have the staff to enforce limits and distancing. Staff will be expected to do what they do on a normal day, plus the extra work of keeping themselves clean and safe (ie constant wiping and washing things), probably on less manpower because the shops are quieter and taking no money.

The problem is that monitoring the door is a full-time role - you don't see security guards jumping in to wash the dishes when the pub is quiet after all. But if you've got long stretches where nobody comes in - how do you, as a business, balance that H&S need with the sunk cost that adds no money to your margins?

The point is they did it during the first lockdown but they aren't doing it now that things are actually worse... because, I don't know, vaccines, lockdown fatigue, who knows? I'm only talking about major supermarkets here, none of whom are going to go about of business soon.

(I keep repeating points onimo has just made)

I think the difference is now that the effects of those sunk costs are beginning to be felt. Like, it made sense to have a "doorperson" at the start when it seemed possible people might still go out and try to live normal lives around social distancing/queueing/masks. Whereas now, you can see it's nowhere near back to normal levels of physical footfall and trade, and the people who are out are - let's be honest here - the people too reckless and foolhardy to conform to the new standards of pandemic shopping without having to be told off.