We Still Have a Government, Right?: Canadian Politics 2020

Check this out:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-05_CA_Quebec_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-05_CA_Ontario_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-05_CA_British_Columbia_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-05_CA_Alberta_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Premier Doug Ford has issued his strongest warning yet in the pandemic, saying a tougher lockdown is coming amid ever-rising records in new COVID-19 cases and “scary” new computer modelling projections to be detailed early next week.

I guess the idea is to scare everyone straight. It's working on me.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2021/01/08/when-you-see-the-modelling-youll-fall-off-your-chair-doug-ford-issues-strongest-covid-19-warning-yet.html

Those stats are interesting. I’m unsure whether the residential mobility numbers being up means that more people are moving between residences or staying put in the same one though. Hopefully the latter. I’m probably personally to blame for a small part of the +7 for hiking in halton parks, but that’s literally been the only place I go besides to get groceries. If they institute a curfew here, sadly, it will not affect my current habits at all.

I don't think hiking in parks is an unsafe activity?

Unless you're in the midst of a static mob of strangers, it's as safe as it gets short of not leaving the house. Being outside is generally fine as long as you observe physical distancing, and if you're on the move, it's even safer.

That is the assumption I’ve had, and why I’ve been doing it. I did read an article in the star the other day that gave me a bit of pause, but going forward I’ll be even more careful to avoid other hikers - https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/01/04/the-risk-of-covid-19-spread-outdoors-is-higher-in-winter-than-in-summer-an-expert-explains.html
It’s easy to see in those stats how people in some of the other areas haven’t had the same option, so I can really believe that mental and physical health is suffering unequally.

If we trust corporate optimism as any kind of indicator, I did notice yesterday that Cedar Fair has just added job postings for all the seasonal positions at Wonderland (just north of Toronto, for non locals). They didn’t open at all in 2020 I believe.

My industry his started hiring like mad again after a bruta spring/summer

(xpost) I read that piece too--found it discouraging, but I just can't stop going out for twice-a-day walks. (I was stuck inside all yesterday for a variety of reasons and felt terrible when I woke up today.) It's pretty easy where I am to keep lots of space around yourself when outside.

i live in bc now and it’s definitely relevant that the culture prior to covid was that no one has friends or does anything social ever, except occasionally going outdoors on weekends

― flopson, Sunday, January 10, 2021 3:01 AM (fifteen hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

it's speculation, but vancouver/bc numbers are on the rise at a lower rate possibly due to more mask compliance, right?

like you said, weather-wise, people do stay inside in bc, but our winters are not as brutal, so people still get out more compared to montreal/quebec, and being outside reduces spread for sure

here is a cool graph that some devs did on a ctv article (it's from august, but it was updated and pulling in data from this month):

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-in-the-u-s-how-do-canada-s-provinces-rank-against-american-states-1.5051033

it's from the csse at john hopkins university github repo:

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

count difference between quebec and alberta aren't as bad now

low mask compliance (due to whatever reason, probably cultural/political, sure) would also account for saskatchewan being in the top 3

there was a discussion in the states whether more efforts should be put into better air filtration as opposed to surface sanitation, which i think was worth considering, but it's probably too expensive and too late now

Went for a long hike yesterday near Seattle and was pretty horrified by how few people on the trail were wearing masks or making any attempt at distancing. I did my best to hold my breath as I was passing people, but when you've got a group of six maskless people sauntering down a narrow trail past you, and they're all talking, there's only so much you can do.

it's speculation, but vancouver/bc numbers are on the rise at a lower rate possibly due to more mask compliance, right?

It's been mandatory in all indoor public venues since July 18 in Quebec (November 24 for BC).

sure, but what are the compliance rates? it's a hard thing to measure, but it's probably worth looking into

BC's relative success was discussed earlier in the thread. I don't think sheer strictness in and of itself was really one of the reasons given.

I can't remember the last time I saw someone without a mask at the grocery store. Actually I can: it was the day the measure came into effect.

You get fined if you don't, it's as simple as that.

This was from the summer; d/k if things have changed: https://globalnews.ca/news/7085828/bc-coronavirus-strategy/

I did my best to hold my breath as I was passing people

This is something I asked about way near the beginning of the pandemic, and to this day, I'm still clear about it. From the Star article Kim linked to above:

Winter versus summer is an important distinction. In hot humid air, droplets settle quickly to the ground and COVID does not survive long. In cold dry air, droplets evaporate rapidly, leaving COVID airborne as well as alive for much longer.

How long is "much longer"? My worst fear has always been that when I'm out walking, I walk into some space where someone else coughed three minutes earlier. They're not there, or even close anymore, but those evaporated airborne droplets are. My assumption has always been that if the droplets weren't gone, the infection rate would have long since been 100%. But that's all I have, an assumption.

Still unclear, that is.

Before the mask thing came in in BC in November most people didnt wear masks in stores and even now next to nobody wears them outside. Yet our numbers have never been crazy.

Can never really understand why we're a comparative success story

Have LTC homes been better managed? They account for the majority of deaths in ON and QC. This seemed significant:

In Quebec, massive outbreaks in long term care facilities contributed to the province’s high case numbers and death rates, Buckeridge said. Policies like allowing staff to work at multiple facilities just facilitated the virus’ spread in vulnerable populations, he said, and it was allowed for a long time. B.C. issued an order in March to stop this, although it took some time for the practice to end.

In ON, privatization of LTC has been a disaster:
https://canadatrends.ca/news/84390/for-profit-long-term-care-homes-once-again-seeing-significantly-worse-outcomes-in-ontario-s-second-wave-star-analysis-finds
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/11/18/long-term-care-fiasco-a-warning-about-private-ownership.html

It just gets worse… again:

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1762250/soins-intensifs-debordement-covid-quebec-hopitaux-delestage-opatrny

Several QC hospitals are now at capacity and patients are being transferred to other regions. And this is on top of all the non-elective surgeries, cancer screenings, etc., that are being postponed. I maintain that re-opening schools is a huge mistake in light of our current circumstances. Kids themselves are not at risk, but if they do catch it, they pass it on to more vulnerable individuals, further burdening our already enfeebled health care system.

Ford's new modelling reportedly says Ontario ICUs will be beyond capacity by February.

The school call is so tough. I really believe the best solution is to move teachers up the priority list for vaccines. Obviously, front-line workers, seniors, and vulnerable groups first. Give it to grocery store employees next. After that, I think teachers should be among the next to get it. It's the risk now vs. long-term fallout, and they're both terrible options--I know kids are resilient, but I believe the fallout will be very real. I'm thinking back to a couple of students of mine who I still see when I supply: one who's in grade 5 now and can't read, and another with vision issues plus ESL and academic issues on top of that. They were just barely hanging on before this; online for the rest of the year, and I can't see them ever recovering. They'll hopefully find their place after they leave school, but the next few years will be hell.

I really believe the best solution is to move teachers up the priority list for vaccines.

It would have been a decent start, but Legault suggested that it won't happen before April or May.

If that's the timeline--I'm sure Ontario's the same--no, it won't make a difference.

As far as I know, this is Ontario's vaccine timeline. It mentions no priority status for teachers at all: https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-implementation-plan-en-2020-12-11-v3.pdf

Some scary numbers in the Radio-Canada piece:

Samedi, l'Hôpital Anna-Laberge, de Châteauguay et celui du Suroît, à Valleyfield, ont annoncé l'interdiction des visites jusqu'à nouvel ordre, sauf exceptions. Le taux d'occupation des urgences de ces hôpitaux est de 141 %.

no priority status for teachers at all

Not surprised at all. Maybe I'm missing something--and I am admittedly biased--but to me it seems like the most obvious thing in the world if you want schools to stay open.

The schools being open as much and as long as low caseload can allow is an approach I still agree with. Aside from it being the best scenario for kids mental health, with the alternative being school at home, and problems with childcare, stats are starting to show how terrible this whole thing has been for working women. So many are dropping out of jobs to be there with the kids. And it’s worth noting how ironic it is that the most conservative types are complaining the loudest about restrictions, because it’s delivering them the biggest “win” for a return to traditional roles that many have had in their lifetimes. It is definitely an item of concern.

Vaccinating teachers wouldn't solve Parent A to Student A to Student B to Parent B transmission, but it would, presumably, eliminate the danger of Parent A to Student A to Teacher A to half the rest of the class and then back home.

Four more cases here--0-8 in the first 5 months, now 8-24 in 16 days. (Some have been cleared off; 11 active, I think.)

Yeah, teachers probably should be prioritized since the risk is coming because of the job. Families (like mine) can opt in based on knowing we can accept some risk but keep ourselves a closed circle that won’t pass further it to a vulnerable member, but the teacher is at the centre of all those circles combined and it makes sense to give them all protection possible.

The schools being open as much and as long as low caseload can allow is an approach I still agree with.

Me too, the key words being 'low caseload'. I think that ship has sailed in Quebec, less so elsewhere in Canada.

moving groups up and down priority won’t do much with the slow rollout horizon. we need to approve the AstraZeneca and Jansen vaccines asap

More grist for the mill:

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/emsb-unveils-air-purifiers-maintaining-they-will-slow-spread-of-covid-19

Even the BBC is talking about it: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55631198

So proud of my province rn.

I was out in the car when they interrupted programming for Ford's announcement. My most immediate reaction was "Can I still go for a walk?" If I interpret correctly, I can. That's good--that's really important to me, and pretty much all I ask. So a good thing.

Same for me.

I'm finding it a little difficult to figure out if this all semantics or if anything has actually changed. Ford is talking tough about big-box stores, but are there tangible differences I'm missing?

Props to Ford for taking action before it's too late. Gotta give credit where credit is due.

Agree, but they need to be clearer. Because I'm still not sure what changes on Thursday, except at the margins (i.e., younger grades have to be masked now--which, where I was supplying, they 100% were already).

ok sorry but what is "essential work" at this point

Perfect illustration of how all this really does seem like a lot of legerdemain. Non-essential curbside pickup is now restricted to the hours between 7:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. Huh? Was anybody doing curbside pickup outside those hours? The three things I can identify are 1) the primary-grade mask provision (which, as I say, is kind of needless); 2) a limit in outdoor gatherings of 5 (down from 10); and 3) Ford saying he'll really come down on big-box stores that don't follow the 50%-capacity rule.

That's great if that's true. Otherwise, there doesn't seem to be a lot here.

Am I understanding correctly that e.g. Long & McQuade can still offer curbside pickup but I would be violating the stay-at-home order and could get a fine if I went there to rent mics via curbside pickup? Unless I can make a case that it is essential?

Hadn't thought about that. Not sure they have either.

Went for my 9:00 walk, stopping into Tim Hortons (empty, double-masked) for a takeout coffee that I drink on the way back. I do this every night.

On Thursday, 1) I can still go for a walk (I think), 2) Tim Hortons will still be open for takeout (I think--even they weren't sure, but 3) if I combine the two, am I now making a non-essential trip and leaving myself open to being charged? As with Sund4r's question above, there are either incompatibilities or I'm not understanding.

will I get arrested if I go for a night jog

Double double jeopardy

Afaik, there is no curfew and leaving the house for exercise is OK so that one actually seems a little clearer.xp lol

Yes, I’m still sort of generous about his position and intentions here, simply vs what his conduct could have been, but omg... it’s super fucking stupid how contradictory and confusing these announcements still are! It isn’t clear, The actual rules not much different, but the only real takeaway today is that now they are moving towards enforcement vs suggestion.

Simon: I think the answer is no to that--Ford seemed adamant today that that was the difference in not imposing a curfew. But I don't know, maybe that question is trickier in Toronto than St. Marys (though the order is province-wide...).