outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

The point is that the advisory committee is independent of the government, it’s not the government’s decision to make.

I find that rationale fairly persuasive but using the same logic you could say why bother with clinical trials at all, why not make assumptions based on the biology. The fact that no other country seems to be taking this approach suggests that this “judgement call” is being taken in extremis for lack of other options rather than actually being ideal. I guess we have no choice but to “trust the scientists” but the world is full of scientists and they don’t all agree with each other!

I did see this option being discussed in countries with high infection rates fwiw

And yeah I do appreciate that you unlike me are a scientist but above info was sought out by me on the basis of reassurance bc I really don’t know how I would cope if something of the above does happen! So basically I am hoping that the logic of the JCVI does hold and that it all turns out ok, and I guess we’ll find out sooner rather than later.

In order to prevent any perceived conflict of interest it was agreed that the JCVI Chair (Professor Andrew Pollard), who is involved in the development of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine at Oxford, would recuse himself from all JCVI COVID-19 meetings.

Conflict aside, might have been a handy opinion on covid vaccine strategy.

my parents both got their first dose of Pfizer last week, it's really happening

:) awesome!

mine are getting their 2nd next Saturday

my partner (teacher/administrator at a local middle school in NYC) was scheduled to get her inoculation tomorrow and it was postponed for a week. I continue to be wary until open vaccines for anyone who wants them are available.

i don't think there's any particularly underhand motive in the UK stretching out the dose interval. it's a totally reasonable thing to try in a study and there's pretty good reason to think it will work (in the sense that the first dose will provide equivalent immunity to two doses that will last at least until the delayed second dose). very few two-dose vaccines require the second dose in weeks. it's typically months or years. IIUC the trial set it to 3 weeks so the trial could finish more quickly because people were dying, not because there was a particular reason to think 3 weeks was a good delay.

and i can see why they want to do this dose delay thing the context of a raging pandemic.

BUT imo it is a fucking INSANE thing to try this on the entire population of a country, and not in a legit trial. real "let's just do it and be legends" stuff.

i might be being to generous about the "nothing underhand". i can't imagine a plan like this came from the govt doctors/epidimiologists, and i wouldn't be surprised if those people objected before ultimately getting on board.

i'm not suspecting nerfariousness, more incompetence, corner-cutting and a profound inability to anticipate outcomes, but this thread has definitely eased my mind

Just signed up in SF, and got an email telling me they hope to have vaccines for everyone by the end of the year. Please over-deliver, for once, stupid government.

i can't imagine a plan like this came from the govt doctors/epidimiologists, and i wouldn't be surprised if those people objected before ultimately getting on board.

Maybe worth noting the difference in the much reported timeline we're all working to (12 weeks) and the actual JVCI report's recommendation (3 to 12 weeks) to see where science met politics.

haha yeah the centrist compromise model of science

Lol

Today was a good day. I have never been happier to wait in a line. If you’re eligible, join me and sign up to get your vaccine. Come with me if you want to live! pic.twitter.com/xJi86qQNcm

— Arnold (@Schwarzenegger) January 20, 2021

And yeah I do appreciate that you unlike me are a scientist but above info was sought out by me on the basis of reassurance bc I really don’t know how I would cope if something of the above does happen! So basically I am hoping that the logic of the JCVI does hold and that it all turns out ok, and I guess we’ll find out sooner rather than later.

First (eldest) member of my extended family will get vaccinated next week!

:) awesome!

I put a note on my calendar for June 15, 2022, which is the earliest date I assume I'll be able to get the vaccine. As someone who doesn't fall into any of the higher risk categories, I'll be in the last group, which is fair and appropriate - no complaints on that front. I just want to approach this a little more realistically and I'm baffled by hearing folks I work with talking as if we will all have it by this June. That feels like madness, given what we've seen so far and what we know at this point about Biden's team having to effectively start over with a distribution plan.

This is not more realistic

Eh, I think it's downright optimistic for a pessimist like me, given that the current rate for my state puts us at +/- 5 years for 80% of the residents to get vaccinated.

Majority vaccination in September at best, imo... and that's assuming most people who even want it, will get it. There will probably be at least 10-20% of the population who will refuse the vax or believe their acquired immunity is enough

the vaccine was just approved fairly recently and it's not until literally yesterday that we installed a federal government that cares if you live or die. I don't think we'll be "at the current rate" for long.

right

Oh absolutely, don't get me wrong, I'm actually feeling much more optimistic now that the Biden administration is taking over, without a doubt. But, it's not like he just flips a switch and it gets instantly better. If there was truly no plan, there is a ton of supply chain and distribution issues that need to be addressed, likely new contracts and agreements hammered out, etc etc. As pointed out above, we'll hope that Biden's team was smart enough to already have pieces in motion to make it as smooth as possible, but it will be weeks, possibly even months, until we see a demonstrable difference on the vaccine quantities "in the wild" and an appreciable rise in vaccination rates from state-to-state.

I mean...

Majority vaccination in September at best, imo...

This feels right, but we're talking "at best". So playing that out, a reasonable target 9 months after that doesn't seem that crazy to me.

Surprising absolutely not one, today we discover that…

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/report-biden-admin-discovers-trump-had-zero-plans-for-covid-vaccine-distribution

Yep, exactly what I was referring to upthread. Thought that was already linked itt, but must have seen it in one of the politics threads.

*no one

xp ah, my bad.

no it's good to put here as well, yeah it was on uspol but that'll fly by in seconds

^ otm

This is good posting

Professor @Schwarzenegger’s Facebook class is back in session in the comments on his vaccine video. pic.twitter.com/47rmniAK5M

— Daniel Ketchell (@ketch) January 20, 2021

lol i almost cried reading that. my second-cousin is posting a lot of anti-vaxxer content on instagram and i feel like i can't convince her of anything

Implying there is such a thing as a society and that you can trust 'experts' you've never met in person. Pff…

"if your vaccine is so safe, why won't you admit it's not?"

Well, you see, Brad, every time someone says you ought to give credence to knowledgeable individuals, the subtext is that they're manipulating you into submission with the backing of Big Pharma. Real critical thinking consists of doing the exact opposite of what you're told, because truths are lies and lies are truths.

If you'd told me I'd live to see Arnold Schwarzenegger become one of the more sober public voices in a time of crisis...

"if your vaccine is so safe, why won't you admit it's not?"

Sadly this is not too far off from screenshots my wife sent me from some member of her extended family.

I’m going to start all my good posts with “I have been called the greatest body builder of all time@ now

THE EXPERTS WERE NEVER EXPERTS, THE SOUL FORCE IS WITHIN U, WAKE UP DOLLY CLONES!

wish arnold would post on thread of getting sw0le

if you want to learn about building biceps, listen to me

He will pump you up, iirc.

remember when he called anti-Iraq war ppl "girly men"

way to be offensive and ruin Hanz and Franz!

Arnold showed up at my brother's soccer tournament as a special guest once. kinda bizarre that this is who you'd invite to a soccer tourney as a guest star and not like, idk, an actual soccer player.

he had a bunch of cameras around him and people threw him soccer balls and he tried to head them. he missed half of them

when I was 7 or 8 my Dad met him and called us to have him say hello. Though I strongly suspect it was just Dad doing a bad impression.

lol

Big Sturm Graz fan, Arnie.

haha xxp