outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

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My sister-in-law is a reporter/occasional anchor on WUSA, cool to see her colleagues’ work get mentioned

Hello Nice FBI Lady (DJP), Friday, 29 January 2021 16:03 (three years ago) link

My sister’s friend - a healthy woman in her 20s - was hospitalised with covid last year and is now registered disabled & doctors have told her she is likely to be living with the effects for the rest of her life. My sister told me she can’t take a shower without needing to lie down after. She posted on fb from the hospital a few months after being diagnosed, her lungs were operating at half capacity and her O2 dropped about 10% when she walked any distance.

Obviously this is not the norm for a fit and healthy young person - *as every single person you are talking to knows*, majority are mild or asymptomatic - but man alive, claiming that you are just talking about “some media reports” does feel like goalpost shifting when you were directly responding to gyac’s post that simply (correctly) said that lots of ppl will suffer heart & lung damage with a post downplaying that. If all you were arguing against is the notion that mild or asymptomatic cases will result in organ damage, something nobody itt said or thinks, then fine I guess? But that’s not what it looked like esp coming hot on the heels of ridiculous horseshit like “I think we have a milder variant because nobody I know has been hospitalised lately”

Yelp for gyros (wins), Friday, 29 January 2021 16:07 (three years ago) link

“Today everything suggests that it is almost ineffective for those over 65, and some say over 60.”

"Many people say ~insert lie~"

Is a very Trumpian formation

new variant (onimo), Friday, 29 January 2021 16:14 (three years ago) link

yo Clay just a shoutout to say I'm glad you're here, and thanks for those posts

Überschadenfreude (sleeve), Friday, 29 January 2021 16:26 (three years ago) link

sorry folks but macron is, well, he's not right, because the trial was so badly run that no one really knows if the AZ vaccine works for 65+, but there is basically no evidence that either way. which is not to say it doesn't. it would be a surprise. but "no evidence either way" is not the stuff agency approvals are made of, and its honestly bordering on reckless (like so many things about the UK respone) to approve it.

the german report on their (non)approval breaks this down. they enrolled too few old people in the trial. they got one case of covid among 300ish 65+ people in both the control arm and the treatment arm. the vaccine is somewhere between -1405% effective and +94%. i.e. they are guessing.

Here it is: the crucial table showing Germany's calculations on the AstraZeneca vaccine's efficacy in over-65s. And good God, look at that confidence interval! For over-65s there was only one infection in the treatment group and one in the placebo group. pic.twitter.com/edUPhaL7sS

— Oliver Moody (@olivernmoody) January 28, 2021

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 29 January 2021 17:17 (three years ago) link

nothing magic happens when you turn 65, and it would be a surprise if it didn't work, but they don't have the right data to say.

in an ideal world you wouldn't give healthy people a vaccination (which is not zero risk) unless you knew for sure that it worked. if we weren't in pandemic this vaccine would not be in use anywhere in the world. even in the "let's just do it an be legends" countries.

but we're in a pandemic so fair enough.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 29 January 2021 17:31 (three years ago) link

xp appreciate the “can’t guarantee based on lack of data” but think Daniel Howdon is otm both itt

The 8% story about the AZ vaccine was I guess based on this 6.3% number here, the central estimate for an effectiveness calculation based on one event being observed from ~300 in each treatment arm. In a way, less stupid than the previous speculation; in another, much, much more. pic.twitter.com/JgP2TuwYoN

— Daniel Howdon (@danielhowdon) January 28, 2021

& also that Macron’s intervention isn’t going to do anything great for French citizens already sceptical of vaccines

jfc this might look less unhinged but it's probably going to cause much, much more harm than Trump's bizarre ramblings about "getting light inside the body"

— Daniel Howdon (@danielhowdon) January 29, 2021

scampish inquisition (gyac), Friday, 29 January 2021 17:55 (three years ago) link

I don’t understand the difference between saying it’s all good for a 64 year old and 65 year olds shouldn’t get it at all tbh

― scampish inquisition (gyac), Friday, January 29, 2021 11:01 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

the cutoff is arbitrary, but the idea that vaccines are less effective in older people is solidly grounded. it’s true of virtually any vaccine afaik and there was suggestion of this with the pfizer/moderna data iirc though the numbers of patients >65 in those trials were (regrettably) small and therefore the estimates are less precise

that said even if they are less effective on an individual basis, the risk older people face is so much higher that prioritizing them is still
important

k3vin k., Friday, 29 January 2021 17:57 (three years ago) link

sorry folks but macron is, well, he's not right, because the trial was so badly run that no one really knows if the AZ vaccine works for 65+, but there is basically no evidence that either way. which is not to say it doesn't. it would be a surprise. but "no evidence either way" is not the stuff agency approvals are made of, and its honestly bordering on reckless (like so many things about the UK respone) to approve it.

the german report on their (non)approval breaks this down. they enrolled too few old people in the trial. they got one case of covid among 300ish 65+ people in both the control arm and the treatment arm. the vaccine is somewhere between -1405% effective and +94%. i.e. they are guessing.

But the EU have approved the AZ vaccine?

Waterloo Subset (Tom D.), Friday, 29 January 2021 18:05 (three years ago) link

Oh, I see, the Germans haven't. I forgot the German and the French are allowed to do what they like in the EU.

Waterloo Subset (Tom D.), Friday, 29 January 2021 18:08 (three years ago) link

xps ty k3vin, that makes sense to me

scampish inquisition (gyac), Friday, 29 January 2021 18:13 (three years ago) link

AFAICT, howdon is saying "the best guess _based only on that data_ is that it barely works for 65+, but that's probably not a very good guess because the samples were tiny so the uncertainties are huge". that's true?

& also that Macron’s intervention isn’t going to do anything great for French citizens already sceptical of vaccines

honestly i kind of feel like this is on the people at AZ and oxford who fucked up the trial so badly that they only saw one (1) (one!!!!!!!!) case among unvaccinated people in the most vulnerable population (this of course isn't the only way they fucked it up, there was the whole half dose thing, small samples, etc).

i know the politics of vaccines in france are particularly weird, and maybe the right move here is to say "this vaccine would be approved even if there weren't a raging pandemic" but ... well, that _is_ a lie.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 29 January 2021 18:27 (three years ago) link

i should be clear, i think approving AZ and getting it into arms is the right thing to do. it's undergone more than enough testing to know it's safe, it would be surprising if the efficacy for over 65s really were 7% or whatever, people are dying right now, and we're short of vaccine supply.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 29 January 2021 18:52 (three years ago) link

Great shitpost

It is quite funny to hear senior officials from Brazil, India and US talk about freedom and democracy 10 times in a five minute speech. They happen to be the 3 countries with the most Covid-19 cases in the world. Too free?

— Chen Weihua (陈卫华) (@chenweihua) January 29, 2021

xyzzzz__, Friday, 29 January 2021 18:56 (three years ago) link

lol, he is the guy who called marsha blackburn "a lifetime bitch" i'm pretty sure

superdeep borehole (harbl), Friday, 29 January 2021 19:02 (three years ago) link

that "China state-affiliated media" tag sure is something

Canon in Deez (silby), Friday, 29 January 2021 19:03 (three years ago) link

It's true, we could use some less inhibited strong men to lead us – Bolsonaro, Modi and Trump did not go far enough. Unless…

https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/covid-performance/#politics

pomenitul, Friday, 29 January 2021 19:08 (three years ago) link

vaccine approval for kids may be closer than i realised (bit in here about how these trials work too) https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-pandemic-infectious-diseases-coronavirus-vaccine-47af1ca6b75a2cedaac7923b7b084404

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 29 January 2021 21:37 (three years ago) link

i thought it was like "we have to do another 30k person trial but with kids" but it sounds like they set the bar lower (is it safe, does it work better than chance), which requires a smaller sample. but they do a kind of a ladder of trials going down the age groups, which makes things take longer.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 29 January 2021 21:39 (three years ago) link

For anyone interested in long covid, it’s the focus of the latest briefing by the Independent SAGE panel as they’ve just published a report on it. Worth a look:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5YRGAk0Rdo

First 14 mins are uk-specific weekly stats then main discussion starts. I like these briefings, they do a good job of communicating the concerns of scientists to a lay audience and go into what gets (quite deliberately) left out of the government messaging. (For non-uk ppl, indie sage is a counterpart to the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies that was set up due to concerns about the lack of transparency and, well, non-independence of sage) (also for non-uk ppl: play this video for blood sausage content like “there are people wandering the aisles of Tesco with diarrhoea and covid toes”)

Report here: https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Long-COVID_FINAL.pdf

Yelp for gyros (wins), Saturday, 30 January 2021 10:34 (three years ago) link

Indie SAGE: a mix of MHRA and Public Health England with the swagger of Chris Whitty

ukania west (Bananaman Begins), Saturday, 30 January 2021 11:26 (three years ago) link

Indie Saga: the demo who will be taking cruise holidays in a couple of decades

Yelp for gyros (wins), Saturday, 30 January 2021 11:31 (three years ago) link

I want to echo Clay in a slightly different way...a few of my best friends haven't really left their houses in months, haven't seen anyone except from their porches, etc. That we're going to be in this sort of state for another 6 months to a year is fucked up, and I don't blame you for any despair.

I'll also say that as someone who had stage IIIb cancer, major surgery, and a huge new weird body thing to deal with, emerging into a pandemic has not been ideal. 2020 was the year I was supposed to see all the friends and places I missed when I couldn't in 2019.

So please, vent and share yr despair, yes. Also know that it actually can still be a distinct pleasure to be alive in this time-- do whatever you can to find that center, and try to operate from there. Even I lose focus on this at times, but it has helped me immensely.

The return of our beloved potatoes (the table is the table), Saturday, 30 January 2021 13:11 (three years ago) link

They're vaxxed.
They're vaxxed.
My folks are fully vaxxed.

*Whistles*

https://i.ibb.co/HB2WMxj/FB-IMG-1612027039115.jpg

if Spaghetti-Os had whammy bars (Neanderthal), Saturday, 30 January 2021 17:19 (three years ago) link

Seminole County FL has their shit together. They were inviting people with later appointments in early as they're AHEAD of schedule.

We got called before we were done filling out paperwork

if Spaghetti-Os had whammy bars (Neanderthal), Saturday, 30 January 2021 17:20 (three years ago) link

congrats!

Here's hoping Miami-Dade gets their shit together.

meticulously crafted, socially responsible, morally upsta (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 30 January 2021 17:23 (three years ago) link

'Grats, that's excellent news.

pomenitul, Saturday, 30 January 2021 17:24 (three years ago) link

Wonderful to hear.

Ned Raggett, Saturday, 30 January 2021 17:30 (three years ago) link

Congrats Neanderthal, great news indeed.

soaring skrrrtpeggios (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Saturday, 30 January 2021 19:39 (three years ago) link

I am really glad to hear this, neanderthal! My mom is supposed to get her first dose tomorrow (congregate senior living facility in Indianapolis).

Jaq, Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:27 (three years ago) link

congrats caveman and extended cavefamily!

"covid toes"?

That's not really my scene (I'm 41) (forksclovetofu), Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:40 (three years ago) link

covid toe is real ppl, wake the fuck up

Yelp for gyros (wins), Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:42 (three years ago) link

My mom gets her second dose this week but the email they sent that has to be printed was ridiculous - most of it was a 8000px wide image (which includes the barcode that's actually necessary). If she didn't have me to fix it, not sure how that printing would have happened.

Joe Biden Stan Account (milo z), Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:42 (three years ago) link

They’re wandering the aisles of Tesco for Christ’s sake

Yelp for gyros (wins), Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:43 (three years ago) link

Short for covid cameltoe iirc.

pomenitul, Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:44 (three years ago) link

wow, i thought i had kept up with news on this but that is the first time i've heard of "covid toes" and that article is from May! i don't know anything.

That's not really my scene (I'm 41) (forksclovetofu), Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:48 (three years ago) link

I've also spent too much time reading up on this shit and I'd never heard of it before today either.

pomenitul, Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:49 (three years ago) link

Nobody wants to talk about the toes

Yelp for gyros (wins), Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:50 (three years ago) link

I suspect a cover up, the media are in the pocket of Big Toe

Yelp for gyros (wins), Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:50 (three years ago) link

It's true, they're toeing the line.

pomenitul, Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:51 (three years ago) link

My partner and I think we have covid toe at the moment. It's like chilbains, and pretty painful - an immune system thing, apparently. We're reasonably sure we had Covid last March, so not sure if this means we got it again, or what.

Ray Cooney as "Crotch" (stevie), Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:58 (three years ago) link

Haha, everyone knows about covid toe here. You see them all the time in Tesco.

scampish inquisition (gyac), Saturday, 30 January 2021 20:58 (three years ago) link

do britishers all wear flipflops or something? I haven't seen anyone's toes in public since august and even then it's a socks and sandals situation among city dweller so as to not get dogshit on your heels

That's not really my scene (I'm 41) (forksclovetofu), Saturday, 30 January 2021 21:01 (three years ago) link

just saw the true/false film festival in Columbia, MO is still planning on holding an IN-PERSON film festival in May. They were also amongst the last film festivals to be held last year, despite ample indications that they shouldn't have done it then, either.

this is their latest news release (from November 25, 2020). i put my snark in italics, sorry

https://truefalse.org/t-f-announces-direction-for-the-2021-fest/

A Celebration of Resilience and the Arts a superspreader celebration of resilience, jfc

In 2021, the 18th annual True/False Film Fest will be a microcosm of its own artistic theme: The Nature of Uncertainty. jfcAcknowledging and responding to a collective pandemic consciousness, the 2021 theme is a reminder that tumultuous times invite creative reimaginings. In that spirit, True/False 2021 will be an outdoor, communal celebration of resilience and the arts. Running from May 5th to 9th (two months later than the Fest’s usual dates), True/False will inhabit the 116-acre Stephens Lake Park for an in-person experience that maintains awareness of current circumstances, meets a need for shared joy, and delivers the world-class cutting edge nonfiction film that is the hallmark of the festival.

Over its five evenings, True/False will present a carefully selected group of brand-new films. During daylight hours, audiences will be invited to take in performances from an equally curated roster of musicians, site-sympathetic visual art across the park, and other essential festival events like Gimme Truth! and Campfire Stories. Outside of the screening venues, the park will be an open space, allowing everyone to access the festival atmosphere with both free and ticketed offerings. There will be an additional drive-in screen, and exclusive, private screenings at Ragtag Cinema throughout the five days.

May 7, the Friday of the Fest, will be a celebration of and in downtown Columbia, the once and future T/F home. On Friday evening, the May-March parade from downtown to the park will bridge the two ecosystems (??? uh), and on Saturday and Sunday of the Fest, the energy will be amplified with the addition of a pop-up dining and shopping district in the park.

While the heart of the Fest will take place in-person, a virtual component known as The Teleported Fest will also be available on a limited basis. This option offers a complete at-home immersive experience, from elaborate daily package deliveries to interactive happenings and, of course, a hyper-curated group of brand-new films. Like nothing else to date, The Teleported Fest gets as close to the handmade ethos and communal conviviality of T/F as is possible from afar. and why is it, again, that some people would like to stay as far away from a festival as possible, again? oh yeah, the pandemic, which is why every other film festival has gone digital. not good, but also not holding a fucking in-person film festival that draws people in from across the country, and not only that, draws people that don't have a problem with attending an in-person film fest, meaning that the attendees will be disproportionately covidiotic, while all the weenies who care about public health sit at home, wishing that T/F would have expanded the digital part of it instead of begging everyone to infiltrate a downtown

Ragtag Film Society has spent the past 8 months working closely with the Columbia/Boone County Department of Public Health and Human Services to provide safe cinematic experiences. As True/False will likely be the first in-person festival of its size in the U.S. in 2021, safety will continue to be a top priority in all decisions moving forward. All Park venue seating will be socially distanced, masks will be required, and hand sanitizer will be abundantly available. True/False has been called “Columbia at its best”, and organizers expect T/F 2021 to be Columbia at its best in a pandemic. "organizers expect"...and if the unexpected (by some) public health disaster happens, then organizers will be disappointed with Columbia, which will have not have been "at its best in a pandemic", pfft

All passes for the 2021 Fest will be available at truefalse.org beginning November 28, 2020. More information about a pre-Fest celebration, the Rites of Spring event, to be held March 5, 2021, will be released in January.

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 January 2021 21:02 (three years ago) link

I have pretty bad chilblains atm, only about 45 years after first being warned about going straight in front of the three-bar fire after coming in from the snow. I guess I had a pretty good run. The COVID link may be coincidental rather than causal? I’m certainly spending a lot more time in a chilly house rather than a warm office, and there’s a lot of hand washing going on. But the way it’s working its way through the extremities does feel a bit viral. Three weeks of this now.

Michael Jones, Saturday, 30 January 2021 21:09 (three years ago) link

As True/False will likely be the first in-person festival of its size in the U.S. in 2021, safety will continue to be a top priority in all decisions moving forward

i mean

gee whiz, i wonder why they'll likely be the first in-person festival of its size?? in the U.S., in 2021? glad they're looking out for public safety though.

Karl Malone, Saturday, 30 January 2021 21:09 (three years ago) link

Some really unrealistic stuff coming from the culture industry here too, a few weeks ago I was listening to bbc 6music and in a discussion of music news they were talking about the possibility of big music festivals coming back in the summer and I was like lads... be serious

Yelp for gyros (wins), Saturday, 30 January 2021 21:18 (three years ago) link


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