outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

if you are in the US and trying to figure out when you might get vaccinated, you also need to account for the fact that lots of people have already had COVID and lots of people will refuse to be vaccinated. For better or worse, those will impact the timeline to an extent.

I also saw that they are now saying September 23rd as the target date for 70% vaccination in the US at the current rate, while it was September 11th just two days ago.

That date is based on daily average first doses of 886,656. We're doing 1.3 million first doses a day now and that will rise as supply rises.

I mean....I see no cause for pessimism anymore. Vaccination rates will keep expanding. Several vaccines will hit the market. It seemed impossible to think so last summer, but it looks like we may be looking at some semblance of normality -- do I have to add an asterix? -- by late summer.

That date is based on daily average first doses of 886,656. We're doing 1.3 million first doses a day now and that will rise as supply rises.

No, that date, at least on the NYTimes site, is changing each day and is pinned to the daily average rate. It dropped a little since last week, so the date has pushed back out a little. I am very hopeful this starts to move back in the other direction soon, but just wanted to point out that it is shifting with the data.

The table on the Times you're looking at specifies the daily average first doses of 886,656.

Sorry, they mean the average per day to date.

someone post the link and i'll explain why you're all wrong

thank you: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

yeah that projection date is complete bullshit and it's honestly disappointing to see the NYT publish it.

firstly, we're not doing 886,656 doses/day at the moment. we're doing more than that.

but even if we were, you can't take that number and divide the number of people by it and get an estimate of when we'll be done that can be trusted to any more than +/- a couple of months, never mind one that is worth worrying about it changing by a week or two from day to day.

please ignore it.

FWIW the 886,656 doses/day refers to first does, not total doses. It also does not take into account future additional vaccines. The projection is just Moderna/Pfizer.

really need the needle to settle things IMO

I highly encourage jvc and others to step away from the data as much as possible. It really isn't helping you or anyone else to be freaking out over every little blip.

By Mon/Tue, California will surpass New York as the state with the most Coronavirus deaths in USA.

(for the sake of scale, I should note that California is #33 in COVID deaths/capita whereas NY is #2 to NJ).

more telling overall to break it down the deaths per capita by counties, or minority status, or employment, or net worth, or incarceral status. Just breaking it down by state excludes too many noteworthy variables.

go for it

today first day with over 2m doses administered in the US according to the bloomberg tracker. keep that rate up and we'll be done by the end of the summer, probably sooner assuming 1/3 of people can't/won't be vaccinated.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

The missteps and lurches in the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine program — which may yet prove to be a key global supplier of #Covid19 vaccine — are going to make a fascinating book. Here's chapter 1. https://t.co/HhHXHei5zl

— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 5, 2021

lots of messy stats and logisitcs inside baseball in there, probably of limited interest, but one piece of good news:

Now the US trial is fully enrolled, with data expected in the coming weeks. AstraZeneca is hoping for an emergency approval by April. Soriot has been busy talking to the US regulator, in meetings that one person close to the company described as “very constructive”. The data will be an important test not just for the US, but eagerly awaited by other countries wanting more information.

Some bad news. It seems the AstraZeneca vaccine was not effective at preventing cases of the South African variant in a new study.

In the AstraZeneca-Oxford trial in South Africa, roughly 2,000 participants were given either two doses of the vaccine or placebo shots.

There was virtually no difference in the numbers of people in the vaccine and placebo groups who were infected with B.1.351, suggesting that the vaccine did little to protect against the new variant. Nineteen of the 748 people in the group that was given the vaccine were infected with the new variant, compared to 20 out of 714 people in the group that was given a placebo.

That equates to a vaccine efficacy of 10 percent, though the scientists did not have enough statistical confidence to know for sure whether that figure would hold among more people.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/07/world/covid-19-coronavirus

the scientists did not have enough statistical confidence to know for sure whether that figure would hold among more people.

no kidding. i mean it makes sense that SA might switch to another vaccine out of an abundance of caution, but the reporting about this has been pretty irresponsible (incl. the NYT)

Here is the key slide from the South Africa variant press conference. Note that confidence interval extends from -50% to +60%, w/ a 22% estimate.

42 cases. pic.twitter.com/gH2sLOljqt

— Matthew Herper (@matthewherper) February 7, 2021

I thought this was good at explaining the likely outcome re vaccines and why we shouldn’t panic over these variants.

It’s a small study so the efficacy estimate is very imprecise ie inconclusive. It’s also looking at mild and moderate outcomes only, not what we really care about. Good basic explanation of that herehttps://t.co/2jkdbk1S04

— Aaron Richterman, MD (@AaronRichterman) February 7, 2021

Right. That study doesn’t tell us not to worry. But it doesn’t particularly tell us to worry either.

On first glance, those numbers are startling, and they suggest that the B.1.351 variant rendered the otherwise effective vaccine nearly useless. But, with a closer look, those numbers are almost uninterpretable. The trial was just too small to produce statistically solid results. Thus, each efficacy calculation has huge confidence intervals. For instance, the vaccine’s ending efficacy of 22 percent—based on a total of 42 coronavirus infections in the trial—had a plausible estimate range of between -50 percent effective and 60 percent effective.

Thrilled to learn my folks will get their first shots this week.

I've been feeling pretty negative lately long-term--that these variants are going to bring everything to a halt again in two months--but that NYT piece just above is fairly encouraging.

15m people in front of me in the uk queue, but that's down from 17m last week

I've been feeling pretty negative lately long-term--that these variants are going to bring everything to a halt again in two months--but that NYT piece just above is fairly encouraging.

Yeah, although (take a deep breath) I'm still predicting lockdown ease in a couple of months followed by cases surge again resulting in another lockdown but probably not as serious as previous ones and I'm sure we're seeing a dillution in serious infections now due to vaccines, but still life being disrupted in some way for the rest of the year maybe. (uk perspective)

15m people in front of me in the uk queue, but that's down from 17m last week

― koogs, Tuesday, 9 February 2021 09:41 (forty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

that's a lot of politely shuffling forward

My folks got their first shot on Saturday. Woo!

it doesn't even require variants to bring everything to a halt again. everything should be at a halt already. governments keep opening shit up when infections are higher than previously required lockdown.

I feel like opening indoor seating at restaurants in Chicago, for up to groups of 10(!) is going to put us back in a terrible position by late March.

You feel that about everything

Despite my admittedly over the top fretting about the vaccine roll-out, I think it's valid to think we aren't ready to be seating groups of 10 in restaurants yet. I don't think that's ridiculous to think, but I guess it's easier to just shit on me in multiple threads.

Serves me right for not finishing that sentence. Indoor dining is a stupid idea, yes.

Pretty sure I only eyerolled at you in this one.

Just came from having my part one - apparently I’m in a priority group because I had cancer as a child?

💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻

just found out my folks are finally in line to get their first shots tomorrow, huge relief on my psyche

great news Ned, Alfred, suzy, and dan! glad to hear more ilxors and/or ilxor family members getting shots.

(thank god I caught the typo before I sent that)

"Thanks, but they prefer pants to shorts."

my folks (mom and stepdad + dad) have all at least gotten their first shots and are scheduled for their second next week. it's pretty cool

woohoo!!!

USA rolling 7-day average deaths per day dropped under 3,000 for the first time since January 8th (32 days ago):

https://i.imgur.com/2Ym5n3G.png

3,265 people died today, which is... staggering.

USA should pass 500k deaths ~Feb 17th. Half of USA COVID deaths occurred in the past three months between Nov 17 - Feb 17.

Good long read on the school dilemma.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/magazine/school-reopenings-rhode-island.html

Yeah, this quagmire becomes less psychically burdensome as the people in my life are getting their jabs. My mom and my gf's parents have all had their first, and we each have a brother in the medical field who's received both.

An open letter was published in Le Monde today calling on governments to stand against the protection of strong intellectual patent laws for the Covid vaccines, as they should be viewed as global public goods.

An English version can be found here.

I agree with that, but I’d go (not that much) further and say every drug is a global public good and none should have patent protection