outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

go for it

today first day with over 2m doses administered in the US according to the bloomberg tracker. keep that rate up and we'll be done by the end of the summer, probably sooner assuming 1/3 of people can't/won't be vaccinated.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

The missteps and lurches in the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine program — which may yet prove to be a key global supplier of #Covid19 vaccine — are going to make a fascinating book. Here's chapter 1. https://t.co/HhHXHei5zl

— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 5, 2021

lots of messy stats and logisitcs inside baseball in there, probably of limited interest, but one piece of good news:

Now the US trial is fully enrolled, with data expected in the coming weeks. AstraZeneca is hoping for an emergency approval by April. Soriot has been busy talking to the US regulator, in meetings that one person close to the company described as “very constructive”. The data will be an important test not just for the US, but eagerly awaited by other countries wanting more information.

Some bad news. It seems the AstraZeneca vaccine was not effective at preventing cases of the South African variant in a new study.

In the AstraZeneca-Oxford trial in South Africa, roughly 2,000 participants were given either two doses of the vaccine or placebo shots.

There was virtually no difference in the numbers of people in the vaccine and placebo groups who were infected with B.1.351, suggesting that the vaccine did little to protect against the new variant. Nineteen of the 748 people in the group that was given the vaccine were infected with the new variant, compared to 20 out of 714 people in the group that was given a placebo.

That equates to a vaccine efficacy of 10 percent, though the scientists did not have enough statistical confidence to know for sure whether that figure would hold among more people.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/07/world/covid-19-coronavirus

the scientists did not have enough statistical confidence to know for sure whether that figure would hold among more people.

no kidding. i mean it makes sense that SA might switch to another vaccine out of an abundance of caution, but the reporting about this has been pretty irresponsible (incl. the NYT)

Here is the key slide from the South Africa variant press conference. Note that confidence interval extends from -50% to +60%, w/ a 22% estimate.

42 cases. pic.twitter.com/gH2sLOljqt

— Matthew Herper (@matthewherper) February 7, 2021

I thought this was good at explaining the likely outcome re vaccines and why we shouldn’t panic over these variants.

It’s a small study so the efficacy estimate is very imprecise ie inconclusive. It’s also looking at mild and moderate outcomes only, not what we really care about. Good basic explanation of that herehttps://t.co/2jkdbk1S04

— Aaron Richterman, MD (@AaronRichterman) February 7, 2021

Right. That study doesn’t tell us not to worry. But it doesn’t particularly tell us to worry either.

On first glance, those numbers are startling, and they suggest that the B.1.351 variant rendered the otherwise effective vaccine nearly useless. But, with a closer look, those numbers are almost uninterpretable. The trial was just too small to produce statistically solid results. Thus, each efficacy calculation has huge confidence intervals. For instance, the vaccine’s ending efficacy of 22 percent—based on a total of 42 coronavirus infections in the trial—had a plausible estimate range of between -50 percent effective and 60 percent effective.

Thrilled to learn my folks will get their first shots this week.

I've been feeling pretty negative lately long-term--that these variants are going to bring everything to a halt again in two months--but that NYT piece just above is fairly encouraging.

15m people in front of me in the uk queue, but that's down from 17m last week

I've been feeling pretty negative lately long-term--that these variants are going to bring everything to a halt again in two months--but that NYT piece just above is fairly encouraging.

Yeah, although (take a deep breath) I'm still predicting lockdown ease in a couple of months followed by cases surge again resulting in another lockdown but probably not as serious as previous ones and I'm sure we're seeing a dillution in serious infections now due to vaccines, but still life being disrupted in some way for the rest of the year maybe. (uk perspective)

15m people in front of me in the uk queue, but that's down from 17m last week

― koogs, Tuesday, 9 February 2021 09:41 (forty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

that's a lot of politely shuffling forward

My folks got their first shot on Saturday. Woo!

it doesn't even require variants to bring everything to a halt again. everything should be at a halt already. governments keep opening shit up when infections are higher than previously required lockdown.

I feel like opening indoor seating at restaurants in Chicago, for up to groups of 10(!) is going to put us back in a terrible position by late March.

You feel that about everything

Despite my admittedly over the top fretting about the vaccine roll-out, I think it's valid to think we aren't ready to be seating groups of 10 in restaurants yet. I don't think that's ridiculous to think, but I guess it's easier to just shit on me in multiple threads.

Serves me right for not finishing that sentence. Indoor dining is a stupid idea, yes.

Pretty sure I only eyerolled at you in this one.

Just came from having my part one - apparently I’m in a priority group because I had cancer as a child?

💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻

just found out my folks are finally in line to get their first shots tomorrow, huge relief on my psyche

great news Ned, Alfred, suzy, and dan! glad to hear more ilxors and/or ilxor family members getting shots.

(thank god I caught the typo before I sent that)

"Thanks, but they prefer pants to shorts."

my folks (mom and stepdad + dad) have all at least gotten their first shots and are scheduled for their second next week. it's pretty cool

woohoo!!!

USA rolling 7-day average deaths per day dropped under 3,000 for the first time since January 8th (32 days ago):

https://i.imgur.com/2Ym5n3G.png

3,265 people died today, which is... staggering.

USA should pass 500k deaths ~Feb 17th. Half of USA COVID deaths occurred in the past three months between Nov 17 - Feb 17.

Good long read on the school dilemma.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/magazine/school-reopenings-rhode-island.html

Yeah, this quagmire becomes less psychically burdensome as the people in my life are getting their jabs. My mom and my gf's parents have all had their first, and we each have a brother in the medical field who's received both.

An open letter was published in Le Monde today calling on governments to stand against the protection of strong intellectual patent laws for the Covid vaccines, as they should be viewed as global public goods.

An English version can be found here.

I agree with that, but I’d go (not that much) further and say every drug is a global public good and none should have patent protection

^^^^

otm.

combine that with full public funding of drug research and I'd be 100% in favor. Also think it would lead to more efficiency in targeting of research toward the most serious and needed areas. Could still allow private companies to deal with more discretionary/lower risk issues.

no private companies would do research without gaining a patent and profit motivation, is the argument that always gets made

BREAKING: World Health Organisation (WHO) has recommended Oxford vaccine for over-65s.

— sarahknapton (@sarahknapton) February 10, 2021

agree with others here that it's not just for the rona that we need to end drug patents, but this would be a start.

no private companies would do research without gaining a patent and profit motivation, is the argument that always gets made

― Nhex, Wednesday, February 10, 2021 11:18 AM (thirty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean, this is probably true, which is why I said public funding of research. The flipside of the profit motive is that lots of wasteful research gets done, e.g. the development of drugs that are only slight variations on the drug whose patent is about to expire.

There are these things called the NIH and CDC and whatnot

moderna was paid for up front with public money. can’t wait to hear a pharma rep explain why this was actually bad and has led to bad outcomes

Some good news

GOOD NEWS ALERT: Some tentative evidence in the data that the UK #COVID19 vaccination programme is working.
Case fatality rate for over 80s is down over 30% since early Jan.
CFR for under-80s by contrast down 8%
Based on research from @danielhowdon et al.
More on @skynews tonight pic.twitter.com/1736WQbEEZ

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) February 10, 2021

nice.

I wrote about the kafkaesque experience of navigating grief during a global pandemic for @LRB https://t.co/PFpm9gJfzP

— No-One (@judeinlondon2) February 11, 2021

This sounds promising: https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-drug-substantially-alleviates-serious-193541719.html

The drug, Allocetra, treats the extreme overreaction of the body's immune system seen in some severe coronavirus patients, which can sometimes lead to organ failure and death. The phenomenon is known as a "cytokine" storm.

Yes. This is good. The "cytokine" storm phenomenon happens with more diseases than covid-19, but sadly the article doesn't address whether this drug is specific to covid-19 or able to treat patients suffering a "cytokine" storm prompted by other pathogens.

couple of my friends got into the Novovax trial tht started here today, my bro just missed out :(

2 of 3 get the real vaccine, with an opportunity to get later for the other 1/3rd.

interested in that one as they're the one where they think it might actually prevent transmission.