Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

we gonna die

apocalypse homie laid out his theory today:

-oil hits $200/barrel by the end of the year
-energy prices go up and summer 09 is another long hot summer inna 68 stylee
-o gets got, riots
-old ppl dieoff in the northeast as energy gets too expensive to handle extremes of summer & winter
-us economy tailspins, rest of world follows
-http://images.amazon.com/images/P/6305075379.01._SCLZZZZZZZ_.jpg

Hoosteen did you forget you started this
"Is It Thunderdome Yet?" A Rolling Looming Apocalypse Thread

no sir just thought given crackpot homie used some numbers it might loosely fit in here but i forget this is interesting egghead thread not hoos paranoia jpeg thread carry on apologia

it was the use of the mad max graphic that betrayed your true intentions

yr apocahomie has concatenated two unrelated but plausible events in $200 barrel oil and obama getting offed. but while a few americans might riot, the vast majority would bury the dead, grit their teeth, put their heads down and pull their yokes even harder. no mad max to be found in that scenario.

we're talking literal yokes

Oxen - The Next Big Investment Opportunity?

hot damn, you know what always outperforms in an apocalyptic post-empire economy? indie fucking rock, I'm gonna be rich

As long as you're getting paid in Canadian dollars and Euros, eh.

need to call my manager about promoting in "emerging markets"

I'll eat rats before I'll tour Europe again

or perhaps just set myself up as an expert in building tiger economy fanbases

oh smack Tom you wanna talk turkey you know how to find me

you'll eat rats and you'll like it

building tiger economies (by strategy)

stockpiling Gulden's for when push comes to shove on this rats question

Get a little Bollywood cameo and you'll be set to blow up in India.

India is already halfway to an oxen-based economy already! Lucky fuckers.

can oxen be used as an alternative to oil

There's a fortune to be made in the dung alone!

it's time to consider all the options

Whale oil is a fuel from another age

the future!!!

i've been reading nothing but economics books lately (the soros book on the credit crisis isn't bad, amateur philosophizing aside), and this firedoglake piece feels so otm to me it's scary: http://firedoglake.com/2008/06/24/a-bright-shining-depression/

that article is fairly interesting until you get to

But what really needs to be done, which is to bring insolvent firms under government stewardship and either wind them down or reinflate them, goes against everything the past thirty years has stood for. It's just not the sort of thing neoliberals and neoconservatives, with their touchingly childlike faith in "free" markets, believe in, understand or can even seriously consider.

and then you just go "oh right, firedoglake"

I mean they go from seemingly being critical of bernanke for eating bear stearns because in their world that somehow lets everybody else off the hook to saying in their conclusion that what really needs to be done is to do more or less exactly that with every company that isn't doing well. That's some sneaky communist bullshit.

link is fucked?

just google "shining depression"

I'm also kind of thinking a lot of the stuff about the Japanese economy since the bust is straight pulled out of his ass

you'll eat rats and you'll like it
ROFL.

All needed lubrication to operate at peak efficiency...these potions were often found lacking in keeping these delicate instruments humming
Jokes write themselves.

americans tend to not begrudge the rich
http://bp2.blogger.com/_gze8GjcR_fY/RkfSJ2LKyII/AAAAAAAABeo/J8PyHXXDNx0/s400/homeless2.jpg

Jeez, Stirling Newberry. Haven't seen that name in ages.

This gave me the vertigo:

http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/RealDow.gif

Clinton was more Reagan than Reagan ... which makes you think, how is anything going to get better? Even my grandfather, a life long Republican, thinks things have gotten out of hand and there needs to be a progressive party, though in his opinion one that doesn't belong to the traditional socialist-liberal tradition.

Long & occasionally dry but fascinating interview with the co-heads of equity strategy at Societe Generale:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/053008_Welling_Edwards-Montier_REPRINT.pdf

(hat tip to Big Picture)

Brief summary is that they basically think we are at the start of a multi-year recession & equity bear market. The chart of the slow-motion post-1929 crash with attendant pollyanna optimisim at each technical bounce on the way down is worth the price of admission.

WE GONNA DIE

The depression will be liveblogged

Well Hurting, hopefully the economy is OK by the time we graduate law school :{

wow, those societe generale dudes are challops kings. they must be making a killing by being so right about everything.

the challops kings play songs of slump

I read that SG interview and yeah those dudes are mean
I'm pretty sure we are all going to die though

though I was glad to hear their version on why there's like 17 supertankers full of crude just sitting in the gulf. I speculated (lol) they might be just waiting for the right price on contract, because of institutional investors taking wacky long positions on oil waiting for the $200 barrel, and nobody's coughing that up yet

I read on another website that the reason for those tankers sitting in the Gulf was that they are carrying a type of heavy crude which is not usable in most US refineries, so there's less demand for it.

i kind of want to see the wsj article they mentioned, but i haven't been able to find it on their site

well why would that be news? that would seem to imply there's usually 17 supertankers full of nasty tar sitting in the gulf.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=avZ1WowlgKck&refer=energy

The "heavy crude" theory:

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080523203326AAGQJh8

This is saying it's Saudi Arabia's oil though - whereas the Bloomberg story is about Iraqi oil which is being temporarily stored in tankers while they do some refinery maintenance.

Sorry, it's Iranian oil not Iraqi.

Another Bloomberg story which supports the heavy Iranian oil explanation:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=akLt5fJKQNr8

okay I'll buy that, actually. Refineries being the bottleneck seems like the simplest explanation

WE GONNA DIE

link?