outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

When I was considering Columbia for undergrad, a lot of people told me I’d have a lot of trouble registering for courses because it’s chronically ill run, and that was part of why I didn’t go. Some of those people went to Columbia, but they were pretty blasé about it.

― horseshoe, Thursday, February 25, 2021 8:51 PM (thirteen minutes ago

Having PTSD flashbacks to phone court registration at my large state u.

Phone course registration.

just dropping in to tell horseshoe how much I appreciate her ranting ITT

Having PTSD flashbacks to phone court registration at my large state u.

Phone registration would have been an improvement! When I started college, we had to go stand in the armory for hours on end in various lines to try to get into different courses. It was bonkers and so stressful.

Pfizer expects to *double* it's weekly US production and deliver 120 million doses just in the next 6 weeks. We have 600 million mRNA doses scheduled by end of July. J&J VRBPAC meeting today. Things can go wrong, but it's time to talk about and act on *new* challenges we'll face.

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 26, 2021

there keeps being promising news but doses/week in my county has been flat for like four weeks and it's making me feel crazy to look at the graph

We’re supply constrained. That’s going to change very soon. It takes four months to make a batch and the vaccines were approved 3 months ago. Huge production volume coming online next month.

That said, stay frosty

CDC WARNING: Drop in Covid cases "may be stalling," @CDCDirector Walensky says. Daily infections have gone up for the past 3 days compared to last week.

"We at CDC consider this a very concerning shift in the trajectory . . . Things are tenuous. Now is not the time to relax."

— Sheryl Gay Stolberg (@SherylNYT) February 26, 2021

just dropping in to tell horseshoe how much I appreciate her ranting ITT

― I like signing up to dead sites (sleeve), Friday, February 26, 2021 10:47 AM (fifty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

lol don't encourage me! but also, thank you!

Nearly 60% of people 75+ have now received at least one shot -- that was 14% 6 weeks ago

there's gonna be severe cultural whiplash in cities everywhere. children killed because they're too close to a strange guy who freaks out after a year in quarantine. full-on bacchanals in public spaces. it's gonna be complicated and weird and that in small part is why people in their 20s and 30s who approach this with "i'll get it whenever" confuse the hell outta me. That's where the numbers are gonna skyrocket next!

The Hague may be more interested in Americans as a whole for hogging global vaccine supply.

and for prosecuting Blind Melon fans

people in their 20s and 30s who approach this with "i'll get it whenever" confuse the hell outta me.

Why does this confuse you when the messaging has been explicitly that these people should not expect to get the vaccine any time soon while we catch up with the older/more vulnerable populations?

Euler: that companies aren't offering how-to on making these vaccines publicly available where governments can produce their own supply is the prosecutable sin imo. america being a glutton, while not worth forgetting is more dog bites man.

jon: as noted in the above tweet, we need to prepare to change the priorities and rules quickly and get ready to start changing that messaging now! I think the "people under 60 can wait" message is analogous to the "the public doesn't need masks" bullshit from the start of this shitshow, smokescreen so people don't riot in the streets. If we're actually going to hit a point in the next month or two where the qualification to get a vaccine is "I want one" the nation needs to start a media tour saying so and start focusing on convincing people they DO want them.

oh forks, I absolutely agree with you! I was just saying I can understand why people might be taking that approach, based on the faulty messaging we've been seeing. I mean, hell, our mayor's weekly updates don't come out and say it explicitly, but the subtext is very much, "if you aren't over 65, just be quiet and wait your turn, we'll tell you when that happens, but don't expect it soon".

right, so the next problem looks to be that demographic is gonna shrug it off as "too early" when it's time to vaccinate and there's gonna be a different sort of preventable outbreak. It's predictable and preventable is what I'm saying and, without fucking trump in office, it might be actionable!

Absolutely, not trying to disagree with you at all! I hope we can clear up this messaging soon, esp when it comes to all the good news about supply!

as a nation, we've had FAKE NEWS as a concept and a practice crammed down our throats so long and so hard that we need some seismic shift to start to broadly put faith in the press again; i am holding out hope that this is what'll do it. "i'm alive because i read about it in the Chicago Sun Times" is a hell of a testimonial.

of course, if the variants somehow become ultrasuperflu and vaccinated people start dying or bill gates' microchip start to make us all crave zunes, it's gonna be time to barricade up the compound. but let's not think that way.

as a separate aside, once the US does fully inoculate its population to the point where we can't talk needles into any more arms, we could have an incredible opportunity with actual political and cultural will behind it to start creating a peace corps style department to inoculate other countries and attempt to regain some scintilla of moral high ground on the international stage

^^ that would be fantastic.

But I'm also mentally preparing myself for them to cut all funding for further virus studies by about, oh, 2023, once this fades into the rearview mirror.

that's certainly the historical precedent. i gotta hope somebody with lobbying clout will recognize that pepsico is also hurt by a mass pandemic and decides now is a good time to get in front of this.

Re:cases increasing for three days, isn't a lot of that likely due to delayed data from Texas/other states impacted by winter storm? There was at least one mention on the Coronavirus Infection Count last week suggesting that officials in TX outright stated their numbers would be artificially low for a few days

I'd be interested also as to whether one age demographic was driving the increase

77% now in the “definitely” or “wait and see” groups is great. Hopefully the 7% “only if required” group can still be worked on. ~85% uptake seems about the best we can hope for and would almost certainly get life back to normal. https://t.co/wT2fy9irQs

— Ed MD (@notdred) February 26, 2021

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/02/26/covid-cases-nursing-homes-plummet-89-residents-vaccinate/6814027002/

remembering now that the CIA tried to get into bin laden’s compound in pakistan by falsely claiming to be registering residents for a vaccine programme...

Many data-watchers are understandably concerned about the recent uptick in national reported cases. A closer look at the national figures shows simultaneous wobbles in tests, cases, and deaths—a clue that this is likely a reporting issue, not a turnaround. pic.twitter.com/KymsyWAz1F

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) February 27, 2021

that is about what I figured.

hospitalization drop chart is inspiring

Have any of the politicians who have been actively spreading disinformation on COVID been forced to speak, publicly, with one of the families who suffered because of it? Has anyone EVER seen this? Was it on a radio show? TV, or another situation?

It strikes me that Ted Cruz probably wouldn't make jokes about how dumb masks were, if he were speaking to a group of COVID victims. But he can at CPAC. But even at CPAC, i don't think he'd make a joke about cancer, a heart attack, diabetes, just about anything. That would be received poorly. But COVID? that is a funny thing to joke about, like it was a stand-up routine.

Shouldn't he, or anyone powerful person that has promoted this shit and made an awful situation somehow even WORSE, be forced to confront a real life person? i imagine things starting off with cruz expressing his consolation about my dad (who is alive, barely, on ECMO), and then i might say "why?", and he says "....i said i'm sorry to hear about your father", i say "why?", he's confused, and then i say "why are you sorry? you mocked masks at CPAC and got applauded for it. So why would you be sorry about my dad?", and it seems like right THERE is where the politician gets into their car or a door closes on the real life person. what i'm looking for is a situation where ted cruz actually has to make a response and keep talking with the real person he hurt.

has ANYONE ever seen anything like this?

Okay!

Breaking News: The FDA authorized Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine, the first that requires only a single shot. Distribution is expected to begin soon. https://t.co/d8P6Jfi3sM

— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 27, 2021

http://cdn-webimages.wimages.net/051a61f436762d913069f2fe0b702997159e2d.jpg?v=3

the marshall mathers vaccine

I’m hoping to collect all the vaccines like Pokémon Go with needles.

karl, i haven't seen anything like that. i think what you're doing is great, and i'm sorry for the circumstances that mean you have to do it. if you feel motivated, i would try to figure out what committees ted cruz is on, find out if either of your senators are also on those committees, and write to those senators asking if they'd be interested in your evidence next time it would be on topic. i think this page it not up to date, but worth a try? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Cruz#Current

US content:

2.5m doses of the vaccine delivered today. huge manufacturing volume of pfizer/moderna coming next month, and single dose J&J will be producing at scale in a couple of months.

so here's a worst case, back of the envelope calculation for when healthy non-old US adults will have access to the vaccine:

325m americans, 75% of them over 18, and 75% of them will choose to get vaccinated, and assuming no J&J, i.e. two doses per person = 365m doses required.

at 2.5m/day, that's 150 days (5 months) until everyone who wants it has it.

but 2.5m/day is probably a lower limit going forward, and J&J means the average number of doses per person will be below 2. so i think 5 months is a worst case scenario tbh.

and purely selfishly, if you're the kind of person who has time to post on ILX, you're probably the kind of person who can figure out how to navigate the shitty websites and signup procedures and word of mouth states and local governments are using to handle this.

so my best guess is we'll all know someone who is not any priority group who gets vaccinated in may.

xp thanks caek! I have already been leaving voicemails on my own representatives office lines (in addition to my many calls to Ted Cruz's intern, who I am going to win over). a friend of mine on the hill said she would see if she could track down any leads, but I didn't think about committees. this may be the ticket:

https://www.commerce.senate.gov/members

Ted Cruz
Tammy Baldwin

or https://www.judiciary.senate.gov

Ted Cruz
Dick Durbin

that committee is like murders row of assholes (hawley, graham, cotton, and the third-dumbest man in congress, john kennedy)

ok now some bad vaccine news:

https://www.ft.com/content/767fdd85-5329-479d-b565-4ec85d28b492

After battling with AstraZeneca over shipment delays, and even casting doubt over its Covid-19 jab’s efficacy, EU countries are seeing stocks of the company’s shots pile up — unused.

As of Friday, France had administered 16 per cent of the 1.1m doses of the two-injection vaccine it received since the first delivery in early February, according to health ministry data. As of Thursday, Germany had given a little over one-fifth of the 1.45 million doses, about the same proportion as Italy, which has received over 1m doses. Spain has used just under a third of a total of 808,000 doses as of Friday.

The situation has prompted several European leaders to talk up the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in recent days, with one French health ministry official even calling for a “collective rehabilitation campaign” to improve its reputation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/28/what-can-we-learn-from-africa-experience-of-covid-death-toll-paradox

Good-ush report on how Africa are coping with covid.

30-40% of the pop to be vaccinated by end of year is not good.

In the US, as states open up eligibility, a quality like BMI-determined "obesity" represents a huge proportion of the population! (Because BMI is a terrible measure.) I'm technically eligible! I'm actually holding off bc I'm not at my home address right now, and also because in a historically Black neighborhood with lots of elders, it seems shitty to do anything except try to help other ppl get those spots.

Near where I'm living now, we got 22 empty appointments filled up with eligible seniors with about 2 days' notice! Feels good.

The county’s vaccine program seems to have stalled out hard right as the governor is talking about blocking mask mandates, so that’s cool.

Sry to link Gove Jr BUT

New Public Health England study shows Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccine are both “highly effective” in cutting hospitalisation and deaths over 80s.

JVT says the study suggests UK will be “in a very different world” in a couple of months.https://t.co/JIj6E9ZHuJ

— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) March 1, 2021

the bad vaccine is good folks

Anything that increases immunity in the general population at minimal risk to health and well being is good. Before Pfizer ran its trials health authorities were stating they were willing to approve any covid-19 vaccine with above a 50% effectiveness.

still rather have one of the big 2 than J&J tho

From Novavax just now: they expect EUA in May and will have made 100M doses at that time. Wow. https://t.co/dkERSObaUZ

— Ed MD (@notdred) March 1, 2021

my worst case scenario for "every adult who wants the vaccine can get it, assuming they can spare the time off work and have transport" is still august (i.e. 5 months), but my best case scenario is june and falling tbqfh.

i think at least one or two states (alaska, WV, etc.) will switch to this statewide during march:

18 & healthy? Want the vaccine? No problem. This Arizona county gives the shot to any adult resident who walks into a clinic and asks for it

My story from Gila County, Arizona:https://t.co/D7xV0R0ud7

— Simon Romero (@viaSimonRomero) March 1, 2021

DeSantis expanded eligibility in FL to include certain careers like firefighters and teachers....but said only for people in these positions over age 50.

are there really not enough supply to where continuing to ration by age is necessary even when expanding who can get it? legit question.