outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

I’m hoping to collect all the vaccines like Pokémon Go with needles.

karl, i haven't seen anything like that. i think what you're doing is great, and i'm sorry for the circumstances that mean you have to do it. if you feel motivated, i would try to figure out what committees ted cruz is on, find out if either of your senators are also on those committees, and write to those senators asking if they'd be interested in your evidence next time it would be on topic. i think this page it not up to date, but worth a try? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Cruz#Current

US content:

2.5m doses of the vaccine delivered today. huge manufacturing volume of pfizer/moderna coming next month, and single dose J&J will be producing at scale in a couple of months.

so here's a worst case, back of the envelope calculation for when healthy non-old US adults will have access to the vaccine:

325m americans, 75% of them over 18, and 75% of them will choose to get vaccinated, and assuming no J&J, i.e. two doses per person = 365m doses required.

at 2.5m/day, that's 150 days (5 months) until everyone who wants it has it.

but 2.5m/day is probably a lower limit going forward, and J&J means the average number of doses per person will be below 2. so i think 5 months is a worst case scenario tbh.

and purely selfishly, if you're the kind of person who has time to post on ILX, you're probably the kind of person who can figure out how to navigate the shitty websites and signup procedures and word of mouth states and local governments are using to handle this.

so my best guess is we'll all know someone who is not any priority group who gets vaccinated in may.

xp thanks caek! I have already been leaving voicemails on my own representatives office lines (in addition to my many calls to Ted Cruz's intern, who I am going to win over). a friend of mine on the hill said she would see if she could track down any leads, but I didn't think about committees. this may be the ticket:

https://www.commerce.senate.gov/members

Ted Cruz
Tammy Baldwin

or https://www.judiciary.senate.gov

Ted Cruz
Dick Durbin

that committee is like murders row of assholes (hawley, graham, cotton, and the third-dumbest man in congress, john kennedy)

ok now some bad vaccine news:

https://www.ft.com/content/767fdd85-5329-479d-b565-4ec85d28b492

After battling with AstraZeneca over shipment delays, and even casting doubt over its Covid-19 jab’s efficacy, EU countries are seeing stocks of the company’s shots pile up — unused.

As of Friday, France had administered 16 per cent of the 1.1m doses of the two-injection vaccine it received since the first delivery in early February, according to health ministry data. As of Thursday, Germany had given a little over one-fifth of the 1.45 million doses, about the same proportion as Italy, which has received over 1m doses. Spain has used just under a third of a total of 808,000 doses as of Friday.

The situation has prompted several European leaders to talk up the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in recent days, with one French health ministry official even calling for a “collective rehabilitation campaign” to improve its reputation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/28/what-can-we-learn-from-africa-experience-of-covid-death-toll-paradox

Good-ush report on how Africa are coping with covid.

30-40% of the pop to be vaccinated by end of year is not good.

In the US, as states open up eligibility, a quality like BMI-determined "obesity" represents a huge proportion of the population! (Because BMI is a terrible measure.) I'm technically eligible! I'm actually holding off bc I'm not at my home address right now, and also because in a historically Black neighborhood with lots of elders, it seems shitty to do anything except try to help other ppl get those spots.

Near where I'm living now, we got 22 empty appointments filled up with eligible seniors with about 2 days' notice! Feels good.

The county’s vaccine program seems to have stalled out hard right as the governor is talking about blocking mask mandates, so that’s cool.

Sry to link Gove Jr BUT

New Public Health England study shows Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccine are both “highly effective” in cutting hospitalisation and deaths over 80s.

JVT says the study suggests UK will be “in a very different world” in a couple of months.https://t.co/JIj6E9ZHuJ

— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) March 1, 2021

the bad vaccine is good folks

Anything that increases immunity in the general population at minimal risk to health and well being is good. Before Pfizer ran its trials health authorities were stating they were willing to approve any covid-19 vaccine with above a 50% effectiveness.

still rather have one of the big 2 than J&J tho

From Novavax just now: they expect EUA in May and will have made 100M doses at that time. Wow. https://t.co/dkERSObaUZ

— Ed MD (@notdred) March 1, 2021

my worst case scenario for "every adult who wants the vaccine can get it, assuming they can spare the time off work and have transport" is still august (i.e. 5 months), but my best case scenario is june and falling tbqfh.

i think at least one or two states (alaska, WV, etc.) will switch to this statewide during march:

18 & healthy? Want the vaccine? No problem. This Arizona county gives the shot to any adult resident who walks into a clinic and asks for it

My story from Gila County, Arizona:https://t.co/D7xV0R0ud7

— Simon Romero (@viaSimonRomero) March 1, 2021

DeSantis expanded eligibility in FL to include certain careers like firefighters and teachers....but said only for people in these positions over age 50.

are there really not enough supply to where continuing to ration by age is necessary even when expanding who can get it? legit question.

you could make the case that there's not enough supply to just say "everyone over the age of X" right now, but there will be in literally days, and it's not at all obvious to me that having 600 tiers of eligibility being enforced by 8 levels of government is the best way to do it.

that's kind of my thinking, and I'm really hoping DeSantis doesn't make it restrictive to where people flee the state to get theirs (if that's even possible for them, FL only allows for residents)

are there really not enough supply to where continuing to ration by age is necessary

In Oregon, the rollout has been quite slow because of very limited vaccine supply here. That allocation is controlled by the feds and for whatever reason we are laggards. Oregonians aged 65 -69 only became eligible today. Yet, available vaccination appointments in the Portland area are so scarce that it may be six weeks or more until I can get a place in line.

Frustrations are running high, but it is impossible to administer doses that simply have not been shipped here, yet. It's not like there's a warehouse full of supply that's sitting untapped.

thanks, helpful to know what it's like on the ground regionally because I know it's not monolithic. thanks Aimless

oregon is not a laggard relative to the rest of the US.

it has given almost exactly the national average number of doses per capita (23ish), and it has used almost exactly the same fraction of its allocated supply as the rest of country (80ish %)

neither of these would be true if it had less supply than the rest of the country.

if you're eligible and you're having trouble even scheduling an appointment then i suspect those are local (portland) issues. and if local government is telling you it's a federal distribution problem then they're probably lying.

my (portland-area, I believe same burb as you, aimless) 70+ mom had trouble securing a vax appointment through any of the state’s websites but ultimately got a quick in and out one through (I think?) riteaid’s site and went in to get the jab yesterday with zero hassle. might try that, buddy!

if local government is telling you it's a federal distribution problem then they're probably lying.

well, we just did have a massive ice storm that caused about five days worth of appointments to be cancelled and vaccine shipments to be delayed. you may have missed that, what with the weather in TX grabbing the headlines.

but a big piece of the problem was placing the major burden of scheduling an appointment on the public, then only releasing a batch of appointment times twice a week, and using a centralized system that couldn't handle the traffic and crashed each time a new batch of times was released. as of today they have swapped in a lottery system, where you register, then they pull names, make a list and contact you.

we just did have a massive ice storm that caused about five days worth of appointments to be cancelled and vaccine shipments to be delayed. you may have missed that, what with the weather in TX grabbing the headlines.

I’m sensitive to the claim by local governments that the feds are the problem, because it was made where I live too, and it’s pretty obviously untrue, and has been untrue for weeks now. the problems are local and they would be fixed by the feds and state govt taking a bigger role.

fwiw I’ve talked to several doctors about the vax rollout in oregon and every single one of them has laid blame on the state for the shitty job being done

for at least a couple of decades the state government in oregon has been notoriously bad at anything that relies on computers.

IT delivery is hard everywhere, but it's particularly hard in the US because of federalism.

the countries that do it well centralize to an extreme degree (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Digital_Service). this concentrates the expertise and avoids duplication of effort. the US version of this is full of great people but is kind of a cargo cult in practice because they literally cannot work with state and local govt, which is where the action is.

here's an issue from a newsletter i read that shows someone getting increasingly enraged that hobbyists are forced to intervene https://vicki.substack.com/p/the-last-miles-and-miles-of-the-vaccine

the US version is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Digital_Service and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/18F (there are literally 2, which is one of the many ways in which they miss the point)

I’m surprised anyone kept working at 18F during the trump admin

always thought the name "18F" was a bit fash tbh

I have worked in that building. 18F is the intersection (18th and F streets). To me it sounds more cutesy than fashy, but whatev

AH doyousee?

serious question caek, do you have access to data about how much is actually being shipped to the states? you seem fairly confident about how much is being delivered, so I'm guessing you've seen some data.

asking not to challenge you, but we are also hearing our local leaders still blaming the federal distribution for shortages. and as happy as I am to call our current mayor a liar for many other reasons, it'd be nice to have some data to back up why he's lying.

% of supply used is on most vaccine trackers, e.g. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/. that was like 20% for most of january while the states built vaccination capacity. it peaked in some places a couple of weeks ago in the 90s because of the ice storm (e.g. dodger stadium closed at 98%). there have extenuating circumstances, but if your % of supply used isn't in the 90s then you don't get to blame anyone else IMO.

fwiw illinois is like oregon: extremely average. i gather the city of chicago is finding exciting ways to fuck up though.

So my parents are informed that they're not allowed to get vaxed because Chicago hasn't joined the rest of IL in allowing people with co-morbidities to get shots, and the rest of the state won't vax even eligible people with Chicago addresses. Are we *trying* to kill people?

— Sandy Johnston (@sandypsj) March 2, 2021

In related news, there will be a mass vaccination site at the UC, which will be run by the state and therefore follow the state's rules, not the city's, despite being in the city. And it won't open until 3/10. https://t.co/T84WKhIoD1

— Sandy Johnston (@sandypsj) March 2, 2021

if your lives haven't already been overwhelmed by panicked disinformation campaigns on tv, national and state and local politics, your good friends, and your closest family, prepare for it. hopefully it won't happen to you. but if it starts to - feet shoulders-width apart, bend your knees and stay loose, keep your glove on the ground, follow the ball. don't let it get past you. catch it, if you can, but if nothing else deflect it, lay down in front of it, anything.

NYT Editorial Board
Welcome to the new normal. Let’s see your immunity passport.

AFTER 9/11, the nation adjusted. We didn’t like it, but we got used to taking off our shoes and belts at the airport, because everyone’s safety was at stake. A new normal will come after the coronavirus pandemic, too, and we’ll adjust for the sake of our own health and our neighbors.

Even after a large swath of the U.S. population is vaccinated, the challenge of reducing viral transmission will remain, and so will the need to wear face masks, which like airport screening will be inconvenient but worthwhile. One open question is whether mandates to wear them will be necessary. Some social distancing will also be needed, and lockdowns to cope with fresh outbreaks, although hopefully not nearly as severe as over the past year.

In the new normal, the virus will not be eliminated. It likely will continue to circulate, mutating into new variants with different capabilities. This means vaccination may need to be regular, more like influenza than measles.

Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic

Diagnostic testing will become a routine part of everyday life. Perhaps home diagnostic tests will be as ubiquitous as the toothbrush. The test result may affect each individual’s choices about what to do at work, travel and play. But it also may become a necessary gateway to other venues, such as an office or movie theater. Some hard thinking must be applied to whether a negative test can or should be required.

The testing question goes to the heart of a larger debate just over the horizon: What does immunity, whether from a vaccine or previous sickness, entitle a person to do? The current vaccines appear to be highly effective in preventing serious disease outcomes, hospitalization and death. But it isn’t yet known whether a vaccinated person can transmit the virus. Nor is it clear precisely what immunity is conferred by previous illness, or for how long. Should there be a required certification, some kind of immunity passport? Would this lead to privacy questions, stigmatization or discrimination? While school districts have in the past successfully insisted that all students be inoculated for measles, will the principle apply to the coronavirus more generally? Can offices, transit and leisure venues limit access to those with an immunity passport?

The new normal will also mean a willingness to adapt to new science, getting used to shifts and new discoveries, such as the virus variants now circulating. It must include a recommitment to government public health agencies, long starved for resources. Building a national and global viral genomic surveillance system is a must. The impressive work done in research, development and manufacturing of vaccines should inspire more attempts to create rapid medical countermeasures.

The burden of loss of the past year is enormous. But after the pandemic can be a time of promise, with lessons learned, lives saved and restarted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/welcome-to-the-new-normal-lets-see-your-immunity-passport/2021/03/01/51da58e0-7862-11eb-9537-496158cc5fd9_story.html

my parents sold their condo in SC and were desperately fleeing back to home (in Illinois under evil Democratic leadership, but closer to family). the reason is that they were 100% convinced that the entire U.S. will soon ban interstate travel unless you have a vaccination card. they wanted to get home before they were permanently stuck. the condo sold the day my dad went to the hospital, a few weeks ago

and i told them that i was willing to promise that there would NOT be a interstate travel ban. and yeah, i don't there there will be, unless an entire state or region (the ozarks?) turn into a superspreader event. but it doesn't matter. there's a grain of truth in it - requiring vaccination cards to get into major public events is a very logical idea. there are lots of privacy concerns, and there will be a massive public argument about it. it will be polarized in the U.S., of course, and guess which side everyone will land on.

putting it in this thread because i have no idea how to talk about coronavirus without getting at least a LITTLE political. politics is a large part of the reason we are in this fucking mess now, a year later

Thanks caek. That twitter thread is weird though, because I'm not sure it's entirely accurate. I'm wondering if that was the line from an official City of Chicago vax site because, afaik, eligible people in Chicago aren't being prevented from signing up for appointments at Walgreens and the like. Now, how fast those appointments are filling up is another thing entirely.

It's so weird outside NYC. I think the city is doing better, because I keep getting emails about availability at mega-sites. In the Hudson Valley, some medical providers seem to get some does some weeks, and others don't. Last week a local clinic took hundreds of appts. This week they got zero doses.

The problem with that article that Karl posted is that it doesn't mention that taking off our shoes and belts at the airport is completely theatrical and a total waste of time and resources.

While I'm definitely a leftist crank of a certain type, I don't think it's too far to say that the government will use ANY excuse to further surveil and punish its citizens, and we know what the result of such surveillance and punishment has been in the past.

There are already ways for sensors to be placed in pills, transmitting the fact that a patient has taken a dose for a day. Seems like not a totally paranoid fantasy that the govt could do the same with vaccines and use such sensors to track our every move in the name of "public health."

IO, I just read our county has the second lowest vaccination rate out of all the counties in NYS. I WONDER WHY???

This all just goes to show that even though vaccines are increasing and on a good pace, the communication and messaging around them remains fucking awful in most places. It doesn't need to be this hard and confusing.

i basically take most of the info caek drops in here and cascade it to my FB friends to try and cut through the noise.

The subtext I've taken from Chicago and some of the ring suburbs so far is that they really, really, really want to prevent line jumping and are perfectly willing to slow down the entire process to make sure no one sneaks in early. I can get why people are so frustrated.

ty -- yikes!! I can't decide if I think it's the ultra orthodox of one faith or the ultra white nationalists of another. Por que no los dos!

I mainly think it’s because it’s very difficult to find out who is providing vaccines and how to get them. I have no idea where the non senior eligible people can sign up for one!

What would be the purpose of a vaccine passport given that the main people at risk would be the people who aren't vaccinated? I mean I know that there are populations who have some genuine health reason or other they can't get the vaccine, but these are not huge numbers of people afaict.