outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

you could make the case that there's not enough supply to just say "everyone over the age of X" right now, but there will be in literally days, and it's not at all obvious to me that having 600 tiers of eligibility being enforced by 8 levels of government is the best way to do it.

that's kind of my thinking, and I'm really hoping DeSantis doesn't make it restrictive to where people flee the state to get theirs (if that's even possible for them, FL only allows for residents)

are there really not enough supply to where continuing to ration by age is necessary

In Oregon, the rollout has been quite slow because of very limited vaccine supply here. That allocation is controlled by the feds and for whatever reason we are laggards. Oregonians aged 65 -69 only became eligible today. Yet, available vaccination appointments in the Portland area are so scarce that it may be six weeks or more until I can get a place in line.

Frustrations are running high, but it is impossible to administer doses that simply have not been shipped here, yet. It's not like there's a warehouse full of supply that's sitting untapped.

thanks, helpful to know what it's like on the ground regionally because I know it's not monolithic. thanks Aimless

oregon is not a laggard relative to the rest of the US.

it has given almost exactly the national average number of doses per capita (23ish), and it has used almost exactly the same fraction of its allocated supply as the rest of country (80ish %)

neither of these would be true if it had less supply than the rest of the country.

if you're eligible and you're having trouble even scheduling an appointment then i suspect those are local (portland) issues. and if local government is telling you it's a federal distribution problem then they're probably lying.

my (portland-area, I believe same burb as you, aimless) 70+ mom had trouble securing a vax appointment through any of the state’s websites but ultimately got a quick in and out one through (I think?) riteaid’s site and went in to get the jab yesterday with zero hassle. might try that, buddy!

if local government is telling you it's a federal distribution problem then they're probably lying.

well, we just did have a massive ice storm that caused about five days worth of appointments to be cancelled and vaccine shipments to be delayed. you may have missed that, what with the weather in TX grabbing the headlines.

but a big piece of the problem was placing the major burden of scheduling an appointment on the public, then only releasing a batch of appointment times twice a week, and using a centralized system that couldn't handle the traffic and crashed each time a new batch of times was released. as of today they have swapped in a lottery system, where you register, then they pull names, make a list and contact you.

we just did have a massive ice storm that caused about five days worth of appointments to be cancelled and vaccine shipments to be delayed. you may have missed that, what with the weather in TX grabbing the headlines.

I’m sensitive to the claim by local governments that the feds are the problem, because it was made where I live too, and it’s pretty obviously untrue, and has been untrue for weeks now. the problems are local and they would be fixed by the feds and state govt taking a bigger role.

fwiw I’ve talked to several doctors about the vax rollout in oregon and every single one of them has laid blame on the state for the shitty job being done

for at least a couple of decades the state government in oregon has been notoriously bad at anything that relies on computers.

IT delivery is hard everywhere, but it's particularly hard in the US because of federalism.

the countries that do it well centralize to an extreme degree (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Digital_Service). this concentrates the expertise and avoids duplication of effort. the US version of this is full of great people but is kind of a cargo cult in practice because they literally cannot work with state and local govt, which is where the action is.

here's an issue from a newsletter i read that shows someone getting increasingly enraged that hobbyists are forced to intervene https://vicki.substack.com/p/the-last-miles-and-miles-of-the-vaccine

the US version is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Digital_Service and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/18F (there are literally 2, which is one of the many ways in which they miss the point)

I’m surprised anyone kept working at 18F during the trump admin

always thought the name "18F" was a bit fash tbh

I have worked in that building. 18F is the intersection (18th and F streets). To me it sounds more cutesy than fashy, but whatev

AH doyousee?

serious question caek, do you have access to data about how much is actually being shipped to the states? you seem fairly confident about how much is being delivered, so I'm guessing you've seen some data.

asking not to challenge you, but we are also hearing our local leaders still blaming the federal distribution for shortages. and as happy as I am to call our current mayor a liar for many other reasons, it'd be nice to have some data to back up why he's lying.

% of supply used is on most vaccine trackers, e.g. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/. that was like 20% for most of january while the states built vaccination capacity. it peaked in some places a couple of weeks ago in the 90s because of the ice storm (e.g. dodger stadium closed at 98%). there have extenuating circumstances, but if your % of supply used isn't in the 90s then you don't get to blame anyone else IMO.

fwiw illinois is like oregon: extremely average. i gather the city of chicago is finding exciting ways to fuck up though.

So my parents are informed that they're not allowed to get vaxed because Chicago hasn't joined the rest of IL in allowing people with co-morbidities to get shots, and the rest of the state won't vax even eligible people with Chicago addresses. Are we *trying* to kill people?

— Sandy Johnston (@sandypsj) March 2, 2021

In related news, there will be a mass vaccination site at the UC, which will be run by the state and therefore follow the state's rules, not the city's, despite being in the city. And it won't open until 3/10. https://t.co/T84WKhIoD1

— Sandy Johnston (@sandypsj) March 2, 2021

if your lives haven't already been overwhelmed by panicked disinformation campaigns on tv, national and state and local politics, your good friends, and your closest family, prepare for it. hopefully it won't happen to you. but if it starts to - feet shoulders-width apart, bend your knees and stay loose, keep your glove on the ground, follow the ball. don't let it get past you. catch it, if you can, but if nothing else deflect it, lay down in front of it, anything.

NYT Editorial Board
Welcome to the new normal. Let’s see your immunity passport.

AFTER 9/11, the nation adjusted. We didn’t like it, but we got used to taking off our shoes and belts at the airport, because everyone’s safety was at stake. A new normal will come after the coronavirus pandemic, too, and we’ll adjust for the sake of our own health and our neighbors.

Even after a large swath of the U.S. population is vaccinated, the challenge of reducing viral transmission will remain, and so will the need to wear face masks, which like airport screening will be inconvenient but worthwhile. One open question is whether mandates to wear them will be necessary. Some social distancing will also be needed, and lockdowns to cope with fresh outbreaks, although hopefully not nearly as severe as over the past year.

In the new normal, the virus will not be eliminated. It likely will continue to circulate, mutating into new variants with different capabilities. This means vaccination may need to be regular, more like influenza than measles.

Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic

Diagnostic testing will become a routine part of everyday life. Perhaps home diagnostic tests will be as ubiquitous as the toothbrush. The test result may affect each individual’s choices about what to do at work, travel and play. But it also may become a necessary gateway to other venues, such as an office or movie theater. Some hard thinking must be applied to whether a negative test can or should be required.

The testing question goes to the heart of a larger debate just over the horizon: What does immunity, whether from a vaccine or previous sickness, entitle a person to do? The current vaccines appear to be highly effective in preventing serious disease outcomes, hospitalization and death. But it isn’t yet known whether a vaccinated person can transmit the virus. Nor is it clear precisely what immunity is conferred by previous illness, or for how long. Should there be a required certification, some kind of immunity passport? Would this lead to privacy questions, stigmatization or discrimination? While school districts have in the past successfully insisted that all students be inoculated for measles, will the principle apply to the coronavirus more generally? Can offices, transit and leisure venues limit access to those with an immunity passport?

The new normal will also mean a willingness to adapt to new science, getting used to shifts and new discoveries, such as the virus variants now circulating. It must include a recommitment to government public health agencies, long starved for resources. Building a national and global viral genomic surveillance system is a must. The impressive work done in research, development and manufacturing of vaccines should inspire more attempts to create rapid medical countermeasures.

The burden of loss of the past year is enormous. But after the pandemic can be a time of promise, with lessons learned, lives saved and restarted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/welcome-to-the-new-normal-lets-see-your-immunity-passport/2021/03/01/51da58e0-7862-11eb-9537-496158cc5fd9_story.html

my parents sold their condo in SC and were desperately fleeing back to home (in Illinois under evil Democratic leadership, but closer to family). the reason is that they were 100% convinced that the entire U.S. will soon ban interstate travel unless you have a vaccination card. they wanted to get home before they were permanently stuck. the condo sold the day my dad went to the hospital, a few weeks ago

and i told them that i was willing to promise that there would NOT be a interstate travel ban. and yeah, i don't there there will be, unless an entire state or region (the ozarks?) turn into a superspreader event. but it doesn't matter. there's a grain of truth in it - requiring vaccination cards to get into major public events is a very logical idea. there are lots of privacy concerns, and there will be a massive public argument about it. it will be polarized in the U.S., of course, and guess which side everyone will land on.

putting it in this thread because i have no idea how to talk about coronavirus without getting at least a LITTLE political. politics is a large part of the reason we are in this fucking mess now, a year later

Thanks caek. That twitter thread is weird though, because I'm not sure it's entirely accurate. I'm wondering if that was the line from an official City of Chicago vax site because, afaik, eligible people in Chicago aren't being prevented from signing up for appointments at Walgreens and the like. Now, how fast those appointments are filling up is another thing entirely.

It's so weird outside NYC. I think the city is doing better, because I keep getting emails about availability at mega-sites. In the Hudson Valley, some medical providers seem to get some does some weeks, and others don't. Last week a local clinic took hundreds of appts. This week they got zero doses.

The problem with that article that Karl posted is that it doesn't mention that taking off our shoes and belts at the airport is completely theatrical and a total waste of time and resources.

While I'm definitely a leftist crank of a certain type, I don't think it's too far to say that the government will use ANY excuse to further surveil and punish its citizens, and we know what the result of such surveillance and punishment has been in the past.

There are already ways for sensors to be placed in pills, transmitting the fact that a patient has taken a dose for a day. Seems like not a totally paranoid fantasy that the govt could do the same with vaccines and use such sensors to track our every move in the name of "public health."

IO, I just read our county has the second lowest vaccination rate out of all the counties in NYS. I WONDER WHY???

This all just goes to show that even though vaccines are increasing and on a good pace, the communication and messaging around them remains fucking awful in most places. It doesn't need to be this hard and confusing.

i basically take most of the info caek drops in here and cascade it to my FB friends to try and cut through the noise.

The subtext I've taken from Chicago and some of the ring suburbs so far is that they really, really, really want to prevent line jumping and are perfectly willing to slow down the entire process to make sure no one sneaks in early. I can get why people are so frustrated.

ty -- yikes!! I can't decide if I think it's the ultra orthodox of one faith or the ultra white nationalists of another. Por que no los dos!

I mainly think it’s because it’s very difficult to find out who is providing vaccines and how to get them. I have no idea where the non senior eligible people can sign up for one!

What would be the purpose of a vaccine passport given that the main people at risk would be the people who aren't vaccinated? I mean I know that there are populations who have some genuine health reason or other they can't get the vaccine, but these are not huge numbers of people afaict.

also: what table said. Just because something became a new normal does not make it good. Removing belt and shoes is likely nonsensical from an actual security perspective. Err on the side of not giving in to wide, sweeping new surveillance powers imo, especially weighed against the already reduced risk that will remain when most people are vaccinated.

I'm open to being convinced otherwise, but the whole idea of a "vaccination ID" in order to participate in society/life seems like a terrible idea. It leads straight to a multi-tiered society that can never NOT be discriminatory because we can't be bothered to serve the health needs of marginalized people even when they're DYING, much less when a system we created just makes them invisible and pushes them further to the margins.

i don't disagree with any of this, but many (most?) public school districts require children to provide proof of vaccination. that seems to hurt/annoy a relatively small number of cranks, and may actually improve health delivery in poorer communities (in addition to the nominal benefit of avoiding measles outbreaks in school).

i assume there are studies that show whether vaccination requirements in schools have improved general healthcare access/delivery. i shouldn't speculate.

Are there any vaccines approved for children yet?

xp We have requirements for kids in schools, but we don't require adults to show the date of their MMR to get into a movie theater or a parent-teacher conference or their job.

Are there any vaccines approved for children yet?

― Nhex, Tuesday, March 2, 2021 2:07 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

no. pfizer or moderna (i forget which) are in the final stage of trials.

xp We have requirements for kids in schools, but we don't require adults to show the date of their MMR to get into a movie theater or a parent-teacher conference or their job.

― Ima Gardener (in orbit), Tuesday, March 2, 2021 2:08 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'm not saying we should require MMR dates to get into a movie theater! (well, i do think that, but i live in the real world.)

but if the concern is that vaccination requirements will in practice exclude adults from society, it's worth noting that requiring kids to get vaccinated to go to school seems like it has caused poor kids to get vaccinated rather than caused poor kids to leave school.

it wouldn't work like this for adults (they don't have regular contact with institution like a school that can help them, etc., etc.) and we just don't have the public health infrastructure (or even the cultural belief in the idea of public health) to solve those problems. which is too bad!

i keep thinking about this piece:

https://newrepublic.com/article/157704/coronavirus-vaccine-united-states-health-care

if we had an NHS i think the arguments against vaccination requirements (with exceptions! in certain risky settings only!) would be weaker.

I think every situation has different things you have to weigh. Schools are also different from movie theaters because (1) we require kids to attend by law and (2) relatedly, kids themselves are minors and don't have much ability to manage their risk or say in the risk they are subjected to. Also, we don't require every vaccine on the planet. No flu vaccine requirement, for example. Just the ones for diseases considered a serious threat to kids.

I think we're about to see several examples of schools, employers and other private businesses testing these exact boundaries. I already saw one local restaurant owner making the case in some FB comments that he should be able to ask for proof of vaccine before letting a diner into his place. Essentially, his case boiled down to "how is it any different to require proof of vaccination as it is to require a temperature check at the door, if the entire point is to reduce the risk of someone entering my establishment and spreading COVID".

I'm OK with requiring movie theater attendance by law

Coupon, the movie

I'm OK with requiring movie theater attendance by law

Compulsory attendance to one non-tentpole, non-franchise movie every six months, for every household.

"how is it any different to require proof of vaccination as it is to require a temperature check at the door

aiui, the legality of the temp check is based upon the law allowing public health measures and the fact that such measures are universally required, not imposed and enforced by individual restaurant owners. Without the legal sanction provided by a public health order, any place of pubic accommodation refusing service to a patron on the basis of their temperature would be illegal.

That makes sense, I'm just saying that I'm going to bet we are going to see some people trying to push those boundaries and test the law.

I don't think vaccine IDs make sense in any circumstance until vaccines are readily available to anyone whenever they want. At that point, I would be ok with a vaccine requirement for international travel so long as there is a global pandemic. I'd also be ok with schools making COVID vaccines part of their requirements along with other vaccines. Beyond that, not much else is workable. If the virus remains widespread among the anti vax population, perhaps things would have to get more strict.