outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

i once went ten years without visiting the dentist before going back in 2017, found out I have pretty severe periondontitis, bone loss in teeth, fillings i need,etc. due to an insane two months at work that had me out of state almost the entire time, I missed an appointment, got too lazy to make another one, never went back. and now my reason for not going to the dentist isn't that i don't have time or it's too expensive, it's 'afraid to hear how bad it is gotten'. i'll learn when each tooth falls out, tyvm.

(in all seriousness, i think ima book one soon)

lol I've avoided the dentist since the pandemic hit but I've been brushing and flossing obsessively cuz I hate getting the drill

my dentist called me the other day to re-book my missed appt from 2020. I was like "how about...July?" which is now looking optimistic for Montreal :(

I'm moved and humbled by the restraint shown in shortening Johnson & Johnson to J&J in that tweet caek posted.

the big problem with pandemic-exacerbated depression is me recovering from it and realizing I now stress ate myself into not fitting into my clothes and let every other ounce of self-care go. unintentional second mountain to climb. but better than not being over the first one!

that's why i'm going to make a shit ton of appointments for things I've neglected (dentist, eye doctor) - I start with my new therapist today.

good luck!

i've been to the doctor a fair amount, i needed to and they have great protocols. these visits revealed my blood pressure and weight are increasing though, neanderthal, in a similar boat. too much pizza delivery. trying to eat healthier and gawd i'm out of shape. just focusing on running a mile every other day on a new treadmill. have to set attainable goals that won't discourage me. oh, also cutting down on nicotine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/03/brazil-covid-global-threat-new-more-lethal-variants-miguel-nicolelis

arrest Bolsonaro

idk that it matters *that* much, I mean, cases are still much too high for us to be resuming anything, but CDC misrepresenting the stats isn't great given how many people are unnecessarily pessimistic on the vaccines:

Cases of #COVID19 are on the rise.

As of March 1, the 7-day moving average of new cases is 66,010, a 3.5% increase from the previous week. Now is not the time to relax prevention measures. Wear a well-fitting mask. Stay 6 feet apart. Avoid crowds. More: https://t.co/YT7LKi6sF2. pic.twitter.com/5fjf0h0G9e

— CDC (@CDCgov) March 3, 2021

Why does the CDC keep doing this? Cases are not on the rise. We are not all a bunch of nimrods who don't understand what's happening.

We know that "reported" cases are not when the cases occurred, and we also know reported cases depend on the quantity of testing + natural delays pic.twitter.com/jAtXxrebyL

— Hold2 (@Hold2LLC) March 3, 2021

explain it to my feeble ape brain, please

and looking at Hold2's other tweets I'm less inclined to believe them

Even if cases were on the decline, it wouldn’t be time to run around blowing in strangers’ faces. Fewer people dying each week is still tens of thousands of people dying, more than nearly every other country.

https://i.ibb.co/rf6DMpb/Screenshot-20210303-213017.jpg
upload phots

CDC reported an increase in cases based on a comparison of the 7 day average on 2/24 and 3/1. The data's been wobbly over the last few weeks due to people delaying getting tested due to winter storms, Texas being delayed in their reporting, and test results being delayed. Essentially why the cases per day wildly spike up and down - as delays probably causes inflated numbers in later weeks.

The main reason for the "increase" is that they chose an arbitrary time period, if they had used 3/2, there wouldn't have been an increase.

They're not wrong thatit's too soon to remove restrictions 'period' as the number of cases are still elevated (higher than they were in the first wave last year).

But making it sound like there's a sustained, big increase in cases can be discouraging to the public. The cases have plateaued a bit. They're still way too high for regular life. So just say that. Anybody can see that before the first lockdown last year, we had way less cases than we have daily today. Don't freak people out that we're about to go back to Thxgiving numbers

I hope you all join me in FP'ing Joe:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/03/president-joe-biden-slams-governors-for-lifting-mask-mandates-calls-it-neanderthal-thinking.html

Even if cases were on the decline, it wouldn’t be time to run around blowing in strangers’ faces. Fewer people dying each week is still tens of thousands of people dying, more than nearly every other country.

― grab bag cum trash bag (sic), Wednesday, March 3, 2021 9:17 PM bookmarkflaglink

I know! This is why Texas is stupid. I just objected to their misleading tweet stats. I know we aren't on the back end of this thing yet

Day one, zero no-mask assholes in the store and everyone I saw inside the gas station/grocery store/etc. was still wearing a mask.

Granted, I'm in a city (though not one of the 70% Democratic cities).

I did get cursed at one Facebook for not "following the science" and "relying on my chin diaper" but I'm fairly sure that person wasn't even an actual customer.

But making it sound like there's a sustained, big increase in cases can be discouraging to the public. The cases have plateaued a bit. They're still way too high for regular life. So just say that. Anybody can see that before the first lockdown last year, we had way less cases than we have daily today. Don't freak people out that we're about to go back to Thxgiving numbers

― Red Nerussi (Neanderthal), Thursday, 4 March 2021 02:37 (one hour ago) link

I have definitely changed my thinking on this sort of thing over the course of the pandemic. Every time there's a well-meaning exaggeration of information it seems to have bad unintended consequences. Just give people the truth, not because everyone will interpret it perfectly, but because the alternative is worse.

^^

"just objected to their misleading tweet stats. I know we aren't on the back end of this thing yet"

I was explaining to Nhex's tiny ape brain

how i break it down to an extent

.@WVGovernor Jim Justice, a Republican, tells @JohnKingCNN he'll lift the state's mask mandate once more ppl get vaccinated. "But I don't know really what the big rush to get rid of the mask is because these masks can save a lot, a lot of lives."

— Veronica Stracqualursi (@VeronicaStrac) March 4, 2021

re: is it a reporting artifact or is it a real increase, here's why people thought it was an artifact a week ago https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/good-news-despite-data-wobbles-weekly-covid-19-data-feb-25. i'm not sure if that's still the view, but i don't begrudge anyone who doesn't trust the CDC at this point, and calling it an "increase" is a very aggressive interpretation.

https://media.vanityfair.com/photos/5aae788fccfbfe6fa35eca10/4:3/w_1276,h_957,c_limit/bill-hader-stefon-snl.jpg

The Hottest Club In NYC is...

Overnight appointments at Javits Center have just gone live for the first time. 1000s available

* 9pm - 6am
* Using Johnson & Johnson
* Book here: https://t.co/p0oxtKNDlX

No word on whether cocktails will be served.

— Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) March 4, 2021

covid tracking (who i trust more than the CDC on the numbers if not the public health implications tbqh) are still of the view that the recent wobble is either a slowdown in the decline or a reporting artifact:

https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/our-final-week-this-week-in-covid-data-mar-4

The decline in cases has been a point of confusion in the past week, as daily reports briefly jogged up after a large drop following President’s Day and disruptive winter storms in mid-February. A look at percentage change in reported cases since November 1 helps illustrate the dips and rises in reported cases seen around Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Day, and—more recently—the winter storms in mid-February. (On November 8, California did not report data in time to be included in our daily compilation.) Cases may plateau or rise at any point, and a close watch on the numbers is essential as vaccinations roll out alongside the spread of variants of SARS-CoV-2. But we would urge data watchers to be wary of conflating reporting artifacts with real changes in the state of the pandemic.

Although it seems unlikely based on current figures that a new surge is showing up in the case numbers, it is quite possible that case declines are beginning to slow. With reported tests up 12 percent this week—likely also because of a storm-related dip and rise—it’s impossible to be certain whether the case decline is slowing because of an increase in testing, or because disease prevalence itself is declining, albeit more slowly.

Read that yesterday. Another week or two of data should make it clearer.

It undermines the CDC's point a bit that the arbitrary data point they chose (comparing 2/22 7-day average to 3/1's average) would have yielded the opposite result if they moved the bookend forward a day (3/2's average was less than 2/e23's). And if you look at COVID Tracking's comparison of 2/25 - 3/3 to 2/18 - 2/24, it was 4.9% decrease last week.

I wouldn't be surprised if case drops ARE slowing though. We'd hit historic peaks so the initial drops would also be more drastic.

Also would have to guess most of drop was practical measures like social distancing, decreased travel, masks, and little to do with the vaccine yet? Or has vaccine made noticeable effect? As of yesterday only about 21% of the country had one shot.

The more important metric to me is that current hospitalizations continue to fall, and I do believe that is partially because of vaccines. 21% vaccinated but way disproportionately concentrated among most likely to be hospitalized.

Obviously hospitalizations are going to lag cases, but if I'm right then even if cases increase again I don't think we'll see a commensurate increase in hospitalizations.

Or has vaccine made noticeable effect?

i would guess this is most likely vaccine rollout fwiw

https://images.ctfassets.net/o2ll9t4ee8tq/75zi3V1ua2bDOkAZUniASY/925f52f2e61eae98cdeaf28b86cbbb8d/image8.png?w=1399&h=699&q=50

For that share to be going down while deaths overall are also going down is pretty great

has anyone seen ANY believable data to suggest that the vaccines aren't working as advertised? I have not.

a whole lot of people look at it and say "if I can't take my mask off immediately, it's pointless"

seems pretty reasonable to take off your mask once fully vaxed tbh

not in public it doesn't! no clear sense of whether you can be a vaccinated carrier, no way to be clear that you are vaccinated to total strangers.

if you can still carry and transmit, it does not

xp

trying to come to terms with how comfy i'll be around other fully vaccinated folks indoors tbh. this shit has been emotionally damaging and it's gonna take awhile to reorient.

I was going to say, the vaccine nurses who jabbed me told me to keep wearing a mask because there is no guarantee it prevents transmission.

I'll be more willing to let loose when the people in my little circle are fully vaccinated and vaccines are widely available to all. If there's still a sizeable chunk of people that just won't do it, that's their problem.

I think we are nowhere near the point of concern there yet, but that's an interesting point. How long do the vaccinated carry on masking for the sake of the refuseniks?

the thing is, when i go outside, nobody knows i'm vaccinated, so if i don't mask, I look like i'm not masking. and then five people next to me go "cool, I won't either".

rather just set the good example a while longer - even if it is determined I can't spread it.

The vaccinated carry on masking because it's good public policy; it doesn't benefit them or the unvaccinated around them. The vaccinated aren't going to die, get hospitalized, or even suffer serious COVID symptoms from the unmasked.

they could still transmit, so it does benefit people in general

Oh agreed, I'm not suggesting the vaccinated just stop wearing them now. I'm just playing out the near and longer term future and how things might evolve. I mean, in late 2022, should there be 30% of the population still unable to or unwilling to get vaccinated, are we all still going to remain masked? Some might, but I don't see large swaths of the population willing to do so.

could, yes. i think studies are showing that the mRNA vaccines do greatly reduce transmission (and that Novovax might outright be stopping it), but all of those studies are preliminary.

from the cursory data in Israel, I think it's a strong likelihood that transmission is greatly reduced for Moderna/Pfizer to where the vaccinated aren't a significant source of spread. but yes, it's important not to take studies that as of yet haven't been peer reviewed as gospel and just err on the side of caution.

once we reach herd immunity, masking shouldn't really *have* to continue (ie like a mandate), but I think people will start committing to the habit which will be at least good during flu seasons.

so far everything points to dramatically reduced chance of infection and transmission from vaccines, as well as death and hospitalization

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22291959/covid-vaccines-transmission-protect-spread-virus-moderna-pfizer

trying to come to terms with how comfy i'll be around other fully vaccinated folks indoors tbh. this shit has been emotionally damaging and it's gonna take awhile to reorient.

― G.A.G.S. (Gophers Against Getting Stuffed) (forksclovetofu), Friday, March 5, 2021 2:32 PM bookmarkflaglink

yeah, unfortunately the measures have been so severe and for so long, now masking is our default, so we're going to feel 'naked' not doing it. and feel a lack of 'trust' of the situation.

I have a weird dread - there's definitely a component of 'shaming' during the pandemic in a vocal minority of people that goes beyond what's acceptable. not shaming people who refuse to mask, who hold 50-people house parties (unmasked) in stuffy indoor buildings....but actually shaming people who dare to go outside their homes, even if masked and taking precautions. or 'judging' other people whose level of risk-taking, even if REALLY small, happens to be different than theirs.

I keep wondering if this loud group (which sadly, I know quite a few of) will keep shouting at people even as we near herd immunity and can realistically start removing restrictions for legitimate reasons (rather than appeasing covidiots). I mean, I WILL punch them in the nose and take a picture of it....but I really do think it's going to, as forks said, be an adjustment process to reacclimate ourselves to our pre-pandemic life, and that some people in my circle are going to be assholes about how I resume my life.

even as we near herd immunity

before pile-on , I know we're not near it yet, but I mean when we get near it.

the only argument I really see for a vaccinated person masking is that they won't have a giant "V" on their shirt so it might make others nervous to be indoors with them, plus it will avoid a lot of confusion when businesses are trying to enforce policies (and they don't have to take someone's word for it on vaccination). But if I'm vaccinated and I have vaccinated people in my home, I don't see a need for masks. In fact, when my fully vaccinated parents come to visit for the first time, I don't plan to wear a mask, esp since I won't be in any potential exposure situations in the 10 days leading up to their visit.

I think we've reached the point where if you want to have beers indoors or outdoors with your fellow vaccinated bros you can. You've earned it.

This is good on variant alarmism:

https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-has-a-covid-scariants-problem-heres-how-to-fix-it/