outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

From WaPo:

The Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine appears to be highly effective against a more contagious variant first discovered in Brazil, according to a new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, raising hopes that ongoing vaccination efforts will help curb its spread.

The study was conducted by scientists with the vaccine manufacturers — U.S. firm Pfizer and German partner BioNTech — and researchers at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston. It comes as public-health experts warn that the more transmissible variants could drive yet another surge in covid-19 cases, particularly as restrictions are lifted across the United States.

As health officials rush to get ahead of the virus variants, Congress is on track to pass pandemic relief legislation after months of debate, with the House set to begin consideration of the $1.9 trillion package at 9 a.m. Wednesday. Once passed, President Biden will sign the measure into law.

Here are some significant developments:
Some experts disagree with the CDC’s guideline that discourage vaccinated people from traveling. One leading physician said the agency “is being far overly cautious in a way that defies common sense.”
Cybercriminals are flooding potential victims with scams using the pending coronavirus relief plan as bait, according to a report by researchers at cybersecurity firm Proofpoint.
The backers of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine signed a deal Tuesday that could pave the way for production in Italy, a potential major step in Moscow’s efforts to expand its vaccine reach in the West.
The coronavirus began proliferating rapidly in the United States around this time last year. Now, infectious-disease experts are acknowledging how they underestimated the pathogen, especially in the critical early days of the crisis.
The seven-day average for new daily coronavirus cases in the United States has dropped below 58,000 for the first time since mid-October.
Nearly 32 million people in the United States have been fully vaccinated, a little less than 10 percent of the population. The nation is averaging about 2.1 million doses per day, up from about 1.5 million one month ago.

NEW: Alaska is now making covid vaccines available to everyone over the age of 16. It's the first state to expand vaccine eligibility to all ages that are approved to receive covid doses. pic.twitter.com/ugNHNqAa91

— Mike Baker (@ByMikeBaker) March 10, 2021

From kip covid thread:

In other KIP news, the flu is/was virtually non existent this year (so far). Not just low, as I understand it next to nothing. I just saw that in Canada, for example, "Influenza activity remains below the threshold required to declare the start of the 2020-21 influenza season." In the US, "Public health labs across the U.S. reported a grand total of 3 cases of flu in the U.S. last week, out of nearly 16,000 samples tested. Clinical laboratories, which tested nearly 25,000 samples, found just 14 flu cases. So far this season, labs reporting to the CDC had just 1,585 samples test positive for flu of any kind. Compare that to last year over the same period, when there were more than 183,000 positive samples."

That's hundreds of thousands of people not sick, not in the hospital, and not dead. That's good news. Granted, it took some terrible news to get us there, but ... KIP!

― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 9 March 2021 23:58 (yesterday) link

More than anything it illustrates how contagious covid-19 is by comparison. The social upheaval of nonclinical interventions against covid, that still resulted in half a million dead in the USA, virtually eliminated flu transmission.

― Canon in Deez (silby), Wednesday, 10 March 2021 00:25 (eleven hours ago) link

The other day a senior health official here was warning that the coming winter is going to be shit for the health service, not directly because of covid but because they’re expecting it to be a particularly bad flu year due to the above leaving us with a much lower population immunity.

Moved to this thread cause obv not really kip but it’s an interesting wrinkle & a reminder of the ongoing cost of the pandemic even post-vaccine. I’m hoping that we maintain some of the new norms (masks, sanitiser stations) to at least mitigate the surge in other respiratory viruses once restrictions are eventually lifted.

i've expressed many times itt and others that mask wearing should absolutely be a normal thing during flu season

other countries do it why not all of us

I’d rather not, tbh.

"I'd prefer not to."

I think I’ll wear a mask if I’m sick, but not all season long!

it's usually cold out anyway and it keeps your face warm but you do you

ha yeah I've been wearing a mask when I walk before sunrise not for COVID but to warm/protect my throat.

just thinking wistfully about how fewer dead ppl there'd be xp

At this point I feel like I will be wearing masks in the winter (at least) for the rest of my life. #1, it lowers the spread of disease and I'm someone who gets at least one bad cold every winter, but didn't get one this year; #2, I wear a cloth mask, not a surgical mask, and it keeps my face warm in cold weather. That said, I'm curious about how the shift away from mask-wearing in 1918-1919 went. Would be interested to read an article or paper about that, just to see how gradual a process it was, especially since from what I've read there weren't nearly as many "muh freedom" chuds back then.

pretty sure i'm going to be the guy on the subway with a mask from now until the sun dies. Outside I can see getting over it pretty quick.

I will honestly say that I am extraordinarily stoked about eventurally not having to wear one outside— on my cycle around the city this morning, the moments in the parks, away from any people, were glorious— breathing fresh early spring air without a mask on does wonders.

I have a walking route through my neighborhood that takes me through very empty streets where I'm the only person on my side of the sidewalk and there's often no one in sight at all. I let my mask down for that part of the walk and it feels wonderful. Being able to smell the spring air makes a huge difference to my mood.

Yeah no one wears masks outside here, people walk by all day long but there's plenty of room--not in the city obv.

other countries do it why not all of us

I went to the Philippines during flu season. It definitely didn't seem to be everyone. Maybe one in ten people, which is still a lot of people. The flu was bad that year.

I'm not sure if those wearing it were sick but I assumed probably they were or just trying not to get sick.

(2019)

other countries do it why not all of us

Anywhere outside of the Japan/China/Korea and environs though?

San Francisco now over 200,000 with at least one shot; over-65 population about to hit 70% of that, approaching 40% with two doses.

My wife (teacher) should get her second shot next week, I think!

when we say "other countries do it", i don't think "it" is "wear a mask all winter"?

Anywhere outside of the Japan/China/Korea and environs though?

― Wrote For Lunch (Tom D.), Wednesday, March 10, 2021 11:13 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

not to my knowledge but what, is it a bad idea

making waves of controversy in this thread today i see

Personally I still haven't cracked the glasses-fog problem, so I'm unlikely to wear a mask all winter without duress, but it would be awesome if it became normal to wear one for doctor's visits, flights, what have you

i am def talking more about dense urban experiences than your super isolated walk in the park or whatever

I would probably think about it if I was visiting nyc in the winter tbrr

i love wearing a mask, ima mask up forever

I live in a city btw, and I wear a mask until I get to the more empty/quiet part of the neighborhood. I was just agreeing about how good it feels to take off the mask and breathe the air.

Didn't mean to seem like I was gloating about my empty streets.

But I do wonder how much you actually need to wear a mask outdoors, even in dense urban environments. If you're getting on a bus, or the subway, or popping into stores, then yeah, I think it would be cool if we kept carrying masks around for that. But as I understand it, even COVID, which is super-contagious, is very unlikely to spread just from people passing each other unmasked on the sidewalk. I wear a mask outdoors because we're in a pandemic and it's best to err on the side of caution, and because I want to reassure other people that I'm safe and trustworthy. But once this is over, I would think it would make more sense to focus on masking indoors in crowded areas rather than outdoors.

My wife (teacher) should get her second shot next week, I think!

― DJI, Wednesday, March 10, 2021 11:07 AM (fifty-four minutes ago)

Our teachers received codes but have to go to Oakland Coliseum for some reason. What an absolute shitshow.

Crossing the bridge isn't that bad?

Meanwhile most of my friends in biotech (non-lab) have all had at least one vaccination and they are all as inessential as you can imagine, working from home, etc.

But I do wonder how much you actually need to wear a mask outdoors, even in dense urban environments. If you're getting on a bus, or the subway, or popping into stores, then yeah, I think it would be cool if we kept carrying masks around for that. But as I understand it, even COVID, which is super-contagious, is very unlikely to spread just from people passing each other unmasked on the sidewalk. I wear a mask outdoors because we're in a pandemic and it's best to err on the side of caution, and because I want to reassure other people that I'm safe and trustworthy. But once this is over, I would think it would make more sense to focus on masking indoors in crowded areas rather than outdoors.

I would feel weirder and more self-conscious carrying a mask in my pocket and putting it on to walk into Target or wherever than I do just putting it on before I leave my apartment and not taking it off till I get back.

listen sorry for starting this tangent, everyone can do what they want in the after times

i also wasn’t responding to your post directly lily!

If Victoria is anything to go by mask wearing went the minute the mandates ended. Compliance was very good, and came back when mask wearing came back, but I see very little evidence of mask wearing beyond mandatory situations (public transport, taxis.

Our vaccine rollout as poorly as anything else run by the federal government. They bungled procurement and now they are bungling roll out, well behind target an no signs of acceleration. We should give up on federation at this point the federal government has given up on everything. (3 of the cabinet are on sick leave, 2 have gone down with a nasty case not wanting to front the media about alleged rapes)

I'm not judging anyone who wants to keep masking up, I just personally can't wait to not have to do it anymore.

i also wasn’t responding to your post directly lily!

sorry, I know you weren't. idk why I took it personally, i shouldn't have.

everything's heated these days it's ok!! <333

Huge win for vaccines here.

Remember, Israel has a lot of COVID variants going around, including the scary South Africa variant.

Now we find that the Pfizer vaccine blocks 94% of ASYMPTOMATIC infections, even with variants in the mix!https://t.co/eZL9QsqJOZ

— Noah Smith 🐇 (@Noahpinion) March 11, 2021

tite

hell yeah

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck yess

Nominating this cinematic masterpiece for an Oscar pic.twitter.com/YgiOpZRw1i

— Alex Cohen (@anothercohen) March 9, 2021

Interesting note today on the SF Covid update page:

https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/COVID-19-Vaccinations/a49y-jeyc

March 2021 Update: Issues with the California Immunization Registry data system have resulted in the number of vaccinations being underreported since March 2nd. This affects all the dashboards on this page. Data will be updated as soon as these issues are resolved.

Which, great! If we're doing even better than has been reported, bring it on.

And we are down to 37 cases/day average, which is pre-holiday level!

From the SFGov page "vaccine approved for 16+ only" - I guess I've been under a rock, I didn't know that. Are 15yos less vulnerable somehow, or does it just suck to be 15? No driver's license, no vaccine ...

They're still doing trials on younger kids, and they probably won't have access til the fall.