outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

God said he wouldn't flood the entire world again, just the places where there are libs

meanwhile, I think Macron is announcing something big?

"Pizza for everybody."

oh, i see he was just speechifying about policies going into effect today that were previously announced.

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2021/07/emmanuel-macron-s-coercive-vaccination-strategy-example-rest-europe

On 21 July the first stage of France’s plan to pressurise its population into getting vaccinated will take effect, with vaccine passports required for entry to cultural venues such as theatres and cinemas. A few weeks later, that condition will be extended to a swathe of other activities, including long-distance travel, bars and restaurants. The unvaccinated can present proof of recovery from coronavirus or a recent negative PCR test as an alternative, though tests will soon cost €49. Venues which do not check their customers’ vaccination status will face hefty fines.

The administration rate of first doses has begun to taper off in many European countries – so is coercion the way to achieve vaccination? Without fully mandating compulsory vaccination, French president Emmanuel Macron has chosen to make life progressively more inconvenient ­– not to mention expensive – for those who have not completed a full course of immunisation. Other European countries are taking similar steps, though few have yet to go as far as France.

As for the Alabama piece, my podcast cohost Oriana zeroed in on the one unavoidable problem not sufficiently addressed. And it's not that physician's fault but...

there’s a big problem here that’s unsaid: having a “primary care physician” in the first place is a huge barrier https://t.co/vaznPN0uuY pic.twitter.com/M46hzwJ8p9

— Oriana Schwindt (@Schwindter) July 21, 2021

A better note:

On "breakthrough" infections post-vaccination in India.
~5% of >28,000 healthcare workers with mild symptoms, 0.29% led to hospitalization, no deaths; they were 83% suppressed by AZ and Bharat Biotech vaccineshttps://t.co/YZKLAmxZMZ

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 21, 2021

meanwhile, I think Macron is announcing something big? I saw a mistranslation of the French a while back, waiting for actual French translator

Seems to be announcing an investigation into that Pegasus spyware thing, nothing coronavirus related afaict.

speaking of evangelical charlatans

Fully packed event at Influence church in Anaheim right now. This is the latest stop in Clay Clark’s roving Health and Freedom tour. Main auditorium filled to capacity and hundreds more in huge tent outside. Food trucks sputter outside, merch tables lined up. pic.twitter.com/nzIjpf5DOF

— Sam Kestenbaum (@skestenbaum) July 17, 2021

i've lost track of all these dudes and it doesn't help that all of them have names like "clay clark"

Funny how it works

Here’s the PSA Fox News is now airing encouraging their viewers to get vaccinated: pic.twitter.com/OHwxUGuhCY

— Tim Hogan (@timjhogan) July 21, 2021

But meantime

Charlie Kirk calls encouraging people to get the COVID vaccine "virtue signaling" pic.twitter.com/Vdiwqrcci7

— nikki mccann ramírez (@NikkiMcR) July 22, 2021

The first question anyone should ask Tucker is if he is vaccinated, cause I guaranty he has been.

he wants to be asked to he can scandalize libs by saying stuff like this so i'm not sure what the point would be https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/20/business/media/tucker-carlson.html

Good friend who is a doctor is reacting to the current wave by 1. Quitting his job (albeit with a 90 day waiting period during which he has to work) and 2. Openly wishing for the Darwining of the antivax. Can't say I blame him.

really? they're just like, fuck it, i hate these people, i can't do it?

i don't blame them. this is why i never had the moral fiber to be a doctor, though

that whole thread Tracer mentioned is quite something -

This whole thing is, of course, an excellent content opportunity all around. Lots of cameras and streaming and what looks like a documentary of some sort in the works. pic.twitter.com/Aw9E0rdzSn

— Sam Kestenbaum (@skestenbaum) July 17, 2021

XP not quite that harsh but definitely exasperated and at the end of patience. I should note he practices in TX.

The first question anyone should ask Tucker is if he is vaccinated, cause I guaranty he has been.

― Carlos Santana & Mahavishnu Rob Thomas (PBKR), Wednesday, July 21, 2021 10:19 PM (yesterday)

oh he was asked https://news.yahoo.com/tucker-carlson-compares-covid-19-225112275.html

Extremely good interview

🚨Unvaccinated people aren't a monolith. It's a huge mistake to treat them all as anti-vaxxers who are being selfish or antagonistic.

I spoke to @RheaBoydMD about why some folks are still unvaccinated, what to do about it, & why she's still hopeful. 1/https://t.co/xTXM7aRjke

— Ed Yong (@edyong209) July 22, 2021

SF has updated its data tracker.

https://sf.gov/resource/2021/covid-19-data-and-reports

good link, Ned. and good interview.

everything Dr Boyd states is valid and correct and it's important to understand that some people aren't vaccinated due to lack of access or other concerns as opposed to assuming everybody's a virulent anti-vaxxer.

my only concern about Dr Boyd's statements on this (which I had read outside of the interview) is not from the interview, but this Tweet:

That “work” is MUCH more high touch than spouting condescension online.

“The unvaccinated” are not a monolith of defectors. They are people our health care system has long underserved - Black folks, rural folks, un and un/under insured folks and young folks.

— Rhea Boyd MD, MPH (@RheaBoydMD) July 17, 2021

the audience for that message seems to be the general public, but in the thread, the work she describes seems to focus mostly on community-based initiatives. for the common individual that doesn't have the ability to partake in a community vaccination drive, it's a bit murkier what they can do. she mentions equipping the skeptics with the tools to protect themselves and others, but often times those fall on deaf ears. People respond to links with...other links, usually of the dubious variety. and when it comes to answering questions, if I'm not a medical professional - I probably can't do that adequately!

the snark on Twitter that Dr Boyd refers to, I almost always see concentrated to actual anti-vaxxers who are spreading legitimate disinformation - not people who are curious and looking for help. one of my best friends wasn't vaccinated due to his fear of needles (he got his first shot today), and I sure as hell didn't bully him. but if he'd been spreading anti-vax rhetoric, I mean....it'd have been hard to be civil, no?

I guess I"m just looking for what the common civilian can do in addition to community efforts, like - what we're supposed to change about our daily conversations? I felt like I did a lot of work being an ambassador for vaccines early on, since I was part of the trial, but pretty much everybody I know now is vaccinated, and being that I'm often tied to the house due to my father, I need these alternative options since community initiatives are difficult for me to attend.

i don't know what the solutions are, but the legit unpersuadable anti-vaxx cranks are a minority of the unvaccinated and it's definitely not productive to focus on them (beyond getting them kicked off facebook, etc.)

(they're also not a winning electoral coalition. they make a lot of noise but there just aren't enough of them that "we were anti-vaccine" is going to be a thing republicans will be proud to talk about next year after another wave or two. not naive enough to think there will be electoral consequences, but i do think that realization -- we're going to get more waves, you do actually personally need to get vaccinated or you're going to get it -- and most people don't want to get it -- is what's behind the current GOP/Fox News vaccine push.)

definitely don't think anybody should be expending hours of energy engaging those folks or centering them as the face of the unvaccinated. I want the vaccination rate back up, rather than being stuck at the 500k/day it's been at for the last few weeks.

I've had two friends who were late adopters due to their reaction to needles, one of whom cried for a half hour afterwards due to how bad her phobia is. proud of both of them.

While it's ultimately less important than the fact that the messaging around vaccination is actually evolving with many of the right-wing crank media people and influencers, I'm still left wondering what finally motivated the change these past two weeks. Obviously it's not the renewed threat of it being *their* voters dying off, since that didn't move the needle a bit in any of the previous waves when the red states were slammed with cases and deaths either. I've seen idle speculation that it's internal polling numbers (which I'm very skeptical about) or threat of lawsuits (also skeptical, I doubt anything would actually stick).

"you do actually personally need to get vaccinated or you're going to get it" - i know one person who got their first dose last week because this is now so obviously true. they were not anti-vaxx as such, and understood other people getting vaccinated helped them, but they were happy to let the public health duty/inconvenience/tiny risk of side effects, etc. fall on other people, while enjoying the thrill of being anti-establishment, or something? that changed with this wave.

shame it's come to this, but this wave is probably going to be the most effective public health measure in driving vaccinations this summer.

i don't know if it even requires polling for them to make the very obvious electoral calculation. 70% of voters have had 1+ dose.

at least among the adults in the GOP (fox news execs, mcconnell, desantis, etc.) i think these big-brained bloggers are right about what's happening:

I don't think this is that complicated.

The vaccinated are a supermajority of voters, they have every reason to be highly annoyed with the unvaccinated and the people who abet them, and the Delta variant makes it more likely this will still be a salient issue by November 2022. https://t.co/sZBeblCzSO

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 21, 2021

For as much as we're a hopelessly polarized country, ~70% of adults (and I'd guess more like ~75% of likely voters) are already at least partly vaccinated. It's hard to get 70-75% of the country to agree on anything!

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 21, 2021

Yeah, this is basically what I argued in the post. They suddenly feel very exposed carrying the anti-vax brand. It's the turning on a dime that's harder to figure. Yes, Delta is running out of control. But they've been fairly immune to other new facts on this front.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 21, 2021

xpost - I mean, yeah, but logic rarely dictates anything for these people who are infamous for only digging in their heels harder. I think I'm more struck by how FAST the turn came, not like slowly one or two people every few weeks coming around. It was almost whiplash enducing.

they thought it was over and they could criticize public health measures that were behind us without any consequence, and then 2 weeks ago it very suddenly became clear it wasn't over. honestly think it's this simple.

https://i.imgur.com/cfGjrod.png

Yeah, again, that makes sense as a simple explanation. But we've seen surges like this before and they didn't give a fuck. I have a hard time imagining these ghouls just suddenly care.

shame it's come to this, but this wave is probably going to be the most effective public health measure in driving vaccinations this summer.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, July 22, 2021 12:40 PM bookmarkflaglink

supposedly my friend didn't even plan to get his today and went to his physical and his doctor basically said "come on, bro." and pointed out exactly what you mentioned above - if you don't, you'll probably get it, and dude has two kids under 6 years old.

I think the sudden turn is 100% connected to the stock market scare on Monday

Meantime, good thoughts from Bob Wachter. I mean, there really wasn't a reason not to mask up in general.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Why-unvaccinated-people-wear-mask-UCSF-Wachter-16327481.php

does make sense honestly. it also becomes easier to revisit months/years later and invoke a little revisionism by fucking with the timeline - "they were never anti-vax/anti-COVID, they were talking about taking it seriously from the beginning".

Maybe they've seen polling numbers indicating that their audiences + constituents are finally growing wary of taking an increasing amount of the collateral damage in their endless intransigent attempts to own the libs.

xposts

i share your confusion there, jon. i think it might be hard for us to wrap our heads around the logic of being a covid-hoax/overblown person for 18 straight months, in the face of all the real death happening all around, multiple waves. why now?

i don't know. maybe it's like the end of a party. a couple people leave. one person joins and is super loud. it goes on for a while. and then suddenly, hannity leaves, a couple other influential people leave with him. the party is still going right? but 5 minutes later, it isn't. it's late, and a bunch of people have died. maybe it's time to go to some other death party now.

?

there's also the idea that when systems collapse, it's often when they're at their most complex and overextended.

But we've seen surges like this before and they didn't give a fuck.

We haven't seen surges that would be this easy to stop. Easy? Maybe not. But EASIER than virtual schools, shutting down businesses, restricting interstate travel?? Hell yeah.

Oh I like this.

The NFL just informed clubs that if a game cannot be rescheduled during the 18-week season in 2021 due to a COVID outbreak among unvaccinated players, the team with the outbreak will FORFEIT and be credited with a loss for playoff seeding, per sources.

Massive implications.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) July 22, 2021

Here’s more from today’s memo, which also says the team responsible for a canceled game because of an outbreak among unvaccinated players/staff will be responsible for financial losses and subject to potential discipline from the commissioner. Wow. pic.twitter.com/Q86a2WcG1K

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) July 22, 2021

Of course, we know that threats from Goodell are mostly 'hah yeah right' but I kinda have a feeling that this has some actual teeth behind it.

does make sense honestly. it also becomes easier to revisit months/years later and invoke a little revisionism by fucking with the timeline - "they were never anti-vax/anti-COVID, they were talking about taking it seriously from the beginning".

― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal)

100% on the timeline fuckery. the lines are "i'm waiting til CDC approves the vaccinations!" or "i waited until i could see my doctor in person to get their advice" or "i wanted to do my research" or whatever. there will be no learning or vindication or apologies or anything like that. we just have to be happy that eventually they did the right thing.

good on the NFL, and that's something i haven't thought in a long time

fuck this looks terrible, Illinois' daily new cases for the last month:

Week over week reference:
28 Days Ago: 248
21 Days Ago: 457
14 Days Ago: 617
7 Days Ago: 861
Today: 1,993

well the difference between this surge and all the others is that A) this one is almost exclusively happening among unvaccinated people and B) it's coming after a prolonged period of things looking better and more "normal". if lockdown measures need to be initiated again and suddenly baseball games and outdoor gatherings start getting cancelled people are gonna know exactly who's responsible, especially since "I don't wanna get the same shot that hundreds of millions of people already got" is a bit less sympathetic than "I don't want to punt a year of my life".

in other words I think Nate Silver's mostly right here, all the anti-vaxx stuff looks like it might be a major albatross for them, and since it's disproportionately killing Republicans it also threatens to undo all the work they've put into preventing black people from voting

This is blunt, but.

Prayers to his loved ones, RIP pic.twitter.com/8uFVG4zxg5

— T. Greg Doucette (@greg_doucette) July 22, 2021

Setting aside the snark in the replies, this does all appear to be real. Reading back over his tweets throughout July, it ain't pretty.

https://twitter.com/stephenharmon

And that last screenshot is indeed Brian Houston, founder of Hillsong.

Ben has just passed on to us the devastating news that our beloved friend, Stephen Harmon has passed away from Covid. Heartbreaking.

— Brian Houston (@BrianCHouston) July 22, 2021

tbh I'm also reeling from the sudden turn in Republican Lizard Land toward "please, y'all, get jabbed," and the only explanation I can come up with is, "Whoa, we're seeing terrible polling that might doom our midterm chances next year."

Let 'em suffer.

Very good piece, similar to the Wachter one.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/fully-vaccinated-masking-delta/619532/

the thing about dying of Covid when your social media is full of anti-vaxx bullshit is that it's such an incredibly embarrassing way to die, I almost feel bad for them

it doesn't matter. his friends and family won't speak of it, and they'll make up other reasons. there will be no Moment when they all speak the truth and talk about it openly. they just won't talk about it. everyone else, you, me, whoever's laughing at them - some other idiot will die tomorrow. they'll forget about Stephen...Harmon? what was his name? i don't want to load the previous page right now. but that's the point. Stephen __ will be forgotten by everyone else, and his former inner circle just won't talk about it. that makes the problem "go away" for them

for example, i believe stephen harmon died of advanced pneumonia. it's a tragedy that the lord had to take him away in the prime of his life, and doubly tragic that people are blaming it on covid. i heard that covid actually makes pneumonia more likely and also more severe - if covid wasn't so overblown maybe stephen could have gotten better healthcare. it's the hospital's fault.