outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

mRNA vaccines are remarkably and beautifully protean.

xpost Because in the past other deadly viruses were countered and stalled with vaccines that people actually took?

In retrospect, it's seems slightly delusional that the J&J vaccine could be administered in a single dose. That's the one I got, and wanted at the time

Humankind has a very long history with cold and influenza viruses, so we have a reservoir of immunity that is constantly refreshed as the various strains circulate. But you may recall that it was a new, more-deadly strain of influenza that caused the 1919 worldwide pandemic that killed between 20 and 50 million people, so yes, flu virus can mutate into something more dangerous and kill a ton of people. It happened not so long ago.

Sure, it can happen, it just seems like people act like they are expecting it to happen any day now. I mean, to this day the flu vaccine has a very low uptake rate and isn't even that great at preventing transmission, yet it seems like we only get a substantially more deadly strain every few decades or so?

viruses like COVID becoming more deadly actually is the antithesis to their goal, because killing a significant amount of their hosts puts their survival in jeopardy, though obviously plenty of viruses have a high mortality rate.

I think Dr Angela Rasmussen had it right - yes we should be worried about future variants that might have more ability to escape immunity, but isn't Delta enough of a motherfucker that we should finish fighting it first? and it is unlikely that a future variant would be able to evade immune response from the vaccinated entirely (her words).

Beta was actually a mutation that better evaded immune response than even Delta itself but it was so much less transmissible that it got alpha-maled the fuck out of the way by delta

Just because it's a small bugaboo of mine, most of those that died in 1919 died of pneumonia, not the flu, because we didn't have antibiotics yet.

right -- so, the 1918/19 flu outbreak was, biologically, a different kind of pathogen. one of the main reasons it was so deadly was it was spread so quickly by infected soldiers in a time when science didn't have very good telescopes to analyze the virus. also, the world was less connected. no real sharing of information or internet or database of scientific research/data. a similar kind of flu would not create such an issue these days.

obviously i'm not a virologist, but my unexplored territory comment was because, depending on which origin theory you believe in, it looks like there was no need for a different host species for the virus to mutate into a stronger variant. in other words, mutation, transmissibility, and strength happened between bats and directly jumped into an ecosystem (the human species) where it appears to be flourishing. and now humans have been able to spread it so quickly and strongly; this is already a huge problem because most viruses die in a new host species quite easily.

the other issue is, and i know i'm wording this poorly, the more the virus encounters its host species, the more it finds a way to evade its immunity.

this is pretty interesting:

https://scitechdaily.com/new-research-finds-sars-cov-2-the-virus-that-causes-covid-19-jumped-from-bats-to-humans-without-much-change/

Pond comments, “what’s been so surprising is just how transmissible SARS-CoV-2 has been from the outset. Usually viruses that jump to a new host species take some time to acquire adaptations to be as capable as SARS-CoV-2 at spreading, and most never make it past that stage, resulting in dead-end spillovers or localized outbreaks.”

Studying the mutational processes of SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses (the group of viruses SARS-CoV-2 belongs to from bats and pangolins), the authors find evidence of fairly significant change, but all before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. This means that the ‘generalist’ nature of many coronaviruses and their apparent facility to jump between hosts, imbued SARS-CoV-2 with ready-made ability to infect humans and other mammals, but those properties probably evolved in bats prior to spillover to humans.

Joint first author and PhD student Spyros Lytras adds, “Interestingly, one of the closer bat viruses, RmYN02, has an intriguing genome structure made up of both SARS-CoV-2-like and bat-virus-like segments. Its genetic material carries both distinct composition signatures (associated with the action of host anti-viral immunity), supporting this change of evolutionary pace occurred in bats without the need for an intermediate animal species.”

Robertson comments, “the reason for the ‘shifting of gears’ of SARS-CoV-2 in terms of its increased rate of evolution at the end of 2020, associated with more heavily mutated lineages, is because the immunological profile of the human population has changed.” The virus towards the end of 2020 was increasingly coming into contact with existing host immunity as numbers of previously infected people are now high. This will select for variants that can dodge some of the host response. Coupled with the evasion of immunity in longer-term infections in chronic cases (e.g., in immunocompromised patients), these new selective pressures are increasing the number of important virus mutants.

It’s important to appreciate SARS-CoV-2 still remains an acute virus, cleared by the immune response in the vast majority of infections. However, it’s now moving away faster from the January 2020 variant used in all of the current vaccines to raise protective immunity. The current vaccines will continue to work against most of the circulating variants but the more time that passes, and the bigger the differential between vaccinated and not-vaccinated numbers of people, the more opportunity there will be for vaccine escape. Robertson adds, “The first race was to develop a vaccine. The race now is to get the global population vaccinated as quickly as possible.”

having said that, i haven't read the PLoS research paper the article above is based on. it's this one in case you feel like checking it out:

https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001115#sec002

WHO said two weeks ago lab leak can't be ruled out fwiw

i write depending on what origin theory you believe in because of this, fyi, from the PLoS article (i gave it a quick look):

Nonetheless, the amount of time between the first spillover of the progenitor SARS-CoV-2 in humans and sequencing the first variants remains unknown. This raises the concern that important changes might have taken place in that “unsampled” period that cannot be picked up by our SARS-CoV-2 genomic analysis. Despite the inability to directly address these concerns without earlier SARS-CoV-2 sequences or broader sampling of the virus’s close relatives, such adaptive changes should theoretically be detected in our Sarbecovirus analysis. That we fail to find evidence of diversifying selection on the terminal branch leading up to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in humans (Fig 2B), indicates that the adaptations that created a generalist capable of efficient replication in humans and other mammals, probably did not occur in the unsampled SARS-CoV-2 lineage.

Just want to point out I remember being dunked on for comments like this months back:

But also, at some point there needs to be a non-shifting standard for what is "safe." Once teachers are vaccinated, do we also need to have the lowest possible community spread AND masks AND 6 feet distancing AND barriers AND cohorting AND no eating indoors? Because at some point that makes returning to school pragmatically impossible. COVID is here to stay, we aren't going to eradicate it.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Saturday, February 13, 2021 6:00 PM (five months ago) bookmarkflaglink

Why not

― Canon in Deez (silby), Saturday, February 13, 2021 6:04 PM (five months ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean, that's kind of the consensus among epidemiologists right now

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Saturday, February 13, 2021 6:09 PM (five months ago) bookmarkflaglink

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/12/coronavirus-dr-fauci-says-he-doubts-whether-covid-can-be-eradicated.html
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/21/world/science-health-world/vaccines-coronavirus-eradication/
the-scientist.com/news-opinion/sars-cov-2-isnt-going-away-experts-predict-68386
https://qz.com/1968898/will-the-covid-19-vaccines-end-the-pandemic/

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Saturday, February 13, 2021 6:11 PM (five months ago) bookmarkflaglink

to some extent, same reasons we never eradicated flu or the common cold, to some extent different reasons specific to COVID

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Saturday, February 13, 2021 6:12 PM (five months ago) bookmarkflaglink

let me rock that dunkie dunkie

viruses like COVID becoming more deadly actually is the antithesis to their goal, because killing a significant amount of their hosts puts their survival in jeopardy

I understand the point, but viruses aren't like parasites or bacteria in that they aren't strictly speaking living organisms at all. By speaking about their having goals or an innate desire for survival it conjures ideas that really don't apply. They're just bits of rogue genetic material adrift in the sea of living things.

uh have you read their tweets

I understand the point, but viruses aren't like parasites or bacteria in that they aren't strictly speaking living organisms at all. By speaking about their having goals or an innate desire for survival it conjures ideas that really don't apply. They're just bits of rogue genetic material adrift in the sea of living things.

It’s all about the mathematics of survival replication.

Yes. You probably get all that, sorry, but talking of goals is just a convenient shorthand, I think. Does it matter?

lots of good news here:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-u-k-s-delta-surge-is-collapsing-will-ours.html

delta cases in the UK are plummeting and also this interesting note in favour of intranasal spray as booster:

Buried in the CDC presentation was one additional striking fact: that the Delta variant was so much more transmissible, in part, because of how quickly and prolifically it reproduces and takes root within the nose. What is most remarkable about that is that we have a suite of tools that might help precisely combat that problem, though we aren’t using them: intranasal vaccinations, which are delivered not by jabbing a needle into the muscle of your shoulder but by spraying a mist up your nostril.

This isn’t just a matter of Delta. Back in March, before India’s Delta surge had even begun, Scientific American published a sort of intranasal call to arms, by Eric Topol and Daniel P. Oran, under the headline “To Beat COVID, We May Need a Good Shot in the Nose.” As they wrote then, the current class of vaccines being rolled out, all delivered via intramuscular injection, were proving almost miraculously effective at preventing serious disease, hospitalization, and death. “But several coronavirus variants have emerged that could at least partly evade the immune response induced by the vaccines,” they wrote. “These variants should serve as a warning against complacency — and encourage us to explore a different type of vaccination, delivered as a spray in the nose.”

Today, the article reads almost like a Delta prophecy. “Although injected vaccines do reduce symptomatic COVID cases, and prevent a lot of severe illness, they may still allow for asymptomatic infection,” they wrote. “The reason is that the coronavirus can temporarily take up residence in the mucosa — the moist, mucus-secreting surfaces of the nose and throat that serve as our first line of defense against inhaled viruses.” An intranasal vaccine, they suggested, was the solution: “With a quick spritz up the nose, intranasal vaccines are designed to bolster immune defenses in the mucosa, triggering production of an antibody known as immunoglobulin A, which can block infection. This overwhelming response, called sterilizing immunity, reduces the chance that people will pass on the virus.”

Oran and Topol cited one study with animals that showed intranasal vaccines were able to almost entirely prevent infection with SARS-CoV-2 and another that showed they could completely block transmission — the point at which our intramuscular vaccines, it seems, are doing much worse with Delta. The advantages were presumably just as clear even earlier in the pandemic to Preston Estep, who, well before the FDA approved any vaccines and even before any clinical-trial data was available for them, was distributing his own DIY version to friends and colleagues around Harvard and MIT via nasal spray last summer.

A “Perspective” published last week in Science, by Frances Lund and Troy Randall, contemplates the same themes from a post-Delta vantage. “Given the respiratory tropism of the virus,” they write, “it seems surprising that only seven of the nearly 100 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines currently in clinical trials are delivered intranasally.” After walking through the scientific weeds of intranasal vaccination, they conclude, that, for best results, a shot should be followed by a spray.

hook it straight up to my nostrils

Wonder if it naive to assume that this is correlated with the symptom of loss of smell that so many of us experienced.

Gotta say on a pure discomfort level that seems worse to me than getting a jab, will of course do it nonetheless if that's the plan.

Or maybe that's just trauma from the nasal covid tests, I get a spray won't be like that.

i will let a motherfucker do whatever he want to my nose if I don't gotta VID

South Korea said it recorded at least two cases of the new delta-plus coronavirus variant on Tuesday. Here’s what we know about the strain that experts believe is even more transmissible than the delta variant.

Covid marketing new models like the best of them. New! Improved! Free!

at this point I want to castrate everybody in the media for the alarmist way they've reported everything. the truth is scary enough as it is.

i will let a motherfucker do whatever he want to my nose if I don't gotta VID

First-Class, Platinum Perks, SkyComfort and Delta-Plus passengers are now welcome to board the plane at Gate 13.

Meat producer Tyson Foods has announced that it will require all workers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by November 1.

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 4, 2021

at this point I want to castrate everybody in the media for the alarmist way they've reported everything. the truth is scary enough as it is.

Yeah, it's irresponsible at best, flat out dangerous at worst. I've had to talk down more than a few friends and family members who read the headline and first paragraph, freak out and stop reading, without getting to the nuance that is (only sometimes) actually buried in the article somewhere. But gotta get them click first!

fortunately living with my mom when the news comes on I tell her what they get wrong in real time

Meat producer Tyson Foods has announced that it will require all workers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by November 1.

Surprised they're not requiring their entire workforce to be prophylactically pumped full of unnecessary antibiotics

HEADLINE: I want to castrate everyone in the media for the irresponsible way they have reported this!

CLICKTHROUGH: Tempers run high on ILX in 2021, though experts caution that a vanishingly small proportion of media professionals have anything to do with news reporting at all, and a tiny fraction of those are focused on the COVID-19 beat. Moreover, barely half of the news workers involved in COVID analysis, let alone dedicated headline writers or their editors, possess castratable appendages. Our writers stand by their announcements, however, insisting in cable interviews that "the people have a right to know."

xp That's fucking rich because Tyson also made meat packing workers work through COVID without access to distancing or PPE and fired them for missing any shifts/didn't give paid OR unpaid sick time. 1500 people in one plant alone got COVID. Tyson would be better served by giving workers paid time off to get vaccinated or to BE SICK SOMETIMES.

King for a day, would put disclaimer text running under these companies' smiling family tv ads (Walmart, Tyson, Amazon, etc.) as to their reprehensible corporate ethics.

More unvaccinated adults in the United States view the coronavirus vaccine as a greater risk to their health than the disease caused by the virus itself, a poll found.

The Kaiser Family Foundation released a survey Wednesday that found there was a big split between unvaccinated and vaccinated adults in what they perceived as the bigger threat during the pandemic.

Just over half of unvaccinated adults (53 percent) said they believed getting vaccinated posed a bigger risk to their health than getting infected with the coronavirus. “In contrast, an overwhelming majority (88 percent) of vaccinated adults said that getting infected with COVID-19 is a bigger risk to their health than the vaccine,” the report found.

Unvaccinated adults were also much less worried about the more transmissible delta variant and had less confidence in the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines compared with those who got the shots, according to the KFF survey.

The majority of unvaccinated adults (57 percent) also said they thought the news media had “generally exaggerated” the seriousness of the pandemic, compared with 17 percent of vaccinated adults.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/04/kff-poll-coronavirus-vaccine-unvaccinated-americans/

I can start a separate thread if need be, but figured I'd ask here.

For those of you who have flown in the past month or so within the continental US, what are you encountering as COVID prerequisites? Do you have to have a negative test? Do you need evidence of vaccinations? Are you simply asked not to fly if experiencing symptoms?

Since this disaster started I've flown from Maryland to Texas and back several times for family reasons. Nothing onerous has been asked of me; I just need to wear a mask at all times.

In the next 3-4 months I'm set to make four round-trips. Two are to Texas, and other than the fact that the governor of the state is a moron and double-masking will be needed I'm not worried. Of more concern are planned trips to Maine and Connecticut.

So I'm just wondering what travelers are going through.

I can start a separate thread if need be, but figured I'd ask here.

For those of you who have flown in the past month or so within the continental US, what are you encountering as COVID prerequisites? Do you have to have a negative test? Do you need evidence of vaccinations? Are you simply asked not to fly if experiencing symptoms?

lotta nose dick mask styles, no paperwork needed to be shown as us july 9th, people in airports limply trying to enforce mask mandates but most people are well behaved.

let the record show that the act of navigating an airport and airport security, which is the amateur hour of travel, is worse than ever because somehow people forgot they have to take their shoes off etc.

I flew to the East coast a couple weeks ago and it was pretty normal other than masking up for the whole time (plane plus airport). I'm heading to get a test today because I've had a nagging sinus infection-type thing for a couple months, and I've heard people say that might be a symptom of COVID in the vaccinated.

Love getting curiosity gapped by the CDC Director. What does the current data show? https://t.co/YdcV8OPnZG

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) August 5, 2021

If I many play Ned for a moment, hmm...

Don’t threaten me with a good time

A police union official tells me some police officers have threatened to quit if terms of the vaccine mandate are *get vaccinated or be fired.* @8NEWS

— Ben Dennis 8News (@broadcastben_) August 4, 2021

rare win/win situation

As much as I hate anecdata, I have been hearing so many stories lately about vaccinated people getting infected or infected others (including a coworker whose kids all got it from a vaccinated relative, although the vaccinated dad did not), that I just have to believe we are going to see some changes in the vaccine efficacy data, and I would bet that if it's less effective at stopping delta transmission it's also less effective at stopping severe infection or death. Not necessarily like way way less effective, but I have a feeling that's what we're going to find out.

We already did, kinda. But it'll be less of a thing when transmission rates plummet. Which isn't around the corner just yet but...

Follow-up: I don’t have COVID.

Good! I actually have a sinus cold right now that feels like every other sinus cold I've ever had, except I haven't had one in years and I don't recall getting one in August. So I may get a test tomorrow. Kids were also sick for a day but fine now, rapid negative, waiting on PCR.

Great to hear, DJI!

this is the right attitude

My son works at Lowes in MO. Their new Covid policy:

1. If you are vaccinated and get Covid, you will be paid during sick leave
2. If you aren't vaccinated and get Covid, you will be fired.

My son said that the rest of the unvaccinated are finally getting vaccinated.

— Rise of the Alien Queen (@rise_alien) August 4, 2021