outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Love getting curiosity gapped by the CDC Director. What does the current data show? https://t.co/YdcV8OPnZG

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) August 5, 2021

If I many play Ned for a moment, hmm...

Don’t threaten me with a good time

A police union official tells me some police officers have threatened to quit if terms of the vaccine mandate are *get vaccinated or be fired.* @8NEWS

— Ben Dennis 8News (@broadcastben_) August 4, 2021

rare win/win situation

As much as I hate anecdata, I have been hearing so many stories lately about vaccinated people getting infected or infected others (including a coworker whose kids all got it from a vaccinated relative, although the vaccinated dad did not), that I just have to believe we are going to see some changes in the vaccine efficacy data, and I would bet that if it's less effective at stopping delta transmission it's also less effective at stopping severe infection or death. Not necessarily like way way less effective, but I have a feeling that's what we're going to find out.

We already did, kinda. But it'll be less of a thing when transmission rates plummet. Which isn't around the corner just yet but...

Follow-up: I don’t have COVID.

Good! I actually have a sinus cold right now that feels like every other sinus cold I've ever had, except I haven't had one in years and I don't recall getting one in August. So I may get a test tomorrow. Kids were also sick for a day but fine now, rapid negative, waiting on PCR.

Great to hear, DJI!

this is the right attitude

My son works at Lowes in MO. Their new Covid policy:

1. If you are vaccinated and get Covid, you will be paid during sick leave
2. If you aren't vaccinated and get Covid, you will be fired.

My son said that the rest of the unvaccinated are finally getting vaccinated.

— Rise of the Alien Queen (@rise_alien) August 4, 2021

^ makes you think

wondering what the typical sick leave policy is for lowes employees, outside of covid

"don't"

Slap back:

Lowe’s does not terminate employees for contracting COVID-19, regardless of vaccination status, nor do we make sick pay determinations based on vaccination status.

— Lowe's (@Lowes) August 5, 2021

i noticed the local Co-Op's signs say 'please feel free to wear a mask' which is some weak sauce.

80% weren't this morning, based on a sample size of ~10

On Thursday, the Texas Education Agency released new guidance for schools on how to handle positive COVID-19 cases.

More: https://t.co/SJose7KGHL pic.twitter.com/yo49G9VRHA

— WFAA (@wfaa) August 5, 2021

.

So at what point do we start prosecuting people for negligent homicide, is what I wanna know.

I did see some more details (below) and it's not quite as bad as it looks. I mean, it's still totally shitty and downright pathological, but (incredibly) it could be worse, given how hard Abbott is pushing back against ... anything.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/education/schools/texas-schools-children-covid19/269-6112e063-9901-4cfd-ab69-9d4a689cd8f2

As much as I hate anecdata, I have been hearing so many stories lately about vaccinated people getting infected or infected others (including a coworker whose kids all got it from a vaccinated relative, although the vaccinated dad did not), that I just have to believe we are going to see some changes in the vaccine efficacy data, and I would bet that if it's less effective at stopping delta transmission it's also less effective at stopping severe infection or death. Not necessarily like way way less effective, but I have a feeling that's what we're going to find out.

I'm with you on this, even though I know the dangers of anecdotal data. A few weeks ago it felt like every third or fourth person I spoke with or interacted with knew someone in their family, or a close friend, with a breakthrough infection. This week I'd say it's closer to 80% and every time I open Twitter, another person I follow is reporting being positive (and even sick!) despite being fully vaccinated. There just feels like a huge disconnect between the reporting and what I'm hearing irl.

Honestly if delta is as contagious as it seems then contact tracing is going to be useless, fighting the last war.

Hopefully the early signs that it's not as deadly/virulent turn out true.

Wallensky once again being criticized for her messaging. She now says vaccines don't stop Delta transmission at all. That is def not the current consensus outside the CDC

That isn’t really correct. They *may* be less effective at preventing transmission of delta compared to other variants. We should wear masks to be cautious. Some vaccinated people who get infected may be able to transmit. We don’t know how often this happens & need more research.

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) August 6, 2021

Wallensky seems kind of bad at messaging, which is sort of her one job isn't it?

But also, the word "prevent" causes a lot of problems because it means two different things in the vaccination context -- prevent entirely or reduce the odds. So you can say "vaccine doesn't prevent transmission" meaning it's still possible to transmit or "vaccines prevent transmission" meaning vaccines still reduce transmission/

Wallensky seems kind of bad at messaging, which is sort of her one job isn't it?

I mean the new CDC is fine at the CDC’s 0th job (being broadly right about the science), which is more than you can say about the CDC under trump. But the 1st job, communicating, they are still terrible at.

Isn't there anyone who can keep her from speaking publicly, for the love of christ? This is only about the fourth time she's pulled this kind of shit.

we're meeting up at The Mighty around 11 p.m. She's buying.

Really good interview.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/prof-francois-balloux-the-pandemic-has-created-a-market-for-gloom-and-doom?

Wallensky seems kind of bad at messaging, which is sort of her one job isn't it?

no

That interview was indeed good, thanks.

Reassuring:

Another concern is a mutation that enables the virus to “escape” the vaccines…

Over two million viral samples have been sequenced, and we’ve probably already seen all the mutations that are technically possible. From our observations, we know that vaccine escape will not appear after one or two mutations – it will require an accumulation giving rise to the right combination. We will not go from one day everyone being protected to everyone being vulnerable the next. We will have time to update the vaccines.

Also, while a vaccine-escape variant would indeed be able to infect vaccinated people far more easily, it would not nullify the protection against severe disease and death provided by the vaccine and prior infection.

That's also what Angela Rasmussen has been screaming

the market for doom and gloom has been red hot since at least 1994, tracking right along with the rise of the internet rather closely

New Orleans JazzFest postponed to April 2022.

The vaccines not being tested for transmissibility seems like one of those inevitable outcomes of the urgency to get this done. Presumably some massively-funded rounds of research are gearing up right now to try to address that. If the vaccines reduce severity and infection rates, then they're still important until better ones get here.

Meanwhile, I found this pretty sobering:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/too-many-people-are-dying-of-covid-19-right-now.html

Partly because I remembered the previous much rosier (in retrospect) article just a few weeks ago:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/07/how-bad-could-the-delta-variant-get.html

i think the thing we've learned is forecasting this pandemic is next to impossible. pessimistic predictions at least have the benefit of leading to action to mitigate the spread and letting people know what could happen.

but far too often we've underestimated this thing (myself included)

yup

it's just like hurricane forecasting.

hurricane forecasts tell a vast expanse of civilians they might get a dangerous storm and it might hit in the next 5 days, and what they could expect. that allows these civilians to evacuate if they're in a location that might be a severe risk.

except instead of thanking the forecasters, if the storm misses the civilians after all, said civilians scream and yell and talk about how nobody knows what they're talking about, whereas had they taken a direct hit they'd be thankful af.

it's the advantage/disadvantage of empathy. the advantage is in understanding what's really happening and what could happen. the disadvantage is having to feel the emotions associated with it

god, that gloomy article was written by Eric Topol, one of my favorite scientists to follow. not exactly a 'doomposter' - he had been a lot more optimistic a while back. it matches the tone of his Tweets - he's scared.

Yeah that was one of the most dispiriting things I’ve read

Okay, fair enough, but look at Topol's latest tweet.

Reassuring. Current data from San Diego County, California's 2nd largest, which tracks vaccinated status and vaccine for new cases, ~58% total population vaccinated (national 50%).https://t.co/xDxRRMJL5p
But March -> June are before Delta pic.twitter.com/yityL7Vp3R

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 8, 2021

I guess he says "reassuring," but then says "but."

good night!

It seems that, even from the more temperate voices, we get bad news just as often as reassuring news at this point. For me and most people in my orbit, it feels bleak as fuck. We canceled our trip to see family in Michigan, my sister canceled my nephew’s outdoor birthday party, people are pulling back and (essentially) locking in again for a long fall and winter. It’s hard to feel hopeful, that’s for sure.

Don't know if I'd go so far as locking down and not seeing people outside, if only because we vaccinated are not where we were a year ago or even January.

There are so many factors not traceable in the data to figure out why delta is acting as it is. We can trace things like vaccination rates county-by-county, but not elective population behaviors, like masking or exposing oneself in crowds & indoor settings. We can probably overlay some of the co-morbities in a various regional populations, but not with much granularity. It's the sort of statistical sloshing that makes things very hard to model.