.
― No Particular Place to POLL (James Redd and the Blecchs), Friday, 6 August 2021 12:50 (two years ago) link
So at what point do we start prosecuting people for negligent homicide, is what I wanna know.
― Marty J. Bilge (Old Lunch), Friday, 6 August 2021 12:52 (two years ago) link
I did see some more details (below) and it's not quite as bad as it looks. I mean, it's still totally shitty and downright pathological, but (incredibly) it could be worse, given how hard Abbott is pushing back against ... anything.
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/education/schools/texas-schools-children-covid19/269-6112e063-9901-4cfd-ab69-9d4a689cd8f2
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 6 August 2021 13:12 (two years ago) link
As much as I hate anecdata, I have been hearing so many stories lately about vaccinated people getting infected or infected others (including a coworker whose kids all got it from a vaccinated relative, although the vaccinated dad did not), that I just have to believe we are going to see some changes in the vaccine efficacy data, and I would bet that if it's less effective at stopping delta transmission it's also less effective at stopping severe infection or death. Not necessarily like way way less effective, but I have a feeling that's what we're going to find out.
I'm with you on this, even though I know the dangers of anecdotal data. A few weeks ago it felt like every third or fourth person I spoke with or interacted with knew someone in their family, or a close friend, with a breakthrough infection. This week I'd say it's closer to 80% and every time I open Twitter, another person I follow is reporting being positive (and even sick!) despite being fully vaccinated. There just feels like a huge disconnect between the reporting and what I'm hearing irl.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 6 August 2021 14:26 (two years ago) link
Honestly if delta is as contagious as it seems then contact tracing is going to be useless, fighting the last war.
Hopefully the early signs that it's not as deadly/virulent turn out true.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Friday, 6 August 2021 16:38 (two years ago) link
Wallensky once again being criticized for her messaging. She now says vaccines don't stop Delta transmission at all. That is def not the current consensus outside the CDC
That isn’t really correct. They *may* be less effective at preventing transmission of delta compared to other variants. We should wear masks to be cautious. Some vaccinated people who get infected may be able to transmit. We don’t know how often this happens & need more research.— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) August 6, 2021
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Saturday, 7 August 2021 01:42 (two years ago) link
Wallensky seems kind of bad at messaging, which is sort of her one job isn't it?
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Saturday, 7 August 2021 01:43 (two years ago) link
But also, the word "prevent" causes a lot of problems because it means two different things in the vaccination context -- prevent entirely or reduce the odds. So you can say "vaccine doesn't prevent transmission" meaning it's still possible to transmit or "vaccines prevent transmission" meaning vaccines still reduce transmission/
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Saturday, 7 August 2021 01:44 (two years ago) link
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, 7 August 2021 02:19 (two years ago) link
I mean the new CDC is fine at the CDC’s 0th job (being broadly right about the science), which is more than you can say about the CDC under trump. But the 1st job, communicating, they are still terrible at.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, 7 August 2021 02:21 (two years ago) link
Isn't there anyone who can keep her from speaking publicly, for the love of christ? This is only about the fourth time she's pulled this kind of shit.
― Marty J. Bilge (Old Lunch), Saturday, 7 August 2021 02:26 (two years ago) link
we're meeting up at The Mighty around 11 p.m. She's buying.
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 7 August 2021 02:34 (two years ago) link
Really good interview.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/prof-francois-balloux-the-pandemic-has-created-a-market-for-gloom-and-doom?
― xyzzzz__, Saturday, 7 August 2021 16:14 (two years ago) link
no
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Saturday, 7 August 2021 16:25 (two years ago) link
That interview was indeed good, thanks.
― No Particular Place to POLL (James Redd and the Blecchs), Saturday, 7 August 2021 17:33 (two years ago) link
Reassuring:
Another concern is a mutation that enables the virus to “escape” the vaccines…
Over two million viral samples have been sequenced, and we’ve probably already seen all the mutations that are technically possible. From our observations, we know that vaccine escape will not appear after one or two mutations – it will require an accumulation giving rise to the right combination. We will not go from one day everyone being protected to everyone being vulnerable the next. We will have time to update the vaccines.
Also, while a vaccine-escape variant would indeed be able to infect vaccinated people far more easily, it would not nullify the protection against severe disease and death provided by the vaccine and prior infection.
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 7 August 2021 18:06 (two years ago) link
That's also what Angela Rasmussen has been screaming
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Saturday, 7 August 2021 18:23 (two years ago) link
the market for doom and gloom has been red hot since at least 1994, tracking right along with the rise of the internet rather closely
― it is to laugh, like so, ha! (Aimless), Saturday, 7 August 2021 18:55 (two years ago) link
New Orleans JazzFest postponed to April 2022.
― ... (Eazy), Monday, 9 August 2021 00:25 (two years ago) link
The vaccines not being tested for transmissibility seems like one of those inevitable outcomes of the urgency to get this done. Presumably some massively-funded rounds of research are gearing up right now to try to address that. If the vaccines reduce severity and infection rates, then they're still important until better ones get here.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 00:29 (two years ago) link
Meanwhile, I found this pretty sobering:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/too-many-people-are-dying-of-covid-19-right-now.html
Partly because I remembered the previous much rosier (in retrospect) article just a few weeks ago:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/07/how-bad-could-the-delta-variant-get.html
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 00:32 (two years ago) link
i think the thing we've learned is forecasting this pandemic is next to impossible. pessimistic predictions at least have the benefit of leading to action to mitigate the spread and letting people know what could happen.
but far too often we've underestimated this thing (myself included)
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 00:48 (two years ago) link
yup
― No Particular Place to POLL (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 9 August 2021 01:06 (two years ago) link
it's just like hurricane forecasting.
hurricane forecasts tell a vast expanse of civilians they might get a dangerous storm and it might hit in the next 5 days, and what they could expect. that allows these civilians to evacuate if they're in a location that might be a severe risk.
except instead of thanking the forecasters, if the storm misses the civilians after all, said civilians scream and yell and talk about how nobody knows what they're talking about, whereas had they taken a direct hit they'd be thankful af.
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 01:19 (two years ago) link
it's the advantage/disadvantage of empathy. the advantage is in understanding what's really happening and what could happen. the disadvantage is having to feel the emotions associated with it
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Monday, 9 August 2021 01:41 (two years ago) link
god, that gloomy article was written by Eric Topol, one of my favorite scientists to follow. not exactly a 'doomposter' - he had been a lot more optimistic a while back. it matches the tone of his Tweets - he's scared.
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 01:58 (two years ago) link
Yeah that was one of the most dispiriting things I’ve read
― covidsbundlertanze op. 6 (Jon not Jon), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:01 (two years ago) link
Okay, fair enough, but look at Topol's latest tweet.
― No Particular Place to POLL (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:05 (two years ago) link
Reassuring. Current data from San Diego County, California's 2nd largest, which tracks vaccinated status and vaccine for new cases, ~58% total population vaccinated (national 50%).https://t.co/xDxRRMJL5pBut March -> June are before Delta pic.twitter.com/yityL7Vp3R— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 8, 2021
I guess he says "reassuring," but then says "but."
― No Particular Place to POLL (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:06 (two years ago) link
good night!
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:07 (two years ago) link
It seems that, even from the more temperate voices, we get bad news just as often as reassuring news at this point. For me and most people in my orbit, it feels bleak as fuck. We canceled our trip to see family in Michigan, my sister canceled my nephew’s outdoor birthday party, people are pulling back and (essentially) locking in again for a long fall and winter. It’s hard to feel hopeful, that’s for sure.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:21 (two years ago) link
Don't know if I'd go so far as locking down and not seeing people outside, if only because we vaccinated are not where we were a year ago or even January.
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:27 (two years ago) link
There are so many factors not traceable in the data to figure out why delta is acting as it is. We can trace things like vaccination rates county-by-county, but not elective population behaviors, like masking or exposing oneself in crowds & indoor settings. We can probably overlay some of the co-morbities in a various regional populations, but not with much granularity. It's the sort of statistical sloshing that makes things very hard to model.
― it is to laugh, like so, ha! (Aimless), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:27 (two years ago) link
like, if you have an outdoor vacation with jabbed folks I see no reason to cancel it if you're careful
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:28 (two years ago) link
It’s less about the jabbed folks, it’s that we were all going to meet up in the UP for a long weekend. My father in law is fully vaxxed, but he (fairly!) got spooked and bailed, which just sort of became the first domino to fall and everything basically fell apart from there. We may end up driving up to spend a quiet day with him, but that’s about it.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:31 (two years ago) link
With him, at his house instead of the UP, that is.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 9 August 2021 02:32 (two years ago) link
I feel lucky we managed to have our planned fully-vaxxed family get together the 2nd week of July. Anything later I'm sure some people wouldn't have wanted to do it.
We had dinner indoors at a restaurant tonight, because we had made the reservation weeks ago and had been looking forward to it. But we agreed that's it for us indoors until further notice. Sad.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 03:16 (two years ago) link
Yeah, last week we went to the beach with my wife's family in two rented houses, 20+ of us, all vaccinated bar two children under the age of 5. We enjoyed it, it was great to see everyone in person again, in some cases, for the first time since Thanksgiving 2019, but definitely had very low levels of background anxiety the entire time. My wife and I have agreed that was the last indoor activity with people in a while, bar a trip to the Berkshire's with another couple that have been even more quarantined than us.
I have zero concern about being unmasked at normal distanced outdoor activity such as a backyard party.
― Carlos Santana & Mahavishnu Rob Thomas (PBKR), Monday, 9 August 2021 12:17 (two years ago) link
tweet that beautifully sums up the state of COVID-19 on Twitter:
How it started. How it’s going.#WearAMask #StopMansplaining pic.twitter.com/Z1opBhoztj— Qasim Rashid, Esq. (@QasimRashid) August 9, 2021
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 13:42 (two years ago) link
also!
A small but very interesting study on breakthrough infections (post 1 or 2 mRNA vaccine doses). Breakthrough infections became PCR negative quickly and in asymptomatic cases, no culturable virus could be recovered (all alpha variant). https://t.co/I5Nokmnya4— Dr CJ Houldcroft 🕷️ (@DrCJ_Houldcroft) August 9, 2021
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 13:45 (two years ago) link
(sadly, all alpha variant)
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 13:46 (two years ago) link
also ERic Topol after that article was published - thinks he knows why the ratio is fucked up in the US
Agree. This became clear to me in subsequently reviewing the marked reduction in US testing and how poor it is (<1/5) compared to the reference countries UK and Israel that I discussed w/ Davidhttps://t.co/v7NEHWrvTy— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 8, 2021
― making splashes at Dan Flashes (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 13:48 (two years ago) link
That does make sense. Does not reduce our actual hospitalization numbers though.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:02 (two years ago) link
I know this isn't the apolitical thread, but I'm a little aghast that people are cancelling small indoor get-togethers with family and friends who are also vaxxed. Everyone has their own ideas and thresholds for safety, and I respect that— for example, I met with some friends and their toddler the other afternoon on their back porch, which was lovely despite the heat.
But I'm not spending another 6+ months not seeing my parents or friends for dinner at our places of residence— it's simply not happening.
― heyy nineteen, that's john belushi (the table is the table), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:04 (two years ago) link
xpost - nope. they're still way higher than in the UK, presumably due to how less vaxxed we are.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:07 (two years ago) link
I'm in a similar position, which I suppose readers were able to figure out from my comments last night. Unless a lockdown were to happen again -- not bloody happening -- I'm not shutting in again. I'm single and have no children, though.
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:09 (two years ago) link
xpost - Well, sure, but there's a difference between going to visit family in their houses, in small groups, than all of us getting together somewhere that requires travel for all of us and unavoidably mixing in with a lot of other people in an area less heavily vaxxed (it's the latter that essentially undid our planned family gathering).
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:09 (two years ago) link
This may depend on your local climate, but we have another 3 months at least where outdoor socializing will be easy, so I don't think we'll have to give up too much social life in the near term. I certainly would still have dinner at a friend's house. I don't know if I'd go to a hundred-person basement kegger, but it's been a few decades since I was invited to such a thing. And I just told my poker circle I'm out of in-person games for now — we have up to 10 people crammed into a tiny room with limited ventilation, and the host of the game is in a demographic risk group, so I don't feel totally comfortable there (much as I enjoyed the game's in-person return).
But yeah, there's going to a lot of guesswork for all of us, I don't think anyone vaxxed who's being reasonable about it should be guilted for their choices, there are so many factors.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:11 (two years ago) link
I have four plane round trips planned for the next few months, two of which are essential for family reasons, wish me luck
― Legalize Suburban Benches (Raymond Cummings), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:15 (two years ago) link