outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Whoops just fell and broke my leg in seven places, good thing I have an immune system.

I had a friend who used to drive right over potholes, saying "that's what the suspension is for."

Got the news this morning that an IT guy where I used to work died yesterday from the delta variant. 50ish, abhorrent political views, don't want to speculate on his vax status - he went into the hospital on the 13th.

(i tried scrolling to see if this was shared already but it looks like it hasn't. sorry if it has)

oh boy. anti-vaxxers are going to have a field day with this one:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-no-infection-parties

The new analysis relies on the database of Maccabi Healthcare Services, which enrolls about 2.5 million Israelis. The study, led by Tal Patalon and Sivan Gazit at KSM, the system’s research and innovation arm, found in two analyses that people who were vaccinated in January and February were, in June, July, and the first half of August, six to 13 times more likely to get infected than unvaccinated people who were previously infected with the coronavirus. In one analysis, comparing more than 32,000 people in the health system, the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 was 27 times higher among the vaccinated, and the risk of hospitalization eight times higher.

“The differences are huge,” says Thålin, although she cautions that the numbers for infections and other events analyzed for the comparisons were “small.” For instance, the higher hospitalization rate in the 32,000-person analysis was based on just eight hospitalizations in a vaccinated group and one in a previously infected group. And the 13-fold increased risk of infection in the same analysis was based on just 238 infections in the vaccinated population, less than 1.5% of the more than 16,000 people, versus 19 reinfections among a similar number of people who once had SARS-CoV-2.

No one in the study who got a new SARS-CoV-2 infection died—which prevented a comparison of death rates but is a clear sign that vaccines still offer a formidable shield against serious disease, even if not as good as natural immunity. Moreover, natural immunity is far from perfect. Although reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 are rare, and often asymptomatic or mild, they can be severe.

i included that last paragraph as, let's say, to provide more context. but as a non-expert, it seems pretty clear to me that this is starting to be endemic.

from what i can gather:

we all have or will get some amount of covid virus load in our lifetime. each person may require different amounts of virus load to feel/get sick, which means we may all have some level of "immunity" or "protection" due to our body fighting off different amounts of virus loads. i feel like this may be related to asymptomatic cases, which would make sense to me (not that this should mean much to anyone)

i say anti-vaxxers are going to have a field day because the whole "textbook" immunity is what they were saying. i'm not for politicizing getting vaccinated, but this may fuel more of the politicizing, as right wing/conservatives/republicans have been saying this since the beginning of the pandemic

personally, if all this is true and i wasn't vaccinated, i would still prefer the first time i'm exposed to covid to be through a vaccine, even though it may not offer more immunity from re-infection than getting covid. but i feel like there will still be a lot of people who will not see it that way

but this may fuel more of the politicizing

oh dear. i hope this doesn't get politicized

would still prefer the first time i'm exposed to covid to be through a vaccine

nb: the mRNA vaccines do not expose you to covid

just to save the response and then my dumbass snarky response: yes, we all realize it's already politicized, but no, we do not yet all realize that it's been politicized to the 100% level. it physically cannot be more politicized. the atoms of political belief cannot be any more solid than they already are. it is dense and total

In one analysis, comparing more than 32,000 people in the health system, the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 was 27 times higher among the vaccinated, and the risk of hospitalization eight times higher.

ok

the higher hospitalization rate in the 32,000-person analysis was based on just eight hospitalizations in a vaccinated group and one in a previously infected group.

ok

vaccines don’t “expose you to covid” btw

nb: the mRNA vaccines do not expose you to covid

― it is to laugh, like so, ha! (Aimless), Friday, August 27, 2021 12:24 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

ya, i know. i just didn't know how to articulate this...i mean, if i can get immunity from getting covid or getting vaccinated, i'd rather be vaccinated, even though getting vaccinated doesn't offer as much protection from getting reinfected.

technically, i guess it would be first exposure to the spike protein, which is shared by both covid and the vaccine

but i feel like there will still be a lot of people who will not see it that way

It would really be a shame if these people die of covid.

lol

well, that's the thing. they are more likely to have more protection than you is the irony, lol

want a glimpse of hell?

fine with me if people get vacced...I am gd with my decision...the vacc roll out in IL Jan (1a) had to be over 65...dad was not...second rollout 1b notification went out Jan 28th (thurs)to those registered and then go get vacced...he had mild cold starting following Tues SO even if he had wanted vacc which he didn't it would have been too late BUT early treatment if had been televised like WASH HANDS SOCIAL DISTANCE AND WEAR MASK would have saved his life if I would have known also thousands of others before vacc came out...I don't know who was and still is behind the hush on early treatments but they are evil wicked sinister killers

well, that's the thing. they are more likely to have more protection than you is the irony, lol

― Punster McPunisher, Friday, August 27, 2021 2:52 PM (seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Well the other thing is that those strident anti-vaxxers who miraculously manage to tiptoe through the COVID raindrops unscathed are going to subsequently feel so completely immortal and will remain just as pigheaded and stupid and (let's be honest) clearly ready to stop being alive as they were before (if not intensely moreso) that a sizable number of them will almost certainly still wind up dying prematurely of something stupid and preventable. These are not people built for longevity.

well, that's the thing. they are more likely to have more protection than you is the irony, lol

The dead ones will have the most protection of all. lol!1!!!111111!1111

Fuck out of here with this shit.

BREAKING Florida Weekly DOH Report

Positive rate down to 16.8%
Inferred cases for tomorrow: 22,514
Deaths: 1,727 is new RECORD
Weekly vaccinations continue to climb

Too many more deaths to come. But this is consistent with plateau (even some improvement) from VERY high levels. https://t.co/l5W4yLkWq3 pic.twitter.com/p9FQ3xki3Y

— (((Howard Forman))) (@thehowie) August 27, 2021

read the whole thread though - almost 32% of this week's cases were kids 19 and younger o_O

Hmm, really, you surprise me with this news.

Virginia's Liberty University Announces Campus-Wide Quarantine amid Rise in COVID Cases https://t.co/fyjGIcrfkG

— DonnaCassata (@DonnaCassata) August 28, 2021

Well blow me down

Thought they believed in freedom down there

A friend and I wondered if we were seeing the usual #Floridafraud with the high number of Miami-Dade County vaccinations. How can so many hospitalizations keep happening when our overall jab rate is the best in the state and ranks with some northeastern US counties? He theorizes we're getting too many people flying in and making up an address to get jabbed.

I can't speak for Miami Dade, but a lot of the people in our metro hospitals here are not necessarily from the city/county but from outlying (less vaccinated) areas.

What’s the benefit of making up an address for the jab? Not sure I follow that logic.

I think Tipsy's explanation makes more sense than Alfred's friend's.

If you come from overseas, there’s been a lot of vaccine tourism into the US.

i know some older folks vacationing around neighboring states to get 3rd and 4th shots, like, on whims

The article buries the lede but this tweet sums it up

30-year-old leader of a prominent anti-mask, anti-vax organization got Covid, tried to treat it with horse paste, and is now dead. he leaves behind 3 kids and a pregnant wife https://t.co/KCt5EanigQ

— ryan cooper (@ryanlcooper) August 28, 2021

Wait, so they made paste out of a 30-year old horse that died of Covid? I thought that's what they do with old horses.

rest in pieces

p sure that article was upthred (or on the other thred)

I think it was updated with " ... and now he's dead."

Epitaph: 'He died as he lived: worm-free.'

Well frickin' THAT took long enough

pic.twitter.com/inNDecBCdv

— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) August 28, 2021

The damage done

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-08-28/la-me-rural-california-covid-surge-vaccinations-lag

Such genius

Gilles Simon on vaccination:

“Basically, I really did not want to. I am not very afraid of Covid. My basic philosophy is: If you are afraid of it, you vaccinate, otherwise , you don’t”

Today: *Simon’s coach tests positive for COVID, meaning Gilles must withdraw*

…

— Olly 🎾🇬🇧 (@Olly_2021) August 28, 2021

flagged Punisher's posts for flagrant misinformation, wtf

What’s the benefit of making up an address for the jab? Not sure I follow that logic.

― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0)

If you travel to a county like mine with significant tourism from South and Central America but with low vaccination rates, you might make up an address for the sake of a jab; we don't verify addresses if CVS/Walgreens/Publix/etc do the vaccinating.

Marc Bernier just died. https://t.co/goC0IJg5CI

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) August 29, 2021

Going to be a lot of openings in regional right wing talk radio this fall.

flagged Punisher's posts for flagrant misinformation, wtf

― sleeve, Saturday, August 28, 2021 6:28 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

not that i should be held to such scrutiny and people don't even read my posts and go by what i say, since i'm not a virologist or a biologist, but here are the articles i'm basing what i said on:

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-choose-lead-mrna-vaccine-candidate-0

BNT162b2, which recently received U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Fast Track designation, encodes an optimized SARS-CoV-2 full length spike glycoprotein (S), which is the target of virus neutralizing antibodies.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.576622/full

Like other coronaviruses, the SARS-CoV-2 genome encodes spike (S) glycoproteins, which protrude from the surface of mature virions. The S glycoprotein plays essential roles in virus attachment, fusion and entry into the host cell. Surface location of the S glycoprotein renders it a direct target for host immune responses, making it the main target of neutralizing antibodies. In the light of its crucial roles in viral infection and adaptive immunity, the S protein is the focus of most vaccine strategies as well as therapeutic interventions.

believe it or not, i am also not a virologist or a biologist.

Is it better to gain immunity through exposure to COVID-19 or through a vaccine?

With some viruses, such as chicken pox, being infected with the virus itself grants stronger immune protection than the chicken pox vaccine; however, in those cases, you then have to deal with all the complications of having the virus. When it comes to COVID-19, it’s really hard to know whether being exposed to the virus is more protective of future infection than the vaccine, simply because we don’t know the SARS-CoV-2 virus well enough yet.

With natural immunity, which is the protection we get after being infected with a virus, the immune response can be variable. For example: the number of antibodies your body produces may depend on how much of the virus you’re exposed to. And there is likely beneficial variation in the types of antibodies being produced. The vaccinations currently available in the U.S. have been shown to effectively stimulate antibodies against the virus’ spike protein. New vaccines are being created that make antibodies to other parts of the virus as well. Both immunity from natural infection and vaccination stimulate a T-cell response that will hopefully provide you with protection from the virus for a longer time.

While it’s possible some people may have a higher antibody response after a natural infection than they would after vaccination, we’re still learning about this new virus, and we don’t know how protective natural immunity really is, especially when there is such a continuum of different types of infections. We don’t have clear data on how antibody responses from a mild infection compare to a severe infection, or how protective those antibody responses are.

On the other hand, we do know that the vaccine is very protective. In most people, getting vaccinated generates a lot of antibodies. So far, the vaccines appear to be incredibly effective, especially when it comes to preventing severe infections, hospitalizations and death.

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/do-i-need-a-vaccine-if-i-had-covid

It's weird that the people who stump for "natural immunity" are the same ones who think COVID is an engineered bioweapon

Anyway, my stats friends are very skeptical of the effect size claimed by that paper, but it's certainly not implausible that immunity following infection could be better and longer-lasting than we expected (just as the immunity conferred by the vaccine has been better than we could have reasonably expected!) and if so that's awesome news because it means less death and suffering down the line, especially in places where vaccines remain scarce

But no, don't intentionally give yourself COVID, that would be extremely dumb

karl malone, sorry, was that directed at me? that article is from may. and it repeats pretty much all articles that suggest being conservative with your health in the face of an unknown

the study from israel on the sciencemag.org site was released last week and it's an analysis of 32,000 people

yeah, i saw yr links to the mRNA stuff and they were from last year, but i was missing your point, sorry.

i still think the conclusions seem to be based off of limited info. 32,000 people, sure, finding that "the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 was 27 times higher among the vaccinated, and the risk of hospitalization eight times higher." but also, "the higher hospitalization rate in the 32,000-person analysis was based on just eight hospitalizations in a vaccinated group and one in a previously infected group."

but i don't know. like eephus is saying, it wouldn't be that surprising if infection ultimately provided more protection than a vaccine.

it's hard not to look at it and immediately feel bleak, though. because we can say to ourselves "yes, but obviously don't get infected on purpose, and you will have even more protection if you get a vaccine as well as infection", and you can read a sciencemag article making the same points and move on with your day. but yeah, that translates to a red state person as "scientists just said infection is better than the vaccine. ain't nothing you can do to prevent covid, it just wipes out the weak"

but there's nothing i can do about that (points to red state people), and there's nothing i can do about that (points to even-keeled discussion in sciencemag and among normal people) and there's nothing i can do about that (all the dead people everywhere), so

there IS actual value in knowing whether natural infection provides better immunity than vaccination. the problem isn't that, it's that it's being used to dissuade people from getting the vaccine like it's unnecessary, even though most people agree that even if the former theory is true, getting naturally infected AND vaxxed would provide more protection and be the responsible thing to do.

that being said....the paperi s controversial for a reason

for sure, neanderthal.

here's the thing. there is also reason to believe immunity through natural infection may not last long or as long as through the vaccine because of the different numbers in the UK

we were in this catch-22 where we wanted to vaccinate to avoid the spread, but at the same time, everyone that got jabbed was pretty much participating in an experiment in a pseudo clinical trial gone wrong, because different people were being given different vaccines, mixing and matching, and most people in an actual blind phase 3 clinical trial all ended up getting vaccinated, so now we have to wait longer to find out all this information