outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

lol xp

yeah, PCR FPR is a lot less than 1%

LF FPR is like 2% or something.

i guess the problem is when you have 30 kids without covid taking a LF test with a FPR of 2%. the probability that at least one of them gets a false positive is 1 - (1-0.02)^30 = 55%.

if the rule is "if just one kid tests positive the entire class must isolate" then yeah that's de facto "schools are closed now" and i can see the concern.

but would that be the rule if the US actually started testing people routinely? it's not how it's done in the UK, which i generally assume is more aggressive about this.

mbison otm.

So my son's district is starting salvia based testing next week, I honestly haven't yet had a chance to dig in too deeply wrt how that compares to FPR with other methods.

It's what we used at my university until July, after which we switched to the nasal PCRs.

very jealous that I wasn't given salvia when I was in school, would've made it so much more entertaining

lol

We saw a big printed sign in front of a testing facility the other day announcing that they were now doing salvia testing. Kinda wanted to pop in and give them a hand.

Yeah my work still uses the saliva testing (sadly not salvia), but I haven't had to have it done since I've been back.

just reading the word "salvia" sends a chill down my spine

Can't stress how wild the ivermectin Facebook groups have become. So many people insisting to each other to never go to an ER, in part because they might not get ivermectin, but sometimes because they fear nurses are killing them on purpose "for the insurance money."

— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) September 13, 2021

I would get a job as a nurse in an ER if I could kill an anti-vaxxer for insurance money

Well, yeah.

My husband would be so rich.

They want you to get vaccinated for the Met. if I get vaccinated it won’t for the Met. It’ll be once I feel I’ve done enough research. I’m working on that now. In the meantime my loves, be safe. Wear the mask with 2 strings that grips your head & face. Not that loose one 🙏♥️

— Nicki Minaj (@NICKIMINAJ) September 13, 2021

"research"

Back in the lab again.

My cousin in Trinidad won’t get the vaccine cuz his friend got it & became impotent. His testicles became swollen. His friend was weeks away from getting married, now the girl called off the wedding. So just pray on it & make sure you’re comfortable with ur decision, not bullied

— Nicki Minaj (@NICKIMINAJ) September 13, 2021

the girl sounds nice, too bad he couldn't marry her because of his testicles

"Oh, my, god, Nicki, look at his balls. They are so big. He looks like one of those rap girl's boyfriends. I mean, his balls, they're just so big. Ugh, I can't believe they're both just so round. They're like out there, I mean, ugh, gross."

— Drew Magary (@drewmagary) September 13, 2021

nicki hun wtf are you doing

-10k cases in the UK today compared to last week when a surge due to schools reopening was meant to be happening.

Think it's time to say that bar stuff like international travel or a new variant like Delta the pandemic will be over in the UK by Xmas.

Why not just say it's over now, lots of people have and it's a fun + popular opinion

Ok

merry xmas (pandemic is over, if you want it)

not taking sides; i don't know the UK pandemic situation right now. just wanted to make sure the obligatory music pun was there

xyzzzz I'm not sure there's been time for transmission + positive tests + quarantining to have happened? They've only been back to school for like 5-7 days.

Sim-ply
Go-orging
On all the ivectermin

xpost

Fair enough thought it was 10+ days xxp

Like I know people whose kids didn't go back until this past Wednesday.

That said, testing of every secondary school child (whose parents consented - I haven't seen stats on this) before actually entering a classroom has probably made a difference!

the number of daily deaths in the UK is still in triple figures.

and they've just been on the telly setting forward their autumn / winter preparations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58560031

I didn't think I was necessarily taking sides either except I guess I am taking the 'the predictive power of human beings with respect to anything concerning the COVID-19 pandemic has proven to be magnificently shitty' side

If the case numbers keep going down, so will hospitalisations and deaths too xp

In terms of government announcements that's just to look like being on the safe side. Hospitalisations and deaths are at like 1/5 of the early year peak. There won't be another lockdown unless there is a new variant that changes this.

We must be just about out of Greek letters at this point so I assume the variants are about done.

So Hebrew letters then, like Cantor dust etc?

We must be just about out of Greek letters at this point so I assume the variants are about done.

― Marty J. Bilge (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 14 September 2021 bookmarkflaglink

Good to see you are thinking about this.

what I was saying back during Alpha in the US, that there are some people who are never going to 'trust' that things are much safer now because of just how traumatic this pandemic has been....I feel like that's like 10 times as true now.

people are already accusing some of the leading stats guys of being 'liars' when they post analysis showing a drop in cases, I've had friends chastise me for downplaying the pandemic (wtf).

however I have learned I am capable of enduring way more than I ever thought of mentally speaking. I would have assumed I'd have ODed on my SSRIs by now if you told me back in 2019 what was coming

That's a good point Neanderthal, I think people are also just skeptical of "good" turns at this point and just ready for another shoe to drop. Without getting into any blame game, I really think the Delta variant pulled the rug out from under a lot of people this summer. Some of the folks I know irl who navigated the pandemic really well, from a mental health standpoint, are really, really struggling right now because they (understandably, to a great degree) bought into the vaccination campaign marking a major turnaround point. Not that I think people should be dismissive of real, verifiable data because it "feels off", but I do get people being really hesitant to embrace positive trends after this summer.

Totally. My husband hasn't seen his family in Hawai'i except for a quick two-day visit in 2019, we were planning on going this Christmas...no dice. My parents' plans? No dice. It's all been thrown to shit, I want to make plans for a tour when my next book comes out in spring 2022, and I'm not doing so until the absolute last minute...

I've also put various plans and activities on hold that I was jumping into in the spring, it's very frustrating and demoralizing. I'm going to stick with this, but I also realize that if I just said fuck it and did what I wanted to, things would probably be fine. I'm painfully aware that life is continuing on pretty much as normal all around me, and that I'm the one who is opting out of it at this point.

The book tour is going to happen, I think. But I long to see my in-laws, actually, and the rest of my husband's family...but a bunch of haole mainlanders visiting O'ahu right now isn't a prudent decision.

Yeah, I get it. We had a big trip with a group of friends to Costa Rica planned for September of 2020, cancelled for obvious reasons. When it became clear that simply pushing that back wasn't going to help, we finally nixed the idea and revised it to a trip to Austin for a week, planned for... October 2021. Now also cancelled, since most of the group have kids under 12. We also cancelled our annual family trip to the Upper Peninsula for the second year in a row.

I don't regret these decisions and wouldn't have felt comfortable taking any of these trips given the state of the variant. Still, it fucking sucks to keep scratching plans with no end in sight.

Yeah. :-(

Not just COVID but uh, wow

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/radon-treatment-mine-radiation-covid/2021/08/06/2bcf9ebc-f08f-11eb-81d2-ffae0f931b8f_story.html

Cannot be said enough!

I feel like there should be more collective soul-searching about commuting. Millions of us did it five days a week, year after year, and it was horrible and expensive, and it turned out to be almost entirely unnecessary.

— James Plunkett (@jamestplunkett) September 14, 2021

Absolutely agree, sadly I'm not working for a place willing to reexamine that idea and I'm back to commuting ten times a week. I hate it.

Pfizer CFO on timeline for #covid19 vaccine for kids, today at Morgan Stanley conf:

-results in kids 5-11 by end of Sept, filing for EUA early Oct

-filing for EUA for kids 6 months - 5 years about a month later, early Nov

(clarity on timeline for younger kids is new) (1/2) pic.twitter.com/ZJCZwfWj1T

— Meg Tirrell (@megtirrell) September 14, 2021

into my (kids') veins