outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

here's the graph that show the comparison between cases and deaths in the UK. note the first spike of deaths not reflected in the case numbers because testing basically didn't exist then.

https://i.imgur.com/FCqNTI3.png

but sic otm that part of the story here is hospitals getting better at treatment, and more pressure on hospitals means more 'excess deaths' and other bad consequences for people who don't even have covid at all but other things that can get them

there seems to be a tendency that when someone shares 'positive' developments, it's immediately smacked down as saying "the pandemic is over", as if facts should only be accepted if they meet the already-decided narrative. there's a wide gulf between "things might be improving" and "I'm going to eat Cheerios out of the toilet again, things are back to normal". not to mention that I don't see most Ilxors going out and being irresponsible.

this is mostly why I quit reading science twitter over a month ago and quit reading all of the shitty hot takes of amateurs and scolding contests and I am ever more the better for it. this thread is mild compared to that shit.

it's hard to look at those graphs and not come to the conclusion that a big part of it is that vaccines are doing their job

why can parliamentary staff simply not be convivial?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/26/masks-to-be-mandatory-again-for-parliamentary-staff-but-not-mps-covid

it's hard to look at those graphs and not come to the conclusion that a big part of it is that vaccines are doing their job

I mean, it would be nice to be in that situation

but sic otm that part of the story here is hospitals getting better at treatment, and more pressure on hospitals means more 'excess deaths' and other bad consequences for people who don't even have covid at all but other things that can get them

― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 27 October 2021 bookmarkflaglink

Lockdown has decreased the overall physical and mental health of the population. And the overall lack of investment in everyone's wellbeing through years of austerity. It's all added up.

writer of this piece also has a linked series about the ongoing strain on hospital and health services in the region.

so that a.30 variant produced five known cases in the entire world and none in the last five months, apparently, and may be extinct already: https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/new-vaccine-resistant-covid-variant-found-heres-why-it-is-not-worrisome-683392

UK cases down 13% on previous week. Looking good.

half term in England this week though, school's back tomorrow.

Hospitalisations are still up, deaths flat so let's see but hopefully the former should start coming down again

xp - takes about two weeks from an event to see it's impact, and cases started coming down a few days ago when half-term was just starting.

leeeeeroy jenkins

CDC advisers vote to recommend Pfizer/BioNTech #covid19 vaccine for kids 5-11 under Emergency Use Authorization:

Yes: 14
No: 0
Abstain: 0

— Meg Tirrell (@megtirrell) November 2, 2021

14-0 vote ---- not suprising after today's conversation. CDC ACIP votes to recommend Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for children 5-11. Expect CDC Director Walensky will make it offical later today or tomorrow.

— Sarah Karlin-Smith (@SarahKarlin) November 2, 2021

Great news.

Just got a call from our school system that they will be distributing vaccinations after school next week. So happy.

awesome! i hope more schools follow suit

i have two immunocompromised friends who have been desperate to get their kids vaxxed and they're over the moon. the kids are excited too!

a buddy already booked his kid this morning

my kid gets his first shot next tuesday, extremely excited about this

hoping it's a game-changer as it's an entire large age group of millions of people who haven't been able to thus far, but of course the benefits will take a while to register

in the US, the decline of cases nationally has seemingly stopped and started to tick up, which seems to correspond with rising cases in the midwest and northeast, whereas the South continues to decline since they were hit first.

am guessing we'll see the reduction resume again once these hot pockets peak and plateau.

and we'll see a holiday uptick too, no doubt, just hopefully not at last December and January levels.

mom's boosted, gonna get dad boosted when he comes home, and now my vaccine trial is offering a booster even though I technically got one in May. asking them uhhh if I should bother lol

who's going back to the office in january?

https://annehelen.substack.com/p/thats-a-big-poorly-camouflaged-red

Me, maybe?

A couple of other good posts on a related topic:

The Media Needs To Stop Asking Bosses About Labor

Workplace Journalism Is Broken

xpost to caek's link, yep #1, #2 and #5 here

#4 is wild!

yeah I was thankful that one wasn't one I'd ever had to deal with

so thankful to have a permanent virtual job. my co-workers aren't all the smartest re: vaccines 'n stuff

in the US, the decline of cases nationally has seemingly stopped and started to tick up, which seems to correspond with rising cases in the midwest and northeast, whereas the South continues to decline since they were hit first.

am guessing we'll see the reduction resume again once these hot pockets peak and plateau.

I'm going with Bob Wachter here:

My new mantra is that we're reaching a steady state, with forces for improvement (more vaxxed folks, inc. kids & boosters, ?meds) offset by forces for worsening (lots of unvaxxed, winter, people/regions less careful, waning immunity). Plateau in US case curve supports this idea. pic.twitter.com/p2QWGLKSf0

— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) November 2, 2021

It's really not clear that COVID is going to "end" any more than it already has.

very good article there caek, thanks

I'm inclined to agree with Wachter's take. However, if correct, Illinois (and a few other states) has some thinking to do about what, if anything, will trigger the removal of the indoor mask mandate.

To be perfectly clear, I'm not against the mandate or masks in general, just pointing out that a state hanging its hat on case numbers to decline even further before lifting mandates might need to reconsider different metrics at some point.

there definitely need to be roadmaps for 'no mask' or 'reinstitute mask', problem is the willfully ignorant and people who are playing dumb will always pretend they thought that de-masking was forever and don't ever want to re-mask.

but....only so much you can do. i haven't stopped wearing mine.

Agreed, it's a hard road and I don't envy people trying to make these decisions in the least. It just isn't hard to sense a growing frustration over the lack of clarity, I think (setting aside the willfully ignorant for the moment) people are hoping for some glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.

I haven't stopped wearing mine either and no immediate plans to do so, but I have to admit that I'd like to be able to imagine a future where I don't have to wear one for 8-10 hours a day straight at work.

going to say it:

i don't think mask mandates make a ton of sense in public health terms or are very sustainable politically once kids are eligible for vaccination AND basically everything is open at capacity.

neither of those things are true yet, but they're coming.

you can argue that everything should not be open at capacity, but once you take that step, masking is kind of beside the point in public health terms.

(might ask a mod to delete this post, depending on how the winter goes.)

Whether or not there's a mandate, I expect to continue masking in public for the foreseeable future, because idiots.

xxxxpost yep thanks caek and unperson, those anne-helen peterson and ed zitron posts really resonated with me. also zitron's post about meta is very funny

i'm interviewing for a job in the canary wharf tomorrow - my first job after two years of stay-at-home pandemic parenting

if i get the job, they want me to come to the office 1/2 days a week, which - to me, a person who's lived at home for two years - seems idiotic. i'm not sure what to do if i get the job but don't agree with the office hours. really have no desire to commute to canary wharf with a train of maskless city wankers even once a wek

also, i'm supposed to manage two people - i couldn't, right now, do that in good conscience if i had to enforce them to be in the office for two days a week.

but you can sit next to the driver on the DLR, which is cool

what driver?

the attendant wizard guy who wanders around the train. don't they usually sit in a seat at the front with some buttons when it's busy?

xp: DLR!

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2dWsKeTvmgw/Uko7RGMgPmI/AAAAAAAAAaM/U79lWhL8xYw/s1600/Screenshot+2013-09-30+at+8.29.15+PM.png

PSA that the set of underlying medical conditions that make you eligible for/advised to get a 6+ month booster in the US was expanded since i last looked. it now includes anyone with a bmi over 25 (which is over 70% of the population of the US), and mood disorders (the other 30% am i right!!!!).

local guidance may vary but in general local health departments are deferring to this page afaict: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html

From what I've heard, pharmacies really don't seem to GAF anymore, just say you work in a "risky environment" and it's good enough for them.

oh yeah you can totally lie and no one cares. but if you're waiting because you think you're not eligible then you might be is my point.

not really sure what the point of restricting them is tbh. i guess they're still not willing to concede the point that boosters are necessary for everyone, so they set criteria, and those criteria, strictly speaking, include a mere 85% of US adults, not 100%.

Yeah, I thought that was kinda pointless. I mean, if pushed, I'll just explain that I'm full time around students (which isn't a lie!). Focused on getting my son his first jab first tbh though.