outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

if anybody wants to talk to real people on twitter (for real - not being sarcastic), check the replies to that McKibbens tweet. so much of twitter is full of covid-denier idiots. it's nice to just see real people in the replies

McKibben has limited who can view her tweets, so I guess that the wrong people found it soon enough.

wow. up until just a few minutes ago, i was in there replying and actually getting to interact with people in similar situations! it was really nice

Would rather have some clarity but this is better than the status quo I guess

All California residents 18 and over are now eligible for booster coronavirus vaccine shots. "If you’re interested in getting a booster, go ahead and get one," the state’s secretary of health and human services said. https://t.co/StoSp9LbJh

— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 12, 2021

I’ve been saying

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/12/covid-cases-surging-europe-america-denial

That brings us to the United States, sitting in the zone of denial for the fourth time during the pandemic, thinking that in some way we will be “immune” to what is happening in Europe.

Other than in the usual zombie circles, is this happening in the United States? Serious question.

That somehow the magical combination of mRNA vaccines with only 58% of the population fully vaccinated, a relatively low proportion of booster shot uptake, a start to vaccinating teens and children, and a lot of prior Covid, and little in the way of mitigation, will spare us.

If "us" is the people who are vaccinated and boosted, then ... I think it actually might?

And if "us" means everybody, as it ought to, then how are things like "mass distribute medical quality masks and rapid home testing kits at no cost" or "Promote primary vaccination and boosters like there’s no tomorrow" (what do they think we have been doing?) are going to have much effect. Which unvaccinated people are out there who would start wearing KN95s to the store if only they were free?

thinking that in some way we will be “immune” to what is happening in Europe

On the contrary, it's more that people in Europe thinking that in some way they'll be "immune" to what already happened to us. And why not? Belgium has a caseload per capita way higher than ours but its COVID deaths are still below ours, and we are coming down from our quite recent big surge point. Presumably the Belgians are hoping that their high vaccination rate will keep them from suffering what the United States went through a month ago and it's not obvious they're wrong.

_That brings us to the United States, sitting in the zone of denial for the fourth time during the pandemic, thinking that in some way we will be “immune” to what is happening in Europe._

Other than in the usual zombie circles, is this happening in the United States? Serious question.

I don’t mean to pick on people in this thread though. I’m talking about national and state government, and not the crazy states and crazy people. It’s like the rest of the world doesn’t exist and the best we can do is guess what’s going to happen if we do X.

I skimmed that article and it largely seemed like another one of those "this is a problem with the unvaccinated, but for the unvaccinated" stories. Vaccination still keeps you pretty safe from hospitalization and death, and here at least boosters (and vaccine in general) are increasingly available to anyone that wants them. So if almost two years into a pandemic an unvaxxed person won't get a shot, or another shot, or a third shot, or wear a mask or do anything, that's ... their problem, right? I don't know anyone that doesn't take Covid seriously, and those same people are vaxxed to the max, and still wear masks, etc. And the people that don't take Covid seriously? I don't take *them* seriously. They're gambling on themselves.

Semi-related, I've mentioned I've been participating in a long term antibody study. To be fair, they started the study pre-vaccine, but here's my wonky timeline: test reactive to the two antibody tests c. June 2020, continue to test double-reactive for several months, and then begin testing reactive on one of the two and non-reactive on the other, indicating some of my antibodies may have faded. Would they have bumped up again if I was re-exposed? Dunno. Get vaccinated in April 2021 and test reactive to both antibody tests again, then eventually, months later, again reactive on one but not the other, so ... same thing, maybe they faded, maybe they're just lying in wait. My most recent test was a few weeks ago, and yesterday I get a call that I was reactive twice again (!). Which was a surprise. I ask what they think changed, and they of course don't really know. But they did apparently change one of tests, so maybe it was just more sensitive and my antibodies hadn't really faded at all. Or maybe, she suggested, I had been re-exposed to Covid and the antibody levels spiked. Who knows? And we may never know because I guess the study is ending this December. I do get one more test done at the beginning of December, and I've had my booster, so I assume my antibodies will be robust.

To be clear, I don’t think his recommendations for what we do about this situation are particularly fully formed or realistic. But his description of the situation is correct.

Cases are flying up here but with c.90% vaccination in >18 yr olds hospitalisation, ICU numbers and deaths are not so im not sure where the useful info to be gleaned thru comparison is

the magical thinking goes "things are going to be better here than they are in X" where X is a place with a higher vaccination rate or more equitable access to healthcare. or "we're nearly done" when places with higher vaccination rates are demonstrably not done (this one happened in early summer 2021).

I think there is somethong to the idea that locations with higher vaccination rates are seeing more prolonged or delayed case spikes, but with far fewer deaths, while low vaccination spots in the US had very dramatic spikes with high deaths, but then equally dramatic drops in case rates as the virus ran out of places to go.

We are eventually going to need to let go of the idea that "cases" alone is a significant metric.

the magical thinking goes "things are going to be better here than they are in X" where X is a place with a higher vaccination rate or more equitable access to healthcare. or "we're nearly done" when places with higher vaccination rates are demonstrably not done (this one happened in early summer 2021).

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, November 13, 2021 5:25 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

There's no magical thinking. People who are vaccinated and in high vaccination areas are going to do better than people who are vaccinated and in low vaccination areas, and people who are vaccinated in low vaccination areas are still going to do better than people who are unvaccinated. There's no magical thinking in assuming the vaccine will protect YOU and YOUR vaccinated loved ones, and I don't think people really care as much if an abstract geographic location has a "spike," they care about the people in their lives. To that extent, I'm "done." Especially now that my kids will be fully vaccinated in several weeks. If there are still vaccine holdouts in my area, I can't expend much energy worrying about them anymore.

The US has had over 1000 deaths per day since august, more per capita than anywhere in Europe all summer (by 2-10x) and we know this number is about to start rising again because … cases are rising, again.

You don’t live in a high vaccination area. You live in a high vaccination area relative only to a bunch of people you apparently don’t care about, but relative to whats actually needed to keep your community safe, and what’s being achieved elsewhere, you don’t live in a high vaccination area.

I’m not trying to tell you you should be more worried. And by all means stop worrying about other people.

I’m saying that politicians and public health officials keep being surprised when things that have happened in other countries happen here. And that doesn’t fill me with optimism about the next six months.

What does "keep my community safe" mean? People who want to be vaccinated in my community are vaccinated by now. I can't expend any more energy worrying about those who refuse. "My community" is made up of people who think it makes sense to get vaccinated. I know almost no one who still refuses. If someone I loved refused, I would worry about them. I don't have extra empathy to spare for people I don't know who insist on not being vaccinated, any more than people who refuse to wear seatbelts or drive drunk.

For what it's worth, my county is 70% fully vaccinated. And my county is geographically very large, and I would guarantee you the area of my county I live in is significantly higher, probably more like 80%. And I would bet my town is higher than that.

Are you a public health official? If not, I’m not talking about you. Do whatever you like.

Actually the state apparently tracks by zip code, and I just learned that mine is 82% fully vaccinated and 97% at least one dose. Not completely clear on whether that includes age groups that only just became eligible, I'd guess not but who knows.

So, in other words, I do in fact live in a high vaccination area.

If it’s 97% then obviously not.

One last time, I’m not trying to tell you that you personally should be more worried or expect what’s happening in some random country to happen in your little community. Not making a point about vaccination rates either. I’m saying that at the state and national level, the fact that people keep being surprised when things that have happened elsewhere happen here is maddening.

But re vaccination rates: Bergen county (not sure if that’s you?) has 79% of all people with 1+ dose. Your numbers are presumably fractions of adults or eligible population. And obviously you live in a country/state with no internal travel restrictions and much lower numbers elsewhere so sure your local rate is more relevant to you than the national rate, but it’s not like the situation in adjacent counties/states is irrelevant.

Portugal (the entire country) is 89% 1+ dose, and that’s including the entire population and the national average including their kids and holdouts. That’s high. Probably high enough for “over”.

Thks for clarification above caek i get you now

What’s the vax rate for Portugal. The Man?

100% chance of passion.

can’t believe man alive is planning to soon stop posting about how much he’s worried for the immunocompromised, home and emergency care workers, children that aren’t his, and ppl in unstable living situations in his area

People immunocompromised to the point that the vaccine can’t protect them are extremely rare, yet extremely common as a talking point for holier than thou posters.

Oooooook let's dial it back dude

Also they were in danger from many other viruses pre COVID, including ones for which there is no highly effective vaccine. What steps did you take to protect them?

Whataboutism

How about the shutins now making a moral crusade out of continuing to be shut ins and browbeating me with it "dial it back."

I'm not a shut in and I'm not unsympathetic but....come on

i’m going to try to refrain from posting too much about this latest contretemps but i FP’ed you for that man alive. that’s a really fucked up thing to say

Otm

There's some comfort to be found in the shared human experience of the pandemic making us all just a little bit more insane than we were before.

Otm

Is OTM the symptom or the disorder, and is there a shot for that?

logging in specifically to call man alive an asshole, fp, and log back out again

sorry, one more thing, we’re still grappling with a pandemic that’s led to nearly a million excess deaths, GOD FORBID some unsympathetic suburbanites get “browbeaten”

There's some comfort to be found in the shared human experience of the pandemic making us all just a little bit more insane than we were before.

?? is there? The rhythm of this sentence works but the sentiment sounds like you’re the Joker!

Personally aiming for “less insane” but maybe that’s just me!

We could save everyone time over the next year if we just assume caek’s going to bring some well-researched doomposting, man alive’s going to tell everyone they’re scaredy cats, and Josh has antibodies that are in various states of arousal

Have I missed anyone

Good morning!

Ah of course :)

My antibodies are hot, ready and legal.