outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

> here’s the UK case graph. and before you say “yes but deaths are low” there are still about 150 people dying every day from it

and it infuriates me that people say that this is half what it used to be as if that makes it ok.

been looking up places to get my booster and they are odd. a tiny corner chemist or somewhere that's open for a couple of hours 3 times a week.

Found a local non-chain pharmacy that took walk-ins only--no appointments--and got my booster there first thing this morning after standing in line for 45 mins.

I had my booster yesterday - everything said it was in a small chemist but when you actually got there a completely different building had been taken over. Had to drive for an hour to get there though, our county isn't getting any until next month and for other health reasons we wanted to get as soon as eligible.

We were AZ for the first two but Pfizer this time, ironically I read a study last night that suggests early results show mixing technology provides better results compared to a third of the same.

https://www.google.com/maps/@51.5022182,-0.227701,3a,57.1y,308.98h,94.63t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1shVL1ohhfVT4syW7CSIDorg!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

3.6 / 5.0 on google reviews.

"Small, not very friendly customer support."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/icu-is-full-of-the-unvaccinated-my-patience-with-them-is-wearing-thin

Similar story with my booster: what was clearly an out-of-business hairdressers in West Dulwich, with a temporary sign. But it's been a vaccination centre for a while now; gf got her 2nd there in the summer.

Booking system had gone offline when I arrived - 25+ in front of me in the queue. (Un)fortunately, half gave up and I was in and out in 45min. (First two, at a church in Thornton Heath, were 5min jobs). Protocols in SE21 scrupulously observed - 100% masks and occupancy limits in shops, like it was early 2021 or somesuch. Funny how you have these little microclimates - a mile down the road and it's 2019.

looking pretty dire in Europe

Yeah my mum told me Merkel's saying the numbers in Germany are worrying, but they're lower than the UK - do they have less fully vaccinated ppl?

Planning a xmas reunion back in Portugal w/ my wife's French family and so having to keep tabs on the situation in three different countries :/

Older population surely the key factor in Germany

my mumm was told that the mandatory 15 minute wait afterwards is ruling out some places without the space for it. but i can't imagine the chemist above has much (safe) space.

samira ahmed posted a pic of her post-jab wait on twitter in some church or other, not on the goldhawk road opposite paddy power.

(first two jabs were in an used commmercial unit next to sainsburys, all breezeblocks and plasterboard)

(and how did you swing that mike? my 6 months isn't up until 10th december)

Video might be useful re Germany

Germany urges people to get their booster shots, as COVID-19 cases soar to record levels. But it's a long wait in line for many. pic.twitter.com/oz4WWUT1uZ

— DW News (@dwnews) November 24, 2021

(and how did you swing that mike? my 6 months isn't up until 10th december)

My AZ jabs were Mar 20 and May 14. I got a text inviting me to book booster evening of Nov 12, and Nov 20 was first available date that worked for me.
I think I was the cohort after you for the first jab, when it was possible to pre-book jab #2 with a 12-week gap? I didn't get offered pre-book, but then they changed the rules and got invited to book #2 after only seven weeks. (Pam is the same - before me with #1, some weeks after with #2 and #3).

Xps yeah I was thinking of vaccine holdouts & lockdown protests as much as the rise in cases, all dire. That quote from the German health minister was wild

> Mar 20 and May 14

Mar 21 but then Jun 10

yeah, was exactly as you say, and i figured cancelling and rebook was just gonna complicate things.

Everything feels so damn bleak again, this is relentless. While I'm not surprised that we are seeing another huge surge right now, that doesn't mean I'm not angry and frustrated by it all the same, given how the severity was completely avoidable. I just feel so... stuck. The unvaccinated holdouts get to determine the fate for all of us, like it or not. It's so disheartening to be reminded of that every other day. I mean, my gut wants to just say, "fuck 'em" and let this burn through the unvaccinated as quickly as possible. But that throws in a lot of still ineligible and immunocompromised in with them at risk. Also, the more this circulates through the unvaccinated, the more the chance for mutation.

I don't have the answer. I'd like to see more immediate and harsh consequences for opting out but, fuck, it's going the other direction.

Not to doompost, but.. holy fuck this is soul crushing.

Look, get your kids vaccinated and enjoy the company of the vaccinated, which, presumably is most everyone you care about.

Yep, wife and I are double vaxxed and boosted, kid is halfway there. Doing all we can, but doesn't mean that the effects still aren't hitting us though. Minor, of course, but kid still can't do 80% of the after-school activities he'd normally be doing since they cancelled them all with the cold weather and rising cases. Trip planned for next month to meet up with friends scratched, yet again, due to concerns with immunocompromised family members. Just tired of staring down year three with so much still put on hold.

If you're still up for it, plan a trip with jabbed friends.

If it's any consolation, Florida endured in late July and August what y'all in the Midwest did. Hopefully it's a spike, not a surge.

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/is-watching-the-1984-ghostbusters-movie-killing-people-a-statistician-s-perspective?s=09

In other news, jon, if I've read between the lines correctly we will soon share an employer. In part because I am done waiting for my enormous company to issue the vaccine mandate that they clearly have no interest in issuing. There was no way in hell I was gonna ride out the winter in that place.

Wow, congrats! Glad you can get out of that situation.

Holy shit, did not expect this particular anti-vaxx bullshit article to be published by the Chicago Reader of all places. Appears to be one of the co-owners of the paper forced it through to be published, but holy shit, I've lost a lot of respect for this paper. Dude even goes down the "ivermectin" route. Can't believe there wasn't a Q shout-out at the end.

And the "defense" by the EIC makes it even worse!

✍️ A note to Reader staff from co-publisher/co-EIC Karen Hawkins: pic.twitter.com/dJKFle8IAa

— Chicago Reader (@Chicago_Reader) November 24, 2021

"my friend made me feel bad so I had to run with this"

wtf!?

Rightfully getting absolutely thrashed on Twitter for running this, even by beloved Chicago thrash bands:

It’s still fucked though

— Oozing Wound (@OozingWound) November 24, 2021

BRB, sending the co-EIC of the Chicago Reader an op-ed about how people should be able to cook and eat her kids if they really really want to. Given her stance on open argument and providing all sides a platform no matter how legitimately insane, I look forward to its publication in the next edition.

that would be young lunch, kind of a departure for your brand

You let your food sit out for seven years before tucking in?

"not because he's owner of the paper"

but also not NOT because of that, know what I mean

The B.1.1.529 variant is one to keep an eye on. Lots of novel mutations. Thread by Prof. Christina Pagel summarizing today's briefing by the South African ministry of health.

you couldn't wait until AFTER the holiday, could you?

(j/k, awesome news)

i'm done getting panicked over every little "scary" variant until we actually have more data. we've already panicked over Lambda, Mu, etc, none of which wound up able to supplant Delta or were the scariants that they were purported to be. the time for action now is amongst the experts researching it, and I'll follow whatever they say when they give guidance. until then, though, I have no mental real estate for worry. not after the last two hell years.

now yes, this one appears different in that it does seem to be supplanting Delta in SA, whereas the other scariants early on seemed to show they couldn't get a foothold, but there's little I can do that I'm not already doing. boosted out the wazoo, and as of Monday, my entire household will be, I still mask....

This tweet seems like the core of that thread:

The sheer increase on these charts is very worrying and suggests that B.1.1.529 might have significant advantages over Delta and C.1.2. What exactly this advantage is and how it breaks down between immune escape and transmissibility is not yet known.

Oof. This one looks legit. Happy thanksgiving.

a more even-handed summary: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w

Friendly reminder that new variants are just that: new. We can’t know if they will be bad or just meh based on sequence alone, nor guess at their provenance. Lots of mutations ≠ very bad.

This Thanksgiving, I remain grateful for genomic surveillance & safe, effective vaccines. https://t.co/Zx0jKoyNh0

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) November 25, 2021

Virologists—including myself—are concerned. But I don’t think anyone can conclude based on the data we have so far that we are screwed. There are actions we need to take, starting with providing lots of support to South Africa to enable public health measures and vaccination.

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) November 25, 2021

UK have just added 6 southern African countries to the travel red list.

another challenge is that prevalence of Delta is low in South Africa because up until recently, cases themselves were low, so it's hard to tell whether it would actually overtake in a Delta in a country that has a high rate of Delta.

Correct. The low incidence of Delta in SA kinda means that Nu becoming dominant is weaker evidence of it “outcompeting” it when there really wasn’t much to outcompete so to speak. https://t.co/gHzNyLmQOg

— Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉🔜 MFF (@sailorrooscout) November 25, 2021

xpost it's probably the right move, being precautious. just not a fan of how twitter has already moved into "we're back to square one, the vaccines are obsolete" territory. Eric Feigl-Ding is cumming in his sock right now

Some key words in that tweet I cited: "suggests", "might have", "not yet known". otoh, if we panic now, we can avoid the coming holiday rush.

(also, sadly it's occurring in a country that is only 24% vaccinated, which is another confounder)

and one more.

which isn't to say this won't be the Big Bad Wolf, but let's remain calm because it's far from a certainty

Important thing to keep in mind:
- We don't know what other factors may be helping spread, for example, an event or recent behaviour change
- SA has a low vax rate - 28% 1dose, 24% 2dose. Immune evasion may not be needed to spread. Fitness could differ in higher-vax countries.

— Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66) November 25, 2021

Lol Christina Pagel is an indie sage doomer who doesn’t work in immunology, vaccinology or anything relevant. I’d go so far as to say her opinion is worth less than Eric Feigl-Ding’s.

is that it is going to take a lot to fully evade these and again, looking at an area of low vaccination and this variant is not a reflection of an area of high vaccination and this variant.

— Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉🔜 MFF (@sailorrooscout) November 25, 2021

Also want to point out for double lolz that she has been a total lockdown doomer and yet was posting about going shopping with covid symptoms the other day “I was convinced we didn’t have it bEcAuSe WeD bEeN sO cArEfUl”

Also

There we go: it's a backlog of antigen tests added to the cumulative total. Importantly, "The estimated number of new cases for 23 Nov 2021 is 868" https://t.co/1v2IAuYTq3

— Edouard Mathieu (@redouad) November 25, 2021

just not a fan of how twitter has already moved into "we're back to square one, the vaccines are obsolete" territory

twitter is talking about cat pictures and missing Doctor Who episodes now, it’s safe to go back :)

🐦[Virologists—including myself—are concerned. But I don’t think anyone can conclude based on the data we have so far that we are screwed. There are actions we need to take, starting with providing lots of support to South Africa to enable public health measures and vaccination.
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) November 25, 2021🕸]🐦