outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

lol

Fiegl Ding retweeted that response? I stopped paying any attention to his alarmist nonsense over a year ago and I don't think any infectious disease experts take him seriously. He's a twitter attention whore and that is all.

What Balloux is communicating here is about what you'd expect; vaxxed and you get a breakthrough? you'll be well protected for a while. I hope so, because that just happened to me this week.

Just An Ordinary Bloke @Unusual_Times

Breaking News: President Biden said it’s up to individuals whether to wear masks, undercutting efforts by his administration to urge Americans to keep wearing them on airplanes and public transit after a federal judge struck down a nationwide mask mandate. https://t.co/2b2Kcs9o5h

— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 19, 2022

congrats to my fellow americans who have defeated covid. we did it!!

WE DID IT! WE DID IT!*

* - ignoring my own anecdotal data point that shows I now know more people who have tested positive for COVID in the last two weeks than at any other point, including the January Omicron peak

i can't believe 95% of americans 65 or older got at least one shot, and 89.4% got both. that's impressive!

(wish my mom were one of them, but she has elected to be one of the 5 percent with not even one shot)

we're officially in stop the count territory

the important thing is that nothing bad could possibly happen as a result of this

oh certainly not

halting all bad things from happening is not an attainable public health goal. the end of restrictions was never going to mean the end of covid. it's still a nasty disease with a wide range of outcomes, but it is crossing the line from a pandemic to an epidemic, from a society-wide risk to an individual one. It's reaching the point where the public health position should be: if you aren't vaccinated, get the shot, if need a booster, go get one.

Is it though? I don't think the numbers bear that out yet.

Which numbers? Are hospitals overwhelmed with the sick and dying? Are businesses or schools unable to operate because their employees are all home sick? Are there no effective vaccines or treatments?

I'd say that those are legitimate pandemic measurements. High numbers of positive tests with an uptick in mortality, but society operating at near normal levels, would match an epidemic rather than a pandemic imo.

I guess if your metric is "society operating at near normal levels", sure. I'm not arguing that we are anywhere near the peak of the pandemic where hospitals are overrun, of course not. But I do think some of these localized upticks point to us not being yet to a level where we should collectively let our guards down. But Biden pretty much put the nail in that particular coffin today, so why should we argue over what it means?

1 in 13 people in England have covid rn, and 650 ppl died from it last Wednesday

Ugh

fwiw 1 in 13 was for the last week of march. the case rate is 3x smaller now.

admittedly i have cancelled my may trip to covid island on the grounds that i am willing to risk getting covid, but i'm not willing to definitely get covid.

I guess if your metric is "society operating at near normal levels"

nice cherry-picking

And of course, eliminating the measures that keep covid mitigated mean that it will stay mitigated and not suddenly get much worse again

One of my responses to weak rightists for two years has been, "I'm a gay man who has never enjoyed a normal sex life thanks to another viral epidemic, fuck you for freaking about something so stupid as wearing a mask for a little while." I'm so tired.

I don't personally plan on stopping masking with a KN-95 when I'm in public places, because I have ample reasons to continue to avoid becoming infected or spreading it among people I love. The tricky question is whether mandating NPIs in the USA is warranted now that such large percentages of the population have acquired a measure of immunity either through vaccination or infection or both.

I don't think the metric should be whether universal use of NPIs would reduce transmission or whether reduced transmission is desirable, but rather whether the situation requires universal deployment of NPIs for the protection of public health, as opposed to deploying vaccinations, boosters, treatment of the ill, and continued public education.

Covid won't go away by using NPIs. It will be continue to circulate for years and decades, even centuries to come. The question is how and when to switch from mandatory NPIs to voluntary NPIs based on the threat to society as a whole.

"The question is how and when to switch from mandatory NPIs to voluntary NPIs based on the threat to society as a whole."

That is the question, but it just seems too soon to abandon masks on airplanes and on public transportation

Today's asymptomatic test pos. rate @UCSFHospitals: 2%. So 1/50 people w/ no symptoms of Covid is +.
At 2%, on flight of 150 people there's 95% chance that at least one passenger has Covid.
SF has a relatively low Covid rate, so odds on a US flight today are likely worse. #MaskUp

— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) April 19, 2022

Personally, I would have preferred to keep mask mandates on public transport a bit longer while BA2 is still in the process of revealing its capacities. The CDC thought so, too. But that mandate was scheduled to expire fairly soon. The real answer to the question of the necessity of NPIs is always going to be apparent in our hospitals. That tide has receded in the USA to levels not seen for a couple of years. That should be acknowledged and cautiously celebrated.

I think masking should still be required but I think requiring it on transit and nowhere else contributes to the American idea that transit (and people who use it) are especially dirty and dangerous.

maybe, but they’re small enclosed spaces.

the part of my life that I'm not seeing going back to normal is having a gym membership. I still can’t picture attending crowded yoga classes or working out next to some random panting people

Transit has better circulation/filtration than a bar or yoga class.

This is not a defense of what happened yesterday.

2/3 of Australia's pandemic deaths to date have happened in 2022.

Wow sic :(
There've been no tests, masks, distancing, any measures at all in England these past couple of weeks. Loads of people I know are getting Covid for the second time, one pre-schooler quite poorly (but seemingly ok now). I just feel it's relentless. There should still be isolating required and tests for those who need them.

but instead we get this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61145692

"Civil servants must stop working from home and return to the office to ensure government buildings are at full capacity, ministers have been told.

Cabinet Office minister Jacob Rees-Mogg has written to cabinet colleagues urging them to send a "clear message" to the civil service about returning."

A little outbreak here in Oakland - a couple buddies have tested positive after attending a show on Friday night

I didn't go, but was around somebody on Saturday who has since gotten sick. I tested negative both monday & tuesday, not too worried about it.. I had the 'rona back in November

But I do want to go get a booster this week. We are not out of the woods by any means.

A friend noticed this post yesterday from the DNA Lounge here in town. It's worth a read

https://www.dnalounge.com/backstage/log/2022/04/19.html

Beautifully put, that.

yeah that says it all really.

in this hurricane, instead of building levees and storm drains, the government is telling us, "everybody should take personal responsibility for deciding what level of moistness they are comfortable with".

And in this hurricane, as it uproots trees and batters your storm windows, your friend rolls their eyes and asks, "Are you just going to stay home forever?"

I was at the Fillmore a couple weeks back, and they were still requiring proof of vax - but it was fine to have a picture on your phone (backed up by ID), so I guess that can be faked.

I think they were also doing some rapid tests outside on the sidewalk

That is wonderfully put, kudos. Thanks for sharing Ned.

this is good

Moderna says it plans to submit EUA application for #covid19 vaccine for kids 6mo-5yr by the end of the month https://t.co/mwnOwzm1p7

— Meg Tirrell (@megtirrell) April 20, 2022

also PSA

if you’re in the US and yuo test positive and are interested in paxlovid, this covers what's involved https://docs.google.com/document/d/1QERtKd1aDLDTjYAmaOOR5NVymJ-OhAFyU3EQQh4-VTM/edit. The set of risk factors that makes someone eligible for it covers like 80% of the US adult population (BMI > 25, ex-smoker, depression, etc.), and there is plentiful supply (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/03/18/1087380770/lifesaving-covid-drugs-are-sitting-unused-on-pharmacy-shelves-hhs-data-shows). it is *extremely* effective at reducing the risk of serious acute complications, and likely reduces the amount of time you are sick and may help reduce the risk of long covid (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/what-happened-to-paxlovid-the-covid-19-wonder-drug.html)

can i get a second booster yet? what’s the deal on that for under-55s with medical conditions?

Boarding a plane tomorrow morning. Can't wait!

Let me tell you, having to fly back to SF yesterday after the mandate was out was...instructive.

Do tell!

I'm lucky I wasn't in the air two days ago when the pilots and passengers broke out into celebratory war chants.

I was, but nothing was known or said until we landed so that was nice. As for yesterday: majority of passengers still masked but by no means all, while the entire crew was unmasked. That struck me as a bit much.

Can't wait!

table you're eligible for a second booster if you're at least 4 months out from your first booster and "moderately or severely immunocompromised"

Wow sic :(

Ah, it'd be worse if other countries *checks notes upthread* existed, and the people who live/d in them were real.

Fantastic piece from DNA Lounge - thanks again to Ned for sharing.

feel free to discuss australia in this thread, or any other countries you wish to discuss. I try always to note when I am speaking only of conditions in the USA, so it is plain who I'm referring to.

I'd totally forgotten about the dna lounge - had some awesome nights there. <cautiously clicks on photo gallery>

i’m in sweden right now. including the airport and the airplane itself, i’ve seen maybe 3 or 4 people wearing masks the entire time i’ve been here. it’s wild.