outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

fwiw 1 in 13 was for the last week of march. the case rate is 3x smaller now.

admittedly i have cancelled my may trip to covid island on the grounds that i am willing to risk getting covid, but i'm not willing to definitely get covid.

I guess if your metric is "society operating at near normal levels"

nice cherry-picking

And of course, eliminating the measures that keep covid mitigated mean that it will stay mitigated and not suddenly get much worse again

One of my responses to weak rightists for two years has been, "I'm a gay man who has never enjoyed a normal sex life thanks to another viral epidemic, fuck you for freaking about something so stupid as wearing a mask for a little while." I'm so tired.

I don't personally plan on stopping masking with a KN-95 when I'm in public places, because I have ample reasons to continue to avoid becoming infected or spreading it among people I love. The tricky question is whether mandating NPIs in the USA is warranted now that such large percentages of the population have acquired a measure of immunity either through vaccination or infection or both.

I don't think the metric should be whether universal use of NPIs would reduce transmission or whether reduced transmission is desirable, but rather whether the situation requires universal deployment of NPIs for the protection of public health, as opposed to deploying vaccinations, boosters, treatment of the ill, and continued public education.

Covid won't go away by using NPIs. It will be continue to circulate for years and decades, even centuries to come. The question is how and when to switch from mandatory NPIs to voluntary NPIs based on the threat to society as a whole.

"The question is how and when to switch from mandatory NPIs to voluntary NPIs based on the threat to society as a whole."

That is the question, but it just seems too soon to abandon masks on airplanes and on public transportation

Today's asymptomatic test pos. rate @UCSFHospitals: 2%. So 1/50 people w/ no symptoms of Covid is +.
At 2%, on flight of 150 people there's 95% chance that at least one passenger has Covid.
SF has a relatively low Covid rate, so odds on a US flight today are likely worse. #MaskUp

— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) April 19, 2022

Personally, I would have preferred to keep mask mandates on public transport a bit longer while BA2 is still in the process of revealing its capacities. The CDC thought so, too. But that mandate was scheduled to expire fairly soon. The real answer to the question of the necessity of NPIs is always going to be apparent in our hospitals. That tide has receded in the USA to levels not seen for a couple of years. That should be acknowledged and cautiously celebrated.

I think masking should still be required but I think requiring it on transit and nowhere else contributes to the American idea that transit (and people who use it) are especially dirty and dangerous.

maybe, but they’re small enclosed spaces.

the part of my life that I'm not seeing going back to normal is having a gym membership. I still can’t picture attending crowded yoga classes or working out next to some random panting people

Transit has better circulation/filtration than a bar or yoga class.

This is not a defense of what happened yesterday.

2/3 of Australia's pandemic deaths to date have happened in 2022.

Wow sic :(
There've been no tests, masks, distancing, any measures at all in England these past couple of weeks. Loads of people I know are getting Covid for the second time, one pre-schooler quite poorly (but seemingly ok now). I just feel it's relentless. There should still be isolating required and tests for those who need them.

but instead we get this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61145692

"Civil servants must stop working from home and return to the office to ensure government buildings are at full capacity, ministers have been told.

Cabinet Office minister Jacob Rees-Mogg has written to cabinet colleagues urging them to send a "clear message" to the civil service about returning."

A little outbreak here in Oakland - a couple buddies have tested positive after attending a show on Friday night

I didn't go, but was around somebody on Saturday who has since gotten sick. I tested negative both monday & tuesday, not too worried about it.. I had the 'rona back in November

But I do want to go get a booster this week. We are not out of the woods by any means.

A friend noticed this post yesterday from the DNA Lounge here in town. It's worth a read

https://www.dnalounge.com/backstage/log/2022/04/19.html

Beautifully put, that.

yeah that says it all really.

in this hurricane, instead of building levees and storm drains, the government is telling us, "everybody should take personal responsibility for deciding what level of moistness they are comfortable with".

And in this hurricane, as it uproots trees and batters your storm windows, your friend rolls their eyes and asks, "Are you just going to stay home forever?"

I was at the Fillmore a couple weeks back, and they were still requiring proof of vax - but it was fine to have a picture on your phone (backed up by ID), so I guess that can be faked.

I think they were also doing some rapid tests outside on the sidewalk

That is wonderfully put, kudos. Thanks for sharing Ned.

this is good

Moderna says it plans to submit EUA application for #covid19 vaccine for kids 6mo-5yr by the end of the month https://t.co/mwnOwzm1p7

— Meg Tirrell (@megtirrell) April 20, 2022

also PSA

if you’re in the US and yuo test positive and are interested in paxlovid, this covers what's involved https://docs.google.com/document/d/1QERtKd1aDLDTjYAmaOOR5NVymJ-OhAFyU3EQQh4-VTM/edit. The set of risk factors that makes someone eligible for it covers like 80% of the US adult population (BMI > 25, ex-smoker, depression, etc.), and there is plentiful supply (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/03/18/1087380770/lifesaving-covid-drugs-are-sitting-unused-on-pharmacy-shelves-hhs-data-shows). it is *extremely* effective at reducing the risk of serious acute complications, and likely reduces the amount of time you are sick and may help reduce the risk of long covid (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/what-happened-to-paxlovid-the-covid-19-wonder-drug.html)

can i get a second booster yet? what’s the deal on that for under-55s with medical conditions?

Boarding a plane tomorrow morning. Can't wait!

Let me tell you, having to fly back to SF yesterday after the mandate was out was...instructive.

Do tell!

I'm lucky I wasn't in the air two days ago when the pilots and passengers broke out into celebratory war chants.

I was, but nothing was known or said until we landed so that was nice. As for yesterday: majority of passengers still masked but by no means all, while the entire crew was unmasked. That struck me as a bit much.

Can't wait!

table you're eligible for a second booster if you're at least 4 months out from your first booster and "moderately or severely immunocompromised"

Wow sic :(

Ah, it'd be worse if other countries *checks notes upthread* existed, and the people who live/d in them were real.

Fantastic piece from DNA Lounge - thanks again to Ned for sharing.

feel free to discuss australia in this thread, or any other countries you wish to discuss. I try always to note when I am speaking only of conditions in the USA, so it is plain who I'm referring to.

I'd totally forgotten about the dna lounge - had some awesome nights there. <cautiously clicks on photo gallery>

i’m in sweden right now. including the airport and the airplane itself, i’ve seen maybe 3 or 4 people wearing masks the entire time i’ve been here. it’s wild.

👍

Another day, another big COVID admissions drop - 1,435 (was 2,003 last Thursday, so that's down 28%). Still far too high of course, and you don't have to look too far to see the NHS under pressure in lots of other ways, but hopefully a continued fall in COVID will help somewhat.

— Oliver Johnson (@BristOliver) April 21, 2022

A 31-year-old woman in Spain caught Covid twice within 20 days, the shortest known gap between infections, scientists have reported.

Researchers in Spain gave details of the healthcare worker, who tested positive a few days before Christmas in December 2021 and again in January 2022. The case is further evidence that the Omicron variant can evade immunity from even recent previous infections.

The woman, who was fully vaccinated and had received a booster shot 12 days earlier, tested positive in a PCR staff screening test at work on 20 December. She didn’t develop any symptoms, and self-isolated for 10 days before returning to work.

On 10 January 2022, just 20 days after first testing positive, she developed a cough, fever and felt generally unwell and did another PCR test. This was also positive.

NEWS @CNN: Dr. Fauci confirms on the record that regulators are looking at waiting until this summer (likely June) to approve vaccines for children under 5 in order to avoid public confusion.

This comes even as the Moderna shot could be proven safe and effective as early as May

— Kasie Hunt (@kasie) April 21, 2022

this is the kind of thing you end doing when when you (unfortunately correctly) conclude after two years that your public health agencies cannot communicate clearly.

i’m not sure i understand the issue. after two years under-5s might need to wait an extra month?

The very week my son's school dropped the mask requirement, he caught a cold and passed it on to me. So I'm now a believer that masks in school are very effective.

xp

moderna are filing for approval next week. they're going to wait for pfizer to file because approving them one at a time would be "confusing".

(unfortunately correctly)

and surely just urging Pfizer to file in the same week would cause greater confusion

I get the annoyance but I also think the last 2 years have proven the American public to be pretty f’n easily confused

I think people in other countries are less confused about what the government recommends, even if they disagree.

The problem is more the CDC and FDA have done a bad job communicating with clarity over two administrations, and have spent a lot of time talking themselves out of things by playing armchair psychologist (eg we better not recommend this because people won’t do it) and not enough time making clear public health recommendations.

Being repeatedly disagreed with by two White Houses and thousands of state and local governments hasn’t made their job easier, to be fair.

Flying today. In airplanes and both airports, a majority of people are unmasked but the number of masked people isn't small at all, and it's all very chill -- I am dubious there is going to be any substantial amount of hassling of masked folks by freedom-enforcers, I (in N95) have received not so much as a funny look

my experience yesterday too -- 50% of passengers on my flight still masked. Crew too. I'd say most airport staff and many international travelers still masked.

gut capacity of govt to do anything other than throw money at problem, then throw money at problem: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/22/opinion/covid-pandemic-drugs-treatment.html

"the problem," meaning "cronies in adjacent industries"

i didn't realize there was another country (Eritrea) besides North Korea that has not administered any vaccines

otm

Kids under five still have no vaccine.

Pfizer's was delayed in a confusing turnabout, and FDA may delay Moderna authorization because... some baffling theory about simultaneous release?

My piece on why this makes no sociological or immunological sense.https://t.co/Dru7vK1gkm pic.twitter.com/4yM8nplt3Y

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) April 27, 2022

The weird, five-dimensional behavioral chess-game reported by Politico about the FDA wanting to authorize kids vaccines simultaneously, later, by DELAYING one of them now misses the very obvious and painful point that this communicates that vaccines aren't important for kids. pic.twitter.com/mCHlYh6AaB

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) April 27, 2022