Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

Sorry, it's Iranian oil not Iraqi.

Another Bloomberg story which supports the heavy Iranian oil explanation:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=akLt5fJKQNr8

okay I'll buy that, actually. Refineries being the bottleneck seems like the simplest explanation

WE GONNA DIE

link?

http://www.mortuaryservices.com/

so, worst month since the great depression

I knew this thread would pop back up today.

Not worst month, worst June. June has a tendency to be a strong month.

right yeah i missed that

BTW China's benchmark index apparently had its worst month ever.

singa bouta dooma inna juna

Think how bad off we'd be if it weren't fer all them there stimulatin' checks DC's been dropping on us! We're all such lucky bums.

I've heard vague rumors for a while about a potential coming credit crisis II involving credit cards. Anyone have an opinion on this?

Right now credit card issuers are riding high, because so many USA people use credit or debit cards at the gas station and their cut is a fixed percentage of the sale (iirc it's 2%). This has been jacking up their profits.

However, since a lot of USA people (apparently) were living high by borrowing against rising home equity spending the loan proceeds in the belief that they'd settle their debt when they sold. And since that equity has dropped considerably, while their debts have not, the presumption is that these same folks have been turning to credit cards to reinflate their finances. This, of course, won't do more than postpone things, while also transposing their debt to a higher rate of interest.

This is still in the whispering stage because there aren't any numbers out there to make it real. It's just the markets waiting for another shoe to drop.

I heard an interesting NPR piece on gas station economics recently. High prices are actually hurting gas stations -- 1) station's profit margin per gallon apparently doesn't change a lot, 2) high priced reduce demand, and 3) as you say, credit card companies take a fixed percent of the transaction. So lets say a gallon goes from $3.00 to $4.00. The gas station owner makes the same 20 cents on the gallon (I completely made this number up and don't know the real numbers) either way, but the credit card fee goes from taking 6 cents to taking 8 cents out of the owner's profit. And to make things worse, more people, as you say, are using credit cards to pay.

Visa actually recently reduced its transaction fees in response to this problem, btw. I guess ultimately it's not in their interest to force stations out of business but rather to keep them alive and squeeze as much as they can.

http://www.templetons.com/brad/smalldarth.jpg

I feel like this could go in the real estate thread too:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/starbucks-pulling-plug-600-us/story.aspx?guid=%7b874B1409-ABC3-432E-85AA-4201C052948C%7d&dist=msr_1&print=true&dist=printMidSection

Remember when a coming-soon Starbucks was considered a sure sign that you should buy a condo in the neighborhood?

The coffee-shop chain said both full-time and part-time positions will be eliminated but wants to transfer some of those employees affected to nearby stores.
Starbucks shares jumped 6% in late trading.

Gotta love capitalism.

I wish they would cut some horrid AAA singer songwriters from the HearMusic roster instead.

yeah, just trash their contract with antigone rising and save a few baristas' jobs.

For . . . the Dow Jones industrial average, which dropped 14.4 percent in the six months through June 30, it was the poorest start to a year in nearly four decades.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN3041264220080630?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews&rpc=22&sp=e

Gotta love capitalism.

-- Ned Trifle II, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 21:44 (Yesterday) Link
I know right?
Lol at tiger economies.
Is anyone at all considering the word 'sustainability'?!

Anyone? Oh, yes. Many millions are considering this idea.

Several billions are not, especially those who control big financial investments. They only want to be richer at the end of the quarter. By year's end at the latest.

Several billions are not, especially those who control big financial investments. They only want to be richer at the end of the quarter. By year's end at the latest.
Yeah thats who I was calling out, fuckers do not give a what.
I've heard some people talk of participatory economies and localising stuff? On a local scale that might work...

I mean on a 'small scale'

Well, you can certainly throw a chip or two (of your personal expenditures) on the pile of your local economy. I do this. Just an hout ago I sent to pick up this week's vegies from a local farm, a CSA, about five miles from my house.

All you can do is try. By this thime in my life, I have most of my basic needs already met, so it's easier for me than for someone just starting out. But, in the not so distant future, transport costs will be a much larger part of any item's price tag, so buying local will make more economic sense than it does today.

As life changes radically in the next couple of decades, all these trade-offs will become more obvious.

Sometimes I find myself a little bitter cause it's like dammit why didn't I get to be born in the less-worrisome hooray fuckoff let's use up everything era?

But of course that wouldn't have made unsustainable living OK anyway. And anyhow I'm here and not there. Go to life with the lot you've got.

Well, unless anyone here was born in the 40s, that pretty much applies to us all. And don't worry in a few years it'll bounce back and everyone will be out maxing the credit cards again, filling up the humvee and saying 'well that wasn't so bad' AND IT WILL NOW NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN so we don't need to worry.

here's hoping!!

And don't worry in a few years it'll bounce back and everyone will be out maxing the credit cards again, filling up the humvee and saying 'well that wasn't so bad' AND IT WILL NOW NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN so we don't need to worry

As long as you don't want to use continually debased western currencies to pay for imports like food and oil that is.

And don't worry in a few years it'll bounce back and everyone will be out maxing the credit cards again, filling up the humvee and saying 'well that wasn't so bad'

I don't know if that's really going to happen.

ca 1985:

"If the rest of the world lived like Americans did, we'd need x times as much oil, and x times as much food as the entire planet is capable of producing!"

"Hahah OMG that is crazy. jeez"

All Hail Malthus.

Malthus was proved wrong by the continually increasing ability of technological advances in food production and efficiency to provide for the world's population. With the end of the oil era - and the end of all those petrochemicals that make food production so cheap - don't you think Malthus might end up being sort of right in the end?

I mean, I think it can't be repeated enough that Western standards of living rely fundamentally on inequality with the rest of the world. As justice grows, Western incomes and access to resources will shrink.

In the end maybe, but even with today's technology we can dramatically increase efficiency even if we don't increase production of anything.

Your second paragraph is OTM.

I mean, I think it can't be repeated enough that Western standards of living rely fundamentally on inequality with the rest of the world.

Yes with regards to resources. But this is verging on the development as zero-sum game fallacy.

Not so sure of that. It is entirely possible to achieve a better standard of living, right around the world, using less resources.

I don't know if that's really going to happen.

-- Tracer Hand, Friday, July 4, 2008 11:48 AM (7 hours ago) Bookmark Link

Right. I, and I assume Aimless, were being sarcastic.

hey guess what just news cycle the fact that it now costs $160 to fill up a GMC Yukon did not stop the financial sector from being in a fuck ton of trouble

what's the trickle-down from lehman and bear stearns getting killed? how long can merrill lynch and fannie/freddie drag out putting their losses on the books?

Right. I, and I assume Aimless, were being sarcastic.

-- BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Friday, July 4, 2008 7:16 PM (4 days ago) Bookmark Link

I don't think Aimless was being sarcastic. I hope he wasn't. I on the other hand was.

hello all. just thought i'd stop by to share the bizarre info that we were up considerably in June from last year, and are WAY up so far from last year's July as well.

i think this may just be proof that A) idiots are actually spending those stupid rebate checks and B) musicians are by and large, idiots. so don't get your hopes up.

I was just thinking about Malthus the other day, and how he probably never would have guessed that as affluence increases, the birth rate decreases AND consumption increases by an degree that more than makes up for it.

A lot of the 19th century economists (or at least the first half of the century or so) never really got to grips with Humanity's ability to manufacture demand.

Well, that's still good news, BB.

PS You don't need proof that musicians are by and large stupid. Next you'll try to prove to me that there cannot be more than everything.

I wonder when Obama will get around to this topic -- once all the faith-based groups are funded?

They're doing even more funding of that right now!

obama on economy and bankruptcy today:

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1820883,00.html

WE GONNA DIE