hall of fame, next vote...

I mean, cabrera and jones might be decent comps, but putting pujols in that conversation seems a little insulting

I meant Pujols from 2013-2021--that his career would look better if he'd retired after 2012.

Dude. I think James doesn’t like you

He's got those sarcastic quotation marks around "iffy"--I think you might be right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TELi8M4nkYs

I used to be adamant that a HOF'er had to have a reasonable amount of value in his 30s

I agree to an extent, but I think we're also somewhat biased by the inner circle HOFers of the 50's and 60's (e.g. Mays, Aaron) who were great until age 40, and to some extent the 300 game winners from the 70's onwards (Carlton, Seaver, Unit, Maddux, ...). Plenty of HOFer flamed out in their early 30's. Duke Snider (to name one example) had no good seasons past the age of 30, and was basically a compiler. His comps on BR include Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, Jim Rice, Moises Alou, and interestingly enough, Andruw Jones. All of them are borderline or at least debatable HOFers.

We could find plenty of hitters from the 20's and 30's who put up video game numbers for a few years in that era, and were essentially done in their early 30's. Many of them were elected via questionable means under the old veteran's committee rules, which is another issue entirely, but the point is that there are many HOFers with 7-8 great years who didn't have much value in their 30's or were simply compilers. Maybe it all comes down to one's opinion on Big Hall vs Small Hall, I'm not sure.

Good point that I hadn't considered. Some of your views take shape early, and my fandom traces to the '70s, possibly the heyday of the 300/500/3,000 benchmarks--wouldn't be surprised if those three numbers were reached more times during the '70s than any decade ever. The other thing that I know had a big influence on me was the MacMillan encyclopedia, where I loved looking at career boxes that had lots of black ink right into and through the 30s. (And where I picked up this weird quirk of favoring players who never had a bad season--including even rookie call-ups of 100 ABs.)

Perhaps I exaggerated by saying that Duke Snider wasn't good past age 30, he was a 1-2 win player partly because of injuries but was still a pale imitation of what he was at his peak. I think his comps basically sum up the quality of player he was, historically speaking.

Another thing: it's almost impossible now for great players to fade away in their 30's like in the old days, because anyone at a superstar level gets a long term FA contract or extension and plays until they get old no matter how bad they are. If Pujols or Miggy had played in an era of one year contracts, they'd probably have finished their careers years ago. It's "easier" for an overpayed veteran to compile stats and pad a HOF resume.

Voting deadline was yesterday, so public votes should step up in the next few days. Rolen and Helton are holding on with a quarter of votes declared, and Wagner's close.

One point for Wagner is his final season, which was better even than Rivera's celebrated final season. I'm going to start a related thread.

Something I didn't know about John Lackey (on the ballot this year): "He is one of only three pitchers — Jack Morris and Bullet Joe Bush being the other two — who started for three different World Series-winning teams."

Obviously came up well short, but that's something. (I used to think of John Lackey and Jon Lester as the Goldschmidt-Freeman of their day.)

when i think of john lackey, i think "salty"

it's not an adjective i use or think of very often. but i heard it all the time with john lackey, and now i do it too

Inside of a week till they announce (Jan. 24). It's going to be close--could be zero, one, two, or three players go in: with ~40% of the votes public, Rolen and Helton are at 79%, Wagner's at 73%. (Jones, only in his sixth year and at 68%, would seem to be in great shape for the future.)

Lackey definitely belongs in the “pitchers who talk to themselves” hall of fame

Baseball gif hall of fame

That actually sounds like a fun thread

Not sure if Mark Fidrych gets in or not; technically he talked to the baseball.

HOF vote updates:

R.A. Dickey and Huston Street now each have one vote

Ballot #170 is from T.R. Sullivan. Helton (+29), Jones (+24), Kent (+27), & Rollins (+4) pick up votes. R.A. Dickey & Huston Street get vote #1. Hunter gets #5. Rolen clears 80% & Kent clears 50%.

His column: https://t.co/LuiktODdZa

In the Tracker: https://t.co/iuMQ5Hl3Rp pic.twitter.com/o6cYVDXWHf

— Anthony Calamis (@tonycal93) January 21, 2023

Actually a good ballot--he's casting symbolic character-counts votes for Dickey and Street. I wouldn't do that--I think it's a legitimate extra credential for a borderline case--but he used all 10 spots, so fine.

Happy announcement eve day to those who lament

might be a shutout this year. Or a no-hitter. Or a strikeout, whatever. Rolen still has a shot

Helton probably has an even better shot. They're both between 79-80%; being the more old-school pick, Helton will presumably pick up more support with the undeclared 50% of voters. (Though I'm not sure if that theory still holds--it may have been more of a PED thing.)

This was Kent's 10 year on the ballot, barely over 50%. He seems like a sure thing first time he comes up with the VC.

Buehrle is sticking around for another year, and he actually is on track to have picked up a decent number of votes, so he might have enough of a cushion to stick around longer after that. He's an interesting case, in a lot of ways. he's definitely in Andy Pettitte territory as a worthy candidate, not Matt Cain territory.

Sheffield has picked up a lot of votes this year, though he'd need a massive jump next year to make it in. I don't see him going the Larry Walker route. Torii Hunter has gained a couple votes but he's still on the edge of falling off. Not stanning for his candidacy, he wasn't as good as Jones at his peak, but obv a great OFer.

It is weird to see Helton w/a net gain of 35 votes and Rolen only w/12. I don't think it'll make a huge difference, if they don't go in this year it'll be next year.

So typical of MLB: you can't just watch this on mlb.com.

Scott Rolen's in! 76.3%

Rolen: 76.3
Helton: 72.2
Wagner: 68.1
Jones: 58.1
Sheffield: 55
Beltran: 46.5
Kent: 46.5
A-Rod: 35.7
Manny: 33.2
Vizquel: 19.5
Pettitte: 17
Abreu: 15.4
Rollins: 12.9
Buehrle: 10.8
K-Rod: 10.8
Hunter: 6.9

I'm surprised just Rolen...I guess that early-declaration theory is null and void.

Helton and Wagner look good to go for 2024. The next ballot will have some names: Beltre, Mauer, Utley. David Wright. Bartolo!

early-declaration theory??

Beltre feels like an easy first balloter to me. Helton for sure next year, I’d think.

i'm guessing Beltre at over 90% and Helton close to 80%. Mauer will have to wait a bit.

Utley is the one who i've got no idea about. huge, huge peak value guy, but didn't get those nice round numbers a lot of writers dig.

(xpost) The theory was, for a few years--more of a fact, actually--that certain kinds of players would get a lot of public votes, then drop off drastically with undeclared voters. Two things that were true of such players: they were very strong analytically, and (almost all) had PED associations. I figured Rolen was the more analytical candidate here, and that Helton would at least keep pace with him, and probably pass him with undeclared voters. But I guess it was just PEDs: voters who wanted to leave Bonds, Clemens, etc. off their ballot didn't want to go public with that.

Ahhhh

Probably as famous as the Magic Bullet Theory and the Worlds Colliding Theory.

Even though only Rolen was elected, there were positive outcomes for a lot of guys, I think a few others will eventually be elected (Helton, Wagner, Beltran, Jones).

I’m a major closer agnostic obv w/r/t the HOF but if you gotta have them in there, gotta have Wagner. He could be the last of them to get in for quite awhile though.

i don’t think Kenley Jansen is that far off tbh. His era etc is a little higher but he’s 40 saves behind and about the same amount of strikeouts. He’s one good season away from having about as good a case as Wagner I feel.

I don’t know, I mean I think w closers the thing that frequently separates the chosen ones from the also-rans is some kind of folk hero status, some kind of “it” factor. and they have to be money their entire career, they can never be sidelined. I don’t think Jansen ever got sidelined iirc but he doesn’t really stand out from the Nathan/Papelbon types beyond the postseason stats. That last bit might be considered a plus but idk, closers really do need some intangibles which add to their legend for people to vote for them.

He’s likely to have a better case than Chapman (postseason meltdowns, abuser) or Kimbrel (occasionally awful and benched)

Something I posted in a different thread, seems pertinent to the last few posts:

true or false baseball challop: not a single one of the modern day closers belongs in the Hall of Fame

I thought Kimbrel/Chapman/Jensen were solid; then they tailed off, and then Josh Hader came along and made what I thought were basically unsurpassable rate stats look a little less awesome. And now Hader may have peaked, although the postseason suggests otherwise.

I think I might be in the minority on this but I really disagree with "unquestionably a Hall of Famer." I think he probably is. I might change my tune when I consider him more. But he's not, like a Mays/Griffey no-brainer here where you skip past the merits of the case entirely.

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) January 25, 2023

i'm not sure he's a hall of famer at all, and definitely not a first vote kind of guy. i should note that i never really saw him play too much since he was always in the AL. but imo he was a no doubt hall of famer until concussions pushed him from catcher. after that, he was a slightly above league average hitter playing DH and 1B with very little power but good OBP

a slightly above league average hitter playing DH and 1B with very little power but good OBP

which is useful, but almost every team has at least one player in AAA who is an above average hitter but limited by their inability to defend anywhere other than 1B, or to play DH. and he hit that point at age 31. if he's a no doubter, than so is david wright. they were both phenomenal in their 20s

yeah I’ve got no problem with mauer particularly, but he’s an interesting case when considered in the context of the changing faces of the hall-eligible…there seems to be an belief gaining currency that players at every position from the modern era deserve serious consideration even if they didn’t really play that much (catchers and closers in particular). it feels pretty inevitable

and maybe that’s fine, particularly with regard to catchers and there not being really any inner circle candidates. like after mauer the next catcher up is gonna be…molina?

oh I guess posey

There are lots of guys getting in for short peak value, which Mauer has obv. Posey as well. There’s probably a lot more sympathy for the grind of being a catcher idk.

Gotta say though that Posey being mentioned constantly as a future HOFer makes me wonder why Thurman Munson has never been revisited, he and Posey were the same player basically and it’s weird that he’s not considered. they have almost the same exact bWAR per 162 games (5.3 for Posey, 5.2 for Munson), slightly more than Mauer (4.8). Molina is 3.1 btw. Very similar career stats, MVP awards, championships, leadership etc.

i'm always kind of amazed that munson isn't in - not just the stats but also his iconic HR, playing with the yankees, his career tragically short

oh wait, the home run was carlton fisk lol