Elon Musk

always wanted something in stainless steel

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2c/Delorean_DMC-12_side.jpg/640px-Delorean_DMC-12_side.jpg

lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlbBJ1UXkAA7e15?format=jpg&name=medium

Ryan @Ryanadambarrett
Replying to @WholeMarsBlog
How soon will it be before we see you in it Omar?

Whole Mars Catalog @WholeMarsBlog
Replying to @Ryanadambarrett
2 weeks

steef (here for the 🛞🔥) @steefenstein
Replying to @WholeMarsBlog and @Ryanadambarrett
You're gonna save so much money on condoms

Catturd2 OTM

the CyberTruck will have a special rolling coal mode that belches particulate matter for the lulz

in true Tesla fashion it will come out the AC vents though

In ten years we'll all have tanks and the road will be open warfare

Wish they were allowed to build it without side mirrors pic.twitter.com/oNLLY8Nbiu

— Tesla and Doge (@TeslaAndDoge) January 1, 2023

They’re required by law, but designed to be easy to remove by owners

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 19, 2021

Fucking dum-dums.

what the shit

...the tyranny of safety

Or basically this dumb thread

People who look over their shoulder to check their blind spot when changing lanes on a motorway, classic or fucking terrifying?

Huh, wonder if (CA) regulators can point to a screenshot of a tweet about evading regulations to keep them off the street?

In the event any of them do ever make it to the road it's going to be a moral imperative to fuck them up at every opportunity.

teslas have the side cameras don't they? so that's probably why all the tesla stans think they don't need side mirrors.

This truck is never coming out.

yeah

So I guess the appeal of these is that fanboys think it looks like some Robocop military vehicle? Is that the deal, like a next-gen Hummer kind of thing? Because they're so objectively ugly and awkward that it's just hard for me to imagine anyone wanting one.

yeah i dont think theyd sell too many of them but theyre good for pr purposes

it's a nerd car for nerds imo, total niche thing, truck guys won't want anything to do with it (especially with the inevitable build quality problems)

Truck guys have already paid for every F150 lightning coming off the line for the next 18 months or whatever

jeez that blind spot thread

it seemed slightly annoying the first time I was in a car that had the little light up "there's a car next to you, dude" indicator on the side mirrors but it makes sense after looking at what people think

obviously a Tesla with side cameras would just say "it's cool it's just a child, merge on"

My car has sensors that beep if I signal or start to pull into a lane that someone's in. I still check my blind spots, but it's a handy failsafe.

Has anyone ever heard of a Tesla window spontaneously cracking on its own? For no reason? I’m sitting in car and this just happened… pic.twitter.com/vRA8hb31En

— Neill Blomkamp (@NeillBlomkamp) January 1, 2023

that's normal

easy over air fix

easy, just remove the windows. they're required by state law but are easy to remove

you must have hit the 'artwork' button, where the window cracks in interesting, creative patterns.

$TSLA 4Q delivs 405.3K vs my expectation of 420.0K and Bloomberg consensus of 420.8K (IR-compiled consensus 418.0K). 4Q production was 439.7K vs my expectation of 436.4K and WS consensus of 438.8K. FY’22 deliveries were +40.3%. pic.twitter.com/YSxv4jQbh3

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 2, 2023

not clear if this is already priced in or not, but seems bad

tbf when it comes to tesla nothing is priced in its lost 3/4 of its value and is still worth more than toyota

these cars rule. they gained just enough sentience to try to kill themselveshttps://t.co/69svr6FYo9

— i bless the rains down in castamere (@Chinchillazllla) January 2, 2023

I love that the people who posted that video were smart and turned comments off.

didn't realize that was district 9 neill blomkamp upthread

not clear if this is already priced in or not, but seems bad

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, January 2, 2023 1:49 PM (one hour ago)bookmarkflaglink

tbf when it comes to tesla nothing is priced in its lost 3/4 of its value and is still worth more than toyota

― lag∞n, Monday, January 2, 2023 1:51 PM (one hour ago)

the way tech stocks are generally valued is based on the potential for future growth, when the economy is in a ZIRP environment tech stocks get out of control because the discount rate for future cash flows is essentially 0% so if your growth trajectory puts you at 10x your revenue in 5 years, that 10x revenue gets priced in today with no discount essentially. you take that and add in the fact that $TSLA was the first meme stock and that was the jet fuel for the stock price going to the moon during the pandemic.

the reason tesla has a larger market cap than toyota despite selling way fewer cars / being a way smaller company is because toyota is a very mature company and they're not growing their revenue at the crazy rate that tesla was (7% year over year vs. 40% for tesla). that, and also being a meme stock.

elon is not... wrong when he says that the fed raising rates is responsible for $TSLA's decline, but it's only one factor and doesn't account for the fact that $TSLA has way underperformed the nasdaq in general and other tech stocks. its growth is slowing, the market for EV is maturing and getting a lot more crowded/competitive, it's not unreasonable to think that $TSLA has crested and the good times are over. it's still got a massive growth % but that % is probably going to get smaller over time, not bigger. i suspect that this Q4 is already being priced in if an analyst on twitter has already published their numbers, but won't know until the official Q4 numbers are released.

telsa was priced for future growth only if you thought they were going to be mining gold on mars

yeah fair it's not just future growth, i didn't feel like getting into it but probably the biggest reason the stock gained so much was due to the fact that it was the most heavily speculated on stock in the S&P 500 during the pandemic via the options market and the rise of retail options trading in general, which led to all sorts of funky behavior. here's a good FT article that goes into some of that: https://archive.ph/twZTK

i think a lot of that air has been let out of the balloon though.

even pre-pandemic and pre-meteoric rise it had a market cap bigger than a lot of automakers at the time e.g. Ford, that's totally due mostly to future growth/ZIRP stock pricing and was the reason it had a bullseye on its back even then for the $TSLAQ people.

obvs theres tons of complicated finalization around it and people hopping on for the ride but i think what happened with teslas stock price qualifies as a genuine mania, theres a bunch investors out there who just believed in elon so fucken much, lol

obvs parallels with crypto except that the story being told about tesla made even less sense

https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/01/03/elon-musks-spacex-valued-at-137-billion-in-latest-funding-round/?sh=10259e2b3b36

andy hory still has a huge crush on musk, shd see if they want to buy twitter

im sure ive complained about this before but the way the business press reports valuations is very silly, those investors almost always have first out provisions in their deals meaning if i bought ten percent of a company for a dollar it would be reported that i valued the company at ten dollars, except that later if the company sold for a dollar i would get... one dollar, that sounds to me more like i valued the company at one dollar, and its also just nonsensical to pretend a company has a value based on relatively tiny private investments no one even knows the details of

btw a bunch of musks reported net worth is based on said valuations

yah it kind of makes sense when someone's net worth is reported based on stock holdings when it's an institutional, long-running stock. there are rare exceptions when something tanks the market, but if you're the founder or major stockholder of some too big to fail corp that's 80% owned by institutional investors, then counting the stock as part of your net worth makes sense

tesla's like 40% individual investors and 15% tesla employees/the board, with the rest split between venture capital and institutional investors -- and the institutional ones have tesla slotted into the volatile gambling bundles, not the long-term stability ones

just total bs

and the space x part of his fortune is even more illusory

first google result says elon owns about half of spacex so thats ~$70b right there, can he actually get that money no of course not

Down 12% today

enjoying the plummeting T$LA stock price as ever^^^ but also vaguely worrying it ends in a plummeting spacex moon-podule full of the first however many* ppl to die in actual real outer space

*ie all of them :(

space x doing manned flights is prob just more musk pr lying, tho i havent actually looked into it, seems like in reality theyre a rocket company

im sure ive complained about this before but the way the business press reports valuations is very silly, those investors almost always have first out provisions in their deals meaning if i bought ten percent of a company for a dollar it would be reported that i valued the company at ten dollars, except that later if the company sold for a dollar i would get... one dollar, that sounds to me more like i valued the company at one dollar, and its also just nonsensical to pretend a company has a value based on relatively tiny private investments no one even knows the details of

― lag∞n, Tuesday, January 3, 2023 10:32 AM (one hour ago)

yeah valuations are silly, but in the private rounds they are also very mathematically factual, as you point out, it's just price paid per share of the company multiplied by total shares outstanding. by first-out provision, i think you mean the liquidation preference. in your example, you'd only get a $1 back if you were the only investor and at the top of the capital stack, if you had co-investors in the same round and the company sold for a $1 you'd be sharing that dollar with those other investors. the term you want is paid-in capital, which I guess is a good proxy if you're a VC with preferred shares. the most accurate accounting way of describing a company's value is shareholder's equity, which is just assets minus liabilities of the company.

the private round valuations are silly, yeah, but by the time a VC funded company goes public they're usually confident that the public IPO price will be well above the last private round. that generally holds true except when it doesn't, i.e. last year when tech stocks cratered and a ton of tech companies started trading below their IPO price and close to or even below their last private funding rounds. but if you were a series A or even series D investor or w/e in google, amazon, etc. those private round valuations weren't silly and you made a ton of money, more than enough to cover your investments in the 100 other start-ups that didn't make it, where you were partially protected by the liquidation pref anyway. VC investing, good business to be in if you can swing it, the incentives are all wrong but who's gonna fix it?

i will fix it just gimmie a min

yah it kind of makes sense when someone's net worth is reported based on stock holdings when it's an institutional, long-running stock. there are rare exceptions when something tanks the market, but if you're the founder or major stockholder of some too big to fail corp that's 80% owned by institutional investors, then counting the stock as part of your net worth makes sense

tesla's like 40% individual investors and 15% tesla employees/the board, with the rest split between venture capital and institutional investors -- and the institutional ones have tesla slotted into the volatile gambling bundles, not the long-term stability ones

just total bs

― mh, Tuesday, January 3, 2023 11:00 AM (forty-seven minutes ago)

net worth never makes sense no matter how blue-chip the underlying stock is for the simple reason that if anybody tried to unload that much stock at once, the price would tank, simply supply/demand microecon 101. but it's a convenient proxy and leads to eye-popping numbers so it's what get used.

tesla's 40% institutional isn't that low tbh, a lot of blue-chips are in the 50% or so range, and blue-chips don't have a ceo that holds 15-25% at any given time due to an outsized (and potentially illegal) comp plan. some institutional investors may hold tesla in "volatile gambling bundles" but keep in mind ever since tesla was added to the S&P 500 a few years ago a ton of index funds were forced to buy tesla, which added a ton of jet fuel to the options bonfire i linked to previously itt. index funds are not volatility traders.