outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

a week ago I flew on 4 flights through 4 airports and went to a toddler's birthday party with like 50 people, I was masked up for the flights but not the party, which was in a very large room w/open doors to outside, nobody got COVID, it feels like a transition (that being said duh I mask on errands still)

Definitely were some actual bugs going around -- my sis's birthday is five days before Christmas, she wanted to have it in a fave bar, fairly close quarters and no outside area, so I went for a bit, kept my mask on and didn't indulge in any drinks or anything. Day before Christmas, I'm at the house with my folks, my sis arrives...masked up, because she and others got a bad cold; her partner was similarly unable to join us this year as a result. (They tested aggressively and it wasn't COVID but I'm sure glad I stuck with my hunch for the birthday.)

I caught some kind of bug in early December: nausea and mild fever. No hint of respiratory ailment (i.e. sore throat, runny nose, coughing), no other symptoms. Weird. Not COVID. So, yes, there's a lotta shit in the air.

my mother got a sinus infection and was uber worried but we got 8 tests through our insurance and it wasn't. but because of her hyperfocus on covid, she hadn't considered sinus infection so after a week of non-improvement we realized she probably needed antibiotics, and it zapped it out right quick.

My whole family had a bad non-COVID cold (multiple negative tests all around) but yeah, still traveling a ton, still lots of eating indoors, all I'm doing for COVID prevention is wearing an N95 when I'm inside and not eating, and I just keep not getting it.

that being said duh I mask on errands still)

Yup. In class and extended spells in public places too.

my two year COVID study was supposed to send me a gift for completing the study and they keep delaying it.

the fuck could it be, a damn statue? if it's a gift card to Friendly's, just give it to me so I can get my damn Fribble already

A picture of Fauci's pubic hairs.

I'll also say that friends and relatives' experiences with Paxlovid have considerably changed perceptions of the disease. All are boosted, it should go without saying.

We just spent around 40 hours on airplanes, more time in airports, restaurants, on public transportation, etc, mostly without masks, and none of us caught anything (afaict). My in-laws made almost the same trip to the same destination a few weeks ago, with much more mask wearing, and both of them tested positive for covid as soon as they got home. They suspect it could have been exposure during a long layover at LAX, during which they let down their guard for a relaxed meal, but at this stage, who knows. Bad timing? Fortunately, despite being in their '70s, they had only mild symptoms for a couple of days. Was that the boosters at work? A weaker strain *not* at work? Again, who knows.

i still have brain fog issues from the v intense bout of covid i just had so good luck to all of you

i'm sorry to hear it, Brad :(

it took about three months for my fog to clear but it did clear eventually, hang in there brad

sorry, Brad.

sorry to hear Brad.

My parents went on a very stupid vacation and my dad “got a cold” in the middle of it— when I asked them whether he had Covid, they told me he hadn’t tested since he’d been sick! I… uh… well, I had some words with them, but despite being intelligent people, a lot of the Boomers I know seem to know little and care less about the facts of epidemiology.

They’re both up to date with vaxes and boosters too. A few months ago my dad said “well we’ll be dead soon anyway, might as well take the risk now” and threw his hands up in the air. I couldn’t even really believe it tbh.

The Food and Drug Administration is proposing a crucial change in the way the coronavirus vaccine is handled: Switching to a once-a-year shot that targets the strain expected to pose the greatest threat during the following winter — a system akin to what is used for the influenza vaccine.

The agency, in briefing documents released Monday for a meeting this week with its vaccine advisers, said evidence suggests that “moving forward, most individuals may only need to receive one dose” of a coronavirus vaccine “to restore protective immunity for a period of time.” The change in strategy will be one of the topics discussed at the meeting, scheduled for Thursday.

The proposed change is designed to reduce the complexity of the vaccine regimen for the public, doctors and manufacturers. It also reflects a view that “chasing variants” with ever-changing booster formulations is ultimately futile, in part because the public has little interest in getting repeated injections, according to a person familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about it.

The FDA would choose the annual strain for the shots every June, in time for the updated shots to be manufactured and then administered in September, as part of a yearly inoculation campaign. The goal would be to select the strain most likely to be dominant in the winter, when people are indoors and covid cases typically rise.

Seems like this was always the way things were going -- lots of people a year ago were like "what, are you going to get a needle in your arm EVERY YEAR FOR LIFE, WHEN WILL THE MADNESS END???" and I've been like, well yeah, I already do that for flu, what's the big deal?

Yeah. I wouldn't mind it being every six months while it's still flaring up pretty regularly, but just making it part of a normal cadence instead of people being confused whether they've got the now-current vaccine or the last vaccine because the communication has been spotty would be nice.

Agreed.

This seems like the right time to make that switchover to treating it like the flu vaccine, especially now that the omicron strain has become so dominant that it will predictably become the basis for all future variants.

I'm going to get a second bivalent boost in late March/early April I figure -- it'll have been six months and that's right before I do some travelling later in April, so given that efficacy does seem to decay regardless, I'd rather be safe than sorry -- but after that I'd be content to just do what I did last September and get bivalent (or whatever) yearly with the flu shot if things seem to have finally turned a relative corner. (Still masking like heck regardless when prudent.)

When I got my second booster in June (pre-bivalent), I got mild resistance at CVS ("But you got the first booster in Sepember!") but I ended up lying about my health. I wonder if we'll see similar nonsense. Considering the pathetic response to the bivalents, I hope not.

Looks like wastewater reports in Florida and California are looking better.

The SF numbers are going down for sure -- my hospital is now finally back in the single-digit amount of patients in care for the first time in at least three months I think.

hospitalizations also dropping significantly in FL last two weeks

however XBB.1.5 is only a small percentage of FL's variant soup, and yet normally you see the increase in cases at the beginning of the variant's emergence as well as when it becomes dominant, so not sure if it's a short hiatus or if that really is 'it' for the wave.

Not an article I wanted to write.

The deadly H5N1 bird flu is spreading widely, including to mammals.

For the first time, it's now likely spreading mammal-to-mammal, among minks which are exceptionally well-suited conduits to humans.

We must act now.https://t.co/aqd2TIqE5V pic.twitter.com/DPpmupOtGo

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) February 3, 2023

ffs

Act now? I can’t even access the article.

It's almost as if she thinks that information that has appeared in a NYT article isn't already sufficiently known to public health officials, and the best way to inform them is to issue a public call to action on her Twitter account. Glad to know she's on the job!

It's a concern but one I have no ability to stop atm and one I have no energy to think about until there is an action I can actually take

It's almost as if she thinks that information that has appeared in a NYT article isn't already sufficiently known to public health officials, and the best way to inform them is to issue a public call to action on her Twitter account.

Government officials are often empowered to act (or prevented from acting) by public sentiment. It seems perfectly possible that public health officials went to Tufekci to ask her to publicize this stuff in order to generate public outcry enabling them to do their job.

RIP, birds.

Government officials are often empowered to act (or prevented from acting) by public sentiment. It seems perfectly possible that public health officials went to Tufekci to ask her to publicize this stuff in order to generate public outcry enabling them to do their job.

― Guayaquil (eephus!)

Aimless?

It seems perfectly possible that public health officials went to Tufekci to ask her to publicize this stuff in order to generate public outcry enabling them to do their job.

I can buy the idea that Tufecki was contacted by Thomas Peacock, the virologist she cited in her tweet, but I greatly doubt the theory that the public health apparatus as a whole needed Tufecki's assistance because otherwise they would be powerless to address the possibility of avian flu making the leap into the human population.

Public health officials have tremendous power which they are already using. According to numbers cited in an article from Jan 17 over 58 million domestic fowl have died because of the avian flu, but the vast majority of them were deliberately killed to prevent its spread within the poultry industry. Officials could easily do the same thing in mink farms and I don't think they'd hesitate if it were required. They've used this same power many times in the past to prevent epidemics among poultry, cattle and swine. It's a basic tool.

I'm not at all sure what additional actions are being suggested. Public health officials are essentially powerless over wild migratory birds. Sure, we could slaughter large numbers of wild birds, but it would not be an effective response, because wild birds are not confined and they can't all be killed, their bodies collected and burned and their habitat disinfected. If the virus jumps to wild mammals presumably we won't even know until it reaches a stage where the increased mortality is obvious. Then you're stuck with the same problem as with wild birds.

Bird Flu Specialist Thomas Peacock is further proof that the simulation is breaking down

!

But what about specialist Thomas Apple TV+?

xp

Not to mention bird flu expert Thijs Kuiken from Rotterdam (kuiken means chick in Dutch).

I'm not at all sure what additional actions are being suggested.

just fyi the column is essentially a list of actions being suggested, none of them include slaughtering wild birds, not sure how you missed that

I don't have a subscription to the NYT and so I don't click on links to the NYT that will just take me to a paywall. If you'd care to name one or two of them I'd be happy to find out what they are.

If you click the link and then put your laptop/phone/whatever into airplane mode you can read the whole article without the paywall popping up

Here's a free link

xp My 2012 Dell desktop running Win7 doesn't have an airplane mode. But thank you just the same.

ty Eazy

in all seriousness, though, Tom Peacock is one of the better resources for virology, he gets cited by just about everybody, and dude is humble and patient (sometimes to a fault) with just about everyone.

there was a while where people would be freaking out about some minor subvariant and tagging him and he'd just calmly say "ehh I don't think it's a big deal", whereas he'd be honest if he thought it was one to watch.

this is helpful
https://archive.ph/

xp to Aimless - just disable Javascript on the Times website to access all articles.

I get my Times off of Napster

The Tufecki article suggests many interesting actions that could be taken, but as I suspected almost all of them rely on truly massive expenditures of money and effort, the creation of entirely capacities that do not exist yet and the expansion of some existing capacities by many orders of magnitude.

This is precisely how an expert scientist would think about the problem and it's an accurate reflection of the scale of global commitment that would be required to most effectively address the prevention of an avian flu pandemic and to minimize its global impact if prevention efforts fail. It is also an accurate reflection of the narrow limitations of expert scientists when it comes to their specialty.

I agree that if all those suggested actions were taken then society would become as protected against an avian flu pandemic as human ingenuity could devise. And all those measures taken in concert still could fail drastically because attempting to control events on a global scale is almost impossibly complex. Or events could simply deliver an outcome where no pandemic happened regardless of our actions. Chance occurrences are outside the province of scientists. They will simply acknowledge them and then have nothing more useful they can say about them.

From that list it seems sensible and possible to shut down mink farming entirely and to expand vaccination and testing efforts among poultry workers. Also, working on an mRNA vaccine should be fully funded. I can't see any of the other actions happening at the scale suggested. But the very scale of those suggested actions are a good indicator of the near-futility of halting a novel and easily communicable pathogen from creating a global pandemic.