hall of fame, next vote...

Not sure if Mark Fidrych gets in or not; technically he talked to the baseball.

HOF vote updates:

R.A. Dickey and Huston Street now each have one vote

Ballot #170 is from T.R. Sullivan. Helton (+29), Jones (+24), Kent (+27), & Rollins (+4) pick up votes. R.A. Dickey & Huston Street get vote #1. Hunter gets #5. Rolen clears 80% & Kent clears 50%.

His column: https://t.co/LuiktODdZa

In the Tracker: https://t.co/iuMQ5Hl3Rp pic.twitter.com/o6cYVDXWHf

— Anthony Calamis (@tonycal93) January 21, 2023

Actually a good ballot--he's casting symbolic character-counts votes for Dickey and Street. I wouldn't do that--I think it's a legitimate extra credential for a borderline case--but he used all 10 spots, so fine.

Happy announcement eve day to those who lament

might be a shutout this year. Or a no-hitter. Or a strikeout, whatever. Rolen still has a shot

Helton probably has an even better shot. They're both between 79-80%; being the more old-school pick, Helton will presumably pick up more support with the undeclared 50% of voters. (Though I'm not sure if that theory still holds--it may have been more of a PED thing.)

This was Kent's 10 year on the ballot, barely over 50%. He seems like a sure thing first time he comes up with the VC.

Buehrle is sticking around for another year, and he actually is on track to have picked up a decent number of votes, so he might have enough of a cushion to stick around longer after that. He's an interesting case, in a lot of ways. he's definitely in Andy Pettitte territory as a worthy candidate, not Matt Cain territory.

Sheffield has picked up a lot of votes this year, though he'd need a massive jump next year to make it in. I don't see him going the Larry Walker route. Torii Hunter has gained a couple votes but he's still on the edge of falling off. Not stanning for his candidacy, he wasn't as good as Jones at his peak, but obv a great OFer.

It is weird to see Helton w/a net gain of 35 votes and Rolen only w/12. I don't think it'll make a huge difference, if they don't go in this year it'll be next year.

So typical of MLB: you can't just watch this on mlb.com.

Scott Rolen's in! 76.3%

Rolen: 76.3
Helton: 72.2
Wagner: 68.1
Jones: 58.1
Sheffield: 55
Beltran: 46.5
Kent: 46.5
A-Rod: 35.7
Manny: 33.2
Vizquel: 19.5
Pettitte: 17
Abreu: 15.4
Rollins: 12.9
Buehrle: 10.8
K-Rod: 10.8
Hunter: 6.9

I'm surprised just Rolen...I guess that early-declaration theory is null and void.

Helton and Wagner look good to go for 2024. The next ballot will have some names: Beltre, Mauer, Utley. David Wright. Bartolo!

early-declaration theory??

Beltre feels like an easy first balloter to me. Helton for sure next year, I’d think.

i'm guessing Beltre at over 90% and Helton close to 80%. Mauer will have to wait a bit.

Utley is the one who i've got no idea about. huge, huge peak value guy, but didn't get those nice round numbers a lot of writers dig.

(xpost) The theory was, for a few years--more of a fact, actually--that certain kinds of players would get a lot of public votes, then drop off drastically with undeclared voters. Two things that were true of such players: they were very strong analytically, and (almost all) had PED associations. I figured Rolen was the more analytical candidate here, and that Helton would at least keep pace with him, and probably pass him with undeclared voters. But I guess it was just PEDs: voters who wanted to leave Bonds, Clemens, etc. off their ballot didn't want to go public with that.

Ahhhh

Probably as famous as the Magic Bullet Theory and the Worlds Colliding Theory.

Even though only Rolen was elected, there were positive outcomes for a lot of guys, I think a few others will eventually be elected (Helton, Wagner, Beltran, Jones).

I’m a major closer agnostic obv w/r/t the HOF but if you gotta have them in there, gotta have Wagner. He could be the last of them to get in for quite awhile though.

i don’t think Kenley Jansen is that far off tbh. His era etc is a little higher but he’s 40 saves behind and about the same amount of strikeouts. He’s one good season away from having about as good a case as Wagner I feel.

I don’t know, I mean I think w closers the thing that frequently separates the chosen ones from the also-rans is some kind of folk hero status, some kind of “it” factor. and they have to be money their entire career, they can never be sidelined. I don’t think Jansen ever got sidelined iirc but he doesn’t really stand out from the Nathan/Papelbon types beyond the postseason stats. That last bit might be considered a plus but idk, closers really do need some intangibles which add to their legend for people to vote for them.

He’s likely to have a better case than Chapman (postseason meltdowns, abuser) or Kimbrel (occasionally awful and benched)

Something I posted in a different thread, seems pertinent to the last few posts:

true or false baseball challop: not a single one of the modern day closers belongs in the Hall of Fame

I thought Kimbrel/Chapman/Jensen were solid; then they tailed off, and then Josh Hader came along and made what I thought were basically unsurpassable rate stats look a little less awesome. And now Hader may have peaked, although the postseason suggests otherwise.

I think I might be in the minority on this but I really disagree with "unquestionably a Hall of Famer." I think he probably is. I might change my tune when I consider him more. But he's not, like a Mays/Griffey no-brainer here where you skip past the merits of the case entirely.

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) January 25, 2023

i'm not sure he's a hall of famer at all, and definitely not a first vote kind of guy. i should note that i never really saw him play too much since he was always in the AL. but imo he was a no doubt hall of famer until concussions pushed him from catcher. after that, he was a slightly above league average hitter playing DH and 1B with very little power but good OBP

a slightly above league average hitter playing DH and 1B with very little power but good OBP

which is useful, but almost every team has at least one player in AAA who is an above average hitter but limited by their inability to defend anywhere other than 1B, or to play DH. and he hit that point at age 31. if he's a no doubter, than so is david wright. they were both phenomenal in their 20s

yeah I’ve got no problem with mauer particularly, but he’s an interesting case when considered in the context of the changing faces of the hall-eligible…there seems to be an belief gaining currency that players at every position from the modern era deserve serious consideration even if they didn’t really play that much (catchers and closers in particular). it feels pretty inevitable

and maybe that’s fine, particularly with regard to catchers and there not being really any inner circle candidates. like after mauer the next catcher up is gonna be…molina?

oh I guess posey

There are lots of guys getting in for short peak value, which Mauer has obv. Posey as well. There’s probably a lot more sympathy for the grind of being a catcher idk.

Gotta say though that Posey being mentioned constantly as a future HOFer makes me wonder why Thurman Munson has never been revisited, he and Posey were the same player basically and it’s weird that he’s not considered. they have almost the same exact bWAR per 162 games (5.3 for Posey, 5.2 for Munson), slightly more than Mauer (4.8). Molina is 3.1 btw. Very similar career stats, MVP awards, championships, leadership etc.

i'm always kind of amazed that munson isn't in - not just the stats but also his iconic HR, playing with the yankees, his career tragically short

oh wait, the home run was carlton fisk lol

Mauer was OK after moving to 1B permanently, but he wasn't a star player anymore. 10 WAR over his last five seasons isn't all that bad.

But at his peak, you could argue he was the best hitting catcher ever. He'll also get credit for signing with his hometown team and staying there his entire career. He'll get elected easily (probably not on the first ballot though).

I mean the reason Munson isn’t in is because the voters at the time cared a lot more about career home runs and hits etc than peak value. And he wasn’t like Koufax-good enough to get a pass at the time for the shorter career.

yeah he definitely falls shy in those old-school standards. just curious if they'll ever bring him around again for consideration.

Koufax also had a remarkable postseason resume, just crazy good.

I'm thinking Mauer gets in on his second or third ballot.

Salvador Perez is another interesting current catcher who might have HOF prospects. But it's hard to say, it's a thin line for him between winding up another Lance Parrish, or a Yadier Molina with power.

is beltran not getting 50% due to the sign stealing or

I don't think he was ever a first ballot guy but yes definitely

is there any kind of philosophical split between HOF nominators who look at all pitchers (SP and RP) based on the same criteria and all other players based on the same criteria, versus nominators who compare catchers only to other catchers and RPs only to other RPs and make their choices that way? i'm thinking about it like how the oscars lump all movies together and so you have people trying to compare the merits of "all quiet on the western front" vs "everything everywhere all at once" versus the ebert philosophy of judging a movie based on how well it accomplishes what it is trying to do. i don't know if this makes any sense.

it seems obvious that if you're judging for example buster posey's worthiness as a HOFer you should be comparing him to all other catchers, but then the HOF ballot has everyone lumped together so the implication is you're comparing posey to all the other players nominated that year regardless of their position

it does make sense! i think there are both, along with many other splits in approach. there are also some people who make a habit of maxing out their ballot, selecting 10 players even if they're kind of iffy after a few of them, while there are others that will only vote for a handful (or less) and leave the rest of the ballot blank

I think comparing to other players at the same position makes sense to an extent, but my personal opinion is that there is not all positions have players who, on their own, provide the same value. relief pitchers are the obvious example, they’re akin to role players or a sixth man in the NBA; occasionally you will have a special case like manu ginobili or mariano rivera, but generally these players play less and provide less value, and (imo crucially) are *selected* for these roles because they would not be able to handle a bigger load

catchers aren’t quite the same, and philosophies are going to differ, but there is a similar argument to be made that shorter careers and fewer innings just simply means less value. and something that I feel isn’t said enough is that generally teams will try to have their top catching prospects switch positions for this reason, to extend their career — bryce harper is the most obvious example. so it stands to reason that the talent pool of the catchers that remain isn’t as strong as like, shortstops

Jaffe's JAWS system for the HOF is based on the idea that you compare positionally--although I don't think the implication is that you need all positions represented equally.

again — different philosophies, but is it not? the average JAWS for a center fielder (of which there are 19) is 58.1, and that’s not including trout. for the 16 catchers, it’s 44.2

if one takes it to its logical extension, there is a lower bar to entry for catchers (and certainly relief pitchers)